HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray vs. everything else free-for-all: Round two
08-27-06 | 09:47 PM
#501
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by Suprmallet
Except that each 360 add-on adoption means guaranteed media attachment.
Any individual PS3 purchase does not guarantee it.
By making BD part of the PS3 in the box, some people might buy a disc or two out of curiosity, but many likely won't even know it's a capability the PS3 has.
08-27-06 | 09:49 PM
#502
Banned by request
"If it's higher than $59, don't ding me."
Fuck that, man. Sony is charging $600 for their system that includes a shitty, can't get its act together format that I wouldn't pay $10 to have in my home, and now they're saying they could see the games being more than $60? $60 is already too much to pay for a video game, in my opinion. Since buying my 360 in December, I've only bought a handful of games. I would have bought more if the prices weren't so damn high. There's no way I can support a system where the games cost more than $60. That's my limit. And $60 is only for the absolute must have games. And I'm not the only one who feels that way.
On an unrelated topic: Freak, I think you're reading too much into amir's post. Microsoft worked with Disney to create iHD, but Disney still went with BD. I don't think using VC-1 will suddenly make them release on both formats.
Fuck that, man. Sony is charging $600 for their system that includes a shitty, can't get its act together format that I wouldn't pay $10 to have in my home, and now they're saying they could see the games being more than $60? $60 is already too much to pay for a video game, in my opinion. Since buying my 360 in December, I've only bought a handful of games. I would have bought more if the prices weren't so damn high. There's no way I can support a system where the games cost more than $60. That's my limit. And $60 is only for the absolute must have games. And I'm not the only one who feels that way.
On an unrelated topic: Freak, I think you're reading too much into amir's post. Microsoft worked with Disney to create iHD, but Disney still went with BD. I don't think using VC-1 will suddenly make them release on both formats.
08-27-06 | 10:20 PM
#503
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From: A far green country
Originally Posted by Jay G.
As The Bus pointed out, PS3 owners will already own the ability to play the discs, so their hesitence on the discs themselves will be significantly reduced.
08-28-06 | 08:25 AM
#504
DVD Talk Godfather
Not anything that should surprise anyone
Now that we've got a lot of titles selling in each format, why don't we compare them against each other?
Here's what we're looking at: I track the average of a basket of titles that are available in DVD, Blu-Ray, and HD-DVD. Unless noted, they are all similar releases, and I track only the best-selling widescreen edition DVD of the film.
8/16/06 (1 title tracked): Kiss Kiss Bang Bang tracked
8/22/06 (2 titles tracked): Training Day added
8/24/06 (4 titles tracked): Rumor Has It... and Good Night and Good Luck added
8/25/06 (6 titles tracked): Mission: Impossible III and Mission Impossible: Ultimate Missions Collection added
The graph speaks for itself. The drop in DVD's ranking occured as older titles like Training Day were added. DVD still vastly outsells either format, even in catalog titles like Training Day. Occasionally, the new formats will sell very well abnd outpace the average of their predecessor. This is especially true with the Mission Impossible box set, where both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are both outselling DVD.
Keep in mind that of the HD-DVD titles tracked currently, half of them are combo releases priced $4-$8 higher than their Blu-Ray counterparts (which in turn are $7-9 higher than the regular DVDs).
As more titles are added to Amazon's catalog, I will expand this to include them.
Last edited by The Bus; 08-28-06 at 08:34 AM. Reason: Added more info.
08-28-06 | 09:57 AM
#505
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by RoboDad
One more time...you are only speculating. You have no way of knowing whether this will be the case or not.
08-28-06 | 11:16 AM
#507
DVD Talk Gold Edition
Is it known how many of any given title are sold on Amazon each day, or what the difference in sales rank translates to in terms of units sold? Maybe it's 100 units. Maybe it's 1. Does anyone know?
08-28-06 | 11:47 AM
#508
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More BD50 woes
Does this mean that the PS3 can't play BD50s? It would explain why the PS3 isn't in production yet (to tie two threads together)... They don't have much time to get it working if the PS3 is supposed to street 11/17/06. How could Sony be having trouble with playing BD50 with their prototype players if the PS3 can play them? Hmmmm....
From The Digital Bits
From The Digital Bits
Originally Posted by Bill Hunt
And get this: Sony STILL can't get their 50GB dual-layered Blu-ray Discs to work right on the existing and prototype players. The current Samsung player, as shipped, will not play them. How do you like them apples? Ouch.
