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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 06-03-19, 09:39 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

A couple of weeks ago I would have said without question. Its Box Office has slowed much faster than I anticipated. Looks to top out at about $845-850 million US. Worldwide I thought it would be a lock that it would make 3 Billion. Now I don't believe it will. Should still manage to get to Avatar however.
Old 06-03-19, 03:45 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by SunMonkey View Post
Can Endgame pull another $75 million worldwide?
No problem on passing Avatar. Just match it against IW from last year which was out until August. Should get a nice bump when Spider-man comes out as well.

Old 06-07-19, 09:43 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Looks to me like Godzilla is going to nosedive this weekend. It was outgrossed - substantially - by Aladdin everyday this week.
Old 06-07-19, 03:03 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Ouch...the numbers may get higher than predicted but right now Deadline is saying Dark Phoenix might open to less than 37 million, yikes! Thank goodness Marvel can brush this off by pointing out that the X-Men films are not connected to the greater MCU films so any stink of failure given off by this film will not taint the greater MCU.

This combined with Godzilla also basically flaming out in its second weekend makes for an auspicious start to what on paper looked to me to be a potentially very lucrative summer at the theaters. Aladdin can only do so much heavy lifting on its own to keep the box office afloat, and speaking of, who knew Aladdin would turn out to be one of the better films of the summer, and a solid money maker to boot.

Almost forgot, even The Secret Life Of Pets 2 is only doing okay business considering how much bank the first made. At least Spider-Man Far From Home is coming down the pike, but again...on paper, it looked to me like this would be a good summer to constantly watch movies but it could turn out to be a bit of an off-year for Hollywood even taking into account Marvel’s massive success earlier this year.
Old 06-09-19, 02:36 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. $47,110,000 - 4,561 - $10,329 $48,035,000 $80 1
2 N Dark Phoenix Fox $33,000,000 - 3,721 - $8,869 $33,000,000 - 1
3 2 Aladdin (2019) BV $24,500,000 -42.8% 3,805 -671 $6,439 $232,385,926 $183 3
4 1 Godzilla: King of the Monsters WB $15,540,000 -67.5% 4,108 - $3,783 $78,597,097 $170 2
5 3 Rocketman Par. $14,000,000 -45.6% 3,610 - $3,878 $50,498,756 $40 2
6 4 Ma (2019) Uni. $7,820,000 -56.8% 2,816 +8 $2,777 $32,768,075 $5 2
7 5 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $7,400,000 -33.2% 2,776 -828 $2,666 $138,662,998 - 4
8 6 Avengers: Endgame BV $4,800,000 -40.3% 2,121 -984 $2,263 $824,365,940 $356 7
9 7 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $2,980,000 -57.1% 2,161 -986 $1,379 $137,401,719 $150 5
10 8 Booksmart UAR $1,577,259 -52.2% 1,134 -1,384 $1,391 $17,814,672 - 3
11 11 A Dog's Journey Uni. $1,360,000 +22.0% 631 -1,043 $2,155 $21,040,820 - 4
12 9 Brightburn SGem $560,000 -77.2% 1,013 -1,594 $553 $16,386,396 $6 3
13 10 The Hustle UAR $449,000 -66.0% 416 -991 $1,079 $34,462,355 - 5
14 15 Biggest Little Farm Neon $347,000 -20.3% 285 +10 $1,218 $2,451,404 - 5
15 12 The Intruder (2019) SGem $315,000 -60.7% 306 -501 $1,029 $34,951,180 $8 6
16 N Late Night Amazon $249,654 - 4 - $62,414 $249,654 - 1
Old 06-11-19, 11:08 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Inhumans99 View Post
Ouch...the numbers may get higher than predicted but right now Deadline is saying Dark Phoenix might open to less than 37 million, yikes! Thank goodness Marvel can brush this off by pointing out that the X-Men films are not connected to the greater MCU films so any stink of failure given off by this film will not taint the greater MCU.

This combined with Godzilla also basically flaming out in its second weekend makes for an auspicious start to what on paper looked to me to be a potentially very lucrative summer at the theaters. Aladdin can only do so much heavy lifting on its own to keep the box office afloat, and speaking of, who knew Aladdin would turn out to be one of the better films of the summer, and a solid money maker to boot.

