Burnt Thru

the thing is that businesses are nothing if they're not about greed. dvd sales/rentals are still growing, but that rate of growth has slowed considerably. this doesn't look good on the bottom line when it comes time to explain results to shareholders, so the studios are looking for the next big thing to pump up their figures again. they hope highdef will be the next gen, and we'll just have to wait and see. personally i also hope it is, since i'd like to get plenty of catalogue titles in hd, and i doubt they'll be released for a niche format.

Burnt Thru

in 3 or 4 years? already in less than 1 year bd player prices have halved from $1000-$1500 to $500-$800, and that without the introduction of chinese partners who have just anounced their first gen decks.

Tracer Bullet

Do they, though? How many of those HDTVs are receiving HD signals? How many are used to watch SD programming stretched to fit the screen? How many are recalibrated out of "torch" mode?

If these people are happy with SD TV programming, do you really think they're unhappy with DVD?

Adam Tyner

...and how many people bought an HDTV not because of the resolution but because of the size? It's not like you can buy a 50" SDTV anymore. How many care more about the prestige value of being able to say "I own a 62" HDTV" or "I own a $3000 plasma" than whether or not the image quality is all that great?

Qui Gon Jim

Precisely. We now have four HDTVs in the family. Each time I am at one of these people's houses, I ama amazed how bad the picture looks, and I die a little inside to fix it.

I advised my brother last month on a TV. I tried and tried to divert him from LCD to standard tube due to the fact that they had an armoire they were planning on using. The TV is 9" deep, but has around 20" behind it empty. But he can now say he has an LCD.

I will also repeat: BlockBuster is not extremely significant in this whole thing. Studios want people to BUY not RENT. Like I said, tell me WalMart is going BD exclusive, or even Best Buy and I will conceed that is a death knell for HD DVD.

I also think it is laughable that because BD is doing well for a few months that it is over for HD DVD, just like it was nuts to think that HD DVD eliminated BD in months last year. I think it is more likely we'll see a major studio fold their HD operations than we'll see one flip.

Drexl

Don't forget the ones that buy it just because they can hang it on the wall.

dkny75

Pro-B, I know you import a lot of titles on standard DVD. What about the fact Optimum, Momentum, Studio Canal, Filmax, and a bunch of other European distributors only support HD DVD. Obviously they can start to release on Blu-ray if they wanted to but the same can be said for all of the Blu-ray exclusive studios.

Josh H

I agree. They'll be all over HD or Bluray if they find that they can add to their profits on them.

I just don't see it getting to a point where either format will be anything but a side business to supplement their profits by milking the niche market of HT enthusiasts.

DVDs will remain the main focus, and the main source of profits. We just have to hope that one or both of the HD formats does well enough that it remains profitable for them to stick with them and to put out enough titles to satisfy us.

Josh Z

Not to mention the fact that Blu-ray enforces region coding, and Europe is a different region than North America.

pro-bassoonist

I already addressed this issue earlier in this thread. And that is precisely why I consider myself neutral when it comes to choosing a format winner. And that is why I attempted to explain that it is titles that matter to me not a format, hence my current preference for BD as they seem to be a tad more in tune with my watching preferences (i also specifically pointed out the fact that I would prefer HD when it comes to my buying habits).

Unfortunately, it appears that with some members neutrality is a serious bug capable of causing reading disorder(s).

Specifically when it comes to Studio Canal-France this far into the game there isn't a single title they've released that I am crazy about (La Haine and perhaps Leaving Las Vegas are the two I would consider).

Anyhow, it will be interesting to see how it all pans out but come this Christmas I believe the market will definitely have a new outlook.

Pro-B

Raw_and_Vital

Sorry if this was answered but, is Blu ray only winning because of Ps3 sales? or is BD winning because of blu ray disc sales?

Supermallet

Neither side is winning.

Qui Gon Jim

Give me a break. You've been called on your bias, and now you're backpedalling, and trying to twist it like those of us who called you on it, including other reviewers/moderators are the ones with bias. Just in the passage above, you say I am unbiased, but I like BD.

News flash: there are several of us that have been here in this forum since day one. We've seen the fights. We've seen trolls on both sides. The regulars here are for the most part unbiased. Some of us have a preference, but none of us regular commentors have said the other side is doomed. I like HD DVD (for now) and guys like BurntThru seem to prefer BD. That's cool. In a year he may love HD DVD while I will be buying BD exclusively.

I don't want to act like I'm calling you a "noob," but as this forum has evolved, we have sort of gotten to a balance where we can discuss things without bagging the other format. Most of us know where the others stand, and for the most part, we're cool with it.

