That's the way I see it shaking down as well.

Maybe if standard DVD players get phased out by Blu-ray players (which means BR players will have to sell under $50 at the low end), then you'll see BR replace DVD, but it's going to be a slow growth.

We have a PS3 and a 32" 720p LCD. Make no mistake, Blu-ray looks better than DVD on that set, but not by a lot. Most people probably wouldn't even notice a difference.

Blu-ray isn't going to become the standard until most people have 60"+ screens.

Turn on you're PS3. A firmware update is waiting for you

For a system that is 18 months old we have far more then 18 different updates since launch. Weekly? No, but every 2-3 weeks we get another update.

http://www.xtremeps3.com/firmware.php

1. Firmware Version 2.30
2. Firmware Version 2.20
3. Firmware Version 2.17
4. Firmware Version 2.10
5. Firmware Version 2.01
6. Firmware Version 2.00
7. Firmware Version 1.93
8. Firmware Version 1.92
9. Firmware Version 1.90
10. Firmware Version 1.82
11. Firmware Version 1.81
12. Firmware Version 1.80
13. Firmware Version 1.70
14. Firmware Version 1.60
15. Firmware Version 1.5X
16. Firmware Version 1.3X
17. Firmware Version 1.11
18. Firmware Version 1.10

Far less than "far more then 18."

Adams Media Research said that Blu-ray will outpace DVD in spending in 2012, and in units a year later.

I don't remember you voicing such concerns back when Universal released An American Werewolf in London on HD DVD and it sold all of 805 copies in 3½ months. But now Predator sells 5,400 copies in its first week and it's a disaster.

I have played nice. I certainly haven't called other forum members "you cowardly spinjobs." But since the moderators haven't taken any action (even after having "read through the last few pages"), I guess it's acceptable.

You want data points? I'll give you data points.

Data point 1:
In Q2 2007 Blu-ray unit sales were 768,000. That's an average of a little over 49,000 units per week.
In the week ending April 27, 2008 (which, as we have established, didn't have any big day-and-date titles to push sales), Blu-ray sold around 250,000 units.
That's 400% growth over the unit sale weekly average for the same quarter on the previous year. [actually, unit sales on this slow week were higher than the average weekly sales over Q4 2007]

Data point 2:
In 2007 Blu-ray disc sales were $172.8 million, or an average of $3.23 million per week. In the week ending May 4, 2008, they were $7.08 million.
So sales in a slow Q2 week were more than twice the average sales of the complete previous year (including the Q4 07 shopping season).

Data point 3:
In 2007 disc sales were $16 billion; Blu-ray sales were $172.8 million, and HD DVD sales were $97.2. Therefore, Blu-ray sales in 2007 were 1.08% of total disc sales (in dollars)
In the week ending May 4, 2008 consumers spent $101.25 million on DVDs and $7.08 million on Blu-ray. It follows that on that week (disregarding HD DVD sales), Blu-ray sales were 6.54% of total disc sales (in dollars).
Therefore, the share of BD in total disc sales has increased sixfold over the previous year (including the Q4 07 shopping season).

Except some people want us to be frightened (sic!) while we watch our Blu-ray movies because they could stop being released.

Three bolded quotes, three spinning percentage style comparisons. Whee.

Are we still talking about a dead and buried format?

Alternative version with only absolute numbers for the percentage-impaired

Data point 1:
Weekly average in Q2 2007: 59,000
Sales in week ending 4/27/08: 250,190


Data point 2:
Average weekly BD sales in 2007: $3.23 million
Sales in the week ending 05/04/08: $7.08 million

Data point 3:
Disc sales in 2007: $16 billion total, $172.8 million BD
Sales in the week ending 05/04/08: $101.25 million DVD, $7.08 million BD

You do the math

It was alive at the time. And when it was alive, no fears were expressed about how studios would stop releasing catalog sales because sales were so low.

I totally disagree with you. Gizmo, who many would consider HD DVD's number one fanboy (no disrespect intended) was very critical of the the low low numbers of catalog titles that were moving. Josh Z, Adam Tyner and many others also voiced similar concerns.

Stop with the revisionist history.

Just checking...why are updates so bad?

I'm happy that Sony is constantly trying to improve the PS3...just like I was happy when Toshiba was sending out updates for my A2 that either improved functionality or fixed a bug.

Maybe I'm alone in this...but I think some of the updates have been pretty sweet...I'm either getting new functionality or content that wasn't available when I first bought the system.

