My prediction:

BEST PICTURE

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Walk the Line

Best Director

Ang Lee
Bennett Miller
George Clooney
Paul Haggis
Steven Spielberg

Best Actor

Heath Ledger
Terrence Howard
Joaquin Phoenix
Philip Seymour Hoffman
David Strathairn

Best Actress

Judi Dench
Felicity Huffman
Reese Witherspoon
Charlize Theron
Ziyi Zhang

Best Supporting Actor

Jake Gyllenhaal
Paul Giamatti
George Clooney
Matt Dillon
Don Cheadle

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams
Michelle Williams
Rachel Weisz
Catherine Keener
Maria Bello

Original Screenplay

Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale
Cinderella Man
Match Point

Adapted Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Syriana
A History of Violence

Animated Feature

Wallace and Gromit
The Corpse Bride
Howl's Moving Castle

Foreign Film

Merry Christmas
Paradise Now
Sophie Scholl
Tsotsi
Mother of Mine

Adding more momentum, Capote beat Syriana to win the USC Scripter Award. This is the probably the biggest screenplay award aside from the Oscar and the WGA.

Last year, Million Dollar Baby won the Scripter. Sideways won the WGA. Sideways won the Oscar.

If the WGA selects Capote, I think it's a lock for screenplay. If they choose Brokeback Mountain as the Globes did, or any of the others, then it's still a race.

ART DIRECTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS

Period or Fantasy Film:

BATMAN BEGINS - Nathan Crowley
CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY - Alex McDowell
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK - Jim Bissell
KING KONG - Grant Major
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA - John Myhre

Contemporary Film:

THE CONSTANT GARDNER - Mark Teldesley
CRASH - Laurence Bennett
JARHEAD - Dennis Gassner
SYRIANA - Dan Weil
WALK THE LINE - David J. Bomba

I disagree. I think its not that great at all and gay people shouldn't be embracing it so quickly.

Im hoping it doesnt win. There are so many better movies out this year.

My nominations...
Crash
Pride and Prejudice
Cinderella Man
Good Night and Good Luck
The Constant Gardner

(I havent seen Munich or Capote yet)

What I actually think will be nominated...
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Walk The Line
The Constant Gardner
Good Night and Good Luck

My head is telling me that in this year of politically motivated movies, Brokeback will win. I hope im wrong.

I think there are only 6 movies left with a real chance of scoring a Picture nod:

Brokeback Mountain - lock
Capote - gaining momentum
Crash - gaining momentum
Good Night, and Good Luck - lock
Munich - received a much needed DGA nomination and an Editing nomination. 2 big signs it's in.

#6 Walk the Line

Of course, the Academy always surprises in every category. They don't always match up with other organizations. I'm hoping Kong will get the "because it's an epic" selection, but it's likely out. This could be one of the few years where there's no big epic/popular/high grossing film nominated.

Despite my list that has CRASH as one of the Best Picture nominees, I'm already gagging at that possibility. Sorry RockStrongo, while I agree BROKEBACK isn't the best film in the list, but CRASH is far, far worse, one of the most one-dimensional films I've seen that tries way too hard to ape Altman and Paul Thomas Anderson. Pat epiphanies, characters made out of caricatures and the most offensive portrayal I've seen of Asians in years. Too bad that when I met Paul Haggis I still hadn't seen the film, otherwise I would have told him my piece.

Then, if you can choose, what is a better film than Brokeback?

Capote.

Yeah, I still need to see that and Munich.

This may be my Star Wars homer-ism coming through, but I think Trisha Biggar deserves the recognition of a nomination. She won't get one in a million years, which is sad. But I think she should. I think her costume design work is second to none, and the Art Design in these films is also often ignored or discredited. Oh well, moving along.

I think Brokeback Mountain wins Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor for Heath Ledger. I think Witherspoon has the Best Actress Oscar locked up. Screenplays usually seem to be a crap shoot, so I don't have a clue other than Brokeback winning Adapted Screenplay.

do you think mickey rourke stands a chance for his work as Marv in Sin City?

no chance.

I'd be shocked if Hoffman lost at this point. He's won literally everything up to this point and his movie is clicking at the right time.

question:

when are the Oscar nominations announced?

tuesday, jan 31

Always excited to watch them get announced live. It's at 5:30 am pacific, 8:30 am eastern...just like it is every year.

Mine (of what I've seen):

Effects: King Kong
Score: Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Pic: Cinderella Man

I have to go with Hoffman over Ledger -- and that's without seeing Capote yet. I'm not saying Ledger was bad or anything, I just can't imagine Hoffman losing to him if, as I've heard, he re-creates Capote flawlessly. Ledger would have to look like a wooden stick next to THAT! Hoffman also has a better, larger body of work behind him than Ledger. Ledger needs a few more good performances under his belt.

I also think if the Academy decides on a "political vote" this year (which I also agree is likely), they'll do that in the Best Picture category and not Best Actor.

Hoffman is an almost slam dunk. If Capote gets a Best Picture nomination, he's all but won. If it doesn't, then there's a chance he'd lose, but the film is picking up huge steam.

I hope not. The screenplay was the worst thing about BBM.

I updated my BP and BD predix on page one. I am not sure if I have time to do predix for the other categories. Hoffman for the win, though.

I LOVED Downfall (Der Untergang).

Is it even in the running for Best Foreign or is its release date 2004? I see it on some critics lists for 2005, but I havent heard any buzz.

I think its actually one of the top 5 movies that I watched last year.

Grizzly Man isn't on the list for Best Docu., so I think this whole thing is a crock..well not entirely. But that was one of the best movies I have EVER seen.

I think Best Pic will come down between Brokeback and Capote. The actor race will be between Hoffman and Phoenix, and the actress will be between Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. I predict that Witherspoon will win the Oscar, though Huffman might be more deserving because people will se Reese as more bankable for winning the award, and apparently is well liked among the elite.

It was nominated last year in Foreign Language Film. I believe it to be eligible this year for the other categories, but I am not 100% sure. Great movie.

These appear to be in the chase for Foreign Language:

Tsotsi (South Africa)
Joyeux Noel
Paradise Now - possibly the front-runner
The Promise

Forget THE PROMISE. It has a snowball's chance in hell.

Like I listed above, SOHPIE SCHOLL and MOTHER OF MINE should do very well.

Thanks...I wasn't sure about that. I remember seeing it on some critic's top 10, so I got hopeful that it could be in the running.

Brokeback Mountain is the biggest Best Picture lock since Titanic.