08-28-06 | 12:14 PM
#509
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From: NYC
Originally Posted by awmurray
Does this mean that the PS3 can't play BD50s? It would explain why the PS3 isn't in production yet (to tie two threads together)... They don't have much time to get it working if the PS3 is supposed to street 11/17/06. How could Sony be having trouble with playing BD50 with their prototype players if the PS3 can play them? Hmmmm....
From The Digital Bits
From The Digital Bits
08-28-06 | 12:19 PM
#510
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
Is it known how many of any given title are sold on Amazon each day, or what the difference in sales rank translates to in terms of units sold? Maybe it's 100 units. Maybe it's 1. Does anyone know?
Amazon makes about $9 billion a year. (It's making more now, it made less last year). Of that, $3 billion is media sold in North America. Since that includes books (more expensive than movies usually), and Amazon is primarily known for selling books, I'm willing to give movies a 15-30% share of that $3 billion. So, Amazon sells $450-900 million in DVDs per year. Figure average price is $15-25 (many are less, many are more), and they sell 18 to 60 million DVDs per year, roughly 40 thousand to 160 thousand per day.
That's one way to estimate it.
DVDs that sell extremely well in a year will sell about 20 million copies. Shrek 2, I think, sold about 24 million. Give Amazon a 5-10% marketshare of DVDs, and they sell 3,000 to 6,000 of these titles per day, consistently. (Obviously, these DVDs are heavily pre-sold or front sold).
You figure at the very best, in a day, any DVD in the top 10 will sell 10,000 to 25,000 copies. Maybe a few will crack 50,000 or more but these aren't statistically significant as this might happen four or five times a year.
Based on all these estimates, I'd say movies in the first tier sell 10,000 units, in the second tier 1,000 units, in the third tier 100 units, fourth tier, dozens of units, and fifth tier, single units.
But that's a wild but educated guess.
08-28-06 | 12:47 PM
#511
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From: NYC
Interesting article...
http://www.dvdtown.com/article/beyon...raystory/3914/
http://www.dvdtown.com/article/beyon...raystory/3914/
Beyond the Hype: A Blu-ray Story
A look at the status of the HD war and the propaganda used to convince the consumer to buy in. Who just talk and who delivers?
Will we ever see dual layered Blu-ray discs?
By Henning Molbaek
With the launch of HD-DVD back in April and Blu-ray in June, we have since seen the first battles in the HD format war.
We have also seen something else that is very common in war: Propaganda. Both sides have told us again and again why they are superior and unbeatable.
The slogan used for Blu-ray has been "Beyond High Definition." One might think that this meant that you would get "more" with Blu-ray compared with other HD alternatives, including HD-DVD.
So the world held its breath when the first Blu-ray discs and hardware were launched in June. It was time for the format to speak for itself and show once and for all that it was "Beyond High Definition," and that HD-DVD was just a bump in the road before world domination.
What happened is very much another story. The reviews for Blu-ray have been mainly negative, and the format's biggest sales argument--storage--is not yet a reality. Sony just can't get the technology to work properly, and currently Blu-ray has less storage than its competitor, HD-DVD.
When asked by "Video Business" about the problem, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment worldwide president Ben Feingold said, "Sony will release at least two Blu-ray disc titles on higher-capacity 50GB discs this year." We have heard this before so forgive us for being a bit skeptical about the claim. Sony and others have been working on Blu-ray since the dawn of DVD, making sure they where ready with a new format when DVD was close to retirement. Strange that after ten years of development, they still can't get it to function outside the lab. However, it is a great way to buy some time for the company and keep the press busy writing about things that are coming instead of things that are. You can't help thinking that this is much like what Microsoft has been saying about VISTA for the last three years, and we are still waiting for that one.
While Toshiba's HD-DVD has had problems, especially in the beginning, the company has been more effective in getting problems solved. Today, Toshiba and HD-DVD have hardware that works and discs that play.
So it is hard not recommend HD-DVD over Blu-ray at the moment. A person can buy an HD-DVD player for as low as $449; yet you have to pay $999 for the Blu-ray player. HD-DVD offers amazing picture quality and sound that is often better than current Blu-ray releases. It also offers a vast selection of extras on many discs, including new features like the in-movie experience, something we have not seen on Blu-ray, where you often get bare-bone releases.
