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Old 06-19-08 | 11:38 AM
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I'd even go as far as to say that media pricing should be the PRIMARY focus.

People generally seem to be willing to spend a bit more on a player, if the media to play on it is attractively priced. It's the "one-time expense" perspective. Price the players at $199, but keep the media at $30, and you may not get too many takers. But I would bet that a lot of people would spend $299 on a player, if the media was available for $15.

Of course, having a $199 player AND $15 media would draw the most attention.
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Old 06-22-08 | 08:53 PM
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Numbers are up as of 6/15:

HomeMediaMagazine

Blu-ray sales up 27% over previous week to $12.73 Million.....

....7% of top 20 vs. DVD.
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Old 06-22-08 | 10:26 PM
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If you take time to read the article in that Magazine, the quote from Panasonic is quite revealing - "downloads Ok, DVD good, Blu Ray best" (I'm paraphrasing because that site sucks holy hell). It confirms my belief that Blu Ray will be targeted, at least in the forseeable future (i.e. next 5 years) as a "premium" product with DVD being a viable alternative.

Thats OK with me, but it seems to indicate that pricing for media and somewhat players will never be at DVD levels.
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Old 06-23-08 | 12:22 AM
  #704  
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Originally Posted by chanster
Thats OK with me, but it seems to indicate that pricing for media and somewhat players will never be at DVD levels.
From Studios are looking at a big Q4 for Blu-ray, p.31, last paragraph:
As for the cost of Blu-ray Discs, he added that consumers would eventually see DVD prices, once the household penetration hits a certain point.

"When DVD hit a penetration rate of 25% for hardware, that's when software got below 20$" Takac said.
And if you actually read Studio Chiefs: Blu-ray to Reach 1B in 2008....there is A LOT of optimism about the format and where it is heading coming from those whose opinion matters the most. I'd say the never-bit from your statement is very, very unlikely.


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Old 06-23-08 | 02:08 AM
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Originally Posted by chanster
If you take time to read the article in that Magazine, the quote from Panasonic is quite revealing - "downloads Ok, DVD good, Blu Ray best" (I'm paraphrasing because that site sucks holy hell). It confirms my belief that Blu Ray will be targeted, at least in the foreseeable future (i.e. next 5 years) as a "premium" product with DVD being a viable alternative.

Thats OK with me, but it seems to indicate that pricing for media and somewhat players will never be at DVD levels.
I'm not sure which article you are referring to (because you're right, that site sucks, and I couldn't find any article containing quotes from anyone at Panasonic), but I'll take your word that the quote is there, somewhere. However, I think it might take a bit of interpretation to reach that confirmation you mentioned. In other words, people who are looking for such confirmation are likely to interpret the quote that way. People who aren't, won't.

As for media and player prices, while I agree they are not at mass acceptance levels today, I see no signs (yet) that they won't be there in 2(+) years.
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Old 06-23-08 | 03:16 AM
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
I'm not sure which article you are referring to (because you're right, that site sucks, and I couldn't find any article containing quotes from anyone at Panasonic), but I'll take your word that the quote is there, somewhere. However, I think it might take a bit of interpretation to reach that confirmation you mentioned. In other words, people who are looking for such confirmation are likely to interpret the quote that way. People who aren't, won't.

That's because that the online version of their print magazine. All the articles are also available in more classical web format.

The quote by the Panasonic exec you are looking for is here:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=12956

Eisuke Tsuyuzaki, VP of corporate development for Panasonic and GM of Panasonic’s Blu-ray Disc organization, put it simply: “Digital delivery is good, DVD is better, and Blu-ray is the best quality available. Thankfully, in the motion picture business, we don’t have the comparison to [music] singles.”

Just like the presidents of the home entertainment divisions of each major studio, Paramount’s Saito said that the last three months of 2008 will be critical for Blu-ray’s success, at least for this year.

“It’s all about education, and seeing is believing,” he said.

Tsuyuzaki added “We’re on track to reach a million people this year. … Once they see it, you get the ‘ah-ha’ moment.”

He said that it wouldn’t be shocking to see a more affordable Blu-ray player by year’s end.

