But they CAN watch them on their 25 inch TV, the picture will be downscaled to 480i. They just won't be able to watch them in high definition. We tend to overlook that because we are interested in high def here.

And before you ask "why would anyone want to do that?" remember that J6Ps tend to do a lot of strange things... like buying upscaling DVD players because the salesman told them it would turn their DVDs into "high definition"...

Exactly right, which is why adoption rate is not directly comparable between the two formats. If you're counting the PS3 as a BD player, the adoption rate for BD can be much lower than HD-DVD and still be selling more overall discs.

joeblow's numbers of 60% of 360 owners having HDTV seems to disagree with that statement, it seems there is more crossover than you think.

And who are the people these profiteers are going to be selling to? People with a large amount of disposible income. If someone is able to afford paying a premium just to get a PS3 a little earlier, they probably have enough disposible income to afford HDTV and BD movies as well.

Also, you're ignoring the older gaming contingent, which is large.

According to this site, in 2006:

- The average game player is 33 years old and has been playing games for 12 years.

- The average age of the most frequent game buyer is 40 years old. In 2006, 93 percent of computer game buyers and 83 percent of console game buyers were over the age of 18.

A sizable portion, I'd say. People online in forums who talk about this are in the minority. The majority of people will either get their info from major press sources, which haven't really dissed BD, or from salespeople in stores. The Popular Science review posted is probably a lot of people's first exposure to negativity about BD, and even that article reccommends sitting out completely instead of purchasing HD-DVD.

He's going to buy a $700 car? That thing's going to be a junker.

The PS2 was marketed as both a DVD and games machine over here. Why should it be different for the PS3? Overhead (margins) is precisely why I mentioned having to find the right price. Movies will be included in bundles.

People who think the PS3 will single-handedly win the war should be dismissed.

If the average PS3 buyer purchases 10 movies on BD, that would blow HD-DVD out of the water. Of course, that's not a realistic number, which is why it's bad to use anecdotal evidence.

I don't think it will be fully realized, at least not right away. However, even with a relatively small portion of that market realized on PS3, that becomes a significant number due to the sheer number of PS3 units.

I'm not sure that's a factor as long as the units sell.

That's probably the main concern, and the main unknown. However, the main reason some said this number would be low, namely that PS3 owners won't have an HDTV, has consistently been shown to be less and less a factor.

The average price for BD is under $20 currently. The price difference between thw two is not $10.
http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

Now you all have dedicated DVD players. However, the stats that show that 93% of PS2 owners have used it to play DVDs indicates that a lot of people may be willing to use the PS3 to play BD, at least until they get a dedicated player for that format as well.

Wait, you know how junky the PS3 is for playing BDs? How?

Right away, maybe. However, nobody said that HD-DVD buyers bought all their movies the day of launch either. Considering the PS3 is being released during holiday season, people will either get them as gifts or purchase them with gift certificates of money. Even ignoring the holiday season, they could buy movies with their next paycheck or whatever after getting the PS3.

Who says they have to have it fixed by then? A good number of people won't know anything is actually wrong, and others, when given the choice between a movie format they don't own a player for, and an lower quality format they do own a player for, may opt for the latter.

WB has already announced the use of VC1 on their next titles.

If you think you a) be able to get a PS3 for $700 or b) think you'll have anything to PLAY on that PS3 for $700 you're crazy. Retailers tested the waters with XB360 and they now know that to get the system, early adopters will buy just about any shit they bundle with it. Bundles were close to $1K for the 360. He's been saving all summer, but if he buys a PS3 then he'll have to save a while longer to get the car. $700 is a pretty big chunk of change to me, and I make far more than minimum wage.

Plus, if you drove a brand new car when you were 16, then that explains why you aren't alarmed by the ps3 price.

As far as the adoption ratios, I now see what you are saying. However the only chink in the whole plan is getting the PS3s out there, which may prove to be a challenge for Sony, it seems.

Finally, that "survey" is ridiculous. For the average age of gamers to be 33, there would have to be millions of people older than me who are hardcore gamers to offset all the children and teens that play. I can say I know -2- people older than me (34) that play video games regularly. That survey is shit.

Hey! I doubt that I could sell MY car for $700 and it is quite reliable. (However, I bought it new 20+ years and 200,000+ miles ago and have maintained it well...)
Correct me if I am wrong, but won't a lot of PS3 buyers just pre-order it now from an e-tailer or B&M store that accepts such orders? No need to spring for a bundle if one orders it now.
Yes, it will be interesting to see if Sony can pull it off. For now I remain skeptical, like you are. Their actions thus far haven't exactly inspired confidence in their ability to deliver 4 million fully functional PS3s by year-end...

If they really did that, then I would believe they're actually trying to lose the war.

Maybe BD is Sony's way of ripping themselves apart very publicly, and we all got fooled into thinking it was a serious business venture.

That's funny. The link pretty clearly states the average price is around $22. Maybe you were thinking of third-party sellers. Which is no surprise as BD has lower resale value.

Owning an HDTV and being an HD enthusiast are two wildly different things. The main reason that so many people are now considered owners of HDTVs is because 23-37" LCD HDTVs have finally dropped below the pain threshold at big box stores. Go into any Costco and you can find HDTVs from Vizio and a few other second or third tier manufacturers priced under $1000, and falling. Even Philips is approaching the sub-$1000 price point on many of the 32" sets. I don't think owning an HDTV at this point in time is any indicator of having significant disposable income. To me, it merely points out that, as prices continue to fall, more and more people are replacing their old NTSC sets with HDTVs as the need arises.