If the Blu-ray camp don't want to lose this thing before it gets started, they have to deliver and they have to deliver soon. I for one am starting to get tired of empty promises on how the technology should work. As an example, on the official page for the high-priced PlayStation 3, you find Sony saying that Blu-ray can hold 100GB of storage on a four-layered disc. My advise to Sony: Spend your money on getting your dual-layered discs working before advertising about theoretical four-layered discs. Stop the hype and let the product speak for itself. We are waiting patiently...but not forever, because there is another guy in town, and he actually delivers on his promises.
A look at the status of the HD war and the propaganda used to convince the consumer to buy in. Who just talk and who delivers?
Will we ever see dual layered Blu-ray discs?
By Henning Molbaek
With the launch of HD-DVD back in April and Blu-ray in June, we have since seen the first battles in the HD format war.
We have also seen something else that is very common in war: Propaganda. Both sides have told us again and again why they are superior and unbeatable.
The slogan used for Blu-ray has been "Beyond High Definition." One might think that this meant that you would get "more" with Blu-ray compared with other HD alternatives, including HD-DVD.
So the world held its breath when the first Blu-ray discs and hardware were launched in June. It was time for the format to speak for itself and show once and for all that it was "Beyond High Definition," and that HD-DVD was just a bump in the road before world domination.
What happened is very much another story. The reviews for Blu-ray have been mainly negative, and the format's biggest sales argument--storage--is not yet a reality. Sony just can't get the technology to work properly, and currently Blu-ray has less storage than its competitor, HD-DVD.
When asked by "Video Business" about the problem, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment worldwide president Ben Feingold said, "Sony will release at least two Blu-ray disc titles on higher-capacity 50GB discs this year." We have heard this before so forgive us for being a bit skeptical about the claim. Sony and others have been working on Blu-ray since the dawn of DVD, making sure they where ready with a new format when DVD was close to retirement. Strange that after ten years of development, they still can't get it to function outside the lab. However, it is a great way to buy some time for the company and keep the press busy writing about things that are coming instead of things that are. You can't help thinking that this is much like what Microsoft has been saying about VISTA for the last three years, and we are still waiting for that one.
While Toshiba's HD-DVD has had problems, especially in the beginning, the company has been more effective in getting problems solved. Today, Toshiba and HD-DVD have hardware that works and discs that play.
So it is hard not recommend HD-DVD over Blu-ray at the moment. A person can buy an HD-DVD player for as low as $449; yet you have to pay $999 for the Blu-ray player. HD-DVD offers amazing picture quality and sound that is often better than current Blu-ray releases. It also offers a vast selection of extras on many discs, including new features like the in-movie experience, something we have not seen on Blu-ray, where you often get bare-bone releases.
If the Blu-ray camp don't want to lose this thing before it gets started, they have to deliver and they have to deliver soon. I for one am starting to get tired of empty promises on how the technology should work. As an example, on the official page for the high-priced PlayStation 3, you find Sony saying that Blu-ray can hold 100GB of storage on a four-layered disc. My advise to Sony: Spend your money on getting your dual-layered discs working before advertising about theoretical four-layered discs. Stop the hype and let the product speak for itself. We are waiting patiently...but not forever, because there is another guy in town, and he actually delivers on his promises.
08-28-06 | 01:12 PM
#512
DVD Talk Hero
Might I suggest a new slogan for Sony: HD-DVD might be hot shit now, but next year when I go to college I'll have more pussy than I can handle.
08-28-06 | 03:55 PM
#514
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From: NYC
More wonderful Sony news...
---As far as Software is concerned, none was shown from Sony.
A Review of the Liepzig Game Convention, Europes biggest Gaming Convention, think E3 in the USA.
Full Story at the Link
http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=19300
There was no Sony conference in Leipzig this week, and the only announcement to emerge was a desultory ten pound price cut to the PlayStation 2, a console which was already being unofficially discounted by many retailers anyway. Certainly, there's an argument that Sony should save itself for the inevitable PS3 blitz the Tokyo Game Show in a few weeks' time, but quite frankly, given the intense negativity surrounding both the company and its forthcoming console in the specialist media - much of which is leaking over into the mainstream press as well - it should be using every opportunity available to it to present PS3 in a positive light.
Consider this: Leipzig was an opportunity for Sony to show off software a full three months closer to completion than its E3 demos, a chance to let people get their hands on the new motion-sensitive controller for PS3 and experience it for themselves, and a chance to talk about its launch software line-up....
Instead, it did none of these things. There is no playable PS3 code in Leipzig, not even the recycled E3 demos which many other companies have wheeled out to the public here. Instead, there is a pretentious booth where bored consumers can lounge around and peer at rolling demos which they already saw on the Internet several months ago.
