Iron_Giant

I know this subject has been beaten to death, but here are some more stats to show how the DVD sales have shrunk.

Avatar - DVD Sales
Released on DVD: April 22, 2010
DVD Units Sold: 8,108,722
Consumer Spending: $141,803,418
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/AVATR-DVD.php


Transformers - DVD Sales
Released on DVD: October 16, 2007
DVD Units Sold: 16,099,839
Consumer Spending: $290,740,022
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/TFORM-DVD.php


Different movies, but the same type of people purchase the movies. True, Avatar BR also put a DVD in it, so that most likely changed the number a bit. The economy has not help the issue, but BR keeps increasing in it's sales stats. In another 3 years will DVDs on it's death bed? If "Sherlock Holmes" can only sell 2,500,999 on DVD in 2010, I cannot imagine what a similar movie in 2013 is going to sell. At some point the studios are going to say enough, and only sell new movies on Blu-ray. That point may be in 2014/2015.


2010 - http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/annual/2010.php


2007 - http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/annual/2007.php

It really surprised me how much the DVD sales have fallen for new titles, even the #20 titles from each year has a big difference in sales and profit.

Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief
Released on DVD: June 29, 2010
DVD Units Sold: 1,504,877
Consumer Spending: $28,470,876


Hairspray
Released on DVD: November 20, 2007
DVD Units Sold: 5,396,184
Consumer Spending: $104,084,164

BuckNaked2k

While Blu-ray sales have increased year-over-year, its total market share remains around 10%-15% per week, with Avatar being the major caveat.

Of course this 10%-15% of market share is achieved with fewer than 3,000 titles out of a Universe of over 115,000 titles.

BryKasch

I think until players get the issues ironed out I don't think your going to see as much of a explosion for a couple years still, companies are relying to much on firmware updates, and studios are still causing headaches with releases, though they are getting better. Price points for players are hitting that 100 magic number and most new wide release titles are getting to that 19.99 or so price point. Unfortunately a lot of titles are closer to the 30 dollar range. I think in a couple years it will be more closer to killing dvd.

Lastdaysofrain

One of the issues for me (aside from price) is that I generally don't buy new movies, ie movies recently released. The number of blu ray catalog titles is so small, I think I own just about everything I want.

Brian Shannon

Aren't they all dvd's?

tonyc3742

Is the Transformers number since release date, or only calendar year 2008? If so, Avatar has only been out for four months, versus the 12 CY months for Transformers.

Also, stipulating that DVD sales are slower, is it primarily because the market is being cannibalized by BD, or is it the alternatives - Netflix renting, Redbox renting, legal VOD, AppleTV/itunes, etc?

Plus the general economic conditions might drive people to rent instead of buy or not partake at all, more than in 2007.

142 million in four months doesnt sound bad to me - of course, more corporations say if they don't make more than they did last year, they've 'lost' money.

Anubis2005X

No, DVDs are DVDs, Blu-ray discs are Blu-ray discs. There is no such thing as a Blu-ray DVD...

Gizmo

There are several reasons why Blu-ray sales figures rise and DVDs fall.

Selling DVD SKU's that include a BD but having it counts towards BDs numbers (Toy Story 1/2, Disney Classics, many others).

Offering stores (big)rebates to order more BD/DVD/DC combos (and guaranteed refunds if they don't sell in x amount of time)

Cutting Special Features from DVDs and having them appear on BDs only

Avatar sucked. That's why it's numbers are in the crappier

Some other reasons, but there is no real point in discussing them here. We can even see how Blu-ray has failed studio expectations by the lack of catalog releases in 2010 by three major studios, packing in DVD copies with almost every new release, packing in DC with almost every new release, re-packaging catalog BD with DVDs etc.

But eh. I'm just a hater anyone

kefrank

If you click on the link, you'll see that it's since release date, so it's not an entirely fair comparison.

There's no doubt that DVD sales continue to fall, but the numbers compared in the OP aren't entirely valid. If you just compare the first ten weeks of Transformers vs. Avatar, it's roughly 12.8M to 7.5M units sold. As the OP mentions, the Avatar BD was sold with a DVD, so even comparing the same time since release date isn't entirely valid. Nor is comparing the full year 2007 overall sales to the YTD 2010 sales.

I think the bottom line is that DVD revenues remain in decline, as they have for years now. Blu-ray revenues are certainly increasing, though not at a rate that is filling in as much of the gap as the studios would probably like.

I think perhaps what everyone is slowly realizing is that DVD created a brief bubble in the home video market, where the market was ripe for sales of just about every kind of title. For a few years, people were just much more into buying movies than ever before, due to a perfect storm of factors. The studios started to bank on that level being maintainable indefinitely, but it has proved to be more of an anomalous blip in the market than a true, long-term shift.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi

Which is fine if you don't consider that BR sales went up and cost more.

milo bloom

Netflix has been a big factor in our household, plus the fact that we've kinda reached our critical mass. There's just not a whole lot of "must have" titles anymore, plus we just don't always have the extra money.

