How BR sold last year during the holidays does not mean much at all at this point. Then there was a competing format this holiday season there won't be one. There are enough major blockbusters, plus two more major distribs releasing, that will be in stores on time for the hollidays. In addition there will be Criterion with some excellent titles which will bring an entirely new type of customers as well. Why would not the market meet the expectations the CEOs have shared publicly?

Pro-B

Yes it does. It all matters. You can't just forget about last year because it hurts your cause. Last years BD revenue compared to this year does matter considering it will now be Blu-rays 3rd Holiday season.

As for Criterion...I'm glad to see them releasing titles, but if you actually think it will bring in many more customers to Blu-ray then you will soon be found wrong. Very few of their titles appeal to the mass audience and most are indie/foreign films that very few people have ever heard of. Ive been collecting DVDs for 10 years now and I only own a handful of titles (being all Wes Anderson films and a Kevin Smith film). Granted, there will be those people who actually collect Criterion buying into the format, but I can't see the average joe getting excited for El Norte, The Last Emperor or even Bottle Rocket.

I should add just because HD DVD is gone does not mean there will not be other HD things being marketed this year. There are many VOD type devices that stores will be pushing (VuDo, AppleTV etc.) that are going to compete for consumer $. Blu-ray may be the only HD disc format, but the HD VOD stuff is pretty new this year and consumers may look into getting that vs. BD. While I'm happy with my BD player and AppleTV (and see no compelling reason to ever get VuDo), there is no doubt in my mind if there are not BD players under $200 (and well stocked from different CEs), you may see people picking up those VOD boxes vs. BD players and discs. Hopefully by the time the Holidays comes around some other CE introduces a cheap player.

Man Who Fell to Earth (BD) will be HUGE!

How it matters?

Nothing hurts what I posted above. Last year's sales have already been surpassed. So, I have every reason to expect that this holliday season will be stronger for BR.

Sure. If that is how you see them.

Ciao,
Pro-B

Out of all the titles Criterion is planning, I have only heard of Bottle Rocket. I'm not big into any indie/foreign films, so that may be why. Criterion should be releasing some of their more well known titles first (Armageddon, Robocop, Silence of the Lambs etc) and then mix in some of their more unique titles.

That is exactly what Criterion should not be doing, and they are not. The selection of titles they have announced is as diverse and exciting as it could possibly be.

Pro-B

Has any Criterion title ever sold gangbusters on DVD? Most of their films appeal to a very select audience. Sure, there are some more mainstream hits (Armageddon, Fear in Loathing), but many are titles the average person would not have any clue about.

OT, I was actually pretty shocked to see Best Buy devote an entire bay to Criterion discs in the past month or two. Are all Best Buys doing that now?

I'm not a huge Criterion collector myself:

My Modest Collection

and none of those titles are candidates for BD replacement, although I may add Chungking Express BD when it comes out based on some of the buzz that film gets around here.

I'll gladly replace all my DVD Criterion films with Blu-ray versions. I have yet to buy Brazil because I figured it would be one of the first out the gate....but guess not. Bottle Rocket will probably be their best selling on Blu-ray out of all their announced titles simply because its been requested now for 10 years. Sold my DVD copy off the day it was announced for Blu.

Gimme Shelter (BD) may surprise... there are still a lot of hardcore old-school Stones fans out there who will be all over this. Shine A Light (BD), not so much.

Being a new release, I think SAL will outsell GS. With any catalog title, there is always going to be that group that won't replace their current disc. I could maybe even see people being less likely to replace their Criterion discs because they paid more for them than they did for studio titles.

As for Criterion, personally I haven't bought many of their DVDs either (though I plan to buy more of their BDs). However, it is very important to get them on board. Look at all the talk about Criterion in the DVD forum section; look at how they're revered. It is important to get as wide of a variety of titles as possible, to fight the perception that the format is only for action, sci-fi, and horror titles. Having Criterion is a big step in that direction.

Overall I'd agree with that for your reasons, as well as the Scorsese factor. But I think the "old-school, hardcore" Stones fans that I referred to will rather upgrade a document of the band in their prime than get another version of the Vegas Stones. I think sales will be respectable (no pun intended).

I don't think Criterion owns the rights to Robocop or Silence of the Lambs anymore..those movies have been OOP on DVD for a long long time, (the Criterion versions).

Not to mention that the current non-Criterion versions of those titles have surpassed the Criterions in terms of PQ, as the Criterions weren't even anamorphic.

I totally agree here. Their impact will be minuscule to nothing on player sales. They will be a niche inside of a niche. Criterion has their following, but that following really over-values itself.

If Criterion just gave me Rushmore I would be happy.

I will give you a few pointers here and then let you believe whatever you wish to believe:

1. Criterion is the only independent distrib to have a dedicated forum and a sizable membership meticulously discussing/following/purchasing their products. They have also prompted the formation of a number of independent distirbs that nowadays copy their style of presentation (a certain Scandinavian distrib even borrowing their very name). If you could find another forum with a sizable international community of members as large as the one gathered under the Criterion name feel free to link it here.

2. Criterion hardly needs any publicity (I know you were not around during the mid-80s when they started releasing but they are the only independent distrib that always has an impact on the market -- when they enter people pay very close attention). On just about any forum or news site where DVD/BR/Cinema is discussed seriously Criterion is always covered with utmost respect. They do as much business overseas as they do in the US.

If you do not know the films Criterion have released then you do not know Cinema (as cliche and snobbish as it may sound to you).

3. Criterion releasing on BR will have a major impact on the market. Thinking otherwise, as I mentioned above, only reaffirms my conviction that you do not know how they were treated by the LD and DVD markets.

4. Instead of being shocked that Best Buy carries the Criterion collection ask yourself why is it that they offer some of the most expensive DVD releases, apparently not "major", in their stores? Coincidence??.

5. Criterion is the only independent distributor to continuously have the world's most prominent directors record exclusive interviews/footage for their releases. Coincidence?

I will let you and a few other posters ponder the bits above and think whether or not Criterion will have an impact on the market.

They never did.

Ciao,
Pro-B

Please Pro, stop quibbling over semantics. They may not have owned the films themselves, but if you license something out like Criterion does, then yes you own the right to publish those movies. So yes they did "own the rights" for a certain period...which is exactly what I said.

So what your saying is when Criterion hits the market all the current DVD owners will rush out to buy Blu-ray players and snap up all the Criterion discs in record speed, right? Because they are the more affluent movie watcher and smarter then everyone else. Got it.

That weeks Nielsen should be pretty interesting to see. Can't wait to see The Love Guru selling more copies then 'insert random foreign film that only smart people watch'.

Closing for length.