That said, I think, especially in light of the posting on the front page of this site, reviewers have to show themselves to be way more unbiased that you are acting here. As I said, Josh, Adam and SuperMallet do a great job separating themselves and their personal biases to deliver honest reviews.

You should go the extra mile to stay out of frays like this; it damages your reviewing credibility.

Spiky

You forgot: Bored out of our skulls with the war.

pro-bassoonist

As mind-boggling as it may appear you are either unable to deconstruct what I attempted to point to you or simply choose to act silly for a reason. Furthermore, you seem to resort to a number of lies and fabricate statements I have not made together with made up “facts”. Thus, I am going to ask that you either back your words or simply move away:

1.In post # 139 I asked that you provide your post with a link to a study/article confirming the “widely reported fact”: higher attach HD rate. As none of my previous words were meant to address such a topic I also specifically requested that you clarify if you meant hardware, HDDVD, current favorable pricing, or else! You failed to support your claim!!


2.I made it very clear that at the moment I like BR’s titles better, not technology. To spell it once more for you this means film(s) availbality. You imply that I “doomed” one of the sides. Prove it! With a specific post quoting my words!


3.You state that I am biased! False again! I am neutral when it comes to either of the two formats! I commented on the recent developments on the market 1) the Blockbuster announcement and 2) the Toshiba statement regarding disappointing US sales. As the BB agreement appears to be a long term deal with importrant repercussions already covered by the media overseas I concluded that BR is here to stay. Prove and show the rest of the readers where exactly, in what post, I “bagged” HD.


4.I commented on the news reported by Reuters that Toshiba’s sales have been disappointing. In post # 129 you state that they are not! Here’s the link to the article where the current sales estimate for the calendar 2007 are reported by Toshiba as “down 44%”. I consider this disappointing.
http://news.com.com/Toshiba+drops+sa...3-6190361.html

5.I commented on the fact that with the Blockbuster deal and the recent sales data highlighted in the article below where BR sales are described as “three times greater than that of HDDVD” I concluded that, again, BR is here to stay.
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=7399


6.Finally, this article suggests that BR holds a 5-1 advantage in installed hardware and also that currently Playstation 3 owners are driving the BR movie sales (note: the article stresses that from the 55$ million spent up to date on Hi-Def films the majority, total of approx. 35$ million belongs to BR).
http://gear.ign.com/articles/798/798463p1.html

…so contrary to what you state in post # 113 insisting that BD owners spent less on films than HD owners, the numbers above show differently. So much for your bogus attach-rate!

Finally, whether you want to believe it or not I care more about titles than the eventual format winner.


Pro-B

jiggawhat

QuePaso

Im glad i wasnt the one who took that beating you just dished out. Great post btw.

darkside

Adam Tyner

A few seconds on Google turned up several.

Even the most ardent Blu-ray supporters I've encountered don't deny that HD DVD has a higher attach rate than Blu-ray -- they just argue that it's overall sales that matter, not the attach rate.

I'm not sure why you're bringing up pricing and the like; in this case, attach rate refers to the number of software units sold relative to the number of hardware units sold. Around 1.5 million Blu-ray discs have been sold versus 1.2 million HD DVD discs, but since there are more Blu-ray-capable players than there are HD DVD-capable players, that means the average owner of a Blu-ray player isn't buying as many discs as the average owner of an HD DVD player.

I don't think attach rates will play any significant outcome in the format war -- it's just a statistic that looks nice -- but it could certainly affect the types of films that are released. With most of the Blu-ray market anchored around people watching their movies on a video game console, the demographic is going to be skewed towards more recent films, particularly those with a sci-fi/action bent. A low attach rate doesn't give the studios much incentive to dig deep into their catalogs...just to focus on the blockbusters most of their customers will buy. I don't doubt that classic, foreign, and arthouse films will come in time, but I also don't see anything to indicate that this will happen to any great extent anytime soon.

Out of curiosity, since you prefer the selection of Blu-ray titles available at the moment, can you list some of the Blu-ray-exclusive releases that you find compelling? I've seen you mention Almodovar several times, but only one of his films is available on Blu-ray currently, and more prestigious releases such as Immortal Beloved are few and far between.

Blu-ray certainly has the potential for a tremendous number of classic and foreign films, especially thanks to Sony's ownership of the Columbia/Tri-Star library, but if the studios actually release few, if any, of these movies, that potential is ultimately meaningless.

The only studio that's shown much of any interest in movies dating back further than 1990 on either format is Warner. Titles such as The Adventures of Robin Hood, Casablanca, Forbidden Planet, Mutiny on the Bounty, and Grand Prix (using the term "classic" loosely there) may arrive on Blu-ray at some point, but Warner doesn't seem to be in any great rush, and they're exclusive to HD DVD at least for the time being. Universal has released far fewer and don't date back as far, but they do have a handful, such as Spartacus, The Deer Hunter, and The Sting.

