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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 12-19-17, 04:19 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I am impressed that Thor Ragnarok will probably get close to grossing what Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did domestically (when it finally leaves theaters it will probably be behind B V S by 10-12 million), and even worldwide gross will be fairly close to B V S worldwide (maybe behind B V S by 45-55 million). Not bad for the third film in a series, and especially good considering that Thor 2 Dark World made money but had one of the most "meh" reactions from theater goers in quite some time so people were not salivating at the idea of another Thor film.

I have said this at least twice already on DVD Talk regarding JL, but once again I want to say it was a pleasant surprise for me how fun the film was to watch but no matter how much enjoyment I and others received watching the film it is still a debacle for WB that they were not able to get more butts in seats.

Put it this way, plenty of folks think Age Of Ultron was a bit of a disappointment, both critically and some would even argue financially given its potential, but here's the thing even if you buy into that it was a 1.4 Billion(!) dollar grossing "disappointment" and I think we can all agree that WB would be insanely thrilled by a 1 billion dollar disappointment (heck they were thrilled when B V S disappointed with a nealy 900 million total gross not including home video/cable).

Hard to believe that JL will be out grossed domestically and probably internationally by Thor Ragnarok, but that is where we are at.
Old 12-23-17, 11:37 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Right now, TLJ is looking at between $102-112M for the 4-day weekend, but wouldn't surprise me if it's lower.

Edit: Deadline Hollywood, which had the upper end of $112M has lowered it to $102.5M (4-day).

Last edited by TheMovieman; 12-23-17 at 06:18 PM.
Old 12-24-17, 11:44 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

TLJ is down 68.9%, that's nearly double the drop of TFA (which fell only 38.9%). Now Christmas fell on Friday the 25th that year which gave it a boost, but still a hugh disparity
Old 12-24-17, 12:19 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

3-Day:

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $68,486,000 -68.9% 4,232 - $16,183 $365,088,356 - 2
2 N Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $34,000,000 - 3,765 - $9,031 $50,605,967 $90 1
3 N Pitch Perfect 3 Uni. $20,451,000 - 3,447 - $5,933 $20,451,000 $45 1
4 N The Greatest Showman Fox $8,600,000 - 3,006 - $2,861 $13,198,731 $84 1
5 2 Ferdinand Fox $7,050,000 -47.4% 3,630 +9 $1,942 $26,532,884 $111 2
6 3 Coco BV $5,208,000 -47.7% 2,111 -1,044 $2,467 $161,327,128 - 5
7 N Downsizing Par. $4,600,000 - 2,668 - $1,724 $4,600,000 $68 1
8 16 Darkest Hour Focus $4,105,000 +384.4% 806 +722 $5,093 $6,957,077 - 5
9 N Father Figures WB $3,200,000 - 2,902 - $1,103 $3,200,000 - 1
10 12 The Shape of Water FoxS $3,050,000 +78.3% 726 +568 $4,201 $7,615,665 - 4
11 4 Wonder LGF $2,000,000 -61.7% 1,130 -1,917 $1,770 $114,957,750 - 6
12 11 The Star Sony $1,375,000 -20.6% 1,106 -830 $1,243 $38,466,925 $20 6
13 5 Justice League WB $1,055,000 -75.5% 1,101 -1,601 $958 $222,678,455 - 6
14 10 Lady Bird A24 $1,005,627 -52.1% 402 -545 $2,502 $28,306,445 - 8
15 8 The Disaster Artist A24 $907,247 -66.6% 517 -493 $1,755 $15,717,648 - 4
Old 12-24-17, 12:21 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Despite the great reviews, The Disaster Artist has flamed out.

Yikes for both Downsizing and Father Figures, but hardly surprising.
Old 12-24-17, 05:03 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2
TLJ is down 68.9%, that's nearly double the drop of TFA (which fell only 38.9%). Now Christmas fell on Friday the 25th that year which gave it a boost, but still a hugh disparity
'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' Had Largest First to Second Weekend Box Office Dollar Drop in History
Old 12-24-17, 05:34 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

