I'm afraid you misunderstand my position. It's not my intention to spew venom and upset people. My point was that dual format support will only serve to prolong the format war. As I said in my post, I think Blu-ray has unarguable potential. However, I do not feel that what the BD format offers is superior to what HD DVD has already delivered.

Ask yourself the question: given that BD is significantly more expensive than HD DVD, shouldn't it offer significantly more in return?

I don't really see VHS to DVD and DVD to HD DVD/Blu-ray as being all that analogous, though. The former was a massive leap in quality, but DVD to HD is more incremental. Yes, I know in terms of pixel count, DVD to HD is numerically greater, but to my eye, HD DVD and Blu-ray are more evolutionary than revolutionary.

Thank you for the suggestion Josh! Here’s my answer to your post:

-The fact that I have not been participating actively in the HD subforum does not mean that I have not been reading what people have had to say (I tend to do the same with the hardware section). Like every other person here I also happen to have an opinion which I SHARED.

-There are precisely two developments that I focused on 1) the very recent announcement by Blockbuster and 2) the also very recent financial statement by Toshiba. Considering those two I analyzed how the market might react and what format appears to be benefiting from these new developments. I fail to see why you categorized these as “recycled rhetoric”.

-I made it very clear why I lean towards BR at the moment. Simple answer is the little titles they have released are more in tune with my viewing preferences. You use “victory” in your post which partially implies that I have singled out one of the two formats and declared it a winner. Such statement I have not posted on this forum!!

The rest of your post unfortunately does not pertain to what I addressed or intended to address. The sales numbers I quoted from the article reflect player units not discs so bringing the sales-argument into the discussion to rebut what I have posted is simply off.

Finally, what I think or don’t at the moment is evidently not boding well with what others want to think. I’ve made it very clear why I would prefer either HD or BD to win as I see potential(s) for my interest in both of those formats.


Pro-B

i hope Blu Ray wins this thing...

for once the superior technology would win in the marketplace...

instead of beta going away while VHS wins...

OS2 warp would win over windows... etc...

Blu Ray is simply the better technology...

I agree that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are more evolutionary, but now that people are more used to buying movies than they were in the VHS days there will need to be a transition to a new format which they continue buy movies on. DVD eventually got enough traction to become the next format, but both HD formats still don't have enough traction to ensure that they'll be the "next format" for the masses. To me the analogy is in regards to becoming the next format.

Dear god. We're turning into AVS. Somebody shoot me now.

Exactly, I'm a big movie fan. But I'm not that much of a stickler for PQ. Upconverted DVDs look damn nice.

I have the self control to wait it out and see if one format is going to die or not. I don't want to buy one, buy a bunch of movies, have it die, and then be in the situation down the road in 10 years when my player craps out and I can't find a replacement for a reasonable cost.

So I'm sticking it out a bit, seeing if one or both are going to die, and will jump in later.

This movie fan can get buy on DVDs just fine for now, but I will keep an anxious eye on the format war to see how it is panning out so I can make an informed decision when I do take the plunge.

Yeah, but this is different as DVD offered so much more that Joe Six Pack could see as advantages.

Smaller, cheaper (priced to own right from the start), doesn't degrade over time, no rewinding, extra features, can skip to their favorite part of The Matrix just like they can skip to their favorite song on a CD.

Even as a more informed consumer, those things sold me more than better picture and sound quality.

Getting these people to upgrade again, inside of a decade after they moved to DVD (as they didn't jump on in the first couple of years) for nothing but better picture quality will be a much harder sale.

Most people don't give a shit, even those with HDTVs given the number that have them and receive no HD programming at all.

Universal itself can fix this Blockbuster problem by doing something many of us have suggested before, which is to simply make all future realeases combos and drop standard DVD's altogether (and lowering the price of said combos of course). Then I think it is safe to say Blockbuster would start offering HD DVD's for rental again unless of course they are stupid enough to not carry the latest Universal releases, which I don't think their customers would be too happy about.

Agreed. I actually like the idea of combo discs. If they could sell them for maybe a $5 premium over DVDs, I'd probably start buying them in anticipation of someday having a player.

I also like the idea, because even when I get an HD player, I'll still only have it on the main TV, while I have DVD on the computer, laptop, friends houses etc. that make combo discs more convenient.

this is one of the benefits of the new formats compared with the vhs to dvd transition: this time all the dvds people own will still be playable on the new machine. it will simply have the option to play more advanced discs as well. i suspect high end dvd players will begin to be fazzed out this year, with the process filtering down the food chain to the cheeper decks as the costs of manufacturing for the winning format allows.

as to combos, that's not possible imho. dvd is still the vast majority of any studio's profits in ht and it would be suicidal to their bottom line if they raised the price of their entire range above their competitors (unless they want to become a minor league player like critereon!). dvd prices are the value the studio deems that content warrents. hd dvd prices are the value the studio deems that content warrents. if they priced combos at the same level as dvds they would effectively be assigning a zero value to the hd content, which is simply not going to happen.

Backwards compatibility is a plus. But it just one matter if people don't care at all about buying the new formats period.

