Listen, Anyone hear that ? No ? It's the smallest violin playing for Tom Cruise.

Spidey 3 may break POTC2's record, but POTC3 will come right back and break Spidey 3's record.

I may be in the minority but I don't think PotC3 will have the demand PotC2 had.

It'll have a whole three weeks to make that money and keep that record before Pirates 3 comes out at the end of May and crushes that one.

Wow, 3 weeks? Im already looking forward to next summer. POTC, Spidey, and Transformers.

did anybody notice the low drop off % for many of the other movies (except Superman and Garfield 2)

It seems sold out shows of POTC2 helped

Don't forget shrek 3, ocean's 13, ratatouille, harry potter, and the simpsons movie.

Grindhouse opening in mid april is nice as well.

WOW - this movie utterly crushed Superman. It's only been out 3 days and it's already storming past it's box office. Hell, it made more in one day than Superman made all weekend. Then again Superman is a reboot of a franchise, and it couldn't have come out at a worse time.

After Ocean's 12, I don't really see there being much demand for O13. The others are fair game, tho I don't think the Simpsons movie will be huge (don't get me wrong, I love the Simpsons, but considering the state of the TV show these past few seasons...)

You are. The end of PotC2 has just about everyone chomping at the bit.

Well, thanks for speaking on behalf of about everyone. PotC2 will be the years top grosser, impressive numbers all around. Always good to see a movie prove the MPAA wrong. I figure a 52 - 58% drop for next weekend, which places it around $55 - $65m next weekend and about 8 - 12m everyday for Mon - Thurs, which is insane. (I'm terrible at calculations like that though, so I'm prolly off by a bit, but we'll see)

I've heard from about equal number of people - those that loved it and would love to see it again, and those that thought it just dragged entirely too much. It either really connected, or it didn't at all. Tomatometer seems to be perfect for it this time around.

As for me, I'm more surprised at how well liked it is rather than at its success (which I've been anticipating for a while, and reports in the last few weeks that had it tracking above Spider-man just solidified it.) But as I've said before, thats nothing new... Spider-man and Shrek 2 continue to mystify me. Lacked that much needed movie magic I suppose (for me).

Nice to see that amazing number for POTC2.

Considering Batman Begins had hardly no hype behind it, and Batman and Robin was still fresh in everyone's mind, everybody was a little skeptical of BB.

Now that everybody knows the Batman franchise is in good hands again, I can see a big B.O. for the sequel.

I'm not sure how you can say the Tomatometer is perfect in gauging the public opinion (if that is what you are saying, maybe you mean the movie is a 52% in your opinion). IMDB has 4040 votes and is still at 7.9. That 7.9 does not indicate an even split. Even if you factor in the Average Rating at RT it's only at 6, almost 2 points lower than the IMDB. Also it has a B+ on BOM.

I'm really not following your logic there. Are you just basing it on things you've heard from people you personally know? Anecdotal evidence is the weakest thing you could use. IMDB isn't much better but atleast it is a wider more varied selection. Next week will truly show what public opinion is and if the critics got this one right. For now though, it looks like they are off base.

You're right. The difference between having 3yrs between films and 10 months will be obvious. Just look at the Matrix... (the difference here is that I'm assuming everyone is enjoying the 2nd installment and looking forward to a 3rd.) Still I'd expect a 20% drop for the 3rd...which will still give it great numbers, but c'mon to think it'll be bigger is unrealistic. I suspect Spidey 3 will be bigger (though no record-setter).

My God looking at the releases next summer...almost every one is a sequel....

I'm going off my own sample of people, that's all. It's nothing official, and I could care less what IMDB and BOM have it rated as, as they rarely reflect the general population (good example being Lost in Translation). I'm comparing that 52% seems right with the sample that I've taken, whereas about half loved it, half didn't. Simple. The meter usually doesn't gauge that well, but occasionally it's on, as it is this time.

Find all the faults in the logic if you want. I am kind of curious what the Cinemascore was for it though, those tend to be a good indicator of where a movie is headed (in terms of big movies).

Yeah, sequels to well liked movies are about the only sure things Hollywood has anymore.

The Matrix sequels aren't even in the same ball park to be put next to the pirates franchise right now. Not only is the rating and issue with the film, but the general acceptance of the film is vastly different. I wouldn't put any sort of % drop between the second and third film for pirates. Sure the time difference didn't work for Matrix but that's mainly due to the film failing for the vast majority.

If anything, I would compare this with Empire Strikes Back/Return of the Jedi. In that case the third made a bit more than the second. With how much folks seem to enjoy this regardless of the minority here stating the otherwise it will be a good lead in to the third film. Especially with a DVD out at around the time or a couple of months before hand to pump up folks more.

The competition will be a bit tougher next year. Spider-Man 3 will still be fresh and Shrek 3 opens on May 18th, a week before POTC. Ocean's 13 is out June 8th, and Fantastic Four 2 is out on June 15th. I think the shorter time frame between 2 and 3 will hurt a little, but I think it's safe to say part 3 can still achieve $275+ million.

Did I not mention that in my original post? Even despite acceptance it will simply not make as much.

I'd say more but I don't want to start sounding like one of the regulars here... that and I'm off to see the movie.

^^^ Yeah, you mentioned that but for that reason alone Matrix fuck up shouldn't even be mentioned in this thread.


That's the thing. Pirates will be in the same position it is now. It's right behind a super hero film with enough time that the weekly drop off rate wont be to much of an issue when it opens and Shrek 3 will capture a lot of kids attention but it those same folks who watched both spider-man and shrek will be ready for Pirates.

Ocean's 13 isn't really a big threat to pirates and Fantastic Four will have a small drop off to some degree from the first because of the general quality of the film.

For the most part I don't see why the shorter time frame between 2 and 3 will hurt it. It's still fresh in everyones mind and DVD will be out around then to keep it freshier. Folks will be pumped for a resolution/return of jack so it should be pretty well recieved.

I can't see Batman doing it. Not enough appeal IMO.

Spidey 3 could do it but I doubt it, because as another poster said there were some people that didn't like Spidey 2. However, there are plenty of fanboys that will see it up to 3 times in the first weekend.

POTC 3 will definatly not break the record. I know enough people (myself included) that thought that Dead Man's Chest was just decent. I don't plan on seeing the third in the first weekend because I'm honestly not anticipating it as much. I think there are many people that agree with me.

Holy shit. I've not had a chance to check out the box office takes this weekend. Pirates mopped up! I'm sure it'll have a huge drop this weekend, but it'll probably still break $200 million this weekend alone. That's amazing.

okay so 92% . A- isn't bad, the original got an A. By comparison, Supes Returns got a B+, and the Hulk got a B-.

So POTC2 took twice what everything else on the top 30 list did combined eh?

I feel sorry for the bastards watching it on tv later.. its so a bigscreen movie if there ever was one. Go Johnny!

Agreed. While tons of people enjoyed it, I saw a LOT of people after both screenings I went to who were underwhelmed and pissed off. I doubt they'll be rushing out to Pirates 3, so I doubt the opening weekend will be as huge.

I also think Spider-Man 3 has a shot at beating it...I'd at least like to see it get close. I know the trailer has had people cheering and I'm sure the hype will only build.

132million is pretty damn staggering, but I think next weekend it will dip pretty huge...I'd like to see it hang in there, but I don't think it'll crack the 70mil some have mentioned...we'll see.

And sure it outgrossed M:i-III in one weekend...but that's certainly not an indication of the films quality...whatever.

MATT