“Whether it’s $299, $199, $99, I don’t know,” he said. “… It’s about finding the right value proposition. You have to give them a solid, robust reason to buy it.”
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Old 06-24-08 | 08:15 AM
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Seems to me that the way companies are doing things now (if they weren't always doing it) was to provide various levels of items at different costs. If DVD is the medium level and Blu-Ray is the best, I find it hard to believe that companies will price Blu-Ray the same as DVD..that just seems contrary to everything that has ever been done before.

Now the flip side is that DVD prices may fall and Blu-Ray prices may "take over" the DVD price slot range. Thats also possible, but I don't thnk it will happen in the near future.
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Old 06-24-08 | 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by chanster
Seems to me that the way companies are doing things now (if they weren't always doing it) was to provide various levels of items at different costs. If DVD is the medium level and Blu-Ray is the best, I find it hard to believe that companies will price Blu-Ray the same as DVD..that just seems contrary to everything that has ever been done before.

Now the flip side is that DVD prices may fall and Blu-Ray prices may "take over" the DVD price slot range. Thats also possible, but I don't thnk it will happen in the near future.
True, but I don't think anyone is suggesting that BDs should be priced the same. We just want a moderate difference in price. When Predator on DVD can be had for less than $10, it seems ridiculous that the BD costs $30. (Yes, I know sometimes people "cheat" by comparing a BD with extras to the barebones DVD, but in that case the barebones DVD absolutely should be compared to the BD, since Fox left off the extras from the SE.)

I guess we're just spoiled by DVDs being priced as loss leaders. There often isn't that much of a difference in the MSRP of a 2-disc DVD and a BD, but the DVD gets discounted a lot more than the BD.
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Old 06-24-08 | 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by chanster
Seems to me that the way companies are doing things now (if they weren't always doing it) was to provide various levels of items at different costs. If DVD is the medium level and Blu-Ray is the best, I find it hard to believe that companies will price Blu-Ray the same as DVD..that just seems contrary to everything that has ever been done before.
Can you give specific examples about contrary and before. Everything that I have seen thus far suggests quite a different trend, one that is not only a carbon-copy of how the studios approached DVD but in many cases revealing a much accelerated progression in terms of pricing, advertising, etc. Example: I never saw falling pricing on SDVD hardware while one of the majors was still missing from the market.

Originally Posted by chanster
Now the flip side is that DVD prices may fall and Blu-Ray prices may "take over" the DVD price slot range. Thats also possible, but I don't thnk it will happen in the near future.
The CEOs all seem to be receptive to the idea that pricing reflects market penetration. And from the latest quotes I read in the articles linked above they all appear confident that strong growth is ahead of us. I think that prices are exactly where they need to be.

Pro-B
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Old 06-24-08 | 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
Can you give specific examples about contrary and before. Everything that I have seen thus far suggests quite a different trend, one that is not only a carbon-copy of how the studios approached DVD but in many cases revealing a much accelerated progression in terms of pricing, advertising, etc. Example: I never saw falling pricing on SDVD hardware while one of the majors was still missing from the market.



The CEOs all seem to be receptive to the idea that pricing reflects market penetration. And from the latest quotes I read in the articles linked above they all appear confident that strong growth is ahead of us. I think that prices are exactly where they need to be.

Pro-B
There really are so many examples its almost impossible to say just one. Look at any TV or DVD player, and all the manufacturers have an Good/Better/Best model out there. The Panasonic quote confirms to me at least the business model will be "Sell DVDs to price concious consumers as Good technology, and sell Blu Ray for those that demand the Best." Nothing wrong with that. As I mentioned before, car companies do the same thing - Toyota and Lexus, Nissan and Infiniti, etc.

Last edited by chanster; 06-24-08 at 04:35 PM.
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Old 06-24-08 | 05:12 PM
  #711  
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Originally Posted by chanster
There really are so many examples its almost impossible to say just one. Look at any TV or DVD player, and all the manufacturers have an Good/Better/Best model out there.
I must be misinterpreting what you are saying because what you just posted has absolutely nothing to do with your stance, it does not support it. What makes you believe that there won't be good/better/best models BR players that won't be in the price range DVD hardware has currently...this is what I would like you to explain to me. Is there a tendency, trend, or something else that makes you believe so?