That's kind of a meaningless statistic. The previous record holder was The Force Awakens. And TLJ only beat it by 3 million. Breaking news: movies that make a shitload of money in their opening weekend have a precipitous drop in week 2
Old 12-24-17, 06:16 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Jabroni
That's kind of a meaningless statistic. The previous record holder was The Force Awakens. And TLJ only beat it by 3 million. Breaking news: movies that make a shitload of money in their opening weekend have a precipitous drop in week 2
It gives those most offended by the movie something to rally around. The 69% drop is far more damning than that record which I agree is pointless.
Old 12-24-17, 06:26 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Jabroni
That's kind of a meaningless statistic. The previous record holder was The Force Awakens. And TLJ only beat it by 3 million. Breaking news: movies that make a shitload of money in their opening weekend have a precipitous drop in week 2
It's a record nonetheless. This is the box office discussion thread yes? Are you personally offended the movie dropped so much? Do you have a personal stake in how much it makes?
Old 12-24-17, 07:09 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by DthRdrX
It's a record nonetheless. This is the box office discussion thread yes? Are you personally offended the movie dropped so much? Do you have a personal stake in how much it makes?
I absolutely do not, but it seems the haters certainly do.
Old 12-24-17, 07:45 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Obi-Wan Jabroni
I absolutely do not, but it seems the haters certainly do.
I don't see the issue, the movie is making less money then it's predecessor and had a bigger 2nd week hit, which can certainly be attributed to the quality of the movie. It seems like an accurate discussion point. But yeah, the percentage is more interesting then the dollar amount.

Last edited by fumanstan; 12-24-17 at 07:53 PM.
Old 12-24-17, 08:18 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by fumanstan
I don't see the issue, the movie is making less money then it's predecessor and had a bigger 2nd week hit, which can certainly be attributed to the quality of the movie. It seems like an accurate discussion point. But yeah, the percentage is more interesting then the dollar amount.
But Christmas being on a Monday skews the percentage quite a bit. Anyone thinking this was going to make as much as TFA is fooling themselves. TFA had the nostalgia factor goIng stronger, but this time not so much. Itís still looking at around $600m plus, maybe around $700m, which isnít anything to cry home about.
Old 12-24-17, 08:42 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Brack
But Christmas being on a Monday skews the percentage quite a bit. Anyone thinking this was going to make as much as TFA is fooling themselves. TFA had the nostalgia factor goIng stronger, but this time not so much. It’s still looking at around $600m plus, maybe around $700m, which isn’t anything to cry home about.
Oh sure, there are certainly other reasons for the difference in box office. I just think the quality of the movie is the primary reason and shouldn't be overlooked or chalked up to just haters (or from the other thread, "internet fanboy hatred"). With this weekend's estimates, there's currently a $175 million dollar difference between TFA and TLJ, which is more then just about holidays and nostalgia.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdow...oguevforce.htm

It'll be interesting to me what the box office is for the 3rd weekend and how it tracks versus Rogue One.
Old 12-24-17, 08:51 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by fumanstan
Oh sure, there are certainly other reasons for the difference in box office. I just think the quality of the movie is the primary reason and shouldn't be overlooked or chalked up to just haters (or from the other thread, "internet fanboy hatred"). With this weekend's estimates, there's currently a $175 million dollar difference between TFA and TLJ, which is more then just about holidays and nostalgia.
The extreme hype/build up as the first Star Wars in 30+ years to feature the Big Three cannot be overlooked. That was a HUGE reason for the massive opening and staying power. Movies that go darker in a series tend to not bring in as many people, thus quality is more or less a non-factor. Itís similar to how TPM played out vs AOTC, but with the grosses being significantly higher this time around.
Old 12-24-17, 10:51 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Brack
The extreme hype/build up as the first Star Wars in 30+ years to feature the Big Three cannot be overlooked. That was a HUGE reason for the massive opening and staying power. Movies that go darker in a series tend to not bring in as many people, thus quality is more or less a non-factor. Itís similar to how TPM played out vs AOTC, but with the grosses being significantly higher this time around.
Oh i'm not overlooking the nostalgia aspect, I agree that it's a big deal and played a big role in TFA's lasting power and huge opening. But TLJ had the second biggest opening weekend ever too behind TFA, and to me the 2nd weekend dropoffs usually are indicative of the quality of movie as we see how word of mouth holds up.

So I guess we disagree on it being a non-factor, I think if the audience reception was significantly more positive and not as mixed it would have held on much, much stronger in days following the opening weekend.
Old 12-25-17, 02:12 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