I don't think combo discs can replace regular DVDs, they can replace HD-DVDs though. Instead of releasing a film on DVD and HD-DVD as now. They release it on DVD, and for $5 more you can get a combo disc that has both the HD-DVD and DVD version of the film.

The pricing thing is a lose lose type of thing really. Like you say, if it costs the same you have that "no added value" syndrome."

But at the same time, I'm not willing to pay more to get something on an HD disc as the PQ jump over upconverted DVDs on my system and to my eyes isn't worth paying extra for.

I'm sorry; I have to disagree. While the lead may well be "beyond insignificant" for the average viewer, it is not beyond insignificant to the larger factors that are going to decide the format war. These being the film studios and media outlets like...Blockbuster Video. If Universal were to change sides now, the format war would be over. Universal (and the other film studios) are studying the HD sales very closely. It is not beyond insignificant to them, and they are the ones who will decide the format war, not the consumer.

(Now, once a victor is picked, then the consumer will decide if HD content is something they want. But as to which HD format wins, that's the studio's choice based on the sales (as meager as they may be) thus far.)

While the lead does matter in the scheme of winning, I just don't see why people care so much.

They are both so woefully behind DVD that it's just pointless at this stage IMO.

It's like arguing over who's the best special olympic's sprinter. In the end they're both retarded and the vast majority of people couldn't care less and are watching the Real Olympics.

I just want a unified format, prices much closer to DVD range for players and discs, and signs that the library is going to expand like DVD did (or at least to where I can get most every film I want to own in HD).

I don't care if that is HD-DVD, Bluray, or some new format years down the road.

You've got that precisely backwards. What good is it for a studio to "win" the format war if they still lose money in the process? At the studio level, no one is happy about any of the sales numbers they're seeing. What kind of victory is it to declare, "We went broke, but we went broke less than the other guy!"

The people who are most obsessed with these sales stats are actually the consumers waiting for a winner to be declared. All the press releases declaring victory that the studios are issuing have nothing to do with actual sales success, but are all about swaying public perception.

that's simply a short term attitude disagreeing with long term planing. studios are looking at the viability of a replacement for dvd, or at the very least a florishing partner to that most successful of formats. all seeds take time to grow, and they grow best without competitors taking their vital nutrients. once one of these formats has gone pop i suspect we'll start seeing an increased rate of growth in the highdef sector. but that's for after. right now it's all about deciding which of these boys will be allowed to go to the fair, and blockbuster has just cleared their throat with a suggestion.

i suspect that dvd players will simply not be available to purchase within 3 or 4 years (outside of the very cheepest chinese decks), and consumers will be buying highdef players primarily for dvd playback at first, before transitioning to highdef discs as they become more reasonably priced.

already there's some variation in software pricing in stores over here in blighty. into the blue, the jessica alba buttfest, is about 17 pounds which puts it in line with many dvds in the same store. though we're a little more used to being overcharged than our american cousins!

I have three words for you: SACD and DVD-Audio.

I just don't see that happening if disc sales don't speed way up. If sales stay this low you'll probably see studies backing off of supporting either format within 3 or 4 years.

The installed base of players and the number of discs sold needs to go WAY up before most hardware manufactures (i.e. aside from Toshiba and Sony who have a huge dog in this fight) to stop making cheap DVD players which sell in much higher volumes.

It's more the latter IMO. DVDs are selling like hotcakes, they're not going to be wanting to find a successor. They aren't going to care, they just want to make $$$ and DVD is making them $$$.

If HD-DVD and/or Bluray can become viable enough to be a source of extra $$$ for them from the HT geeks, then they'll happily keep making them and charging a premium for them since this crowd will pay more than Joe Six Pack used to buying DVDs out of the $5 bin at Wal-mart.

Thats not going to happen.

Its more likely that the studios will be setting up deals with the Mircosoft, Appless, Cable companies to deliver movies via broadband. thats why Microsoft is willing to take hits on HD DVD to establish a standard.

You know, I'm actually going to agree with one of Burnt Thru's points, though obviously I disagree with the conclusion he draws from them. I think it's very possible that in 3 years many major manufacturers will phase out standard DVD players in favor of High-Def players, which will continue to be bought primarily by people using them for standard DVD at first. High-Def playback will be one of the many standard features that some people use and some don't, much like progressive scan is a standard feature now.

In fact, this is already happening to some extent. You may have noticed what the best-selling DVD player on Amazon is, as well as 2 others in the Top 10:

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_st/10...sort=salesrank

Heh, heh. You are missing the point.

This is nearly the answer. I add to Josh Z's comments:

If current sales figures matter at all, then shut it down and turn off the lights. DVD wins. You better flippin' hope current figures don't matter to the HD wars.

Will the prices be to the point that they can sell these for $50-100 at Wal-mart buy then?

That's part of the key. The other key is that studios don't pack in support due to shit sales before then.

hd tvs have been bought by a decent percentage of consumers already, with the rate of adoption increasing year on year. high end audio systems remain a tiny slice of the pie. it seems clear that the general public places far greater value on an increase in pq than they do on an inprovement in aq. add in that listening to music is often an "on the move" experience, and advanced audio formats were a strange idea. it's possible the war will stalemate, but already these formats have greater exposure over here than either of the audio ones that u mention.