Originally Posted by chanster
The Panasonic quote confirms to me at least the business model will be "Sell DVDs to price concious consumers as Good technology, and sell Blu Ray for those that demand the Best." Nothing wrong with that. As I mentioned before, car companies do the same thing - Toyota and Lexus, Nissan and Infiniti, etc.
I am sorry to disagree with you yet again but as I noted so many times before hardware manufactures won't have the final say on how the market will evolve, content providers will a.k.a the majors. This is what history tells us. From what I've read from you so far it appears that you believe that the current market status-quo will be in place indefinitely, hence the pricing model. This is why I asked that you explain what makes you believe that we won't see any further movement.

Current research by market analysts points that 2012 is likely the curve when BR sales will surpass SDVD sales. Whether or not this comes to fruition right now is irrelevant, what is is that market expansion is seen by both content-providers and hardware manufacturers as more than likely. And as the article I quoted earlier notes this is what forced software (and hardware) pricing to come down with DVD.

The trend seems quite similar to me.

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Old 06-24-08 | 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
I must be misinterpreting what you are saying because what you just posted has absolutely nothing to do with your stance, it does not support it. What makes you believe that there won't be good/better/best models BR players that won't be in the price range DVD hardware has currently...this is what I would like you to explain to me. Is there a tendency, trend, or something else that makes you believe so?



I am sorry to disagree with you yet again but as I noted so many times before hardware manufactures won't have the final say on how the market will evolve, content providers will a.k.a the majors. This is what history tells us. From what I've read from you so far it appears that you believe that the current market status-quo will be in place indefinitely, hence the pricing model. This is why I asked that you explain what makes you believe that we won't see any further movement.

Current research by market analysts points that 2012 is likely the curve when BR sales will surpass SDVD sales. Whether or not this comes to fruition right now is irrelevant, what is is that market expansion is seen by both content-providers and hardware manufacturers as more than likely. And as the article I quoted earlier notes this is what forced software (and hardware) pricing to come down with DVD.

The trend seems quite similar to me.

Pro-B
Well of course there will be cheaper and more expensive Blu Ray players. Just like there will be cheaper and more expensive DVD players. (although the range of expensive DVD players will probably dwindle into obscurity)

From a macro sense, however, any company that sells media based players (like Panasonic) would be idiotic to compartmentalize their DVD and Blu Ray players into seperate strategies. The strategy is to sell hardware. Some people want the cheap stuff, so they get DVD. Others want better quality, they get Blu Ray.

You have someone that doesn't own an HDTV, or perhaps doesn't care enough, they will be perfectly happy with their DVD player, and I'm sure Panasonic will be happy to oblige selling them a $79 or $99 player...just like they would be happy to sell a $500 Blu Ray player. And maybe just maybe, the existence of a $79 DVD player justifies the rock bottom price of $119 for a Blu Ray player, whereas maybe it only costs Panasonic $50 or so to manafacture it (these numbers are just hypotheticals into the future - but it illustrates the good/better/best pricing regime) that CE companies seem to love.


The very fact that Blu Ray can play more formats than DVD will be a selling point and something that will keep the price of a Blu Ray player, on average, more expensive than a DVD players that will continue to exist. Will there be exceptions? Sure, but the backwards compatibility of Blu Ray will keep DVD around for a long time....which means that DVD only players will continue to exist.
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Old 06-24-08 | 09:32 PM
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I don't see it playing out that way at all. In fact, I will be surprised if there are still separate manufacturing lines for DVD players and Blu-ray players in five or six years. What makes the most sense to me is that, as the cost of blue laser assemblies approaches that of red laser assemblies, and single-chip designs become plentiful, all players will be Blu-ray players, that also happen to be DVD players.

Any manufacturer that tries to keep both players types alive as separate product lines for the long term is what I would call idiotic.
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Old 06-24-08 | 10:15 PM
  #714  
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Originally Posted by The Digital Bits
And in other news today, there are a number of reports from industry analysis firms (including Futuresource, formerly Understanding & Solutions) that the adoption of Blu-ray Disc so far has outpaced the early adoption of DVD at the same stage in that format's life. European consumers are apparently buying into Blu-ray hardware six times faster than they did DVD, while here in the states, its three times faster. What's more, the Hollywood studios are forecasting that Blu-ray software sales will hit $1 billion in 2008. You can read more here at Video Business.
(See TheDigitalBits for the Video Business link...)

