Mr. Cinema

2005 Oscar Predictions:

as of 1/31 .....very subject to change.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Crash

Best Directing
Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee
Capote - Bennett Miller
Crash - Paul Haggis
Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney
Munich - Steven Spielberg

who will win: Ang Lee
who should win: Steven Spielberg

Best Actor
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck

who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress
Judy Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

who will win: Reese Witherspoon
who should win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

who will win: George Clooney
who should win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Francis McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

who will win: Rachel Weisz
who should win: Amy Adams

Best Screenplay (Original)
Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck - Grant Heslov, George Clooney
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan

what will win: Crash
what should win: The Squid and the Whale

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence - John Wagner, Vince Locke
Munich - Tony Kushner & Eric Roth

what will win: too early to tell
what should win: Capote


Best Animated Feature
Chicken Little
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
what should win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Best Foreign Language Film
Don't Tell
Joyeux Noel
Paradise Now
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Tsotsi

what will win: Paradise Now
what should win: Paradise Now

Best Film Editing
Cinderella Man
Crash
The Constant Gardener
Munich
Walk the Line

what will win: Crash
what should win: Crash

Best Cinematography
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

what will win: Brokeback Mountain
what should win: Batman Begins

Best Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Mixing
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Sound Editing
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Walk the Line

Best Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

what will win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
what should win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Best Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

what will win: King Kong
what should win: King Kong

Best Music (Score)
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice

what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha
what should win: Munich

Best Music (Song)
"In the Deep" - Crash
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - Hustle & Flow
"Travelin' Thru" - Transamerica

what will win: Crash
what should win: Hustle and Flow

mikvin

Best Picture
Good Luck and Good Night
Brokeback Mountain
Match point
Walk the Line
Constant Gardener

Best Director
George Clooney
Woody Allen
Peter Jackson
Fernando Meiralles
Ang Lee

Best Actor
Heath Ledger
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Russell Crowe
David Strathairn
Jeff Daniels/Ralph Fiennes

Best Actress
Gwyneth Paltrow
Charlize Theron
Felicity Huffman
Reese Witherspoon
Laura Linney

Best Supp. Actress
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Scarlett Johanson
Michelle Williams
Diane Keaton
Rachel Weisz

Best Supp. Actor
Ed Harris
Paul Giamatti
George Clooney
Matt Dillon
Bob Hoskins

Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Match Point
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain

i think brokeback will win best picture/director.
dead heat: heath ledger/phillip seymour hoffman
actress: either huffman/witherspoon
best supporting actor: paul giamatti
best supporting actress: scarlett johanson

Mr. Cinema

The Nominations are announced on January 31. Anyone else got predictions to post? Mine is still a work in progress and some of these categories are pure guesses since I have yet to see a few of the remaining contenders.

Ms. M

For the serious Oscar afficionado, the best site out there is OscarWatch.com. If you look at the predictions among its members in the forums and on its main page, you'll do pretty well in any Oscar pool.


Here are my current predictions for Best Picture:
Picture: Brokeback Mountain (probable winner- assuming it can make over 50 million at the box office)
Good Night and Good Luck
King Kong
Munich
Walk the Line

Shannon Nutt

If either Cinderella Man or A History of Violence get a nod in the BEST PICTURE category, I'm going to throw up.

Otherwise, I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Reese Witherspoon are locks as Best Actor and Best Actress nominees.

But I'm pulling for Munich for Best Picture and Best Director.

Tarantino

Although I agree with Cinderella Man, I think that A History Of Violence should definitely get a best picture nod.

I don't think King Kong will be up there.

= J

Mr. Cinema

I've now put A History of Violence in a Best Picture spot. The film just won Best Picture from a poll of 100 critics from The Village Voice. The movie seems to be picking up some steam.

conscience

Going to go with Picture and Directing right now

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Cinderella Man
Crash
Good Night, And Good Luck

Replaced The Constant Gardener, Munich and King Kong with Capote, Crash and Good Night, And Good Luck after thinking about the choices and seeing the other awards' results/nominations.

