Daytripper

Was "Sin Nombre" not eligible this year? I thought it was the best foreign film I had seen in 2009. Even better than "The Prophet". And how about "North Face"?

Shannon Nutt

It's going to be "Avatar" (Picture), Bridges, Bullock, Monique, Waltz, and Bigalow (Director). If any awards deviate from those, I'll be shocked. Another boring year at the Oscars.

hardercore

No, I don't think it was eligible. Mexico is its country of origin, right? They submitted the film "Backyard" (El Traspatio).

hardercore

It was, however, eligible for the categories outside of Foreign Language film, but I don't think the Academy gave it much of a shot.

JumpCutz

Sadly, I think you are correct.

CharlieK

You think Best Pic & Director will split? I look at Avatar similar to Peter Jackson and LOTR::RTK; such an epic production that got pulled together so well and did huge box office that they're going to give Cameron the Oscar just for being able to pull it off.

Brent L

I'm going to say that Avatar doesn't win either one of those awards.

hardercore

If Hurt Locker can beat out Basterds for Screenplay on Oscar night, then we have our winner if you ask me. But if not, look to see where Editing goes... The producers seem to have cottoned on to people's awareness of its strange predictability of Best Picture and of late have been scheduling it quite late into precedings -- I recall in the year when Departed won it was fourth to last, followed by Actor, Director and Picture.

But if Basterds takes Editing and Screenplay we could have an upset on the cards, especially with the preferential voting.

Calistoga

Does anyone know why "The Messenger" cannot currently be found on rental, for pre-order, or at theaters? I would like to see it before Oscar night.

Drexl

It's too soon for video, yet not mainstream enough for the multiplex? It's only in 36 theaters right now according to the past weekend's numbers.

RichC2

Somebody noted that if Avatar wins for Best Picture it will be the first time since 1932 that a movie with no Acting and no Screenplay noms won it. (Grand Hotel won in '32. It was not nominated for anything else, though the Oscars were a tad different back then)

brocklanders

I was thinking the same thing. How can a movie win best picture without even a nomination for adapted or original screenplay. Are the words not important?

Drexl

Titanic wasn't nominated for screenplay either. Cameron's movies are more about the execution than the script.

Avatar wasn't going to get any acting nominations anyway. The humans in Avatar probably didn't have enough to work with, and I think it will a long time before a motion captured performance is considered worthy of nomination by the acting community, if ever. Voice acting still isn't.

hardercore

Avatar could well walk away with the most awards on the night without winning a single one of the Top 8. The way I see it, it has Visual Effects in the bag, a huge shot at both sound categories, Art Direction, and perhaps score or Cinematography for 5. The Hurt Locker could take Picture, Director, Editing, and maybe Cinematography for 4. Basterds walks away with Supporting Actor and Screenplay (2), while Precious takes Supporting Actress (1) and Up in the Air Adapted Screenplay (1)

Brent L

That is close to exactly what I think will happen.

Mr. Cinema

Deadline Hollywood is reporting that the Oscar producers have said there won't be any singing performances of the nominated Songs this year.

This is EXCELLENT news! I have wanted them to get rid of all singing/dancing routines for as long as I've watched the show.

Unfortunately, it looks like dancing may still be involved.

Also, the producers are considering bringing back the Acting nominee introductions that were used last year. I hated that decision last year. I'd much rather them show a clip of the actor just before announcing their name as it's usually done. To me, that's better than having a previous winner standing on stage to give us a scouting report of their nominee.

hardercore

Apparently the producers of the show have also grilled all the nominees at the annual luncheon to keep the speeches short and sharp, imploring that laundry lists of names "are the most hated aspect of the show." They've encouraged nominees to seek a writer they know for help if needed when preparing their speeches, or to call them.

That and the TV spots proclaiming "tune in to see if Avatar will win Best Picture!" mean these guys are very serious about their ratings this year.

hardercore

By the way, a few more guilds handed out their prizes:

The Art Directors went for Sherlock Holmes (Period), Avatar (Fantasy) and the Hurt Locker (Contemporary).

The Editors went for The Hurt Locker (Drama), The Hangover (Comedy), Up (Animated) and The Cove (Documentary)

conscience

The most hated aspect of the show are the endless bad jokes from the host(s) - when you look to people like Bruce Vilanch for jokes you need help, endless montages and stupid dance concepts. The winners deserve to thank whoever they want.

Mr. Cinema

Since Basterds is ineligble for the WGA, it's likely that Hurt Locker will win that. I still think Basterds will take the Oscar for Original Screenplay.

But assuming HL gets the WGA, it will go into the show with DGA, WGA, PGA, and Editing award. That's a nice resume. The new voting system could make all of that irrelevant, but that's a solid amount of momentum to have.

Basterds did manage the SAG ensemble, which helps alot. Crash also won that over Brokeback Mountain years ago.

Even though Avatar's only major win is the Globe, it should be right there. Hard to overlook a film that's made $2.3 billion.

I do think this will be another spread the wealth year. I think whatever wins Editing on Oscar night will win Picture. The scenarios I see are: if Hurt Locker does win Editing, it takes Picture and Director, giving it at least 3. I'm sticking with Avatar to take 5: Art Direction, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects, although I'm less confident on Cinematography. But the film is one giant technical achievement that I think voters are just going to check it for almost every tech category.

Basterds "should" take Original Screenplay as its runner-up prize and also of course, Supporting Actor.

Now, it could turn out to be a Hurt Locker lovefest, especially if it does beat Basterds for Original Screenplay. Then I could see it grabbing cinematography, in addition to the other 3 I mentioned, which would give it 5 wins. Could be a similar deal that Slumdog experienced, where every voter just checked it for anything. But that was probably more due to the fact that they weren't really excited about any of the other choices, so Slumdog won the tech stuff by default. Based on nominations, there are alot of favorites this year.

If Avatar or Basterds wins Editing, then I see them taking the top prize, even though I think Bigelow is pretty much locked for Director.

As of now though, I'm leaning towards Hurt Locker with 3, Avatar with 5, Basterds with 2, Up in the Air and Precious with 1 major win each.

So unless Avatar somehow has a near sweep, I don't see anything getting more than 5. I don't mind that. Unlike last year, I like several of the big films, so I hope they all get something.

hardercore

Harvey's going balls-out to win Best Picture for Inglourious Basterds.... he's been quoted along the lines of "Best Director is out of the question... but it's Quentin's time and we are going for Best Picture and we will win it."

QT's also mentioned he was a great admirer of Bigelow and knows she'll probably win. That and he's got a crush on her.

I'm mixed but it's kind of nice to have a sleazy exec like Harvey Weinstein on "your side" when the big movie he's pushing is one you love, and not The Reader.

Daytripper

Do you think we could start another Oscar thread? A "who should win"/"who will win" discussion. Or start that here. I just didn't think most would see it.

RichC2

Yeah it's unusual for my favorite movie of the year to actually have a shot at winning. The last time this happend it was There Will Be Blood, and we know how that turned out. I'm finished.

islandclaws

I say we start a new thread for that. I just don't want to be the one to do it.

JumpCutz

As much as I would like to see it happen, Inglourious Basterds isn't going to win the Best Picture award.