Three months from the launch of the PS3, Sony needs to start bringing people on board, or risk the Xbox 360 realising stellar sales while the PS3 is still being held back from mainstream consumers by launch demand and limited numbers. At Leipzig this week, the firm made no new friends - and regardless of the strength of its brand or the installed base of PS2, both of which are indisputably key factors in the next-gen battle, Sony still needs friends far more than either of its rivals do at the moment.
---As far as Software is concerned, none was shown from Sony.
A Review of the Liepzig Game Convention, Europes biggest Gaming Convention, think E3 in the USA.
Full Story at the Link
http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=19300
There was no Sony conference in Leipzig this week, and the only announcement to emerge was a desultory ten pound price cut to the PlayStation 2, a console which was already being unofficially discounted by many retailers anyway. Certainly, there's an argument that Sony should save itself for the inevitable PS3 blitz the Tokyo Game Show in a few weeks' time, but quite frankly, given the intense negativity surrounding both the company and its forthcoming console in the specialist media - much of which is leaking over into the mainstream press as well - it should be using every opportunity available to it to present PS3 in a positive light.
Consider this: Leipzig was an opportunity for Sony to show off software a full three months closer to completion than its E3 demos, a chance to let people get their hands on the new motion-sensitive controller for PS3 and experience it for themselves, and a chance to talk about its launch software line-up....
Instead, it did none of these things. There is no playable PS3 code in Leipzig, not even the recycled E3 demos which many other companies have wheeled out to the public here. Instead, there is a pretentious booth where bored consumers can lounge around and peer at rolling demos which they already saw on the Internet several months ago.
Three months from the launch of the PS3, Sony needs to start bringing people on board, or risk the Xbox 360 realising stellar sales while the PS3 is still being held back from mainstream consumers by launch demand and limited numbers. At Leipzig this week, the firm made no new friends - and regardless of the strength of its brand or the installed base of PS2, both of which are indisputably key factors in the next-gen battle, Sony still needs friends far more than either of its rivals do at the moment.
08-28-06 | 04:06 PM
#515
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by digitalfreaknyc
Certainly, there's an argument that Sony should save itself for the inevitable PS3 blitz the Tokyo Game Show in a few weeks' time
08-28-06 | 04:22 PM
#516
DVD Talk Limited Edition
Remember..... the gaming revolution doesn't start until Sony says so. 
08-28-06 | 04:59 PM
#518
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
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Originally Posted by Jay G.
The more expensive PS2 lists for $599.
Games are going to be around $60-100, so $700 can buy a system and one game.
Bundles will exist, but you're stretching credibility to suggest that all PS3s will be only available in bundles.
Games are going to be around $60-100, so $700 can buy a system and one game.
Bundles will exist, but you're stretching credibility to suggest that all PS3s will be only available in bundles.
Anecdotal evidence is the worst type to try and project from. Just because you don't know any older people that play games regularly doesn't mean they don't exist. The only way to truely discount the survey would be to either find another, more accurate survey, or find flaws in their collection methods.
As it stands though, here's some more info from the site:
http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php
For Console Gamers...
* Forty percent of most frequent game players are under eighteen years old.
* Thirty-five percent of most frequent game players are between 18 and 35 years old.
* Twenty-five percent of most frequent game players are over 35 years old.
At first, it looks like kids are the largest segment. However, if you lump the other two into one, people over 18, they are the larger segment. It also shows that 18-35 year olds make up almost as many gamers as kids, while those over 35 aren't nearly as large. However, considering that the over 35 segment could consist of a few people in their 80s or 90s playing game, one can see how the average age could get skewed that far. Which is why it's important to understand the difference between average age and median age.
If they are polling who BUYS games, I can see that data being accurate. It just is not accurate about who is PLAYING games. There is no way there are more people 18 and older playing games than those under 18. No way.
08-28-06 | 06:01 PM
#519
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
It just is not accurate about who is PLAYING games. There is no way there are more people 18 and older playing games than those under 18. No way.
08-28-06 | 07:23 PM
#521
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
There is no way there are more people 18 and older playing games than those under 18. No way.
You have to look at it this way. 30 year olds used to play video games (arcarde, consoles, pc games) when they were in highschool. They got older but many didn't kick the habit of gaming. Now they're 30+ years old with disposable income.
These 30-something's have no problem dropping money down on gaming, while the teenagers have no choice (for the most part) but to rely on their parents to purchase them.