For some reason, I am still feeling that Cinderella Man will sneak into the category (like I stated before about the sneak in by Seabuscuit).

I put Capote in there, well, just because I think it is the best film from 2005 that I have seen. The movie is extraordinary and deserves a spot.

Best Director

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Speilberg, Munich

Spoiler: Woody Allen, Match Point will replace Haggis or Miller

I think Miller will be the surprise director nod and Speilberg will get in while Munich will stay out of BP.

Put Haggis in there cause Crash (for some odd reason) is actually being honed (is that a word?) as a great film.

I hope I am not way off with Capote in BP and BD. Deserves to be in both.

Mr. Cinema

I could easily see the Academy reward Munich with a Best Director Nomination for Spielberg and leaving it off for Best Picture for something like Crash, Match Point, Good Night..., or Syriana.

One film I don't have for anything is The New World. If that's well received, it could get a few nominations.

conscience

Those are, of course, possible choices - but the Academy really loves that epic feel of cinema and they usually reserve one - maybe two - spots for smaller films. But this could turn out to be like 1996 where independent film could overshadow the major studio films. They could go the GG route though - like your point with Munich (which I hope doesn't happen - take King Kong out of BP if they do that, not Munich.)

- Crash - I hope not!

Mr. Cinema

I think Kong is safe at Best Picture. A History of Violence has come on strong of late. I'm hoping they don't forget Cinderella Man, but that could easily happen. Walk the Line is another possible candidate.

conscience

When I think of AHOV chances at nods, I think of Mulholland Dr. The movie isn't as much of a 'mind-warp' as MD, but it has scored with critics just the same. They both have intense storylines and intense directors that score more at critics' laurels and GG nods - not the Academy. Would be great to have that type of film (AHOV) receive Oscar attention, though. Personally, I don't see the film up for BP nor BD (love to be wrong, btw!) If I had to choose which one of the two it would get a nod in - Best Director - just like MD.

Sorry, I'm going off on a tangent. I'll stop now so everyone can go back to predicting.

DealMan

No mentions for Hustle & Flow, which I think could wind up with a few nominations such as Acting, (Terrence Howard + possibly Taryn Manning), Directing, and/or Original Screenplay.

Mr. Cinema

If Hustle & Flow gets anything, it would be Actor for Howard. But the competition this year for that award is very tough and very crowded. I think Strathairn, Phoenix, Hoffman, and Ledger are locks, which leaves 1 spot. It could go to Howard, but also Eric Bana, Viggo Mortensen, Jeff Daniels, Ralph Fiennes, or Russell Crowe, whom I have for the final spot. This is my favorite category this year. So many great performances.

The Constant Gardener comes out on dvd next week. That's a film I didn't think would still be considered. But I'll get to judge for myself on the 10th.

ChrisKnudsen

Best Picture Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Match Point
Munich
Pride and Prejudice

Best Director Nominees
Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Woody Allen for Match Point
Steven Speilburg for Munich
David Croenburg for History of Violence
Paul Haggis for Crash
(maybe a nom for Peter Jackson for King Kong even though I don't want him to get nominated)

Best Actor Nominees:
Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote
Terrance Howard for Hustle and Flow
Jaoquin Pheonix for Walk the Line
David Straigtharn for Good Night, and Good Luck
(I would like to see Ledge edge out Hoffman on this one)

Best Acress Nominees:
Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman for Transamerica
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents...(I wish she would die)
Keira Knightly for Pride and Prejudice
Vera Farmiga for Down to the Bone
(even though I would like to see Naomi Watts for this and Huffman has a chance)

Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain
Matt Dillion for Crash
Terrance Howard for Crash
William Hurt for History of Violence
Kevin Costner for Upside of Anger
(some press for Howard get two acting noms)

Best Supporting Actress Nominees:
Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain
Amy Adams for Junebug
Scarlett Johanson for Match Point
Maria Bello for History of Violence
Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener

Best Original Screenplay:
Woody Allen for Match Point
Noah Baumbach for The Squid and the Whale
Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco for Crash
Grant Heslov and George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck
Craig Brewer for Hustle and Flow
(high applause for Allen winning, will he show?)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain
Deborah Moggach for Pride and Prejudice
Dan Futterman for Capote
Tony Kushner & Eric Roth for Munich
Josh Oldson for History of Violence

Best Animated Feature:
Wallace and Gromit
Howl's Moving Castle
The Corpse Bride
(Only 3 get noms, right?)