4-Day Estimates

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $100,669,000 -54.2% 4,232 - $23,788 $397,271,356 - 2
2 N Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $52,150,000 - 3,765 - $13,851 $68,755,967 $90 1
3 N Pitch Perfect 3 Uni. $25,601,000 - 3,447 - $7,427 $25,601,000 $45 1
4 N The Greatest Showman Fox $14,000,000 - 3,006 - $4,657 $18,598,731 $84 1
5 2 Ferdinand Fox $9,675,000 -27.8% 3,630 +9 $2,665 $29,157,884 $111 2
6 3 Coco BV $7,385,000 -25.8% 2,111 -1,044 $3,498 $163,504,128 - 5
7 N Downsizing Par. $7,280,000 - 2,668 - $2,729 $7,280,000 $68 1
8 16 Darkest Hour Focus $5,400,000 +537.1% 806 +722 $6,700 $8,255,077 - 5
9 N Father Figures WB $4,920,000 - 2,902 - $1,695 $4,920,000 - 1
10 12 The Shape of Water FoxS $4,300,000 +151.3% 730 +572 $5,890 $8,865,665 - 4
11 4 Wonder LGF $2,577,000 -50.7% 794 -2,253 $3,246 $115,534,750 - 6
12 11 The Star Sony $1,555,000 -10.2% 1,106 -830 $1,406 $38,646,925 $20 6
13 5 Justice League WB $1,550,000 -64.0% 1,101 -1,601 $1,408 $223,173,455 - 6
14 7 Thor: Ragnarok BV $1,154,000 -63.2% 701 -1,194 $1,646 $309,444,758 $180 8
15 6 Daddy's Home 2 Par. $1,100,000 -71.1% 1,073 -1,420 $1,025 $99,375,556 $69 7
16 17 Call Me by Your Name SPC $1,042,063 +114.2% 114 +84 $9,141 $3,329,854 - 5
17 N The Post Fox $830,000 - 9 - $92,222 $830,000 $50 1
Old 12-25-17, 02:27 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

After two whole weeks itís only the 28th highest grossing film of all time. What a disappointment.
Old 12-25-17, 04:44 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by fumanstan
Oh i'm not overlooking the nostalgia aspect, I agree that it's a big deal and played a big role in TFA's lasting power and huge opening. But TLJ had the second biggest opening weekend ever too behind TFA, and to me the 2nd weekend dropoffs usually are indicative of the quality of movie as we see how word of mouth holds up.

So I guess we disagree on it being a non-factor, I think if the audience reception was significantly more positive and not as mixed it would have held on much, much stronger in days following the opening weekend.
There's usually far more front-loading for sequels. TFA had 30+ years of anticipation, whereas TLJ had only two years, and while quality might have played a factor somewhat, I think it was inevitable that some folks simply weren’t going to go see the second film for a variery of reasons, maybe because no Han Solo, another death of a beloved character, etc. but I think the anticipation factor is the biggest factor. It’s similar to how people responded to ANH and TPM, but probably for different reasons, but mostly because of how much of an outlier those films were, in that they performed so extraordinarily well that it’s nearly impossible to replicate. TPM and TFA had anticipation on their side, and had far less to do with quality imo.

Last edited by Brack; 12-26-17 at 07:02 AM.
Old 12-25-17, 06:54 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Let's not also forget that The Empire Strikes Back did less than Star Wars or Return of the Jedi at the box office - despite it being considered in hindsight to be the best movie of the series.

The Last Jedi was going to drop to a significantly lower number at the box office compared to The Force Awakens no matter what.
Old 12-26-17, 03:06 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Brack
But Christmas being on a Monday skews the percentage quite a bit. Anyone thinking this was going to make as much as TFA is fooling themselves. TFA had the nostalgia factor goIng stronger, but this time not so much. Itís still looking at around $600m plus, maybe around $700m, which isnít anything to cry home about.
I agree, it's really resembling the OT... sequel drops by a third, the third film may be on par or a bit over. Definitely brings the SW series back down to Earth...the high end being 1.5b I think for any films going forward. Unfortunately the Solo film will continue the negative headlines...that may only make 6-700m. I really wish they scrapped it...
Old 12-26-17, 07:41 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

And James Cameron breathes a sigh of relief, with Avatar and Titanic still #1 and #2 of all time worldwide, successfully defending themselves from yet another contender for the throne.

I think they're safe until Episode XI at least. Even Infinity War won't threaten them.
Old 12-26-17, 03:02 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Artman
Unfortunately the Solo film will continue the negative headlines...that may only make 6-700m. I really wish they scrapped it...
At least it will help wipe out the memory of the prequels.
Old 12-26-17, 03:25 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Artman
IUnfortunately the Solo film will continue the negative headlines...that may only make 6-700m. I really wish they scrapped it...
I certainly don't. If done right, the Solo film could be a wonderful film. Bring it. The ball is in Disney's court to deliver. Keep your hopes up.
Old 12-26-17, 04:09 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Star Wars also came and finished off Justice League which is basically done already and won't even come close to Man of Steel. Crazy.
Old 12-26-17, 07:43 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

The 4-day actual is in, fell to $99.025M, off $1.643M from the studio estimate and the only one in the top 15 to be overestimated.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend...knd=51a&p=.htm

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