I think with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King winning ALL FOUR Globen Globe awards it was nominated for will strongly influence AMPAS voters this time.

It is now very likely that RoTK will win both Best Picture and Best Director to honor Peter Jackson's visionary work.

I will also admit that I was probably wrong in predicting "Cold Mountain" winning Best Pic. But I have to admit that "ROTK" looks to be a lock at this point. Although I'm happy to admit I was wrong since I really want "ROTK" to sweep. I will also change my Best Actress choice from Diane Keaton (so wonderful in "Something's Gotta Give") to Charlize Theron in "Monster." Although Theron's film is inferior to Keaton's, it's Theron's unbelievable performance that I feel will just be too difficult for Academy voters to ignore. It's such a once-in-a-lifetime performance that just came out of nowhere. It's certainly one of the most jaw-dropping, amazing pieces of acting I've ever seen. I wish the movie itself were up to her level. The overall seediness and repellent nature of the story made me want to shower after seeing it. And I may also have been premature in picking Albert Finney for Supporting Actor. It looks like Alec Baldwin and Tim Robbins may be battling it out. I just saw "The Cooler," and I think Baldwin gave the best supporting performance by an actor this year.

What the hell, here are my revised predictions...

BEST PICTURE;
1. "Cold Mountain"
2. "LOTR: ROTK" (winnner)
3. "Master and Commander"
4. "Mystic River"
5. "Seabiscuit"

BEST ACTOR;
1. Russell Crowe ("Master and Commander")
2. Paul Giamatti ("American Splendor")
3. Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog")
4. Bill Murray ("Lost in Translation")
5. Sean Penn ("Mystic River")

BEST ACTRESS;
1. Jennifer Connelly ("House of Sand and Fog")
2. Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give")
3. Nicole Kidman ("Cold Mountain")
4. Charlize Theron ("Monster")
5. Naomi Watts ("21 Grams")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR;
1. Alec Baldwin ("The Cooler")
2. Benicio del Toro ("21 Grams")
3. Albert Finney ("Big Fish")
4. Tim Robbins ("Mystic River")
5. Ken Watanabe ("The Last Samurai")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS;
1. Maria Bello ("The Cooler")
2. Marcia Gay Harden ("Mystic River")
3. Holly Hunter ("thirteen")
4. Scarlett Johansson ("Lost in Translation")
5. Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")

BEST DIRECTOR;
1. Anthony Minghella ("Cold Mountain")
2. Peter Jackson ("LOTR: ROTK")
3. Sofia Coppola ("Lost in Translation")
4. Peter Weir ("Master and Commander")
5. Clint Eastwood ("Mystic River")

And that's that. My earlier predictions were partly based on what I'd read in the trades and the buzz from various movie websites. Now that I've actually seen every one of the nominees (except "thirteen"), I am actually going by the achievement I saw up there on the screen. That's why I've eliminated some previous predictions I had such as Helen Mirren in "Calendar Girls," Cate Blanchett in "Veronica Guerin," Eugene Levy in "A Mighty Wind."

my predicts (much thanks to the hollywood foreign press


pic-
lotr rotk

director-
peter jackson

original screenplay-
lost in translation

adapted screenplay-
mystic river

actor-
bill murray

actress-
diane keaton

sup. actor-
tim robbins

sup. actress-
renee zellweger

animated feature-
finding nemo (duh)

best boobage-
too much competiton to decide.

I am now genuinely surprised. And happy.

This is so ludicrous to type, but it must be at least partially true...the HFPA must have actually been won over by the actual quality of Return of the King, (and the trilogy as a whole) since it didn't have their usual star-quotient they could kiss up to.

I think tonight we finally saw the end of Cold Mountain as a serious Oscar contender. Unless some dark horse sneaks in, Harvey is going to be very lonely this year.

I don't think Tim Robbins is a true contender for the Oscar. His Golden Globe is his consolation prize.

That may be true for a few others, too.

I don't think so. Tim Robbins was the only win that didn't seem to be a stone-cold lock. Unless the Oscar throws us a Marcia Gay Harden or Marisa Tomei-like curve ball, I think we just saw our winners (with the possible exception of Alec Baldwin).

All my predictions (and by consequence Grimfarrow's ) went on to win Golden Globes. The only question now is will Academy voters vote differently so they don't appear to be copy cats? Maybe LOTR will be upset after all...

Ugh...not quite. I (happily) lost on the Best Foreign Film. Osama! Osama! Osama! (yes, not the guy, but the movie!)

Oh yeah, I conveniently forgot to pick that category.

ROTK will take it. Like I said three years ago, Return of the king will take the award while FOTR and TTT will get over looked by it. it's a matter of it being the last film the voters can vote for. Jackson will get his reward as well. Now the question is besides screenplay, what love will Lost in Translation get? I sure hope murray gets the actor award for it.

Charlize is a sure in for actress for monster.

Return of the King will win both best picture and best director... no doubt about it. If they want to minimise the bitching around the forums this is the way to go.

But seriously, ROTK deserves to win as a mark for the ending of the trilogy since no director or picture has ever performed such a task in filming and developing 3 separate movies at once and being excitingly good on completion.

My prediction still stands--Mystic River for Best Picture over ROTK.

I wouldn't be upset if Mystic River won - it's a good film, at least, if not the best picture released in 2003.

