I posted this a while ago, but I think most people missed it. This is from usatoday
So I think that it's very safe to say that a very substantial percentage of the initial PS3 purchasers will at least HAVE an HDTV.

The fact that he is making that decision means he needs a girlfriend. Get the freaking car.

Thanks for the link, Joe

hmmm car, friends, girlfriends and a little more towards that feeling of freedom, or nerding it out alone with my overpriced VG system....

man so hard to decide....

Z

Well, whether you like it or not, sales of the PS3 is a major link in the chain for Sony and Bluray. I dont think its out of perspective to discuss it and its competitors.

Without that video gaming system, BD probably would not survive very long. So, limiting the discussion of its sales is ridiculous.

That said, it IS purely opinion on how well it will sell and also how it would be used from both points of view, but some BD supporters basically claim that the war will be over when the PS3 is released.

Popular Science reviews the BD deck:

Blue ray test drive
The format war between Blu-ray and HD-DVD has officially begun-
whether you should care is another matter. We took the first HD-DVD player for a
spin in the August issue. Up this month is Samsung's $1000 BD-p1000, the first
dedicated Blu-ray player.
Hardware Issues
It took nearly 30 sec to load a Blu-ray disc, and up to 6 seconds to skip from one
chapter to the next. If that doesn't sound like much, try counting to 30 while staring at a
blank screen. Now imagine paying $1000 for that privilege!
Image quality
We watched scenes from Hitch, Memento and XXX at 1080p resolution, which only
Blu-ray discs can currently deliver. But all three films looked surprisingly grainy. The
only footage that lived up to Blu-ray's hype was a razor sharp trailer for
Underworld: Evolution.
Bottom line
Don't bother enlisting in this format war yet- even early adopters should wait
for reinforcements.

I read that. If the load time is an issue on the BR machines, it is much more so on the HD-DVD. But it is sure no secret that the picture quality of BR is poor, comparitively.

But the fact that he is making that decision also brings into question how much disposable income he'll have left after the purchase of the console and peripherals. Once his shiny new PS3 is 'in da house', will he be more inclined to spend what cash he has left on games or BD movies?

This leads me to believe that the attachment rate for BD on the PS3 will be extraordinarily low. PS3 owners similar to 'the cousin' may Netflix a few titles here and there, but that won't turn the PS3 into the savior of the format.

I can't believe someone would choose a PS3 over a car.

I'd prefer to spend the money dry walling my basement, but that's just me.

While I agree that gamers with a shiny new PS3 will be more inclined to spend money on expensive new games than BD movies, the sheer volume of PS3s out there will make for a significant number of that are, indeed, hooked up to HDTVs and enable their owners to buy and play BDs.

For all the flak he is taking, Jay G.'s numbers strike me as very conservative. Even if not all PS3 owners with HDTVs hook them up to the HDTV and even if those that do, buy fewer movie discs than HD DVD owners (can we agree to accept that as a given?), the sheer number of PS3s out that ARE hooked up to HDTVs will make for a sizeable market for Blu-ray Discs.

It's hard for me to look at the numbers and see how HD DVDs are going to be outselling BD by, say, March of next year. Unless you want to postulate that HD DVD owners are going to buy 20 times as many discs as PS3 owners who have their machines attached to an HDTV. Possible I suppose, but likely?

Of course, all this speculation is based on some assumptions:
1) That Sony will actually deliver two to four million PS3s by year end. If not, all bets are off.
2) That BD gets its disc quality improved. (MPEG2 plus LPCM on 25GB? Yikes! Whose brilliant idea was that?). If not, advantage to HD DVD.

I think that 2) above is quite likely but I have my doubts about 1). Sony has flubbed everything else thus far, why would they be able to get that many working PS3s out the door in four months? But if they do succeed in doing it, the format war will kick into high gear...

I know DFNYC would like to see BD die a quick death (so would I) but I just can't see how it could happen.

BD won't die a quick death, just look how long UMD lasted. However I just can't buy the fact the PS3 owners will buy more discs then HD DVD owners. Most of my friends who had a PS2 and used it for DVD only ended up getting around 10 movies total. Why would gamers who put down all of that money on a system use whatever income they have left to buy movies? Instead, they will be more inclined to put their extra cash towards other games and just rent the movies they are interested in.

