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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 05-15-22, 01:07 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Yeah, it should be A24s top grossing domestic release by the end of next weekend, surpassing the $50m from Uncut Gems.
Old 05-28-22, 03:36 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

current estimates:


Old 05-29-22, 11:40 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

3 Day / 4 Day Estimates


​​​​​​55% of Mavericks audience was over 35 which bodes well for older audiences finally returning to theaters. In other news, I'm now "older audiences" (and have been for a while now heh)

Dr Strange 2 is now the highest grossing movie of 2022 edging out The Batman (Domestically, it was already ahead Worldwide I believe). Everything Everywhere is sailing to $60m total cume.

Last edited by RichC2; 05-29-22 at 11:50 AM.
Old 05-30-22, 10:12 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Top Gun is now looking like $156m for the 4 day.
Old 05-31-22, 10:10 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

3-Day Actuals:


4-Day Actuals:


Cobra Kai in the Sky did extremely well, Bob's Burgers made a few bucks en route to Disney+ (or Hulu)
Old 06-01-22, 12:18 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Looks like Fantastic Beasts won't even clear $100M. Now Warner will be getting the dump trucks filled with cash to try to get Harry Potter 8 going because otherwise that franchise is toast.
Old 06-01-22, 12:28 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by JeremyM View Post
Looks like Fantastic Beasts won't even clear $100M. Now Warner will be getting the dump trucks filled with cash to try to get Harry Potter 8 going because otherwise that franchise is toast.
The first one is 20 years old, time for a reboot! /Warner, probably.
Old 06-03-22, 04:05 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Estimates based on models + early Friday numbers/presales:



Edit: TGM @ $84.5m is now being estimated on a $25m Friday.

Last edited by RichC2; 06-04-22 at 11:19 AM.
Old 06-05-22, 01:55 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Further down the listů.
Old 06-05-22, 10:35 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
but all that pent up demand!




Everything Everywhere crosses $60m, TGM has the best hold of any $100m opening if the 32% drop holds. Extraordinary run so far (Actors pushing sixty seem to keep hitting career highs these days.)

Curious how next week will fare with JW: Dominion releasing.

On a side note, the-numbers.com had TGM pegged at $50m for weekend 2 which may be one of the worst model based predictions I've seen on a box office site.

Last edited by RichC2; 06-05-22 at 03:48 PM.
Old 06-06-22, 10:58 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Top Gun's drop wound up being 29%, bringing it to $295.6m domestic as of yesterday (est. $550m WW so far)

Jurassic World: Dominion opens in a few days and is expected to pull $100m+ domestically this weekend. Very curious how TGM will fare with the added competition.
Old 06-10-22, 04:23 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Dominion looks to be bagging $132m this weekend, not bad! Imagine what it could have done if it were a good movie.

$55.5m Friday (+ Previews)

Top Gun: Maverick looks to be pulling about $14m on Friday for a $50m weekend - a drop of 44% for a total of $393.6m after this weekend.

Doctor Strange 2 looks to be getting $5m this weekend for a cume of $398m after this weekend.

Top Gun: Maverick will very likely overtake it as top grossing domestic title of 2022 next week. It still has $300m+ to go to reach it on the World Wide stage (not counting this upcoming weekend).
Old 06-10-22, 06:32 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
Dominion looks to be bagging $132m this weekend, not bad! Imagine what it could have done if it were a good movie.
It's all about the week 2 drop. As I said in the movie thread, people love to see dinosaurs on the big screen. No matter what the RT score is. Plus you have a big nostalgia factor.
Old 06-12-22, 11:00 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread



No big surprises here.

Last edited by RichC2; 06-12-22 at 11:08 AM.
Old 06-13-22, 01:02 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

JW: D corrected up to $145m.
TG:M corrected up to $51.8m. Despite losing large format screens to JW: D it only declined 42% for weekend 3.
Old 06-13-22, 09:56 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I only know one person out of my circle of movie going friends who hasn’t seen Top Gun yet and he saw Jurassic World first over it.
Old 06-19-22, 09:46 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Top Gun Maverick was only down 15% this weekend to $44m. It's crushing it.

Last edited by RichC2; 06-19-22 at 10:03 AM.
Old 06-19-22, 09:35 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
Top Gun Maverick was only down 15% this weekend to $44m. It's crushing it.
Many movies would love to earn their entire run what TG made in its 4th week. Nothing to stop it until Thor. Elvis then Minions might make a dent. But only because they're new.
Old 07-04-22, 11:48 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I wonder what all considerations went into not opening Thor on July 4th weekend. Seems like Minions and Thor would have very different audiences. I'm sitting here today, not working, and it is hot as fuck outside. I would 100% be in a theater watching Thor if I could be.
Old 07-10-22, 11:28 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread


Weekend estimates per Sunday. Thor opened strong and the box office looks to be in about as good shape as one could hope all things considered. Top Gun Maverick will probably cross $600m domestic on Monday, Tuesday at the latest.
Old 07-10-22, 11:42 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Box Office looking good, overall.
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Old 07-11-22, 07:13 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TomOpus View Post
Box Office looking good, overall.
Originally Posted by TomOpus View Post
Frame 4 makes it obvious.
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Old 07-11-22, 08:54 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

i can't believe Minions is already at $210m.
Old 07-11-22, 11:39 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by story View Post
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Shit, musta clicked on the wrong thread on my phone and never noticed where I posted.
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Old 07-11-22, 05:25 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

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