I'm just a bit surprised that someone with an avowed preference for foreign and classic cinema would say that Blu-ray has the more compelling selection of exclusive titles right now. There may be some Blu-ray titles I'm not aware of, but as far as I know, HD DVD outnumbers Blu-ray by a fair margin in that regard.

JackBurton

I too am scratching my head over this stance? I mean, there are definitely arguments to made for BR, and personal preference is very subjective. But Volver is a fairly new release with a well-known female lead. I'd love to view the film in High Definition. However, does that title alone warrant the purchase of a player? Not for me, but perhaps for some?? How long do you think it will be before Sony's back catalog of foreign releases sees the light of day? If ever?

I value many of the reviewers opinions on this site and Josh Z, Pro-B and Adam always seem to share great insight and valuable info. I'm just not sure this hope for foreign, art house & independent film is a smart bet. And of all the arguments that could be made in the favor of one format over the other, I think this is the weakest at this point in time. Especially given the current and announced releases on both formats.

I too would love to see a short list of compelling exclusives. It is very possible that I'm just not aware of them. There is no arguing that BR has access to some largely popular big budget exclusives (i.e. Spider-Man, Pirates, etc.) but I'm not sure these are of major concern to Pro-B.

I've stated this before, but IMO, Fox has some system-selling titles in their catalog. With the proper releases, done right, the "potential" is there. But that's all it is, "potential". And at this stage in the game, and in spite of recent announcements, I'm wondering how strong of a sudden vocal argument can be based on this potential alone.

pro-bassoonist

Adam:

Most if not all of the reports, online and in the media, claiming higher HD-attach rate appear to have been inspired by the statement made by the HD-Camp which 1) does not account for Playstation 3 units sold plus states 2) that HDDVD film sales are leading in ratio of 4:1. I have not seen this being backed up by any recent graphics or independent reasearch.

Yet, All news consequently reported, by Microsoft, The Seattle Times, etc. quote these numbers.
Note: as seen in the last article I posted above a study disproving the numbers has been done by research firm Digital Entertainment Group (DEG). For the record the article/research is dated June 21.

At least from what the media is reporting you have am “official” statement announced by the HD-camp versus a research by an independent firm. Not surprisingly, the numbers don’t match!


I did not bring up pricing. My analysis in # 111 was countered by a quoted Microsoft statement which apparently claimed that the new format will be an “own”-format not a “rent”-format.

Owning is a byproduct of pricing, the better the pricing the better the acquisition rate I would assume. Thus, I concluded that with the number of hardware machines sold in favor of BR it is likely that film sales will also be in synch (which the recent data by DEG proves). Such logic was called “nonsense” by TracerBullet in post # 126. I disagree.

Because I disagreed later on I was called biased by another member.

Furthermore, Adam, I see the logic in your second paragraph regarding ratio sales (this is what I was hoping will be highlighted to me when initially attach-rate was brought up). I am however not willing to accept it as a viable argument as higher sales numbers only for stand alone players as reflected in Toshiba’s financial estimate are not contributing in HD’s favor. The graphic below by Nielsen confirms precisely that:



Titles: you know that my interest(s) lies in foreign cinema (hence my post earlier n this thread that I dislike the BR coding and that the HD region free nature is more in tune with my purchasing habits).

There are two reasons why I see BR as more welcoming to foreign cinema. The siding of Miramax/Buena Vista with them, and of course Sony Classics and their catalog (as you rightfully point out on the classics side Warner plays both ways). In addition, the fact that Volver, was released so quickly, in fact, as far as I am aware this is the only foreign title from 2006 released on Hi-Def format leads me to believe that yes, more will follow up.

As to your request here are the titles that interest me:

Tim Burton’s Big Fish
Volver
Chicago
Marie Antoinette (announced)
From Hell
Immortal Beloved (announced)
Last Waltz
I also have some interest in Black Hawk Down but that 3DVD set I own is fine for now.


Finally, The Three Colours Trilogy has been on World Films-HD three times already (I have Direct Dish 1000) in addition to Queen Margot. I don’t have the equipment to record these so I only watched about 20min. of Margot (and I could not tell what version was aired). Red however I saw in its entirety, it wad gorgeous.

All this being said I am certain that rather sooner than later these will come out on BR.

That’s all.

Pro-B

Josh H

While it is a positive, I wouldn't make too much out of Volver being on Bluray yet.

