Grand Theft Auto IV is a landmark release in the open-world crime series, not only because it's the first of this generation but also due to the fact that it's releasing simultaneously on Sony's PlayStation 3 and, for the first time, Microsoft's Xbox 360. Not surprisingly, both console manufacturers are working hard to align their systems with the game in an attempt to push hardware sales -- Microsoft playing up the downloadable content that will be exclusive to the Xbox 360 version this fall and Sony reinforcing that GTA IV is a strong PlayStation franchise. But which company and console will actually benefit more from tomorrow's release?

Looking at data from various sources on the web, it seems like more units of the Xbox 360 version of GTA IV will be sold -- though this is not that surprising when you consider that the Xbox 360 installed base is still larger than the PS3's in the U.S. According to a poll administered by Joystiq, 58% of the over 40,000 respondents are planning to buy the Xbox 360 version. 1UP Editor Anthony Gallegos ran a similar poll on his blog and also found that slightly more people were going with the Xbox 360 version. Analysis of user comments on both shows that the vast majority of people planning a 360 purchase cited either achievements or downloadable content as the main reason, with a sizable number also pointing to having more friends on the 360 to play multiplayer with. Those going with the PlayStation 3 version pointed to loud and unreliable 360 hardware as scaring them off. According to data posted on John Davison's blog, PS3 and 360 pre-orders of GTA IV are extremely close on Amazon. Currently on the major online retailer the 360 SKU is ranked #3 in videogames, with the PS3 version at #7.

While these largely North America-centric polls might paint one picture, GTA IV is also going to be a big game in other territories -- and the numbers there are telling a slightly different story. GameSpot Australia recently reported that GTA IV pre-orders for the PS3 are ahead of the 360 version in Australia. An EB Games representative told GameSpot that "it's neck and neck, but at the moment, PlayStation 3 is currently in the lead." Gametraders claims that they're pre-selling two PlayStation 3 copies for every one Xbox 360 copy.

In the U.K. retailers have said they are struggling to even keep up with the demand for the game based on pre-orders, according to MCV. Play.com's head, Gian Luzio, has claimed it as "the biggest selling title on PS3," admitting that he has been "really blown away by how quickly it's sold on PS3."

But the big question here isn't about how many units GTA IV will sell on each of these consoles, it's about how many units of each of these consoles GTA IV will help sell. Both Sony and Microsoft are spending lots of money to ensure that players equate the game with their brands -- perhaps more than they would to promote most of their own titles (in Europe, Microsoft stated that it's marketing spend for GTA IV will match that of last year's massive push for Halo 3). By now, regular readers of 1UP have no doubt spotted Microsoft's ads promoting GTA IV online play over Xbox Live on the site. Sony is also promising plenty of its own Sony-centric GTA IV advertising to appear "when you watch your favorite TV show and sporting event, surf the web, or even drive in your car."

So it's a battle for mindshare, but who will win that? Many are saying this is where Sony stands to benefit the most. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter told 1UP that while GTA IV will undoubtedly sell more units on Xbox 360, the game will have a higher attach rate on the PS3 -- he's predicted around 40% (3 to 3.5 million units) compared to an estimated 30% (5 million units) on the 360.


Here's the key, though: Despite seemingly unavoidable higher software sales on the 360, Pachter still believes that Sony will benefit more from the game's release in the end. He explains:

"In my view, the typical 'hardcore' potential 360 owner already owns one, purchasing over the first 30 months following launch for a variety of reasons (price, Xbox Live, Halo, Gears, etc.). In contrast, the typical 'hardcore' potential PS3 owner is still on the sidelines, also for a variety of reasons (it has only been 18 months since launch, price is still relatively high, an underdeveloped online experience, and there haven't been many 'must have' games so far). 360 owners had the Halo 3 launch as their reason to buy boxes, and we saw a 38% increase in console sales in the four months following the launch of that game. I think we are likely to see the same phenomenon with the PS3 following the GTA launch, and expect Sony to benefit more as a result."
Sony, obviously, seems to think so as well. "There is an obvious and strong brand association with consumers," SCEA vice president of product marketing Scott Steinberg told us. "We expect PlayStation gamers to look for GTA IV and many others to upgrade to Blu-ray gaming on the PS3 because of it." He admits Microsoft is smart in getting GTA IV as a simultaneous release for the Xbox 360, but downplays the positive result for them. "Clearly they understand the potential of GTA, but we have the legacy of having built a loyal community and brand association."

As for Microsoft's $50 million gamble on exclusive downloadable content, Steinberg doesn't seem too concerned about losing potential PS3 buyers to Xbox 360 because of it. "Without question GTA IV will be huge and a game that consumers play for a long time to come. It isn't something that is going to be completed in the first day, and has incredible replay value, so we expect gamers to be engaged with the GTA IV experience from April 29 well into the holiday season." And although he refuses to address the question directly, Steinberg perhaps hints at the PS3 seeing the same or similar downloadable content in the future. "Rockstar has developed a highly successful franchise and we expected GTA and PlayStation community only to continue its long-standing relationship."

Still, with so many potential new PlayStation 3 owners stemming from GTA IV's release, you'd expect Sony would be interested in bringing a PlayStation 3/GTA pack-in bundle to North America as they are in Europe and Australia. Don't hold your breath, though; Scott Steinberg tells us that SCEA "have no plans for a Grand Theft Auto IV PS3 bundle in North America" and are instead concentrating on the Metal Gear Solid 4 bundle.

In Pachter's predicted ending where Microsoft sees major software sales but Sony sees a major boost in hardware, both companies have to be pretty happy. Depending on the size of the PS3 boost, it could be enough to push Sony's machine toward finally closing the gap between it and the Xbox 360. Or, perhaps gigantic third-party software sales on the Xbox 360 will cement in Microsoft's lead with hardcore gamers.

Since we're dealing with something greater than just software sold numbers, the question of who gains the most from Grand Theft Auto IV will not be definitively answered for a long time yet. But whoever ends up on top, it's safe to say that gamers and the games industry are both going to benefit greatly. Just ask Iron Man.