But if the review does recommend waiting, then wouldn't you agree that such negative press will cause many, many PS3 owners to do just that -- namely, pass on BD discs until things shake out a bit more?

No, they already have a player.

Amir is making some interesting comments about Disney, VC1 and...possible involvements with HD DVD.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post8297359

The more expensive PS2 lists for $599.

Games are going to be around $60-100, so $700 can buy a system and one game.

Bundles will exist, but you're stretching credibility to suggest that all PS3s will be only available in bundles.

I'm not saying it isn't a big chunk of change, I'm just saying it's not going to get you terribly far towards a decent car, even used.

My first car was used, but cost more than $700. In fact, all the cars I've bought have been used, and I know from experience what $700 will buy you in terms of a car.

Yes, it remains to be seen if Sony can deliver on its promised number of PS3 units. If it does, it could kickstart the BD side. If it doesn't, it could stall BD adoption just as it was expected to ramp up.

Anecdotal evidence is the worst type to try and project from. Just because you don't know any older people that play games regularly doesn't mean they don't exist. The only way to truely discount the survey would be to either find another, more accurate survey, or find flaws in their collection methods.

As it stands though, here's some more info from the site:
http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php

For Console Gamers...

* Forty percent of most frequent game players are under eighteen years old.
* Thirty-five percent of most frequent game players are between 18 and 35 years old.
* Twenty-five percent of most frequent game players are over 35 years old.

At first, it looks like kids are the largest segment. However, if you lump the other two into one, people over 18, they are the larger segment. It also shows that 18-35 year olds make up almost as many gamers as kids, while those over 35 aren't nearly as large. However, considering that the over 35 segment could consist of a few people in their 80s or 90s playing game, one can see how the average age could get skewed that far. Which is why it's important to understand the difference between average age and median age.

Are PS3 games really going to be priced between $70 and $100? If that's the case the case this system is dead already. The masses aren't going to drop a c note on a video game. As someone with a decent amount of disposable income I can't see spending that kind of cash on a game when I could spend nearly half that much for comparable games on the 360 or PC.

PS3 games will be priced the same as Xbox360 games. Sony is not completely crazy. However, everyone will start doing the $69.99 limited edition releases to really try and cash in.

Actually, the Sony exec in charge of video games said he could easily see the games costing up to $100 per game.

I think you've offered the best point on this thread in a while. The HD-DVD drive for 360 also has to be factored in. The question is, how?

Remember, that most of the criticisms people have applied to the PS3 would apply to the 360 and the add-on. Namely: 360 owners don't have HDTVs, 360 owners don't have it hooked up to their HDTV, 360 owners are gamers and thus not interested in HD-DVD. Now, I've offered my arguments againts these for PS3, and a lot of them could apply to 360 as well. Except....

BD on PS3 is manditory, HD-DVD on 360 is not. Even those that don't initially want BD movies will get that functionality with their purchase of PS3. A good number of people may buy BD movies becase, well they have an HDTV so why not? With Xbox 360, people purchasing the HD-DVD drive are going to be dedicated HD-DVD consumer, but that's the only type of consumer that's going to get it. The 360 add-on will be missing the many casual or occasional BD consumers that the PS3 can generate due to the lack off need for an add-on.

So who's to say how many 360 consumers will buy it? I had to fight tooth-and-nail to argue for a mere 5% of PS3 buyers using BD, and I feel 360 add-on adoption might be less than PS3's BD consumer base.

The third-party price is for new discs, as described by its title on the page: "Average 3rd Party New DVD Price." I'd personally use "disc" instead of DVD to describe them, but that's just me. Even at $22, it's not $10 more than most of the DVD titles. And it's certainly not outside the realm of a reasonable purchase price.

Which actually feeds into my point. On one side of their mouth, PS3 deriders are claiming that buyers won't have enough disposible income to buy or already have an HDTV, while on the other side they talk about PS3s selling for $3k on ebay. My point is that, for those people paying hundreds to thousands more to get a PS3 early, them also having a HDTV is a more than reasonable assumtion.

As The Bus pointed out, PS3 owners will already own the ability to play the discs, so their hesitence on the discs themselves will be significantly reduced.

Except that each 360 add-on adoption means guaranteed media attachment. Any individual PS3 purchase does not guarantee it. In fact, the add-on players will most likely have a HIGHER rate of attachment per unit due to the fact that people have to make the conscious decision to buy it, and since all it does is play HD DVDs, they will want to make use of it. By making BD part of the PS3 in the box, some people might buy a disc or two out of curiosity, but many likely won't even know it's a capability the PS3 has.

Here's an article that doesn't agree with that:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...php?story=9901
June 29, 2006
Sony Computer Entertainment America president Kaz Hirai ....suggested that:
“Generally speaking, over the past twelve years or so, there has been a consumer expectation that disc based games are maybe $59 on the high end to $39 on the low end. So, what I can say now is, I think it would be a bit of a stretch to think that we could suddenly turn around and say ‘PS3 games now $99.99’...... if it becomes a bit higher than $59, don't ding me, but, again, I don't expect it to be $100.”

I used $60-100 as a range, since we don't know for sure, but it's very likely to be around $60, possibly a little higher than $60, but almost definitly less than $100.