Almost forgot, even The Secret Life Of Pets 2 is only doing okay business considering how much bank the first made. At least Spider-Man Far From Home is coming down the pike, but again...on paper, it looked to me like this would be a good summer to constantly watch movies but it could turn out to be a bit of an off-year for Hollywood even taking into account Marvelís massive success earlier this year.
Had it been good, we would have to read endless debates if Marvel should keep the Fox universe going or not. Bombing out is probably the best way to go before the reboot.
Old 06-14-19, 09:51 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Very early numbers for the weekend: Men in Black: International - $25M, Shaft - $8.5M, Late Night - $4.5M

https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-...ce-1202632705/
Old 06-14-19, 10:56 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TheMovieman View Post
Very early numbers for the weekend: Men in Black: International - $25M, Shaft - $8.5M, Late Night - $4.5M

https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-...ce-1202632705/
I still don't understand these articles. This article came out on Friday at noon. How can they know how much it will make on the weekend. They're also not very fair as they are already predicting BO failure and therefore prematurely creating negative press surrounding the movie.
Old 06-14-19, 11:08 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

3 bombs.
Old 06-14-19, 11:29 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by tanman View Post
I still don't understand these articles. This article came out on Friday at noon. How can they know how much it will make on the weekend. They're also not very fair as they are already predicting BO failure and therefore prematurely creating negative press surrounding the movie.
They get early number in and use comparisons with previous like movies to extrapolate estimates for the weekend. Obviously this will be off, but not by too much unless a movie overperforms on Saturday or Sunday.
Old 06-14-19, 11:53 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by tanman View Post
I still don't understand these articles. This article came out on Friday at noon. How can they know how much it will make on the weekend. They're also not very fair as they are already predicting BO failure and therefore prematurely creating negative press surrounding the movie.
Years of box office history and algorithms play into it. It becomes easy to predict based on early numbers. Pretty much every scenario has been played out before.
Old 06-15-19, 12:34 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Will Godzilla even make it to 100 million in the U.S.? Hell, will it even make it to 300 million overseas?
Old 06-15-19, 01:21 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Might barely make it past $100M since it's currently at $87M. No idea about the international box office. Not that it matters, it's another box office disappointment (to put it kindly) for Warner.
Old 06-15-19, 06:23 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Looks like MIB4 is making Dark Phoenix and Godzilla look like smash hits.
Old 06-16-19, 01:24 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TheMovieman View Post
They get early number in and use comparisons with previous like movies to extrapolate estimates for the weekend. Obviously this will be off, but not by too much unless a movie overperforms on Saturday or Sunday.
Originally Posted by E Unit View Post


Years of box office history and algorithms play into it. It becomes easy to predict based on early numbers. Pretty much every scenario has been played out before.
Yeah I get that but early numbers based on what? Like I said that was published on Friday at noon. Based off of Thursday preview numbers?
Old 06-16-19, 05:34 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by tanman View Post
Yeah I get that but early numbers based on what? Like I said that was published on Friday at noon. Based off of Thursday preview numbers?
I'm sure they look at pre-sales numbers. It's probably easier to track since theaters are more and more transitioning to reserved seating.
Old 06-16-19, 10:44 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread


ill do the proper listing tomorrow, here are estimates from boxofficemojo. MIB:I did $102m worldwide, and its budget was less than half of MIB3s $225m. Just to note. So while $28.5m domestic isn't ideal, it isn't exactly a trainwreck.

I wish we did a box office gross poll for Aladdin.
Old 06-16-19, 12:21 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

3 potential blockbusters in a row have underperformed. Godzilla's actually doing the best out of the three (the others being, obviously, Dark Phoenix and MIB4). Each one is doing worse than the one before.

This summer is shaping up to be a minor disaster for the studios. Spider-Man, however, should pull the season out of it's tailspin. But, man, I can't remember a summer with three major movies in a row underperforming like that.
Old 06-16-19, 05:49 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Umm yeah MIB 4 is a trainwreck gotta disagree there. It will drop at least 60% next week. Shaft ugh who thought that was a good idea? This summer really does not have much to offer other than sequels. Hobbs N Shaw if a spin-off that may do well. But the next best original move will probably be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Spider-Man and Toy Story 4 are givens.
Old 06-16-19, 05:58 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by d2cheer View Post
Umm yeah MIB 4 is a trainwreck gotta disagree there. It will drop at least 60% next week. Shaft ugh who thought that was a good idea? This summer really does not have much to offer other than sequels. Hobbs N Shaw if a spin-off that may do well. But the next best original move will probably be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Spider-Man and Toy Story 4 are givens.
You're probably right, but it still could have been worse. It'll at least still ultimately make its money back though with post-theatrical sales.