I thought that was pretty interesting, and it validates what a lot of us have been saying. Blu Ray is the future of physical video media. DVD will eventually be phased out (or may stick around as the media for SD sourced video - like old TV shows shot on video tape, and old concert videos shot on video tape, etc), but I have no doubt that as prices drop that the studios putting out the software, and the manufacturers putting out the hardware will eventually move to a near exclusive Blu Ray production. Like I said, there may be a longer term life for SDDVD for older Video Tape based productions and maybe TV shows with extensive effects done in SD, but DVD as the dominant physical format will be surpassed by Blu Ray in the next 5-10 years.
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Old 06-24-08 | 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by chanster
Well of course there will be cheaper and more expensive Blu Ray players. Just like there will be cheaper and more expensive DVD players. (although the range of expensive DVD players will probably dwindle into obscurity)

From a macro sense, however, any company that sells media based players (like Panasonic) would be idiotic to compartmentalize their DVD and Blu Ray players into seperate strategies. The strategy is to sell hardware. Some people want the cheap stuff, so they get DVD. Others want better quality, they get Blu Ray.

You have someone that doesn't own an HDTV, or perhaps doesn't care enough, they will be perfectly happy with their DVD player, and I'm sure Panasonic will be happy to oblige selling them a $79 or $99 player...just like they would be happy to sell a $500 Blu Ray player. And maybe just maybe, the existence of a $79 DVD player justifies the rock bottom price of $119 for a Blu Ray player, whereas maybe it only costs Panasonic $50 or so to manafacture it (these numbers are just hypotheticals into the future - but it illustrates the good/better/best pricing regime) that CE companies seem to love.


The very fact that Blu Ray can play more formats than DVD will be a selling point and something that will keep the price of a Blu Ray player, on average, more expensive than a DVD players that will continue to exist. Will there be exceptions? Sure, but the backwards compatibility of Blu Ray will keep DVD around for a long time....which means that DVD only players will continue to exist.
I am not sure we are on the same page here as you keep on trying to read the future of the market from a hardware manufacturer's point of view. And all of the arguments that you have make very little sense as whether or not we have a viable SDVD hardware market 5 years from now isn't up to Panasonic, Toshiba, SHARP, etc. to decide. It is up to the content providers and I am not sure you understand why.

Your HDTV owners example fails the moment the studios decide to do what they did with VHS - have exclusive major content on BR - hence, forcing the market in a different direction. You don't see it coming because BR players are backwards compatible but if in the next 5 years HD does move beyond 50%, as predicted, such scenario will be more than likely.

And finally, you have it all backwards, the strategy this market is driven by is selling as much software as possible, not hardware. The hardware manufacturers follow the content providers, not the other way around.

Ciao,
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Old 06-24-08 | 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by B5Erik
(See TheDigitalBits for the Video Business link...)

I thought that was pretty interesting, and it validates what a lot of us have been saying. Blu Ray is the future of physical video media. DVD will eventually be phased out (or may stick around as the media for SD sourced video - like old TV shows shot on video tape, and old concert videos shot on video tape, etc), but I have no doubt that as prices drop that the studios putting out the software, and the manufacturers putting out the hardware will eventually move to a near exclusive Blu Ray production. Like I said, there may be a longer term life for SDDVD for older Video Tape based productions and maybe TV shows with extensive effects done in SD, but DVD as the dominant physical format will be surpassed by Blu Ray in the next 5-10 years.
Blu-ray may be the future for physical based media...but how long will that be for? How long until BD outsells DVD? 5 Years? 8 Years? We don't know. This week the top 20 BD sold at 7% compared to the top 20 DVD. What about the other 100k DVDs vs 700 BDs?

