What Are Your Early Oscar Predictions?
 

I know it's still fairly early in the game, but all movies in contention are currently released. I have been following the Academy Awards since 1972, and have gotten pretty good at predicting how Hollywood votes. Taking into account various critics prizes, Golden Globe Noms, industry buzz, etc. IMHO these are the winners in the top six categories. Not necessarily my choices, but the choices I think Hollywood will make come February 29. Who do you think Hollywood (not YOUR choices!) will give the top Oscars to?

PICTURE..............."Cold Mountain"
ACTOR..................Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog")
ACTRESS...............Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give")
SUPP. ACTOR........Albert Finney ("Big Fish")
SUPP. ACTRESS....Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")
DIRECTOR............Peter Jackson ("LOTR: Return of the King")

Lost in Translation is getting a lot of attention - don't rule it out. I also think Sean Penn will win Best Actor.

Picture.... LOTR (putting aside the fanboy in me, it will take it)

and I agree with MrN.. Lost in Translation will be looked at with much attention.

Charlize will get actress for Monster

The trailer for either Hellboy or Spiderman 2.






:p

I agree that "Lost in Translation" will be given a lot of attention, but in nominations, not wins. I can see it gettings noms for Picture, Actor, Supp. Actress, Director, Script. Aside from Script, what major category can this film win? Certainly not Best Picture. Bill Murray deserves a nomination, but I just can't see him beating out Ben Kingsley (likely winner) or Sean Penn for "Mystic River" (if not Kingsley, then it will be Penn). His performance was effective but probably will be considered too low-key and passive for Academy tastes. Remember, they tend to go for the histrionics over the inward-looking. Also, Scarlett Johansson will probably get nominated for Support, but Renee Zellweger is garnering so much positive attention for "Cold Mountain," I would be shocked if she didn't get it. Also, no way Sofia Coppola (a deserving Director nominee) would beat out Peter Jackson or "Cold Mountain"'s Anthony Minghella. Or even Clint Eastwood for "Mystic River." So, that pretty much leaves "Translation"'s chances of winning a major Oscar in the hands of Best Screenplay (not sure if it's original or based on other source material). Many people, including myself, appreciating "Lost in Translation"'s originality and creativity, but I doubt the Academy acknowledges it much beyond the nominations level.

I predict the great film <b>Return of the King</b> will not win Best Picture because another great (and possibly better) film will win, and every discussion around here will sadly degenerate into an argument because of it.

It should be interesting to see how the nominations fall. There's been a lot of great work this year; some great stuff is going to get left out.

das

It seems like any mention of Cold Mountain already has the fanboys sniping that it better not win over their precious ROTK. ROTK was great but come on, if it does not win the sun will come up the next day and Peter Jackson can cry all the way to the bank. I do think for lack of a better phrase, that "the fix is in" for ROTK and Jackson to be rewarded. Best actor will likely go to Sean Penn for a great performance but also as the proverbial career achievement award (kind of like Pacino winning for Scent Of A Woman). Theron has the buzz for best actress right now but that could change by Feb. 29th.

I just hope Sean Astin gets at least a best supporting actor nomination. He doesn't have to win, just give the guy a nomination. He's played the part of Sam so well. I do think ROTK will take quite a few awards. Maybe not Best Picture (although I'm leaning towards it). The Oscars rarely reward the true best films of the year. They usually give it to someone who's deserved it in previous years, or whatever has alot of hype. I see them rewarding ROTK since the first two films didn't get any major awards.

Here's my prediction: no matter who is nominated, no matter who wins, there will be a TON of bitching here at DVDTalk.

I think RoTK will take picture and director. Regarding acting awards, I love the movies though I'm not sure anyone truly deserves an award for acting. Serkis' Gollum deserves recognition in some form, but quite frankly none of the other performances, while excellent, were of top of the year quality, IMO. Samwise was great, but I wouldn't give him a statue.

I personally think The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King will take Best Picture and Best Director, if only to honor the massive achievement that is the Lord of the Rings trilogy of films. :D

This is because I think the problem with Cold Mountain is that I didn't exactly care for the first 45 minutes of the film, something that matches the sentiments of some movie reviewers. Besides, both Cold Mountain and RoTK are "epic" pictures, and I think the AMPAS voters will prefer RoTK; there is still much bad blood over how Miramax literally "stole" the Oscar for Best Picture with Shakespeare in Love some years ago. Chicago winning last year is a classic case of AMPAS voters being suckers for anything resembling a decent movie musical.

I'm going to see Monster in January here in Minneapolis.

I'm hoping its as good as everyone says it is.


I'm hoping RotK takes home a few.

Cold Mountain should get a nod or two.