Shaft, as someone else pointed out, is due on Netflix overseas in a few weeks, which means it likely got its budget back in sales, pre-Box Office.

Most Summers are pretty much Sequels and Remakes anymore, it's annoying. Last summer was what, Deadpool 2, Solo, Ocean's 8, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2, Sicario 2, The FIrst Purge, Ant-man 2, Hotel Transylvania 3, Mamma Mia! 2, Equalizer 2, Unfriended 2, Mission Impossible Fallout?

Last edited by RichC2; 06-16-19 at 06:10 PM.
Old 06-16-19, 05:58 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Shaft wasn't a good idea, true, but seems like it was better suited in the dead zone of September, can't think it would have done worse...
Old 06-17-19, 06:42 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Actuals:

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N Men in Black International Sony $30,035,838 - 4,224 - $7,111 $30,035,838 $110 1
2 1 The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. $24,408,160 -47.7% 4,564 +3 $5,348 $92,652,550 $80 2
3 3 Aladdin (2019) BV $17,309,154 -29.9% 3,556 -249 $4,868 $264,043,468 $183 4
4 5 Rocketman Par. $9,420,441 -31.8% 3,021 -589 $3,118 $66,763,166 $40 3
5 2 Dark Phoenix Fox $9,354,868 -71.5% 3,721 - $2,514 $52,117,218 - 2
6 N Shaft (2019) WB (NL) $8,901,419 - 2,952 - $3,015 $8,901,419 - 1
7 4 Godzilla: King of the Monsters WB $8,788,845 -43.1% 3,207 -901 $2,741 $94,372,017 $170 3
8 7 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $6,401,225 -13.7% 2,033 -743 $3,149 $148,928,130 - 5
9 17 Late Night Amazon $5,255,643 +2,033.8% 2,220 +2,216 $2,367 $5,568,462 - 2
10 8 Avengers: Endgame BV $3,725,855 -23.5% 1,450 -671 $2,570 $830,700,214 $356 8
11 6 Ma (2019) Uni. $3,718,975 -52.5% 1,794 -1,022 $2,073 $40,458,970 $5 3
12 N The Dead Don't Die Focus $2,540,240 - 613 - $4,144 $2,540,240 - 1
13 9 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $1,292,238 -59.5% 984 -1,177 $1,313 $140,800,319 $150 6
14 10 Booksmart UAR $864,750 -45.8% 577 -557 $1,499 $19,752,169 - 4
15 11 A Dog's Journey Uni. $455,695 -65.6% 310 -321 $1,470 $21,819,250 - 5
16 18 The Last Black Man in San Francisco A24 $380,921 +61.9% 36 +29 $10,581 $733,087 - 2


It looks like basically everything corrected up thanks to Father's Day with John Wick reaping the best "guys night" benefit. Last Black Man in San Fran is off to a solid start, The Dead Don't Die is just doing so so.

Last edited by RichC2; 06-17-19 at 07:02 PM.
Old 06-19-19, 08:17 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by B5Erik View Post
3 potential blockbusters in a row have underperformed. Godzilla's actually doing the best out of the three (the others being, obviously, Dark Phoenix and MIB4). Each one is doing worse than the one before.

This summer is shaping up to be a minor disaster for the studios. Spider-Man, however, should pull the season out of it's tailspin. But, man, I can't remember a summer with three major movies in a row underperforming like that.
There's really not that much coming out this summer that has much potential. Toy Story 4 is coming out this week, but I havent seen many ads or promotion for it. Spider-Man Far From Home will be out in july and should get maybe $300-400M domestic. After that it is only The Lion King which should do ok, but why do two Disney live-action remakes of classic 90's animated movies a month apart?
Old 06-19-19, 08:20 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by movieguru View Post
There's really not that much coming out this summer that has much potential. Toy Story 4 is coming out this week, but I havent seen many ads or promotion for it. Spider-Man Far From Home will be out in july and should get maybe $300-400M domestic. After that it is only The Lion King which should do ok, but why do two Disney live-action remakes of classic 90's animated movies a month apart?
So they can be on their streaming service when it launches at the end of the year.
Old 06-19-19, 08:55 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by movieguru View Post
There's really not that much coming out this summer that has much potential. Toy Story 4 is coming out this week, but I havent seen many ads or promotion for it. Spider-Man Far From Home will be out in july and should get maybe $300-400M domestic. After that it is only The Lion King which should do ok, but why do two Disney live-action remakes of classic 90's animated movies a month apart?
Toy Story 4 is targeting animated shows, I've seen so many damn ads for that.

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