The only time we will see a change is if a major studio stops releasing on DVD and I don't see that happening unless Blu-ray capable devices are everywhere (laptops, cars, etc). Obviously the first would be Sony as they are the only CE that also owns a studio (and also the #1 supporter of Blu-ray), but I can't see Sony leaving all that DVD money on the table. Personally, I see BD sitting at 25% and DVD the other 75% until something else happens (VOD, Downloads, whatever). As long as we get a good chunk of movies I'm content with that.
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Old 06-25-08 | 06:14 AM
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The only thing I am noticing in talking to friends is that they are not going to buy as many BluRay movies as they did compared to buying hundreds of DVD's. Every friend I talk to says the same thing, "When I get a BluRay Player, I am not going to go crazy and just buy a whole lot of movies I will never watch."

I still think BluRay will succeed, and pass DVD sometime in the next 5-6 years, and eventually be the dominant format, but I will say that many won't have huge BluRay collections the same way they did with DVD collections. I think people will either buy/rent the new releases, but will probably only buy the great back catalog titles they know they will watch multiple times, compared to DVD where people were buying loads of DVDs that they either watched once or are still sitting on their shelf unwatched.
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Old 06-25-08 | 06:25 AM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
And finally, you have it all backwards, the strategy this market is driven by is selling as much software as possible, not hardware. The hardware manufacturers follow the content providers, not the other way around.

Ciao,
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I think you are talking about the old (and proven) business model from the early 1900's of selling the "blades" that go into the "razors". This is the same idea that drove the video game business in the last few decades as well, making money on the games for the different gaming platforms, instead of the gaming platforms themselves.
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Old 06-25-08 | 09:04 AM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
And finally, you have it all backwards, the strategy this market is driven by is selling as much software as possible, not hardware. The hardware manufacturers follow the content providers, not the other way around.

Ciao,
Pro-B
As Gizmo pointed out, I don't think so, unless you are talking about possibly Sony exclusively. Panasonic, which doesn't own a lot of content is interested in selling hardware period. If the market goes only Blu Ray, it will sell only Blu Ray. Blu Ray is backward compatible with DVD, whereas VHS was not, thus ensuring that DVD will never be truly phased out...which means so long as people are buying DVD players, Panasonic will sell them...of course they will try to upsell you on Blu Ray along the way, if Blu Ray is more profitable for them.
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Old 06-25-08 | 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
as predicted
By who? The studio execs and execs from companies that sell the hardware? Of course they're going to say their product isn't going to fail.

I also agree with chanster. The hardware is backwards compatible so as long as the prices get cheap enough, they can switch over to a blu-ray hardware only market and still be able to sell both formats while at the same time the hardware is what has completely taken over.
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Old 06-25-08 | 11:22 AM
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I'm not sure I understand how that would be a problem.

Let's hypothesize for a moment. Suppose (because I don't want to be accused of predicting anything) that in five years more people own Blu-ray players than DVD-only players, and that the cost difference between manufacturing a DVD player and an equivalent Blu-ray player is down below $20. It no longer makes sense to manufacture a player that doesn't play both types of media, so all new players sold are Blu-ray players (that also happen to play DVDs).

Under those circumstances, DVD essentially becomes a subset of Blu-ray, and it really no longer matters. I suppose that studios could then choose to release a particular product on DVD, if there is no benefit from releasing it on Blu-ray (such as some older shot-on-video TV series), but even then, why should they? If the replication cost for DVD isn't significantly lower at that point -- and I doubt it will be -- then why not just release it on BD, even if it is stored at SD resolution?

In short, where is the advantage in continuing to release content on DVD if the market has shifted to a Blu-ray majority, all future players will be Blu-ray capable, and there is no manufacturing cost benefit to using the older format?
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Old 06-25-08 | 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
I'm not sure I understand how that would be a problem.

Let's hypothesize for a moment. Suppose (because I don't want to be accused of predicting anything) that in five years more people own Blu-ray players than DVD-only players, and that the cost difference between manufacturing a DVD player and an equivalent Blu-ray player is down below $20. It no longer makes sense to manufacture a player that doesn't play both types of media, so all new players sold are Blu-ray players (that also happen to play DVDs).

Under those circumstances, DVD essentially becomes a subset of Blu-ray, and it really no longer matters. I suppose that studios could then choose to release a particular product on DVD, if there is no benefit from releasing it on Blu-ray (such as some older shot-on-video TV series), but even then, why should they? If the replication cost for DVD isn't significantly lower at that point -- and I doubt it will be -- then why not just release it on BD, even if it is stored at SD resolution?