And that goes for everybody really, keep in mind we're still crawling out of a recession that damn near became another depression. Even though entertainment generally holds onto some of it's numbers during times like these, they're still going to feel the squeeze.

Mr. Cinema

For total marketshare, I think BD can get close to 50% eventually, as in a few more years. But it's looking more and more like BD/DVD/digital will all own a decent % of the market. Re-releasing older catalog titles and adding in the DVD tells you exactly that the studios know that BD isn't the savior after all for home video like they were hoping. Their plan of everyone going out and replacing every single DVD with a $25 premium BD price went out the window some time ago.

Part of that was the economy, which caused people to hold on to their cash. But people are becoming less interested in owning and are just settling for streaming/renting. As long as they make their profits, I'm not sure the studios are going to be too upset. I'm cutting back on buying as well. Way too many titles get watched once and then collect dust.

BuckNaked2k

A very weak slate of releases this week, but still.....9%?

Coral

Unfortunately for the studios, BD's increased sales aren't offsetting DVDs plumetting sales.

Without BD in the picture, DVD sales were on their way down and would continue that way anyways.

The pie-charts shows the problem. DVD sales are plumetting and BD had a slight increase from last year - yet BD still only accounts for 9% of revenue?

I remember the predictions that by the end of 2009 BD sales would account for 50% of movies sales. We're close to the end of 2010 and they're not even close to that.

Gizmo

I remember when someone here (guess who) claimed BD players would replace 90% of DVD players by mid 2009. Studios are now banking on 3D, even though the glasses version has failed (Toshiba and Sont working on a classless version).

Artman

First thing I thought of - similar to digital downloads not offsetting album sales declines, just saw a chart on that today (over at NPR).

Primarily I think it's just people already owning the majority of the movies they like. That leaves most of the sales to new releases. Sure you'll get some buyers on the re-releases and Blu-rays but not nearly as many as that first time around.

And most have probably wised up to buying too much from the early days of DVD's... at some point you look at them all and realize it's too much, and you trade in, and cut back on purchases going forward.

Matthew Chmiel

I like this set of reasoning.

For most people, owning a copy of a film on DVD is "good enough" for them because most don't have the set-ups we do. Some might, but they're not as technically inclined as we are. Granted, people like us want our favorite films on Blu-ray with a top-notch 1080p transfer, lossless audio and a plethora of extras. I know that's what I want, however, the general public doesn't think in that mindset. They can't justify the "extra cost" to upgrade their DVD copy to a Blu-ray copy.

I look at my DVD collection right now and I look at some of the random shit that I purchased, and with some titles, the prices that I paid. There's quite a few titles I do regret purchasing and when I do a trade-in at Zia or sell them online, I'm getting little money back from the initial investment I made. Example: a new release comes to DVD and sells for $15-20 on it's street date, but in less than 90 - 120 days, has already made its way towards the $10 - 13 section at Best Buy or Wal-Mart. Give it additional time, it's already headed towards the $5 bargain bin. There may be some catalog or niche titles that never make it to that point, but you get the dilemma. Why spend $20 on a title when it'll be $5 in less than a year?

I've been a lot more "selective" with my Blu-ray purchasing options and will mostly only purchase catalog titles when I can score them for $10 and under. There may be some exceptions to the rule, bur for 2010, I've followed that rule more than 90% of the time. I've purchased over 100 Blu-rays in 2010 so far and the average price paid has been under $10.36. Significantly less cost than compared to years ago and I was purchasing a similar amount of DVDs.

Ranger

Sony's also jumping in the glassless 3dtv race.

On bd vs dvd players, stores still have a lot of dvd players for sale, though some have HD upconversion.

Checked bb and wmt websites:
wmt: 25 bd players, 19 dvd players.
bb: 42 bd players, 27 dvd players.

BuckNaked2k

Coral

Huge reasons right there. The thrill is gone with amassing a collection and many have realized they dont need to own everything... and what they do own, most they really dont need to upgrade. This forum is a great example - everyone was buying something every week it seemed, then eventually it slowed down dramatically and now even with the excitement of HD with BD, everyone seems MUCH more selective in their purchases. The DVD hangover extended to BD.

orangerunner

I agree the average person is burned-out from buying every title on DVD. The thrill of purchasing is gone as people mull over their vast DVD collections and realize many titles have only been watched maybe once or twice, maybe never.

So many changes have occured since DVD really caught fire. The local cable providers now have the films on-demand the exact same day the DVD is released.

I think there is just much more competition for our free time nowadays; Games, surfing the net, e-mail, 150+ channels on TV, downloading music, uploading our iPods, watching YouTube, sorting digital photos and so on.

van der graaf

Qui Gon Jim

Precisely.

Also, if BD sales rise 1%, it does not correlate to a 1% decline in DVD. The two numbers are astronomically separate.

I am pretty comfortable where BD is right now.

Qui Gon Jim

Great post. Think back to just before BD launched, and the studios started a two-tier approach to many releases, a movie-only disc and an SE loaded with extras. This was all the rage for a year or so. Now, most every one of those desirable SE's can be found for a song either at Wal-Mart or some other retailer.

NoirFan

I miss Pro-B.