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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 07-11-21, 06:16 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

That means about 2M households paid the $30 to watch it. That number seems small to me, but then again, that's $60M that Disney doesn't have to share with AMC, Regal and such.

Old 07-11-21, 06:22 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

For this move it matters. Ah I see.

Didn't seem to for others...


Old 07-11-21, 06:24 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I think Disney wants to still be able to boast $100mil+ domestic.
Old 07-11-21, 06:35 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I think once the hype wears down and excitement of first kinda post pandemic blockbuster and Marvel movie in 2 years wears down, by next weekend, there will be huge drop.
Old 07-11-21, 06:47 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

If it makes between $600 to 800M total worldwide by the end of it's run, it's a win for Disney and Marvel.

It's very well reviewed as well. Right now it's 80% on RT and 92% audience score with 5,000+ verified audience reviews.
Old 07-11-21, 07:43 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by dex14 View Post
I think Disney wants to still be able to boast $100mil+ domestic.
Exactly...the film was even more frontloaded than thought for the wknd. It's headed for 400+ worldwide - a major disappointment for theaters. My initial projection of films capping at 700m looks likely for awhile, with only Bond or Spiderman maybe able to break through.
Old 07-11-21, 09:12 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
If it makes between $600 to 800M total worldwide by the end of it's run, it's a win for Disney and Marvel.

It's very well reviewed as well. Right now it's 80% on RT and 92% audience score with 5,000+ verified audience reviews.
guarantee it will never. Id bet on it.
Old 07-11-21, 09:22 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by OldBoy View Post
I think once the hype wears down and excitement of first kinda post pandemic blockbuster and Marvel movie in 2 years wears down, by next weekend, there will be huge drop.
Marvel movies apparently get a lot of replay viewings, which won't happen here since they can just plop $30 and watch it 40 times.

This opened beween Ant-man and the Wasp and Dr. Strange. Ant-man 2 hit $216m domestic/$623m worldwide, Doctor Strange hit $232m/$676m. I don't think it will hit anywhere near that with just theatrical receipts -- everything seems to be having big 2nd weekend drops. Especially with the insanely high Thursday night this had.

F9 opened to $70m and dropped 67% to $23m on weekend 2 and 53% to $10m on weekend 3. F9 is currently at $541m worldwide. Kong v Godzilla made it to $453m.

#1 worldwide is Hi Mom at $822m in 2021.

Last edited by RichC2; 07-11-21 at 09:38 PM.
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Old 07-11-21, 09:58 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

It's early but it looks like the big franchise films so far (F9 and BW) will likely have multipliers of less than 2.5 their opening wknd - not good, but it could be the new normal for awhile. A Quiet Place 2, despite a hefty 2nd wk drop, has actually held up the best - so that's encouraging.

I'm not rooting against BW, I'll be in the Dolby theater with a big bucket of popcorn tomorrow to see it, but if your calling balls and strikes... this was a disappointing opening. Disney will be fine (maybe even happy) with the additional D+ profit, but we're talking box office here, which is theaters.

Last edited by Artman; 07-11-21 at 10:11 PM.
Old 07-12-21, 12:35 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Artman View Post
Exactly...the film was even more frontloaded than thought for the wknd. It's headed for 400+ worldwide - a major disappointment for theaters. My initial projection of films capping at 700m looks likely for awhile, with only Bond or Spiderman maybe able to break through.
$80m isn't too bad. Lots of Marvel movies that weren't sequels were around that level or less and didn't have the streaming revenue. Black Widow is also not as well known of a character as the others and this movie is prequel to a character that's already dead in the Avengers movie. The movie's already done $158m worldwide without opening in China and some other markets. Adding in the streaming, it's generated $218m so far.

I think this may have a longer, more steady run in the theaters as there's not as many movies coming out compared to pre pandemic summers. Lots of people may not have wanted to go see the movie with larger opening weekend crowds, so they may wait a week or two until the theaters are less crowded. My friends are planning to see it in two weeks rather that going the first weekend.
Old 08-01-21, 11:35 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Weekend Estimates. Random stat: Jungle Cruise improved Saturday from Friday (+ Thursday previews) which has been rare during the pandemic.



Last edited by RichC2; 08-01-21 at 11:44 AM.
Old 08-01-21, 06:55 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Wow! While great #1 for JC and deservingly so, but $34 mil for a Disney opening. I wonder how much D+ PA cut into that. That can’t be good for theaters and they are the ones should sue, but I guess they don’t really have a leg to stand on since they count of these production companies giving them the films. Actually, not sure how it works, but theaters got to be still hurting, no? That sux.
Old 08-08-21, 01:03 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I know it's early but it looks like we'll be getting some pretty crooked numbers for The Suicide Squad... around 25m...ruh roh! I've got a few thoughts on this... 1) Even in the best of times, this was destined to be another example of the classic social media/fan hyped film not being of any interest to general audiences, just a big disconnect and likely a doomed project from the start. But 2) and far more concerning, people aren't going to the movies. Fans/avid moviegoers are... but that's about it, whether this is just temporary or permanent remains to be seen. Granted other than F9 this hasn't been a strong slate of films... but we're going on three months now of being opened up.

