Hokeyboy

No offense but come out of that cave you've been hiding in This thing is going to be MASSIVE. Incredibles 2 numbers at minimum.

B5Erik

Yeah, it's going to be a monster hit.

TheMovieman

Yep. Thinking at least $175M.

Hokeyboy

Toy Story 4 is currently tracking a worldwide debut of $260 million, with some say upwards of $300 million.

And currently 99% at RT.

This thing reeks of Flopsville

movieguru

I never said it was going to flop. I was just referring to what seems like a lack of promotion for this movie compared to others this summer or the other three movies in the franchise. I have yet to see a trailer pop up on anywhere on the internet or on television. Haven't noticed any special displays for their toys on endcaps at Walmart, but the Spider-Man ones have been out for well over a week now.

Sonny Corinthos

You can't walk in the Wal-Mart in my area without running into some kind of Toy Story 4 merchandise. Toys, clothes, sheets, curtains, etc. If it's Toy Story related, they have it and then some.

movieguru

Yeah, I've seen nothing in the few I've been at in my area, and I walkthrough the areas where there should be endcaps for them. I'm sure McDonald's will be doing the tie in with the Happy Meals but I havent gone to one in a few weeks. I just went on youtube to watch the trailer. It is has just not come up for me on as an ad on any streaming site, internet ad, or tv commercial, yet the new Spider-Man has come up many many times. I haven't really been into seeing the Toy Story movies since the second one, but I may take my daughter or nephew if they want to see it.

Hokeyboy

I find the marketing for TS4 near-inescapable.

But then I'm a Disney/Pixar fan so that in this day and age, that kind of marketing is targeting towards people like me (Google/Youtube ads, FB vids, etc.) Plus the various Disney owned media channels as well.

DJariya

movieguru

I'm not in a big a town as LA but our local Walmart stores always has the latest movie toy tie ins up at least several weeks before the movies come out. I did see the happy meal display at McDonalds today. I'm just more surprised that a trailer ad hasnt popped up as much as I am on the computer.

RichC2

Weekend Box Office #s (Sunday ests)

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	Toy Story 4	BV	$118,000,000	-	4,575	-	$25,792	$118,000,000	-	1
2	N	Child's Play (2019)	UAR	$14,055,540	-	3,007	-	$4,674	$14,055,540	$10	1
3	3	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$12,200,000	-29.5%	3,435	-121	$3,552	$287,510,128	$183	5
4	1	Men in Black International	Sony	$10,750,000	-64.2%	4,224	-	$2,545	$52,689,654	$110	2
5	2	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$10,290,000	-57.8%	3,804	-760	$2,705	$117,583,535	$80	3
6	4	Rocketman	Par.	$5,650,000	-40.0%	2,414	-607	$2,341	$77,328,389	$40	4
7	8	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$4,075,000	-36.3%	1,607	-426	$2,536	$156,067,424	-	6
8	7	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	WB	$3,700,000	-57.9%	2,368	-839	$1,563	$102,345,637	$170	4
9	5	Dark Phoenix	Fox	$3,600,000	-61.5%	2,054	-1,667	$1,753	$60,159,311	-	3
10	6	Shaft (2019)	WB (NL)	$3,555,000	-60.1%	2,952	-	$1,204	$15,941,394	-	2
11	N	Anna (2019)	LG/S	$3,535,000	-	2,114	-	$1,672	$3,535,000	-	1
12	9	Late Night	Amazon	$2,583,885	-50.8%	2,172	-48	$1,190	$10,672,864	-	3
13	10	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$1,895,000	-49.1%	985	-465	$1,924	$834,503,966	$356	9
14	11	Ma (2019)	Uni.	$1,200,000	-67.7%	862	-932	$1,392	$43,749,765	$5	4
15	12	The Dead Don't Die	Focus	$1,130,000	-55.5%	690	+77	$1,638	$4,757,915	-	2
16	16	The Last Black Man in San Francisco	A24	$413,589	+8.6%	72	+36	$5,744	$1,342,577	-	3

Aladdin has crossed $800m worldwide.

PhantomStranger

The studios have very sophisticated computer models that can fairly reasonably predict first weekend grosses based on a number of known inputs, including pre-sold tickets and social media mentions, among other things. Studios already know by Friday afternoon if they have a hit on their hands or a flop.

You have to remember that studios are now mostly run by MBAs and management consultants below the very top level. They don't know movies, but they surely know the numbers.

RichC2

Actuals, solid hold for Toy Story, the unnecessary re-release of Endgame got a big boost as well.

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Toy Story 4	BV	$59,700,331	-50.6%	4,575	-	$13,049	$238,690,140	-	2
2	N	Annabelle Comes Home	WB (NL)	$20,269,723	-	3,613	-	$5,610	$31,104,182	-	1
3	N	Yesterday	Uni.	$17,010,050	-	2,603	-	$6,535	$17,010,050	$26	1
4	3	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$10,114,122	-23.6%	3,235	-200	$3,126	$306,632,068	$183	6
5	5	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$7,320,435	-28.7%	3,353	-451	$2,183	$131,432,435	$80	4
6	4	Men in Black International	Sony	$6,686,491	-37.5%	3,663	-561	$1,825	$65,167,002	$110	3
7	13	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$6,108,736	+207.3%	2,025	+1,040	$3,017	$841,889,897	$356	10
8	2	Child's Play (2019)	UAR	$4,429,543	-68.6%	3,007	-	$1,473	$23,557,942	$10	2
9	6	Rocketman	Par.	$3,936,302	-29.8%	2,003	-411	$1,965	$84,240,262	$40	5
10	7	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$3,249,345	-20.5%	1,550	-57	$2,096	$161,389,433	-	7
11	8	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	WB	$2,135,771	-44.6%	1,370	-998	$1,559	$106,666,722	$170	5
12	10	Dark Phoenix	Fox	$1,824,778	-48.3%	1,187	-867	$1,537	$63,709,656	-	4
13	9	Anna (2019)	LG/S	$1,481,114	-58.9%	2,114	-	$701	$6,712,423	-	2
14	11	Shaft (2019)	WB (NL)	$1,425,597	-59.5%	947	-2,005	$1,505	$18,850,430	-	3
15	12	Late Night	Amazon	$1,094,088	-57.1%	871	-1,301	$1,256	$13,072,042	-	4
16	15	Ma (2019)	Uni.	$556,445	-51.6%	468	-394	$1,189	$44,754,145	$5	5

E Unit

Unnecessary for who?

