I'm starting to hear a lot of buzz around Mystic River for Best Picture.

And Peter Jackson has a dead balls lock on Director - even if his film doesn't win the big prize he's almost sure to win the best director award.

I can see either Peter Jackson or Clint Eastwood winning for Director. Sofia had better at least get a nomination at least though. I really don't know about best picture yet though. Actor is possibly sean Penn.

I have to respectfully disagree. I feel that Peter Jackson is pretty much a foregone conclusion to winning the Best Director Oscar. But just because Minghella isn't a DGA nominee, then "Cold Mountain"'s chances of winning Best Picture shouldn't be effected. There's only a few hundred voting for the DGA, while the Academy is many thousands. In recent times, the director and picture winners have not lined-up. In fact, a couple of times the Best Picture winner's director was not even nominated ("Driving Miss Daisy" is a recent example). To reiterate a previous posting, I am hoping with all hope that "LOTR: Return of the King" wins Best Picture, but I just have a sinking feeling that the Academy will choose to award Best Picture to "Cold Mountain," a film that fits their criteria and standards much better. Plus, "Cold Mountain" did receive some very rapturous reviews from a number of very important film critics. Personally, I found "Cold Mountain" extrememly well done. Flawed? Certainly. A previous poster compared it to "Gangs of New York" in that sense, and I agree. But this year, the flawed epic is not competing against a film that many in the Academy viewed as a major return to those old song and dance extravaganzas of Hollywood's Golden Era. Anytime a quality film arrives that sends out vibes of "Hey, Let's Put on a Show!," it seems the Academy has a hard time passing it over ("Shakespeare in Love" comes to mind as well). Films about artists creating art are pretty much a mortal lock. I know, "The Pianist" would have probably won Best Pic last year if not "Chicago," but I"m just trying to illustrate a comparison between what types of films usually get more voter attention. And I predict that if "Cold Mountain" does eventually become the disappointing choice for Best Picture by the Academy, then it will join "Dances With Wolves" as one of the most despised and hated films of recent times ("Wolves" beat out "Goodfellas" for Best Picture. 'Nuff said!).

Now that i've seen Cold Mountain - here are my predictions (but not necessarily what I want ) to win.

PICTURE..............."LOTR: Return of the King"
ACTOR..................Sean Penn ("Mystic River")
ACTRESS...............Charlize Theron ("Monster")
SUPP. ACTOR........Tim Robbins ("Mystic River")
SUPP. ACTRESS....Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")
DIRECTOR............Peter Jackson ("LOTR: Return of the King")

Hey....that's exactly the same as my list!

D'oh!
My mind has been taken over again!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.j...toryID=4083022



Directors Snub 'Cold Mountain' in Best Film Race
Tue January 6, 2004 05:08 PM ET

By Bob Tourtellotte
LOS ANGELES, (Reuters) - The race for Oscars gold took an unexpected turn on Tuesday when a major list of nominees for best film director snubbed Anthony Minghella and his widely-hailed Civil War epic "Cold Mountain" but gave a nod to Gary Ross's horse racing saga, "Seabiscuit."

The widely-respected Directors Guild of America, an association representing movie directors, put Peter Jackson and his smash box office hit "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," on the list of best film director nominees along with Peter Weir for his seafaring epic, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."

Rounding out the list of five nominees were Clint Eastwood with crime thriller "Mystic River," and Sofia Coppola for her Tokyo romance, "Lost in Translation."

"Return of the King" now positions itself as an award front-runner, Oscar watchers said, as industry voters could reward Jackson for the combined trilogy that includes 2001's "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" and last year's "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. The nomination also marks Jackson's third consecutive DGA nod, the first time that has ever happened.

Still it was Minghella's absence and the inclusion of "Seabiscuit" that had Hollywood buzzing.

"It's a bit of cliche, but it really does mean the most when (a nomination) comes from your peers," Ross told Reuters.

The "Seabiscuit" nod follows Monday's nomination for best film producing team for Ross and co-producers Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall from the Producers Guild of America.

The nomination was especially rewarding for "Seabiscuit," about the come-from-behind, Depression-era champion because it has been a dark-horse this Oscar race owing to its summer debut outside the fall season that is filled with Academy Award hopefuls.

The loss of Minghella and his critically acclaimed "Cold Mountain" from the DGA race proved to be a "shocker" for Tom O'Neil, host of award Website goldderby.com and author of "Movie Awards."

"We had presumed up to now that the race for best picture at both the Golden Globes and Oscars was between 'Cold Mountain' and 'Lord of the Rings,"' said O'Neil. "The news today means a major step back for 'Cold Mountain."'

"Cold Mountain" received a leading eight nominations for Golden Globe awards, which are given out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and are perceived as instrumental in swaying Oscar voting. Globe winners will be named on Jan. 25.

