bruceames

Here is the OD sales summary for this year so far:

Blu-ray up 6.2%
DVD down -13.6%
OD down 7.2%
Blu-ray share 36.7% (in revenue) up from 28.1% last year
Blu-ray share 23.4% (in units), up from 21.7% last year

Total box office power: up 22.6% (mainly due to Star Wars)

morriscroy

My tastes aren't quite as "esoteric" when it comes to media formats. (ie. I have no interest in VCD, VHS, laserdisc, etc ....).

But with that being said, I'm a big enthusiast of going through dump bins and finding $2/$3 dvd discs which are known to have a lot of additional basketcase drm (beyond generic css). I spend too much time reading the *.ifo files of dvd discs, largely to figure out how the extreme basketcase drm function.

I've even double-dipped "downwards" (ie. buying the dvd version AFTER I had already purchased the bluray) for quite a lot of titles, when I learned that a particular dvd disc had some interesting sounding basketcase drm on it. For example, such as a lot of titles produced by Lionsgate over 2006 -> mid-2015, Sony over late-2005 -> early-2007, New Line over late-2007 -> early-2008, etc ...

(I read a lot through the archives of various message boards, which discussed basketcase drm schemes which tripped up and/or crashed then-current dvd ripping/burning type programs).


In contrast, the drm on bluray discs isn't quite as exciting to decipher. A lot more straightforward to understand.

PhantomStranger

The studios want digital to win. Higher margins and much less risk of piracy. That is why UHD has an uphill battle establishing itself beyond niche status.

I want UHD to succeed. Hollywood is just waiting to pull the plug on physical media in the United States.

E Unit

Yeah but the drawback to digital is that it will guarantee they won't get any future revenue from those titles. Unlike the DVD/Blu days of double dipping.

bruceames

Hollywood prefers digital, but they are smart enough to realize that having both physical and digital maximizes the total revenue stream. Physical also creates a presence in stores, like free advertising.

They are focusing on digital right now, but sooner or later I think the pendulum will swing the other way. Digital will top out and physical will have a bottom. Physical is not going away, but at the same time I don't think there is room for 3 formats, with the pie getting smaller every year.

orangerunner

This is a good point as movies still need a physical presence as a form of advertising.

As a general observation, I find that if I go to a store selling physical media, my eyes can scan hundreds of titles in just a few minutes increasing the chance I will impulse-buy something that I did not plan on buying.

On the other hand with the internet it is usually more category-focused searches which, after scanning several limited-sized pages, I tend to get tired of scrolling and exit the site.

I also find that the lack of advertising in newspapers have contributed to my decreasing interest and knowledge of upcoming films playing in the theatres.
I relate to films by their advertising campaigns or even the fonts they use in the title of the film. When those seemingly simple things are out of sight, they are out of mind and the interest can be lost.

Coral

I was just browsing the Best Buy flyer and I noticed Deadpool UHD-BD at $34.99 CAD. After tax that comes out to roughly $39.53. Who the hell wants to pay nearly $40 for a freaking movie in 2016?

The BD release was "only" $24.99 CAD. Not great, but still a whole $10 cheaper. And in a month or so most places will have it for $19.99 and then it will be reduced to $14.99 soon afterwards.

I bet the UHD-BD price won't budge nearly by the same degree.

EDIT: Just looked up The Martian, which has been out a while... still $34.99 on UHD and only $14.99 on BD. Hard to imagine anyone wanting to pony up an extra $20 for the same movie.

Yea, UHD-BD will be very niche.

bruceames

Deadpool is only $26 is the U.S. ($6 more than the BD). Canadian pricing does look a little high. Was it like that there (the discrepancy between BD and DVD) when Blu-ray came out?

orangerunner

Most things are priced higher in Canada because of the low dollar. Right now $1.00 US costs about $1.33 in Canadian dollars. So the conversion of $26 US to Canadian dollars is $34.58.

Even when the dollar was at or near par, Canadian prices were generally more probably because the US has 10 times the population so sales volumes are higher in the US = lower prices.

I still recall HDDVD and Blu-ray were all in the $34.95 range for a new release whereas the DVD would be $24.95.

It looks like the Samsung UHD-BR player is still over $600 with tax.

http://www.bestbuy.ca/en-CA/product/...bfcc97a117en02

Coral

I don't remember the discrepancy being that much.. especially a month or longer after release - the difference was definitely not $20. Plus the BD price point didn't start off as high as UHD is now.

This reminds me of SACD. Sony started pushing it just when less people were buying CDs and had no problem sacrificing quality (or even noticing it) for the convenience of MP3. And now we have them pushing UHD at a time when people are giving up physical media for movies and are just streaming.... and they're charging a premium to boot.

UHD should be coming in at BD pricing, and BD pricing should be lower. Not that I think it'll make much of a difference, but you have to at least make an honest effort.

$40 for a movie in 2016. Good luck with that.

AaronSch

We can all agree that physical media isn't dead....yet. But the studios have little leverage when the consumer begins to make different choices. Many of us buy the majority of titles via the internet, so retailers are simply responding by allocating less floor space to media. That means the in-store advertising component is hardly a factor. Print ad revenue is all but dead as well because most people aren't buying magazines and newspapers. Advertising revenue has shifted to the digital realm because of the consumer—period.