In short, where is the advantage in continuing to release content on DVD if the market has shifted to a Blu-ray majority, all future players will be Blu-ray capable, and there is no manufacturing cost benefit to using the older format?
I can see smaller outfits still releasing items in DVD just because of the much cheaper cost of media or companies releasing a video on a new product. It'd be much cheaper to use DVD instead of Blu-ray. Also, regardless of someone's view of the product, it'll be a long time before anyone can pick up movies on Blu-ray at a $1 store.
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Old 06-25-08 | 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mister Peepers
By who?
By the Entertainment Merchants Association of America, EMA.

Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry Finds That Home Video Continues to Dominate the Movie Market and Game Sales Rose 34% in 2007

ENCINO, Calif., June 24 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Even in light of a small decrease in overall consumer spending on DVD, the approximately $24 billion home video market continued to be the largest segment of consumer movie spending by far, accounting for 49% of all consumer movie spending in 2007. In the video game market, game software sales increased 34% in 2007, to a total of $8.6 billion. These and other noteworthy findings gathered from a variety of authoritative sources are included in the 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry, released today by the Entertainment Merchants Association (EMA).

"Consumers remain enamored with DVD and video games even as they incorporate new forms of entertainment media into their consumption patterns," noted Bo Andersen, President and CEO of EMA. "New generations of hardware and software, and alternative delivery channels, will ensure that home video and video games remain phenomenally popular entertainment options for the American public for years to come."

Other interesting facts contained in the report:

* Home video generated $15.9 billion in sales and $8.2 billion in rentals in 2007.
* Nearly 9 million high-definition discs were sold in 2007, for which consumers spent more than $260 million.
* There were 12,177 DVDs released in 2007, down from a peak of 13,950 in 2005.
* It is estimated that, in 2012, sales of Blu-ray Discs will exceed those of standard DVDs and will generate sales of $9.5 billion.
* Home video spending is projected to increase to $25.6 billion in 2012.
* Traditional rental stores, dominated by Blockbuster, accounted for 73% of the rental business in 2007. Online subscription rental (such as Netflix and Blockbuster's Total Access) were 25% of the market. Kiosk rental doubled its market share to 2%.

The 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry provides comprehensive data on and analysis of sales and rentals of DVDs, Blu-Ray Discs, video on demand, computer and console video games, and competing technologies. The report may be purchased from EMA: www.EntertainmentMerchantsAssociation.org; 818-385-1500.

EMA is the not-for-profit international trade association dedicated to advancing the interests of the $33 billion home entertainment industry.
Website: http://www.entertainmentmerchantsassociation.org/
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Old 06-25-08 | 12:26 PM
  #724  
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From: Blu-ray.com
Originally Posted by jackson walker
I think you are talking about the old (and proven) business model from the early 1900's of selling the "blades" that go into the "razors". This is the same idea that drove the video game business in the last few decades as well, making money on the games for the different gaming platforms, instead of the gaming platforms themselves.
I meant exactly what I wrote. The industry is moving in the direction the content-providers do. Toshiba tried to go the other way and failed, SONY followed the same route with Beta and failed, etc. The videogame industry follows a slightly different model because there isn't a unified platform, the market is fractured with content providers controlling different platforms. With DVD and BR all of the content providers are unified, hence the reason why we had a war. It is up to them to decide if and when the market can switch entirely, not the hardware manufacturers,

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Old 06-25-08 | 01:17 PM
  #725  
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From: A far green country
Originally Posted by Mister Peepers
I can see smaller outfits still releasing items in DVD just because of the much cheaper cost of media or companies releasing a video on a new product. It'd be much cheaper to use DVD instead of Blu-ray. Also, regardless of someone's view of the product, it'll be a long time before anyone can pick up movies on Blu-ray at a $1 store.
Part of my hypothesis was that replication cost for Blu-ray will reach levels that are equivalent with DVD over time. DVD replication costs cannot get much cheaper than they are today. Blu-ray, on the other hand, can only get cheaper. Eventually (by my theory, sometime within the next five years), they will be equal. At that point, I can't even see smaller outfits benefiting from a DVD release of a product.
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