But never to the extent that studios may stop releasing them. When bunkaroo said:

Gizmo retorted:

(emoticons included)

*********

Josh commented about Fox BDs. And BTW he actually thought that when Fox went into hiatus, it affected only their catalog releases (he was wrong BTW).

With regard to HD DVD catalog sales, he happily shrugged it off. When Adam said, very reasonably:

Josh simply quipped:

Does that look like a frightened person?

Just a statistical point, but you are comparing average weekly sales in 2007 to sales on one particular week in 2008. This is not a valid statistical comparison. There are are many reasons why that particular week could be an aberation and not representative of a typical week in 2008 (high profile releases, etc.) The only way to tto get a true comparison is by using aggregate data for 2007 v. 2008 whick we can't get until sometime in 2009.

OK, first one this month.

It's hard to take you seriously when you consistently blow stuff out of proportion. That's not a personal attack - that's the truth.

If it's not weekly, don't say weekly. If it's not 2 out 3 BD's getting tossed, don't say it. I don't understand the constant need for hyperbole. You can make your case on the facts as is; not by distorting them.

I have over 100 BD's

Sales in 2007 include the Q4 high-volume season. And there were no especially high-profile releases on the week ending April 27, or May 5.
So if anything, I'm making 2008 sales look worse than they really are.

Blu-ray is the sole HD Disc media now. Period. HD DVD is dead. If Blu-ray fails, whats next? There was not much concern over catalog titles when there were two formats because, well, there were two formats. One was eventually going to pull the lead over the other.

Now we have Blu-ray that won and nothing has changed. Sales have gone up a little, but SA players sales sunk even lower. All of us (for the most part) want Blu-ray to succeed because we want a Disc based media...not download. If that disc based media does not sell, we should be worried.

Ive expressed fear before about HDM catalog titles. Ive said several times the low sales of "Wolf Creek" for example.

But don't studios make money on new releases like Transformers and Pirates? If so, then I'd think they'd be willing to "subsidize" the format a little with catalog titles to net a gain with everything else. Not saying we'd get a ton of catalog titles, but I still think some can be expected.

You know, I was not even dissing the PS3. I simply wanted a player that didn't have a damn update every time I turned it on that added 0 new things to my Blu-ray experience. Some of you guys get way to defensive over something that was not even a talking point.

Yeah, slow couple of weeks on the HD front, though I'm curious how many copies Golden Compass and 27 Dresses actually sold.

I will say for April 27th, 9,000 copies sold for the worst movie of 2007 (personal bias, of course) really isn't that bad considering it was in its second week. Back catalog is having some issues but I'm sure the studios foresaw that before they were released, it'll be an uphill battle for sure but not one that can't be won at some point. I'm assuming production doesn't cost as much as many are predicting, especially since most of these movies were remastered in HD for prior DVD releases.

It's still a young format with an overpriced player that doesn't make a difference on a lot of TVs out there, give it time.

There's a simple solution for that, since there really isn't any BD Live content yet, why not keep your PS3 unplugged from the 'net? If you're using it just for BD, there is no reason for it to be plugged in to begin with. If you are using other features, then you really have no place to complain. I agree with the complaint for one thing, PSN is so ridiculously slow when it comes to upgrades, it can take upwards of 30 minutes depending on when you log in. I'm sure you could also disable auto log-in to help out.

...but anyway, just to humor the fellow forum member, I've looked for a more apples-to-apples comparison:

Data point 4:
Sales between April 22 and June 17, 2007 (eight weeks) were about 437,000 units, or an average of about 54,600.
Sales in the week ending April 27, 2008 were 250,190.

Is that going up "a little"? Maybe in a world where your PS3 gets a new firmware every week.

I agree wholeheartedly. A fantastic example of this principle is your closest video rental store. Probably half (and I'm being generous) of their stock is just "filler", made up of a bunch of old, crappy titles which nobody rents. EVER. Those titles are simply there to give the perception that the customer has a larger selection than they really do.

Please don't try to tell me what I have or have not said. I commented on the poor sales volumes for both formats countless times. To which I was told repeatedly that it was all the format war's fault, that the masses were waiting on the sidelines for a winner, and that as soon as Blu-ray won the format would explode through the stratosphere. Unfortunately, no such thing happened, or apears ready to happen any time soon.

During the format war, competetition drove both sides to crank out titles in a desperate bid to grab more attention than each other. Both sides ate losses as a result. It was what they were prepared to accept at the time. Well, now the format war is over, and the new battle is one for profitability. With no more format war to use as an excuse, the studios will be forced to justify their continued losses to their shareholders. If there's no sign of these trends turning around, they will take action accordingly. That's how business works.