08-29-06 | 02:47 AM
#522
DVD Talk Gold Edition
Originally Posted by The Bus
No, it's not known. There's not even a direct linear correlation. Being #1 doesn't mean you sell 100x more than #100. And it could be that #1204 and #1205 sold the same amount in a day, but #1204 sold them slightly earlier in the day and thus appeared to sell them quicker.
Amazon makes about $9 billion a year. (It's making more now, it made less last year). Of that, $3 billion is media sold in North America. Since that includes books (more expensive than movies usually), and Amazon is primarily known for selling books, I'm willing to give movies a 15-30% share of that $3 billion. So, Amazon sells $450-900 million in DVDs per year. Figure average price is $15-25 (many are less, many are more), and they sell 18 to 60 million DVDs per year, roughly 40 thousand to 160 thousand per day.
That's one way to estimate it.
DVDs that sell extremely well in a year will sell about 20 million copies. Shrek 2, I think, sold about 24 million. Give Amazon a 5-10% marketshare of DVDs, and they sell 3,000 to 6,000 of these titles per day, consistently. (Obviously, these DVDs are heavily pre-sold or front sold).
You figure at the very best, in a day, any DVD in the top 10 will sell 10,000 to 25,000 copies. Maybe a few will crack 50,000 or more but these aren't statistically significant as this might happen four or five times a year.
Based on all these estimates, I'd say movies in the first tier sell 10,000 units, in the second tier 1,000 units, in the third tier 100 units, fourth tier, dozens of units, and fifth tier, single units.
But that's a wild but educated guess.
Amazon makes about $9 billion a year. (It's making more now, it made less last year). Of that, $3 billion is media sold in North America. Since that includes books (more expensive than movies usually), and Amazon is primarily known for selling books, I'm willing to give movies a 15-30% share of that $3 billion. So, Amazon sells $450-900 million in DVDs per year. Figure average price is $15-25 (many are less, many are more), and they sell 18 to 60 million DVDs per year, roughly 40 thousand to 160 thousand per day.
That's one way to estimate it.
DVDs that sell extremely well in a year will sell about 20 million copies. Shrek 2, I think, sold about 24 million. Give Amazon a 5-10% marketshare of DVDs, and they sell 3,000 to 6,000 of these titles per day, consistently. (Obviously, these DVDs are heavily pre-sold or front sold).
You figure at the very best, in a day, any DVD in the top 10 will sell 10,000 to 25,000 copies. Maybe a few will crack 50,000 or more but these aren't statistically significant as this might happen four or five times a year.
Based on all these estimates, I'd say movies in the first tier sell 10,000 units, in the second tier 1,000 units, in the third tier 100 units, fourth tier, dozens of units, and fifth tier, single units.
But that's a wild but educated guess.
08-29-06 | 05:26 AM
#523
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
Very interesting. But, do you have any links to show the percentage of Amazon turn-over coming from media sales? I find it hard to believe a third of their income comes from media just in the US, since that would suggest their other stores are of miniscule importance. Looking at the often different and yst still wide product ranges they offer in amazon japan, or amazon uk that seems unlikely. I'm assuming media sales also incorporates computer software and video games.
08-29-06 | 05:31 AM
#524
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by Coral
It may be hard to believe, but it's true.
You have to look at it this way. 30 year olds used to play video games (arcarde, consoles, pc games) when they were in highschool. They got older but many didn't kick the habit of gaming. Now they're 30+ years old with disposable income.
These 30-something's have no problem dropping money down on gaming, while the teenagers have no choice (for the most part) but to rely on their parents to purchase them.
You have to look at it this way. 30 year olds used to play video games (arcarde, consoles, pc games) when they were in highschool. They got older but many didn't kick the habit of gaming. Now they're 30+ years old with disposable income.
These 30-something's have no problem dropping money down on gaming, while the teenagers have no choice (for the most part) but to rely on their parents to purchase them.
08-29-06 | 08:39 AM
#525
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From: NYC
Hmmmm....
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...ray_Titles/200
edit: lest you think i'm completely blinded by HD DVD, I realize that if it is Universal, it will be a SERIOUS problem for HD DVD. I doubt it. I have a feeling it will be a smaller company. If it IS Universal, it will be the first piece of good news to come out of the BD camp since....well....ever.
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...ray_Titles/200
Also hinted: a new studio format partner for Blu-ray. Given that the only two major remaining studios yet to formally announce Blu-ray support are Universal and New Line, the official news should be exciting indeed.
Last edited by digitalfreaknyc; 08-29-06 at 08:52 AM.