My old man would get up in the morning, grab a cup of coffee and read the newspaper. These days we grab our cup of coffee and turn on the computer, laptop or tablet. You can have access to a myriad of music choices in the palm of your hands. Many people now read books on their tablets in favor of paperbacks and hardcovers. Media is moving to digital faster than I ever expected 20 years ago. The marketplace will continue to determine what will survive. There's no point in debating that thorny issue again. Physical media will indeed bottom out but it's not likely the pendulum is ever swinging back. As Bill Hunt pointed out in his article, the studios have little interest in niche audiences—there's not much money in it.

I'm sure there was a time when blacksmiths felt the pendulum would swing back in favor of riding horseback for daily transportation...

orangerunner

I actually have an old Canadian Best Buy flyer from March of 2008 showing "Hitman" as a day-one new release with the DVD priced at $24.99 and the Blu-ray priced at $32.99. At the time the Canadian and US dollar were virtually at par.

The ad also shows "Gattaca" Blu-ray at $28.99 (the DVD counterpart was probably in the $5 bin at the time), August Rush at $32.99, Ice Age at $34.99.

For DVD "No Country For Old Men" was $24.99 & Dan in Real Life was $22.99.

Basically the price spread was more-or-less the same as it was eight years ago.

I think only really good deals we had in Canada were records, tapes and CDs through the 1980s and 1990s in Vancouver with A&B Sound leading the charge.

A&B Sound was a BC/Alberta chain of electronics and record store that always had new release CDs for around $12.99 which was considerably cheaper than anywhere else in the world at the time. I still remember American sailors getting off the boat and coming out of A&B Sound with stacks of CDs because they considered so cheap to buy here.

AaronSch

Don't doubt the creativity of the entertainment industry.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see services like Flixster and VUDU introducing access fees to subscribe and maintain your digital collection. Once physical media is dead they will create new revenue streams. One price for movie only another price for supplements and commentaries or 3D...perhaps even different rate structures similar to HULU. You would have the choice of commercial free and the other just like watching your movies on broadcast television—chock full of advertising.

The development we are most likely to see is their ultimate dream...a cheaper, limited viewing window with no permanent ownership. They tried to pull that crap years ago with DIVX (Digital Video Express), an unsuccessful attempt by Circuit City and the entertainment law firm Ziffren, Brittenham, Branca and Fischer to create an alternative to video rental in the United States. It was a variation on the DVD player in which a customer would buy a DIVX disc (similar to a DVD) for approximately US $4, which was watchable for up to 48 hours from its initial viewing. After this period, the disc could be viewed by paying a continuation fee to play it for two more days. Viewers who wanted to watch a disc an unlimited number of times could convert the disc to a "DIVX silver" disc for an additional fee. The "DIVX gold" discs that could be played an unlimited number of times on any DIVX player were announced at the time of DIVX's introduction, but no DIVX gold titles were ever released. This idea is a studio "wet dream" and if they can kill physical media and move the consumer in that direction they certainly will.

I think all bets are off once physical media is dead and the consumer has no alternatives. The studios will likely squeeze every penny out of the consumer they can draw. They could even develop their own proprietary services and sell directly to consumers. They wouldn't have to share revenue with anyone. Cha ching!

Why So Blu?

We have DIVX now minus the disc. It's VOD, VUDU, PRIME, ITUNES, etc. The prices are about the same but if you decide to buy the film you may or may not pay less for the digital version. It's the excess physical gear that is gone. No dedicated DIVX player and no discs. It's all in the ether.

AaronSch

Exactly. But when physical media is gone they do not have to offer permanent ownership at all. The collecting component will be of interest to few because packaging—the tangible component will be dead. I have roughly 400 digital movies on VUDU and iTunes only because they were "free" digital copies that came with the disc. I have never been motivated to purchase a digital copy and I have never used those services to actually view a movie. The death of ownership is a studio "wet dream" and if they can kill physical media and move the consumer in that direction they certainly will. You wanna watch a movie again? Fine, pay an additional fee. I suspect that is where the suits want to see this heading. They can bypass all of these services and sell directly to the consumer. We're coming full circle, many years ago the studios owned their own theater chains. Once physical media is pretty much dead, they can do whatever they want and the profits will be far greater than they had previously realized.

morriscroy

This assertion ^ rests upon an implicit assumption that there will still be a significant market for movies, once physical media is "dead".

The question is whether millenials are still interested in paying to watch movies in an a-la-carte manner. If millenials are not interested in watching/paying, then the movie companies will not have as many customers to fleece.

ie. Will dvd/bluray "pennies" become purely digital "micropennies" ?

Coral

I'm probably not remembering right... or the prices may have been a bit different in Ontario.
In any case, that was 2008. BD was only competing against DVD for the most part. Netflix was still doing decent business renting out DVDs and their streaming service was in it's infancy. A lot has changed in the 8 years since. Streaming is huge and the way people consume media is so different. Today it's about watching what you want, when you want and where you want. The business model of selling a single movie for close to $40 (or even $25) is severely outdated.