RichC2

I meant underwhelming (personal input)

Sonny Corinthos

Child's Play is dropping like a rock. They should have know better than to release the film in the Summer.

RichC2

Spiderman made $39m on Tuesday and $26m estimated for today.

Obi-Wanma

I'm wondering if having a full opening it on a Tuesday actually hurt the take. My theater (and presumably others) has $5 movies on Tuesday, and it was valid for Spider-Man yesterday.

dex14

RichC2

Weekend estimates, Spider-Man did $185m for the six day. Dark Phoenix continues to impress /s.

OldBoy

almost $600m WW for FFH. deserves every bit...

RichC2

7/14 Estimates:

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$45,300,000	-51.1%	4,634	-	$9,776	$274,529,305	$160	2
2	2	Toy Story 4	BV	$20,665,000	-39.0%	4,210	-330	$4,909	$346,369,574	-	4
3	N	Crawl	Par.	$12,000,000	-	3,170	-	$3,785	$12,000,000	$13.5	1
4	N	Stuber	Fox	$8,043,000	-	3,050	-	$2,637	$8,043,000	-	1
5	3	Yesterday	Uni.	$6,750,000	-32.9%	2,755	+141	$2,450	$48,316,525	$26	3
6	5	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$5,873,000	-21.9%	2,557	-201	$2,297	$331,489,720	$183	8
7	4	Annabelle Comes Home	WB (NL)	$5,550,000	-41.3%	3,209	-404	$1,730	$60,760,434	-	3
8	6	Midsommar	A24	$3,551,571	-45.9%	2,707	-	$1,312	$18,406,842	-	2
9	7	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$3,100,000	-33.7%	2,320	-526	$1,336	$147,137,185	$80	6
10	8	Men in Black International	Sony	$2,215,000	-41.4%	1,612	-1,104	$1,374	$76,483,597	$110	5
11	10	Rocketman	Par.	$1,700,000	-34.9%	1,332	-77	$1,276	$91,974,910	$40	7
12	9	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$1,692,000	-45.7%	1,443	-542	$1,173	$851,200,139	$356	12
13	11	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$1,375,000	-35.4%	1,145	-348	$1,201	$167,538,716	-	9
14	N	Super 30	Relbig.	$923,912	-	317	-	$2,915	$923,912	-	1
15	12	Child's Play (2019)	UAR	$561,861	-62.4%	807	-900	$696	$28,287,378	$10	4
16	18	The Last Black Man in San Francisco	A24	$361,613	-16.2%	207	+19	$1,747	$3,336,797	-	6
17	N	The Farewell	A24	$351,330	-	4	-	$87,833	$351,330	-	1

Actuals later today. The Farewell debuted extremely well despite a showing being canned in NYC due to the power outage. Aladdin is flying up to $1b ww with only $40m to go.

RichC2

Weekend estimates, there was a last second downgrade on Lion Kings estimate, still huge.

TomOpus

Lion King over $530 million worldwide

RichC2

Actuals:

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$191,770,759	-	4,725	-	$40,586	$191,770,759	-	1
2	1	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$21,202,431	-53.3%	4,415	-219	$4,802	$319,861,843	$160	3
3	2	Toy Story 4	BV	$15,551,086	-25.8%	3,750	-460	$4,147	$376,484,435	-	5
4	3	Crawl	Par.	$6,095,561	-49.2%	3,170	-	$1,923	$23,930,371	$13.5	2
5	5	Yesterday	Uni.	$5,020,835	-25.2%	2,662	-93	$1,886	$57,517,300	$26	4
6	4	Stuber	Fox	$4,115,279	-50.0%	3,050	-	$1,349	$16,197,143	-	2
7	6	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$4,085,424	-33.8%	2,105	-452	$1,941	$340,326,138	$183	9
8	7	Annabelle Comes Home	WB (NL)	$2,601,687	-53.7%	1,981	-1,228	$1,313	$66,523,888	-	4
9	8	Midsommar	A24	$1,596,447	-56.5%	1,105	-1,602	$1,445	$22,479,475	-	3
10	9	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$1,535,065	-52.1%	1,380	-940	$1,112	$151,556,230	$80	7
11	11	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$1,514,741	-28.0%	985	-458	$1,538	$854,531,934	$356	13
12	19	The Farewell	A24	$1,145,320	+222.0%	35	+31	$32,723	$1,648,747	-	2
13	33	The Art of Self-Defense	BST	$1,080,607	+844.8%	550	+543	$1,965	$1,239,896	-	2
14	12	Rocketman	Par.	$964,239	-42.8%	720	-612	$1,339	$93,981,610	$40	8
15	13	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$630,393	-52.8%	584	-561	$1,079	$168,861,620	-	10
16	10	Men in Black International	Sony	$540,683	-75.6%	554	-1,058	$976	$78,164,791	$110	6