When did any video player cost $500 - $1000 and "catch on" en masse?

Umm that article is from 1996...probably ground zero (or maybe -1) years prior to release of consumer DVD players. We are in year what of Blu Ray now? Year 2.5? Year 3?

Actually, this article was -1 year prior to the format launch according to the nice chart the Digital Bits has:
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html

So what this is an uninformed person who had never seen DVD players in action. No way is it comparable to persons who have seen what Blu Ray can deliver in terms of improvement over DVD.

2 Years as of June 20th, 2008. So, 23 months.

Back when DVDs launched very few people had VHS collections. Now many have DVDs and when upconverted is "good enough". Whats the incentive to replace them with $20-$35 copies? Day and Days sell well on Blu...but most catalog titles do not.

Playing DVDs also hurts BD software sales.

These are some other excellent points that I intended (though forgot) to include in my previous post. The transition from VHS to DVD was significant. VHS/DVD combo units took years to emerge (mostly due to piracy concerns), so consumers needed to have two players connected to their TVs. That is not the case with Blu-ray. Every Blu-ray player will always be able to play DVDs, so it becomes a much more natural upgrade path.

Also, I think most people don't realize that, as applesandrice mentioned earlier, VOD is no more of an issue for Blu-ray than PPV has ever been for DVD. And, of source, VOD has still not overcome the infrastructure hurdle for most consumers.

And, finally, one of the paradigm shifts brought about by DVD is movie collecting (thanks, in large part, to Warren Lieberfarb). Sell-through volume for VHS was never more than a fraction of its rental counterpart. With DVD, all of that changed, and most people now consider themselves collectors, at least on some level.

According to the Digital Bits hardware sales, DVD players took off between 98-99 or so:
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html.

I am talking about a quadruple number in sales here, something it never has done since (from about 1 MM to 4 MM). (thats for all you percentage lovers out there

Are you telling me the transition from "VHS to DVD" was significant?? The format was launched in 97. And this was without the added bonus of the most important DVD player doubling as a video gaming machine. And it it was wihtout backwards compatibility, so people were buying these things like hotcakes without an existing library, so thats a pretty hefty investment.

Now Blu Ray is backwards compatible, so the transition may be even cheaper yet they aren't selling that hot (especially standalones).

I'm not a studio wiz or anything, but if studios really wanted Blu Ray to become mainstream, they would have dumped DVD backwards compatibility. Of course that would have probably led to catasprophic failure because people would have been pissed about replacing their whole collection or complaining about obsoleteness (which would have been a fair problem)

So instead they took the middle path - and I think that's going to leave Blu Ray in the realm of cinehphiles, home theater fans who want the extra quality. Thats why they are leaving pricing alone and high.

Umm, that's why I said it was before the launch of DVD.
"leading up to DVD's launch"


1997 is when DVD players came out. They didn't take off until Christmas 1999 and throughout 2000. They peaked in 2003.

By year
1998 - 1 million
1999 - 4 million
2000 - 8 million
2001 - 13 million
2002 - 17 million
2003 - 22 million

You think they took off in 1998-1999?

.....and really, would that be such a bad thing?

I mean this entire forum is pretty much geared toward the enthusiast to one degree or another. If Blu-ray becomes the enthusiast's format, then so be it. DVD will still be around for those preferring the bargain play, and for whom 480i really is good enough.

It seems a lot of people around here are really tied up with the mentality that if Blu-ray doesn't dominate the marketplace, then it will be judged to be a failure, and be in jeopardy of obsolescence.

Then we apparently have very different ideas of what "took off" means (plus, you apparently have a very different idea of what it means regarding DVD than you do regarding Blu-ray.

Three million players in just over two years isn't exactly explosive growth. Look again at the charts. The numbers don't lie. As I already said once before (why do I keep having to repeat myself?), the first significant growth occurred in September of 1999. From that month until the end of the year, the number of players sold almost equaled what had been sold over the previous two years combined.

Well, the last 6 pages has been all about percentage increases and how they are so great for Blu Ray, so why not jump in the fun? I think its hillarious that some people have been harping on growth all OF A SUDDEN start making the case for hard numbers, which is what the supposed "doom and gloomers" have just been saying - look at the actual numbers.