As noted above, it was a fairly big, oscar nominated movie with a female lead who is fairly famous in the U.S.

So I doubt that will have any bearing on more obscure foreign films hitting Bluray in the US, and with the region codes (that as I understand it aren't an issue on HD-DVD) importing is harder.

So it's a real toss up on which will be better for foreign films IMO.

Adam Tyner

I don't know what you mean by "sold bus states", but what you're proposing about counting the PS3 increasing Blu-ray's attach rate is not mathematically possible. If the number of discs sold remains constant, the only way to increase the attach rate is to reduce the number of players you're counting.

(Attach rate equals software sales divided by hardware sales. Therefore, to increase attach rate, either software sales have to be increased or hardware sales have to be decreased.)

If you agree that 1.5 million Blu-ray discs have been sold and 1.2 million HD DVD discs have been sold, and if you agree that there are many, many more Blu-ray players out there than there are HD DVD players (more than a 25% difference, at least), it follows that HD DVD has the higher attach rate. I don't see how it can be argued otherwise.

I'm not arguing that attach rate amounts to much more than the HD DVD camp trying to latch onto some positive statistic in all of this mess, but to be fair, they do have the higher attach rate. I'd need further proof to buy that the difference is truly a factor of four to one, though. I wonder if they're counting PS3 consoles that aren't being used to watch Blu-ray movies to arrive at that number. It seems as if they're counting PS3s but excluding Xbox 360 HD DVD add-ons to skew the numbers in their favor, but I haven't seen a full breakdown.

You did when requesting an explanation about attach rates:

You asked for a link about attach rates and, if I'm understanding you correctly, brought up pricing as a possible explanation for what "attach rate" means.

Attach rate is just a ratio of software sales to hardware sales. Price can be a factor in why attach rates may differ, but that's beside the point. Also, just because HD DVD has less expensive players doesn't mean the attach rate has to be inherently higher.

Volver was a day-and-date release, though, and studios on both sides have been more willing to release just about anything -- smash hits, box office disasters, high profile releases, movies that only played on a handful of screens -- day-and-date on these formats. Marie Antoinette was announced but was taken off of the schedule. As far as I know, there are no concrete plans for a release. Cases like those are different than digging into a back catalog. It's pure speculation either way, but until Sony Classics and Miramax start releasing the types of titles you're talking about, it's unrealized potential.

Dr Mabuse

there is a lot of talk here on picture quality... on the idea that the data of a movie is kept smaller so special features can be on the same disk... etc... a lot of scrutiny of on that idea of picture quality and audio quality and the benefits of a remastered title... 9.X MBPS vs. 4.0 where most titles are...

in a crowd that knowledgeable... who would have thought there would be a debate...

Blu Ray does a video bitrate of 40.0 MBPS max at 1920×1080 (1080p) and holds 25 gigs of data per layer per disk... dual layer disks hold 50.0 GB... and research is already underway into a 4 layer 200 GB Blu Ray disk... Blu Ray has and overall data transfer (video and audio) rate of 54.0 MBPS...

HD DVD does a video bitrate of 28.0 MBPS max at 1920×1080 (1080p) and hold 15 gigs of data a disk... 30 GB on a dual layer... Hd DVD has a an overall data transfer (video and audio) rate of 36.55 MBPS...

i would think in such a technical crowd there would be little debate frankly... and from what i see in a lot of these posts it's more of a 'i like Chevy just because i do' or 'i like Ford just because i do' kinda thing... almost ignoring that in the realm of HD the very different specs show a clear winner for which format can display the best picture and play the best audio... maybe i'm wrong...

i'm pretty new to the forum... maybe there was in-depth discussion of the actual technology that went on for a long time and i don't know about it... but i thought that the facts of the clearly superior technology were at least worth a mention...

i'm hoping Blu Ray comes out on top because of the simple superiority of picture and audio ... which is, after all, the substance of HD at 1080p... the quality of the picture and audio for cinephiles...

darkside

I've been buying both of these formats for awhile now and I can tell you plainly that there is no difference at all in audio or video quality between the formats.
None.

Those numbers sound nice on paper, but what the studios are delivering looks and sounds just as good on HD DVD as it does on Blu-ray. In some cases the HD DVDs have been better on multiformat releases because they received lossless audio the Blu-ray version did not and HD DVD has also been ahead with the advanced features.

People can throw around all the numbers they want, but the fact is from a cinephile standpoint both formats are identical. It is now about the titles available. As a fan of classic cinema the HD DVD format has delivered more titles I want, but Blu-ray has the better overall library and that won't change if Disney and Fox stay exclusive to Blu-ray.

This war will be won with the titles available and not the technology.