WeeBey

We know what happens when to physical media when it declines because we’ve seen it with CDs. Really popular stuff continues to be released on CD (just check out your local Walmart) but the niche stuff goes all digital. I think the only exception has been huge classical music box sets which continue to be released on CD from time to time.

WeeBey

A 50% decline over 4 years and 15% over last year isn’t great either tbh.

bruceames

I wouldn't bet on it. UHD already has a 12% share of BD sales, while Blu-ray only had a 5% share after two years and 9% after three years. And yes Blu-ray is still being outsold by DVD, but it's at nearly 44% now. So if it's inevitable that Blu-ray will outsell DVD, while having a price premium and never having the depth of titles, why can't same be said about UHD? Especially considering that it's off to a better start.

Coral

UHD-BDs are more expensive than DVDs and BDs, so that helps it have a higher percentage.
In Canada, UHD-BDs can be anywhere from $10-$20 more expensive than the same title on BD.

When you take into account the average price of each format, DVDs have an even higher market share based on units sold.

UHD-BD will never come close to surpassing BD, let alone DVD.
The only reason BD is gaining ground on DVD is because less people are buying DVDs altogether.
The overall market for physical discs will continue to decline.

bruceames

Less people are buying BD's too. You really haven't said anything that refutes why the UHD share won't keep gradually gaining ground until it overtakes Blu-ray. What is going to stop it?

E Unit

I was calling out the "161%" on streaming that you mentioned. Overall, there's nothing on the graph you posted that called out what hasn't been talked about for years already.

Josh-da-man

Probably a lack of titles?

Maybe as UHD sales creep up we'll see more catalog titles and tv series get the UHD treatment, but now it seems like the format is mostly limited to new release movies and A-list catalog movies.

Blu-ray is already struggling with catalog titles (most now limited to boutique labels like Criterion and Shout/Scream) and tv releases are dwindling. If this stuff has a limited market on blu-ray, I don't see UHD filling that gap.

I think UHD will probably grow in marketshare, but I doubt it will overtake blu-ray. DVD is still outselling blu-ray.

slop101

This. Besides a couple Criterions a year, and a couple new movie releases, I have all I want in HD in my "library", so my purchasing has dropped WAY down, to maybe 5 titles a year, when it used to be that much a week - and I'm someone who buys shit!

bruceames

The ratio of UHD/BD releases is roughly proportional to BD/DVD. Even now DVD release 4 times as many titles. That's why it's still around. But still, that doesn't stop Blu-ray from gaining market share every year, as most of the sales are actually from releases they have in common. Catalog sales revenue make up perhaps a third of BD sales at most, probably much less. One high profile BD title can outsell all the combined catalogs for six months.

Yes DVD is still outselling Blu-ray but that won't be the case 1-2 years from now.

So why wouldn't the same hold true of UHD? What is going to stop it from increasing market share until it too, overtakes its predecessor, given that most sales are from new and recent releases, and that a huge release disadvantage hasn't stopped Blu-ray from the inevitability of overtaking DVD?

Gizmo

Blu-rays didn't include DVDs for the first 4 years (IIRC). Now they do, along with a digital copy.

Its a very different world and trying to compare Blu-ray sales % from 13 years ago to today is really unrealistic.

Not to mention the casual buyer has stopped buying in droves.

bruceames

So what is going to stop UHD from overtaking Blu-ray? Sure it's a different world and disc market share is going down. But that's affecting all formats, so they are in the same boat.

If you recall, most sales from BD back in the day were from titles that included a DVD. Now it's common for both format to include a UV/DC, which probably helps sales of course. On both formats (and DVD, whenever it's included).

Question on DVDs with a digital copy included: is that DC usually HD?

bruceames

The only case I can see where UHD doesn't overtake BLu-ray is if the format outright fails. That is, if sales starting tanking at a faster rate than BLu-ray. I can't see that happening, given the support it has in the industry and its growth rate thus far. At it matures, more titles will come to the format just as it did with Blu-ray. Although sales will never be what they were at Blu-ray's peak, remember that Blu-ray sales peaked at less that a quarter of DVD's peak. And here we are with Blu-ray at a 44% share and still increasing every year.

Last year UHD's share of BLu-ray ended up at 6.7%. After the first quarter this year, it's at 12.3%.

morriscroy

I agree.

The only scenario I can think of offhand for outright failure, would be if it turns out that the 4Kbluray discs manufactured so far, turn out to suffer from premature rotting and/or bronzing.

Basically something similar to 2014 fiasco of Criterion and WellGo bluray discs going bad due to premature bronzing. (Mostly discs manufactured by Sonopress/Arvato at their north carolina plant, which not surprisingly closed down production in 2015).