I'll continue to buy BDs, but only for a movie that a)I love, b) has high replay value and c) is priced $10 or less. I figure my BD collection will max out at around 50. Any more than that, and I'd be filling up shelf-space for nothing.

AaronSch

I think its a safe assumption to say millenials and those who come later will continue to have a desire to be entertained. People haven't changed in hundreds of years—only the medium has changed. They will be the target of online marketing and they will pay to watch movies and other forms of entertainment far into the future—way past our eventual demise. And whatever representation of money you wish to use, pennies, nickels dimes dollars...even "micropennies," the studios will profit handily.

Remember, 30 years ago or so a minute number of people "owned" movies. Prior to the introduction of VHS tapes, the best most could do was a 15 minute 8mm condensed movie with subtitles—no sound. So collecting movies and television shows by the "average joe" has only been popular for a relatively short time. What comes next is anyones guess but I see collecting discs a minuscule niche hobby within my lifetime.

Alan Smithee

There is some legal-ese in the Ultraviolet user agreement saying exactly that- they can basically do whatever they like and you won't have any recourse over it. (There was similar verbage in the DIVX user agreement which got a lot of people hot and bothered, but they're giving UV a full pass here since it's "cool".) Some have said pulling movies and/or charging access fees for them would be a PR nightmare, but don't think they won't at least try it! Amazon Video's interface on the Roku was also changed to have a menu of "suggested titles" pop up onscreen as soon as the end credits started- this applied to movies and shows you had BOUGHT, not just watched for "free" with Prime. (I hadn't bought any movies through them, but did have a number of Universal and Disney movies I had gotten for free.) I complained loudly to them about that and stopped doing business with Amazon entirely, and after a few months they had finally disabled the pop-up menu, but again it just shows who's REALLY in control over your collection. Of course people are going to say they don't care about the end credits anyways, but the point is that Amazon decided FOR YOU what parts of the movie weren't important- and who's to say they wouldn't eventually intrude on part of the movie that you DID care about? Pausing for a commercial break in the middle is certainly a possibility. And if you hate the hard-to-skip previews at the beginning of discs, just WAIT until digital services start showing pre-movie previews that you have no choice but to let play all the way through before you can start the movie! Yes, the ads will be front-and-center with no way to skip them, but they'll find ways to intrude on and interrupt the actual movie that you're paying for! And if that happens, I'll gladly just stop collecting and enjoy all the physical media I already have.

AaronSch

You are absolutely right. The best way to predict future behavior is past behavior and the studios have been jonesin' for this scenario for the last three decades. That's why I am snappin' up Blu-ray discs at a rapid pace and do not feel motivated to jump on a new format. I have nothing against UHD but I can grab 10 titles right now for about $50 through various venues. I'd rather invest in growing my library before many titles are made unavailable. Studio support is waning for all packaged media and the best versions of theses films (as far as content) have already been released. As Bill Hunt has pointed out "the golden age of special editions is dead."

I do as little business with Amazon as possible. Unless it is an incredible deal, I take my business elsewhere.

PhantomStranger

Digital music sales fell like a rock when widespread music streaming became popular. The music industry has lost billions in total revenue in the shift from physical media to digital. Hollywood thinks movies are different in how they are consumed, but Hollywood will merely get more draconian laws passed if their revenues start getting threatened.

bruceames

Deadpool UHD is at #6 on the Amazon Top 10 best seller list (Movies and TV). Not bad for a new format that everyone says will be a niche of a niche.

Alan Smithee

That's interesting- I haven't really kept in touch with music sales lately but it always seemed like the majority of digital music downloads were of the free illegal sort. I don't know why anyone would pay $10 or more for an album that was simply a downloadable file with no cover art or anything- and what if the device you save it to breaks? If music is worth buying, then it's worth buying on CD or better. I use the free version of Spotify which has been great for discovering stuff I wouldn't hear on the radio, if it's something I like then I go buy it.

bruceames

Problem is for me if I do that then I'll have 10 titles that won't get played. I'd rather buy 2 UHDs. Better quality and most important at least I know I'll watch them.

Except for some really oddball BDs (like classic 3D, foreign movies or some concert or doc), I'm done with Blu-ray until I can catch up with what I already bought. It's so easy to get caught up in sales and suddenly find you have literally hundreds of titles you haven't watched yet. And prices get cheaper every year which certainly doesn't help. So maybe the irony for me is that I can actually save money by focusing on the new format since not much is released on it, but it will keep me distracted from Blu-ray's lure.

Coral

That's really not saying much.

A new release like that will get a quick burst at first and then die out. The same thing happened when BD was initially launched.
And at this stage, Amazon probably isn't selling nearly as many physical titles as they used to. So the sales number will be relatively small.

And you'll notice there's only one other UHD title in the Top 100 - The Revenent at #93 (the BD is at #4 and DVD at #17). In another week it'll drop off the list. You'll see the same scenario for Deadpool.

It'll be a niche of a niche, no doubt. Prepare to be disappointed.