Last edited by Artman; 08-08-21 at 10:11 AM.
Old 08-08-21, 01:01 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

So I haven't posted in this thread, and I have a few (non-title specific) thoughts. And none of them are good lol.

Theater viewership is down, and has been for what...10+years? And for that, I'm talking pre-pandemic. Sure we get huge blockbusters, but ticket prices keep rising. Viewership is down. Streaming, and earlier home video windows are helping that. That can probably be attributed to outdated cinema models. There needs to be a better way to make money for theaters and the movies in those theaters. But that probably means Production companies making less, so that will never happen. Theaters need to change, and that's not cheap. I love the comfy seats, the alcohol/new food, great screens etc...but that increases the ticket price, and soon I'll say **** it and just watch from home. And I'm sure a good majority of the general population already said that.

Yes, Covid took/is taking a toll on theaters. Certain industries are bouncing back (pre-Delta), but theaters really aren't. And i think this was going to happen sooner or later. People don't mind going out and socializing. But to socialize in a dark room and not talk or use your phone? I just think the theatrical experience is becoming more and more niche. I don't believe any of these movies would have set the box office on fire during normal times. But I don't think we can blame Covid for everything. Or streaming for everything.

I think theatrical distribution and it's model was bleeding out to begin with...but i think Covid and streaming twisted that knife.

We gotta figure out a way to save theaters, and I don't think we can
Old 08-08-21, 01:41 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I personally think the "theaters are done" mentality is way off base. But I get where it's coming from.

Weekend #s:




Old 08-08-21, 02:09 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I don't think theaters will ever die. It's still a very important line of revenue for the entertainment industry.

However, I don't think COVID is entirely to blame for box office revenue being down right now. There's simply endless amounts of entertainment options to consume at home. Netflix is dropping new shows and movies every week. HBO Max is dropping new stuff every month and so forth. Most of you here with work and families probably barely enough time to chill and watch something for 2 hours. There's just no time to keep up and watch everything new coming out. When push comes to shove, I think many are now more inclined to not get dressed, hop in the car and drive to the local cinema. To go to the movies, you need to make the time to do it and be prepared to spend some money.

I don't blame you all for taking full advantage of using the HBO Max day and date option. if some studio says here you can watch this brand new Hollywood release legally on a service you already pay for, the vast majority of you are not going to want to leave the house and spend money to see it.

Last edited by DJariya; 08-08-21 at 02:16 PM.
Old 09-03-21, 12:12 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Figured a bump was in order as this will probably be the most consequential wknd for the rest of the year's schedule. I went back to look at Black Widow's daily numbers (thank goodness Box Office Mojo still provides those) and it made nearly 50% of it's wknd on Thurs/Fri. (just under 40m) but Shang-Chi has some things going for it - an origin story, and this being a 4day wknd. Friday will be a big day but it shouldn't be 50% of it's take. I think we can breathe a sigh of relief if it makes 25m on Fri, that likely means at least a 55m wknd. (with hopefully 10m+ on Monday) Just got back from seeing it, and while I loved it... I'm not as confident in it's box office potential, but fingers crossed it'll do well enough.
Old 09-03-21, 10:36 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

It made $8.8m on Thursday (rolls into Friday's sum)

BW made $13.2m
Old 09-03-21, 10:41 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Black Widow was highly anticipated for over a year and has a known star. That’s not bad at all for a pretty unknown IP.

If this makes between $45 and 60M opening weekend, I think that’s a win. Last night my showing was about 75 to 80 percent full. And I checked some AMC night shows today and a lot of them are almost sold out. So we’ll see.
Old 09-03-21, 10:47 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

My screening was more crowed than BW. There were A LOT of seats sold for multiple screenings.
Old 09-06-21, 11:09 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

This doesn't include Monday. It speaks for itself.

Old 09-06-21, 11:17 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

shit. that's pretty damn great!
Old 09-06-21, 05:35 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Great news, it looks like we'll have our first 200m+ domestic movie! A different MCU film than I thought, but at least it shows big movies can still open if it's something audiences want to see.
Old 09-12-21, 01:21 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread



53% drop is fantastic for Shang chi and is a double edged sword for Disney as it sorta further legitimized ScarJo's suit.
Old 09-13-21, 07:22 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
and is a double edged sword for Disney as it sorta further legitimized ScarJo's suit.
Exactly. Not the extent that she asked for, but it still shows they fucked up.

Last edited by dex14; 09-13-21 at 11:52 AM.

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