Well, Diane Keaton will definitely get a nomination. And although I haven't seen "Monster" yet, she should win. It's her best work since "Annie Hall". It's also just a great movie all around too. Great cast, script, etc. I think Frances McDormand should also get a nomination for either "Something's Gotta Give" or "Laurel Canyon". She and Toni Collette are THE biggest scene stealers ;)

Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Direction: Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Actor: Ian McKellen - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Actress: Miranda Otto - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Astin - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Adapted Screenplay: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Art Direction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Cinematography: Andrew Lesnie - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Costume Design: Richard Taylor - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Film Editing: Annie Collins, Jamie Selkirk - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Makeup: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Musical Score: Howard Shore - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Original Song: "Into the West", Annie Lennox - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Sound: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Sound Effects Editing: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Best Visual Effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Special Achievement Oscar: Andy Serkis - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

If only it were a perfect world.

...sounds about right -

Please don't limit that to just DVDTalk. New to the internet are you? ;)

I agree. The character Diane Keaton plays in "Something's..." represents how a woman in her mid-50s is sexy, vibrant, creative, intelligent. And about how one's life experiences can contribute to a sublimely satisfying relationship later in life. It's also an amusing flip-flop on traditional ideas that men get sexier as they get older, while women have a much more sensitive shelf life. Keaton's character has two men who each see such different things in her that appeal to them. She represents a complete, total woman. It's a great role for a woman. One of the most positive, life-affirming roles to be written for a woman in God knows how long. I'm not saying Keaton's not a fine actress, but the Academy may be most interested in honoring this role and character more than the actress herself. Although it certainly won't hurt that Keaton herself is one of the most admired and beloved actresses in Hollywood. I think this performance will be the one "sure thing" at this year's awards. I haven't seen Charlize Theron in "Monster," but given the film's subject matter and reprehensible character and the fact that many critics are complaining that the film is much too one-note, I highly doubt Theron will be much of a factor. Certainly a nomination, though.

Who cares about the Academy Awards. I don't.

Yet you clicked on this thread. Curious...

I hope that my favorite movie of the year dosen't get overlooked for some nominations, American Splendar. I think it's deserving for direction, screenplay adaptation, and actor. The award it probebly has the most chance of winning would be for adapted screenplay, but it's hard to see how ROTK won't (deservingly) get it.

Best actress:

Diane keaton for somethings gotta give.

Although she does have fierce competition from charlize theron & her phenomenal performance in "Monster".

I still think the academy will give it to diane.

I'd like to see Robert Duvall (Open Range) and Paul Bettany (Master and Commander) get nods for Best Supporting Actor - if either won I would be happy.

Emma Thompson (Love Actually) deserves a nod, and possibly a win, for Best Supporting Actress.

It won't happen, but it would be great to see them give Johnny Depp (PotC) a nod for Best Actor. What the hell, give one to Jack Black (School of Rock), too. :D

I obviously have a bit too much time on my hands tonight. So I did some research and came up with the following predictions for nominations in the top six categories. Once again, not my personal preferences. But my predicitons on how Hollywood will vote. I will offer my personal choices (for what they're worth) after my prediction on winner of each category (I know I did this at start of thread, so excuse my redundancy).

BEST PICTURE;
1. "Cold Mountain"
2. "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
3. "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"
4. "Mystic River"
5. "Seabiscuit"

Predicted Winner: "Cold Mountain"
My Choice: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

BEST ACTOR;
1. Russell Crowe ("Master and Commander: The Far Side of the
World")
2. Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog")
3. Bill Murray ("Lost in Translation")
4. Jack Nicholson ("Something's Gotta Give")
5. Sean Penn ("Mystic River")

Predicted Winner: Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog")
My Choice: Paul Giamatti ("American Splendor")

BEST ACTRESS;
1. Cate Blanchett ("Veronica Guerin")
2. Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give")
3. Nicole Kidman ("Cold Mountain")
4. Helen Mirren ("Calendar Girls")
5. Charlize Theron ("Monster")

Predicted Winner: Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give")
My Choice: Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR;
1. Alec Baldwin ("The Cooler")
2. Albert Finney ("Big Fish")
3. Eugene Levy ("A Mighty Wind")
4. Tim Robbins ("Mystic River")
5. Ken Watanabe ("The Last Samurai")

Predicted Winner: Albert Finney ("Big Fish")
My Choice: Albert Finney ("Big Fish")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS;
1. Maria Bello ("The Cooler")
2. Marcia Gay Harden ("Mystic River")
3. Holly Hunter ("thirteen")
4. Scarlett Johansson ("Lost in Translation")
5. Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")

Predicted Winner: Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")
My Choice: Renee Zellweger ("Cold Mountain")

BEST DIRECTOR;
1. Anthony Minghella ("Cold Mountain")
2. Peter Jackson ("The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King")
3. Sofia Coppola ("Lost in Translation")
4. Peter Weir ("Master and Commander: The Far Side of the
World")
5. Clint Eastwood ("Mystic River')

Predicted Winner: Peter Jackson ("The Lord of the Rings: The
Return of the King")
My Choice: Peter Jackson ("The Lord of the Rings: The Return of
the King")
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"Cold Mountain" will receive 12 nominations, leading all films.
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" will receive 10.

Who cares if you don't care?!