DthRdrX

I'm wondering if there is any upside to Marvel/employees for crossing that number. I can't see it staying in past next weekend.

RichC2

Actual for Solo was $103,016,812 for the 4-day.

Decker

I went to see Infinity War for a second time yesterday at 1PM since I had nothing to do, the family was out for the day and I hadn't used my Movie Pass on it yet. I figured that a month after its release I would be able to watch in a nice, cool near-empty theater. Nope, it was totally full. I had to sit in the very front row, crane my neck and look up everyone's nostrils.

That movie has LEGS!

movieguru

It loooks like Solo won't make $300M domestic at the box office. It may be possible at this point that it won't even gross as much as Justice League when it's all done.

RichC2

It looks like it will land somewhere between Justice League ($229m) and Captain America: Winter Soldier ($259m).

The issue with Justice League is it was supposed to be WB's Avengers ($623m domestic), but flamed out faster than all the sub-movies (WW, Suicide Squad and both Superman movies) despite opening a week before Thanksgiving. Solo shouldn't have that same expectation, but almost seems like it has an even bigger one for some reason.

TheMovieman

Because it's Star Wars, who most (myself included) thought was infallible. Also consider the budget was probably $350-400M with marketing (probably around the same as JL, no coincidence both receive major reshoots) and likely won't touch $500M WW (and since we're doing comparisons, even Justice League got to $657M WW). And it's not like Solo had toxic reviews, while tepid they still were fairly kind.

RichC2

Those advertising costs just don't seem right to me, though that is what gets widely reported. Kinda ridiculous.

But yeah that's a fair breakdown, budget it way too high for what it is.

DthRdrX

Yikes

TheMovieman

Yeah, probably looking between $26-30M second weekend.

JeremyM

The second week numbers are probably more disastrous than the first week, really. I thought it would have decent legs.

TomOpus

I don't think word-of-mouth has been great.

JeremyM

I noticed a few years back with Spectre that it suddenly had a strong weekend, strangely after the DVD release, which got it past the $200 million mark. There must be some kind of cache involved in hitting those round numbers.

I'll be curious to see if Disney can push Wrinkle in Time past $100 million. It'll be close. I don’t think Rampage will get there. I think Black Panther will make it to $700M.

TheMovieman

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Solo: A Star Wars Story	BV	$29,296,000	-65.3%	4,381	-	$6,687	$148,888,692	-	2
2	2	Deadpool 2	Fox	$23,325,000	-46.3%	4,161	-188	$5,606	$254,652,438	$110	3
3	N	Adrift	STX	$11,510,000	-	3,015	-	$3,818	$11,510,000	$35	1
4	3	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$10,371,000	-40.0%	3,570	-198	$2,905	$642,869,932	-	6
5	4	Book Club	Par.	$6,800,000	-32.5%	3,169	+359	$2,146	$47,316,748	-	3
6	N	Upgrade	BH Tilt	$4,458,000	-	1,457	-	$3,060	$4,458,000	-	1
7	5	Life of the Party	WB (NL)	$3,455,000	-35.8%	2,511	-426	$1,376	$46,300,630	-	4
8	6	Breaking In (2018)	Uni.	$2,815,000	-34.3%	1,682	-303	$1,674	$41,346,015	$6	4
9	N	Action Point	Par.	$2,315,000	-	2,032	-	$1,139	$2,315,000	$19	1
10	8	Overboard (2018)	PNT	$1,975,000	-37.0%	1,228	+32	$1,608	$45,523,194	-	5
11	9	A Quiet Place	Par.	$1,780,000	-26.9%	1,156	-368	$1,540	$183,529,198	$17	9
12	7	Show Dogs	Global Road	$1,550,794	-52.5%	2,327	-885	$666	$14,626,275	-	3
13	10	RBG	Magn.	$1,100,000	-14.6%	432	+17	$2,546	$7,875,859	-	5
14	11	Rampage (2018)	WB (NL)	$598,000	-29.2%	502	-186	$1,191	$95,089,209	$120	8
15	17	First Reformed	A24	$455,435	+56.0%	91	+62	$5,005	$1,057,231	-	3

Defiant1

Yikes, Solo is going to be the first Star Wars movie to lose money.

TheMovieman

It's entirely possible it will drop to #3 next weekend if Deadpool 2 has a good hold.

skywalker8

I am absolutely fascinated with movies that end up in the 92-97 million range that get pushed over the 100 mark. And equally fascinated with the ones that fall short. If you look at the all-time domestic box office ranking on box office mojo you find very few films that made between 95-99 million.
Disney (and other studios too I’m sure) will often pair a shortcomer with a big title at the drive in. People will come for the big new title but the revenue will be split. They did this to get Tangled over the $200 mark many months after it came out, and I imagine this will happen with Wrinkle in Time later this summer.
For Bad Teacher, I remember it got very close to $100 million and a week before it hit DVD it was shown for “free” at theaters across the country, but the admission values were counted towards its box office, allowing it to crawl past the milestone.
For Passengers, Sony had sneak previews for the third Smurfs movie that counted towards its ticket sales. The studios have many tricks up its sleeves.
Gnomeo and Juliet is one that cracks me up. Disney kept it going for weeks and weeks but finally gave up on it, and I think it’s the highest grossing film not to hit $100m.

JeremyM

Fascinating. I wondered what some of their tricks were. I definitely see some shenanigans coming up with a few movies on the edge...

Looks like they tried the same thing with Gnomeo that they executed with Tangled and fell just short, exactly like you said.

Defiant1

Black Panther is the latest example of this (on a much larger scale). It's currently at $699,194,100. It made about $200,000 last weekend. Disney is trying like hell to get it past $700M, but it won't get there on its own. Note that it has been available on home video for awhile now as well. Maybe Disney can pair it with Ant-Man 2 at the drive-in when that comes out to get it over that magic line.

JeremyM

A Wrinkle in Time is at $98 million now. Wonder if they will pair it with Ant-Man 2 as well? I can remember our drive-in sometimes playing three films a night.

We are actually getting a new drive-in theater here. Last film I saw at the old one here was Signs. Truthfully, nostalgia aside, it wasn't a great movie-going experience. I can't remember what the second film was, but with the heat and the bugs, my wife was over it by then.

Obi-Wanma

Are there really enough drive in theaters left in the US for something like that to make a dent? There's exactly one in my area, and it's 40 minutes away.

dex14

JeremyM

Probably enough of a dent for movies that are at the precipice, when coupled with other tricks--it sounds like it's just one of the gimmicks they use to push a movie over, though we all seem to be at a loss as to what the actual point of it is besides some nebulous bragging rights.

Defiant1

Yep, it's all about the bragging rights. In the case of BP, only two movies in history have grossed over $700M domestic, and Disney wants the 3rd one. Eight movies have grossed over $600M, and six of those were in the last six years, so that's a much less exclusive club.

I guess there are also discount second-run theatres that can help add to the total.

RichC2

Ocean's 8 pulled $4m in previews last night, current tracking through Friday has it opening at $40m - $42m -- a new high for the Ocean's franchise (unadjusted)

Solo looks to be landing at #2 with $15m, down 49%.

Hereditary is poised to take 3rd place with $13.5m, but after its strong tracking may end up in 2nd ahead of Solo.

Hotel Artemis is bombing with $271k in previews and $1.25m for Friday -- a $3.5m opening for the weekend is likely (I think it'll go higher but still pretty horribly).

fumanstan

Now i'm intrigued on seeing if it'll make it.