No one has ever disputed that the market for BD will be larger. Where there has been significant disagreement (all based on conjecture and speculation, on both sides) is whether that market will be realized. Jay believes it will be. Others of us don't.

Again, without a crystal ball, no one can say for sure, but my hunch is that the attachment rate for BD (at least from PS3 owners) will be less than 1/20th of what HD DVD continues to produce, as a percentage of market share.

The key word here is enable. The fact that a game console enables playback of a movie format, any movie format, does not automatically support the conjecture that a) movie playback will be a motivating factor in the purchase of a statistically significant number of consoles (ie, people purchasing said console because it plays movies), or b) any consumers who purchase the console primarily for gaming will be motivated to purchase movie titles to watch on it.

I've got a Crystal Ball. I'll consult him and get back to you.

I just don't see many of the college/teenage people that DO buy a PS3 being able to afford 3-4 movies. You figure by the time you buy a PS3, extra controller, 2 games and tax you're into the $800 range. Add in another 3-4 movies and your closing in the $900 range. That's quite a large chunk of money to bet on people buying this BD crappola. Now the arguement will be that they will eventually buy the movies, which i'm sure they will. Don't forget they STILL have to shell out 60-70 bucks for a game that they want, probably 2 to 3 a month if they are gamers. You think daddy is going to want to keep shelling out that much money, then have his little buddy still ask for movies that cost 10 bucks more then SD? No way.

I've said it before and i'll say it again, I consider myself a gamer, as well as a AV kinda guy. I don't watch movies on my gaming machines, period. I don't care if the 360 had HD built into it, I will still watch it on my home AV equipment. I have a good group of gaming buddies (closing in on 20 now) that frequently play games on the 360 together and the PS2. Only 1 (ONE) of them uses his PS2 or 360 to watch dvd's. Why? Simple, they have dedicated equipment to do that. None of us are buying a PS3 for the BD player either. We know how junky they are right now.

If you REALLY think that someone is going to drop $900 bucks to buy a PS3, movies, games, and accessories, you're dead wrong. There will be a VERY VERY small minority that drops that kinda load on a VG system.

Don't think everyone lives good lives with pockets full of cash just waiting to get spent, most of us have better and more important things in life to spend money on. Now when the PS3 drops to maybe 400, we can rediscuss this, as the scenario might be different.

Don't think that we all havent seen the LACKLUSTER quality of BD also, why would any of us think that Sony and their rah rah camp will have their game face on and BD be fixed by the time the overpriced BD/PS3 comes out? I for one don't think they will. Proof? I don't need proof, Sony has shown all the proof you need with their launch of BD.

I'll await the 50gb, VC1 someday, BD TRUE launch comments, I know they are coming. Grasp all you want Sony fanboys, cling and wrestle with all your might, I just don't see why you can't fathom that BD at this current time and place in history has been a hilarious disaster.

Z

Taking bets on how many movies will be bundled by stores with the ps3 to boost the # of movie sales. Im betting at least 5 flicks for the launch systems. Anyone think less or more?

Five? I can't imagine anything like that happening. I'm thinking at most two and quite possibly just one.

I imagine by Nov 17th, some of the earlier titles will be cheaper and be added in just to sweeten the pot, per say. You dont think that will happen? I remember pretty much every bundle for the 360 included a massive amount of games, why not throw in some blu-ray movies with the ps3? I definetly see it as something that could very well happen.

And it'll be probably be "Silent Hill," "Resident Evil," or something else based on a video game available for the Sony platform.

they are already losing a ASSLOAD on the machine itself, why would they want to lose that much more money by loading it with 5? Oh wait, that worked well for UMD and PSP didn't it?

I would bet the only movies that come with the PS3 would be whatever Sony throws in the box. The PS3, like every other big console release, gives retailers the chance to make more revenue by packing the system with "more expensive" games. Retailers want to make the most coin possible, not push Blu-Ray at their own expense.

Dear Hater

I never said sony would be doing the bundeling, it would be stores like best buy and the like.

Dear fanboy

Doesn't matter who bundles it, someone loses a bunch of money

You should really see someone about those delusions of yours.

Can you HONESTLY see Best Buy "and the like" bundling 5 movies, which they currently price at $24.99+? And if this dual layer thing ever comes to fruition, I'm sure the price will go up even more.

The 360 bundle I got from Best Buy had a grand total of one game, I believe. Several accessories but just one game.