Best Costumes:
Pride and Prejudice
Brokeback Mountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
Capote
Walk the Line

Mr. Cinema

WRITERS GUILD NOMINEES

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Cinderella Man
Crash
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Syriana

The 40 Year Old Virgin is a bit of a surprise. These usually give a good indication of what will be nominated for the Oscar. It's looking more likely that A History of Violence will be a factor on March 5th.

No recognition for Match Point, King Kong, or Munich. Hmmm

QuikSilver

My picks for best picture:

Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
Walk the Line
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Mr. Cinema

PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line

***dvd screeners for King Kong and Munich were not sent to PGA voters***

I don't think this changes alot. I'm more interested in what the Director's Guild nominates. They seem to match up with the Oscars more so than the PGA.

From all the info gathered, it seems Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck are locks. The PGA's selection of Walk the Line helps that film.

QuikSilver

This is Oscar related news...

There are rumors that Jon Stewart will be the host of this year's Academy Awards. I think he's an interesting choice but a good one.

Check out www.oscarwatch.com for more details.

Artman

Brokeback Mountain will win best pic. Anyone think it'll even be about movies this year?

joeydaninja

Chris Rock then Jon Stewart, that makes me happy

ChrisKnudsen

Brokeback Mountain will win best picture this year because it actually is the best picture of the year. Nice change of pace in my opinion.

Artman

Well without having seen the film, I would be shocked, shocked if it doesn't win. It just seems like the natural choice.

Mr. Cinema

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINEES

Actor:
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Actress:
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

Supporting Actor:
Don Cheadle, Crash
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDromand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback

Ensemble:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Hustle & Flow

*Russell Crowe gets a big boost here.

Mr. Cinema

Judging from the choices, it appears King Kong is out and Munich is in. Also, Crash and Capote get a HUGE boost here with nominations. The DGA matches up best with the Best Picture Oscars. Other than the 5 listed, it appears Walk the Line is #6. It's looking like these 6 films are the finalists for the Oscar race.

Director's Guild Nominees

GEORGE CLOONEY

GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
Warner Independent Pictures

Mr. Clooney’s Directorial Team:

Unit Production Manager: Barbara A. Hall
First Assistant Director: David Webb
Second Assistant Director: Melissa V. Barnes
Second Second Assistant Director: Richard Gonzales


PAUL HAGGIS

CRASH
Lions Gate Films

Mr. Haggis’ Directorial Team:

Unit Production Manager: Betsy Danbury
First Assistant Director: Scott Cameron
Second Assistant Director: Simone Farber



ANG LEE

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Focus Features

Mr. Lee’s Directorial Team:

Unit Production Managers: Scott Ferguson, Tom Benz
First Assistant Directors: Michael Hausman, Pierre Tremblay
Second Assistant Director: Donald Murphy
Second Second Assistant Director: Brad Moerke


BENNETT MILLER

CAPOTE
United Artists / Sony Pictures Classics

Mr. Miller’s Directorial Team:

Unit Production Managers: Ellen Rutter, Caroline Baron
First Assistant Directors: Ronaldo Nacionales, Richard O’Brien Moran
Second Assistant Director: Charles Crossin

This is Mr. Miller’s first nomination.

STEVEN SPIELBERG

MUNICH
Universal Pictures

Mr. Spielberg’s Directorial Team:

Unit Production Manager: Ian Hickinbotham
First Assistant Director: Adam Somner
Second Second Assistant Director: Pierre Ellul