I'd love to see a "Lost in Translation" win - but those smaller pictures seem to be relegated to win screenwriting awards.

I don't know if Mystic River is compelling enough for the Academy to vote for it, though. Those Oscar folks like epics - things that have nice visually exciting shots that look good in montage clips.

In 2001, there was a film with an excellent cast, was gritty and tackled a mature subject, and was even backed by Miramax - similar to Mystic River. It didn't win any of the major awards.

What movie? In the Bedroom.

Mystic River will do better than In the Bedroom, but don't expect the Academy to give the Oscar to it.

I see what you're getting at, but I just want to point out that I'm basing my opinion(still)solely on history alone. I've said it before, and I'll say it again--no sequel since Godfather 2 has won Best Picture, and no scifi/fantasy film has ever won Best Picture, and it will be no different this year. Peter Jackson will get a Best Director oscar, but that will be it's biggest award. Mystic River is academy material, and is the second biggest competitor next to ROTK. Can't wait until tomorrow to find out the oscar noms.

As in the words of a great king......

" if this is the end, then we will make such an end that it would be worthy of rememberance." King Theoden.


Sorry... LOTR- ROTK....... it will rule them all.......

Et was the only sci fi movie to win a golden globe for best drama.


If the Oscars needs a reason why ROTK should win...... look at Rottentomatoes.com and find out..... None of the Oscar Contenders can match it......

It is the year of the King.......

Okay. here are my FINAL predictions for nominees (though I hope for more surprises, to be truthful):

BEST PICTURE: - UNCHANGED
1. "Cold Mountain"
2. "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
3. "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"
4. "Mystic River"
5. "Seabiscuit"
Alternate: "Lost in Translation"
(Yes, LiT won 3 Globes - but I'm still unconvinced it completely has it in the bag).

Predicted Winner: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

BEST ACTOR:
1. Johnny Depp ("Pirates of the Caribbean")
2. Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog")
3. Bill Murray ("Lost in Translation")
4. Russell Crowe ("Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World")
5. Sean Penn ("Mystic River")
Alternate: Jack Nicholson ("Something's Gotta Give")
(what can I say? They love Jack)

Predicted Winner: Sean Penn ("Mystic River")

BEST ACTRESS;
1. Jennifer Connelly ("The House of Sand & Fog")
2. Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give")
3. Nicole Kidman ("Cold Mountain")
4. Naomi Watts ("21 Grams")
5. Charlize Theron ("Monster")
Alternate: Scarlett Johansson ("Girl With a Pearl Earring")

Predicted Winner: Charlize Theron ("Monster")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR;
1. Alec Baldwin ("The Cooler")
2. Chris Cooper ("Seabiscuit")
3. Sean Astin ("The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King")
4. Tim Robbins ("Mystic River")
5. Ken Watanabe ("The Last Samurai")
Alternate: Benicio del Toro ("21 Grams")

Predicted Winner: Tim Robbins ("Mystic River")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS;
1. Patricia Clarkson ("Pieces of April")
2. Marcia Gay Harden ("Mystic River")
3. Holly Hunter ("Thirteen")
4. Scarlett Johansson ("Lost in Translation")
5. Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")
Alternate: Mario Bello ("The Cooler")

Predicted Winner: Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")

BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Gary Ross ("Seabiscuit")
2. Peter Jackson ("The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King")
3. Sofia Coppola ("Lost in Translation")
4. Peter Weir ("Master and Commander: The Far Side of the
World")
5. Clint Eastwood ("Mystic River')
Alternate: Anthony Minghella ("Cold Mountain")

Predicted Winner: Peter Jackson ("The Lord of the Rings: The
Return of the King")

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
1. Finding Nemo
2. The Triplets of Belleville
3. Millennium Actress
Alternate: Tokyo Godfather

Predicted Winner: Finding Nemo

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
1. Goodbye Lenin! (Germany)
2. Osama (Afghanistan)
3. The Barbarian Invasion (Canada)
4. Bon Voyage (France)
5. The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
Alternate: Twin Sisters (Netherlands), Valentin (Argentina), I'm Not Scared (Italy), The Story of the Weeping Camel (Mongolia)

Winner: Osama (Afghanistan)
(wishful thinking?)

Just to add - there is always a chance that some movie may come out of the blue, like last year's "The Pianist". It may be "In America", which didn't get many nods at the Golden Globes.

No fantasy/sci-fi film was listed as #1 film of the year by 91 critics, no fantasy film was listed in the Top Ten by 271 critics, and no fantasy has won the PGA and the Golden Globes.

Except for The Return of the King.

I expect ROTK to get about 13 noms.

it cant get 13 nom's

maybe 10 but not 13....

ROTK will be nominated in the following Categories:

Best Picture
Director
Score
Song
Editing
Sound Design
Sound Editing
Adapted Script
Cinematography
Make-Up
Art Direction
Visual Effects

Possible Nomination:

Actor, Supporting

So I think 12 is highly likely, 13 is possible and 11 is the minimum (I could see it missing either Make-up or Adapted Script)....

It will win BP,D,Score,Editing,Sound Design,Sound Editing,Art Direction,Visual Effects for a total of 8 wins.

Just give it to Peter Jackson and ROTK already. They've got it in the bag.

I think they've already said its ineligible for score - because it reuses some score from the first film.