Moreover, "Cold Mountain" is backed by Miramax Films and its chief Harvey Weinstein, who have waged widely successful campaigns in Oscar races since the 1990s, backing winners like Minghella's "The English Patient" and last year's "Chicago."
Some Oscar watchers attributed Minghella's absence to a timing issue as ballots for the DGA awards were mailed out on December 8, but "Cold Mountain" did not debut until Christmas day, Dec. 25, meaning ballots could have been returned early.

Only six times since 1949 has the winner of the DGA's honor not won the best director Oscar, and 10 of the past 14 PGA winners have claimed the best film Oscar, which is the U.S. film industry's top award given out by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Oscars will be awarded on Feb. 29.

Fading in the Oscar pack appear to be Tom Cruise movie "The Last Samurai," director Tim Burton's "Big Fish," and low-budget film "In America," from Irish director Jim Sheridan.

Coppola's film appears to be the independent movie to beat this year. The director is the daughter of acclaimed filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola, himself a DGA winner for 1972's "The Godfather" which earned the best picture Oscar that year but failed to win the best director Oscar.

I whole heartily second this and will go so far as to say she deserves the win. It was extremely powerful and the emotion she portrayed was simply raw.

Also, Sean Penn did have a great year, but I would give it to him much more for Mystic River than 21 grams..i think he had much more emotion and presence in the former and the Benicio and Naomi were a little more superb in the latter.

As far as Best Film and Director..i think it has to go to ROTK and Peter Jackson, not just recognizing a great 3rd effort (though I thought FOTR was better) but recognizing an amazing trilogy and enormous effort that has not been pulled off ever and the time and effort involved far surpasses the Star Wars franchise and it just deserves it...they tend to give Oscars to the hard workers, the Julia Roberts (the darlings), the Ron Howards, who put out amazing efforts and don't always get recoginized and then put out the one and have to...this simply has to get it based on all 3 as they were all movie making at its most grandest!

I predict a lot of pissed off fans in this forum when ROTK loses the Best Picture Oscar to Mystic River.

If.....

And personally, it ain't ever gonna happen. If "ROTK" loses to anyone, I think it'll probably be to "Cold Mountain".

If The Pianist can't beat Chicago, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Mistic River beats ROTK. A lot can happen between now and March, and Mystic River is gaining momentum (at the expense of Cold Mountain, I think), I just don't see anyone passing the annointed "king" in this relatively weak year.

Cold Mountain got snubbed for Best Director... I have a feeling it won't win Best Picture. I honestly believe the race is between ROTK and Mystic River for Best Picture.

I wouldn't have a problem w/ any of the three winning, but I have to agree w/ you here - it's either going to Jackson's film or Clint's.

Cold Mountain didn't get snubbed for Best Director yet. The Oscar nominations are yet to be released.

When will they be announced?

Oscar nominations come out Jan. 27

jough, I think the snub for 'Cold Mountain' came from the DGA, which is a good indicator that Minghella won't win Best Director.

Seriously? Wow, they moved the date up. It's usually the second week of February. Or has been in the past.

Sorry but ROTK will win..... no doubt about it. Its momentum is amazing and the critics all agreed.



Mystic was just an ok movie

and Cold Mountain was good but not great.


Weak Year for the Oscars.

It was moved up last year because people were complaining that the Oscars were held too late in the year (mid March). So, everything is now two weeks earlier.

The Academy Awards are being held on Sunday, 29 February (Leap Day!) this year, so the nominations are actually about a week closer to the ceremony than they've been for ages.

In any case, I think the truncated Oscar "season" will be good for the awards. All of the critics lists come out around this time, anyway, and the other awards will lead nicely into the Big One.

And many of the films will still be in theatres once the nominations are revealed, which means that more of them will benefit from the Oscar nomination marketing, which is really what the awards are all about anyway.

ROTK won the Producers Guild Award last night, a very good indicator that it will win the Best Picture Oscar. It now has to be considered the definitive front-runner. Looks like old Harvey's going down this year.

Return of the King has been the definitive front-runner for over a year now.

Don't count out Lost In Translation just yet. It's getting a DVD release just one week after the nominations come out, which could give it a good boost with voters if it's nominated for Best Picture (and it likely will be). Mystic River hasn't had much buzz since mid-fall. It's been out of the theaters for quite some time and really isn't on anyone's minds. Cold Mountain and Return of the King will benefit from still being in theaters and receiving the hype that goes along with that.

Okay, now that the Golden Globes are over, do people STILL think Cold Mountain will win best picture over ROTK??? Heck, even the Harvey-lovin' HPFA gave only 1 measly award to Cold Mountain.

I am very happy with Osama winning best picture. Hopefully it will steamroll into the Oscars. I may have to revise my predictions slightly....

I think the only thing that has a chance to beat RotK is Mystic River. The re-release of it into theaters nationwide may help its buzz.