I mean according to percentages 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 were the most explosive years for DVD growth.

No it wouldn't. But if the market sticks to those 3 groups, you aren't going to get the deeper catalog titles. Thats fine for some people, and thats what most people are concerned about. So I'm sure that AVP6 or Hitman 3 will find a happy home on Blu Ray, I'm not so sure about other types of titles.

And honestly, I thought what differntiated this forum from other video forums was the "not hardcore" enthusiasts. Sure there are plenty of those here, but there are also casual movie fans as well.

Yeah but its apple and oranges to compare the opinions of a person before the launch of a format with the opinions of people who 2 years into the format have seen the capabilities and improvements of Blu Ray over DVD.

Yea, I hear you about catalog titles....that's where my main interest lies. I don't like a whole lot of what's out in theaters these days, and I do see a lot of dreck available on BD.

What do I know? I've only been on here since '05. I do prefer this forum to others, as there seem to be far fewer nut-job type zealots, although we do have our fair share of loons at times.

...anyone have this weeks #s?

95:5 for DVD.

I don't know how to post the chart, but: Home Media Magazine

Down 7.32% from the previous week....and it seems they've stopped posting the raw numbers again.

I have never expected High Definition media to dominate the marketplace right away. I simply want it to become profitable enough for the companies involved that they continue releasing movies on it. All sorts of movies, not just day-and-date $100+ million blockbusters, which are currently the only things selling at all worth a damn.

Right now, the format is not yet on track to acheive even that modest goal. A shift in the release strategies and marketing mentality is needed.

Huzzah! Something we agree on!

I think this is a very good point and one that can be the subject of good discussion (but it is a far cry from the claims that "if something isn't done to 'fix' Blu-ray right now, it'll be dead dead dead by the end of 2009").

From the day I bought my first DVD 11 years ago, I knew an HD counterpart would be coming. I admit I was concerned for a while about how futureproof my burgeoning DVD collection would be. However, when I bought my first "HDTV" about eight years ago (a 65" 1080i Toshiba CRT RPTV), and I saw how good DVDs looked, even on that primitive HD setup, I realized that it wasn't such a problem after all. From that day on I have always looked at the coming HD medium as a complement to SD DVD, not necessarily a wholesale replacement for it.

I know that, for me at least, a good portion of my DVD collection will never be replaced by BDs. For many of the titles, there isn't any need. Upconverting is good enough. But I do intend to make all of my new purchases be BDs, even if it means waiting a few weeks/months in the short term, such as with Cloverfield.

With that said, there are still many catalog titles in my collection what I would want to replace, and I, like most others here, want the format to be successful enough to justify releasing those titles. And, of course, there are plenty of catalog titles that I don't own yet, and I would prefer to purchase those on BD as well.

Fortunately, I haven't seen anything yet to convince me that the format won't reach that level of success.

I guess this is the crux of our disagreement. You don't see the format as being on track. I do, at least for now.

But, rather than just sitting around here (in the virtual sense) grousing about it, why not do something more? You are already a contributor to Home Theater Magazine. Why not submit an article to them, outlining what you see as the problem, and offering constructive ways you think it can be overcome (short of unrealistic subsidies and other red ink proposals). If nothing else, it would be a cathartic exercise.

Josh, you write the article and I'll provide an accompanying illustration. I'm thinking something along the lines of an Allosaurus fighting either an octopus or a giant robot. Possibly both. Yes?

A giant robot octupus?

YES!!

If one of us is to be proven wrong, I'd rather it be me. If I'm wrong and everything turns out peachy keen, there's nothing lost. Egging on the studios and hardware manufacturers to improve their products and their promotional campaigns will benefit both them and consumers.

If you're wrong, the studios sit on their hands hoping for the best, and all of us eager for High-Def content get screwed when the upcoming release slates start slimming down.

What makes you think that those articles haven't already been written, submitted, and are currently being formatted for print?

A catalog title is the #1 seller.

Thanks for that. It helps put things into better perspective, and I can better understand your passion on the subject.

And I hope you understand that I am not at all opposed to cheaper players and titles. The sooner, the cheaper, the better. I just wonder if that is a realistic demand to make of the companies involved, right now.

But... But... No giant robot octopus?