Coral

One factor that will hurt people's entry into UHD-BD is the extra money required.

BD was released when 1080p TVs were already out and growing (the whole "flat-panel attraction was huge).

Even though a good chunk of TVs out now support 4k, there are a shit-ton of TVs in homes right now that are only 1080p. These people would need to purchase new TVs as well as 4K players to take advantage... and then pay more money for a UHD-BD movie... all in a time where streaming continues to become more and more popular and people laugh at the use of physical discs.

Sure, people had to buy BD players to take advantage back then, but now people are expected to already jump fro DVD players, to BD players and now 4k players? It's a little much.
And Sony knows what's going on - hence why they didn't even release include a 4k player in their PS4 Pro. Sony!

What we're seeing now is still the early-adopterish phase of UHD-BD. These are the people keeping it afloat. But it will never gain traction to hit the levels of DVD or BD. UHD-BD could eventually surpass BD in sales - but that will only be because BD and physical discs in general have declined a huge amount. A bigger share of a much smaller market isn't anything to brag about.

BestBuy understands the trend with physical formats. They're not constantly shrinking their movies section for no reason.

bruceames

I never said UHD will be a big as Blu-ray was. Probably will be lucky to get 1/3 the sales, simply because the market is shrinking. Obviously once UHD passes BD, it will mostly be due to BD shrinking rather than UHD growing. By the time it happens, UHD sales will be declining too. But it will still gain market share because BD will be declining faster. Blu-ray is declining now around 5 percent a year, but it still gains market share on DVD because that format is now declining around 20 percent a year.

DVD sales peaked in 2006 at nearly $14 billion, while Blu-ray's peak was only around $2.5 billion. Now DVD has shrunk down to less than $3 billion. So as UHD sales grow, Blu-ray sales will shrink and eventually the lines will cross. Maybe 10 years, maybe more or less. But the lines will cross.

PhantomStranger

I'm not sure that UHD ever surpasses BD in sales. I see the two formats eventually splitting the remaining home video market.

JimRochester

With Tv's not lasting nearly as long as they used to and decent 55" 4K TV's for $399 I don't think it will take long.

morriscroy

For every person who is buying a new 4K tv after their old flatscreen died, how many are also buying a 4Kbluray disc player?

For that matter, how many are skipping new disc players altogether and just going straight to flat rate VOD service through their cable service and/or online ?

bruceames

Another thing to consider is, as the disc market shrinks from mass market (where the average consumer still thinks DVD is good enough) to niche (dominated by the Super Fan, or, audio/videophile) those remaining loyal to disc will be more discerning on quality and perhaps accelerate the shift to the best quality disc format. While the rest gravitate to streaming as their first choice.

JimRochester

Even as a lover of 4K, it isn't imperative for me. If there is a DVD and a BR, I will pick the BR every time no hesitation. For new releases I am happy to spend the extra $5 or so for 4K. But for catalog titles especially those that aren't spectacles, I really have to evaluate. As I replace my old DVD's and HD DVD's, if the BR is pretty close and cheaper I'm fine owning the BR.

bruceames

Same here. I don't watch the new releases as much as most others and so tend to watch more of the older and more obscure stuff that's not available on UHD (and in many cases, Blu-ray either). Blu-ray looks perfectly fine to me and if it's still only available on DVD then it still looks acceptable most of the time (it helps to have a great DVD upscaling player like the Oppo 203).

rw2516

This. If you subscribe to the theory that in the end only audio/video enthusiasts will still be buying physical media, then titles available in UHD will only sell in that format. Nobody will want the BD or DVD. Titles not available in UHD will continue to sell in the highest quality format available. Even the diehards will still buy DVD if that's the only format it's ever been available in.

morriscroy

If the diehards are not buying certain genres, then will they still go dvd-only without any bluray or 4Kbluray releases at all?

For example, will romantic comedies, documentaries, fitness, kids shows (ie. barney, dora, peppa, etc ...), lousy D-list action films, etc ... go the direction of dvd-only ?

bruceames

It's the titles that still linger on DVD-only, or those future releases that come to DVD-only, that the diehards will buy because that's the only physical format that they are available on. There isn't any kind of trend where obscure releases are increasingly being released on DVD-only. On the contrary, title output per year is declining on DVD while holding fairly steady on BD. So there are fewer DVD-only releases these days.

rw2516

Concerning new from the theaters releases? If only diehards are buying discs nobody would be buying the DVDs either. I assume people not interested in discs would stream the stuff if they want to see it.