If youve been a part of the previous threads, you would know that ps3 versus 360 is discussed and relevant to the hd-dvd vs bluray discussions.

Especially since Sony fanboys basically claim the PS3 will be the BD savior. To try and separate the topics is really futile.

News from TDB....

"That's a very cool development, I'll tell you. I'm somewhat surprised to find myself saying this, but HD-DVD is quietly making Blu-ray Disc look pretty silly. Motivated as I've been by a desire to see this format war end quickly, I was quick to sing the potential praises of Blu-ray Disc early on, simply because it seemed to have the clear advantages of better technology and much broader studio support, plus the potential market-share dominance of the forthcoming PS3 game system. And to be honest, my very early experiences with HD-DVD were disappointing. Since that time, however, an interesting this has happened... the early Blu-ray experience has turned out to be pretty lackluster too. Discs have looked bad, the Samsung player is a disaster and Sony's over-priced the PS3 right out of the market (you'll be able to buy both an Xbox 360 AND a Nintendo Wii for the price of a PS3). Sony and their BD camp allies are just not delivering on the promise of their format - period. Meanwhile, HD-DVD software and Toshiba's hardware (via these firmware updates) just keeps getting better and better. And get this: Sony STILL can't get their 50GB dual-layered Blu-ray Discs to work right on the existing and prototype players. The current Samsung player, as shipped, will not play them. How do you like them apples? Ouch.

If the BD camp doesn't do something dramatic and fast... they will have lost the hearts and minds of the early adopters to HD-DVD. To my thinking at least, HD-DVD is looking better and better all the time... and it seems to me it's now the format to beat."

On the flip side of all the free-for-alling going on, HD-dvd titles quickly dropping to 14.99, plus Amazon discount, have me considering waiting a bit to pick up most titles on release day. The future looks good if this continues!

I could not disagree with this statement more. MOST gamers want the new systems for the innovations in graphics and new forms of gameplay. HiDef is hardly a factor at all in deciding to upgrade. "That new Madden on <console of choice> looks badass!" is the reason most upgrade.

I think many PS3s will end up hooked up to HDTVs, but it will be a minority.

I agree. You can see the difference between 360 games and Xbox games without HD. HD is nice but not needed, and it will continue to be that way until they reach photorealism in graphics (at least a few generations away).

Now, I will say that without HD you're not getting all that you could get out of an HD game system, but that doesn't mean that just because you don't have HD you won't enjoy it. There are certainly people who lack a surround sound system and a good progressive display, but they can still enjoy DVD. HD is totally optional, and not the only reason to buy into the HD-capable game consoles.

Tell me how the numbers are wrong. If PS3 has 50-100 times more systems out there than HD-DVD has players, then HD-DVD will have to have an adoption rate that's 50-100 times larger just to match the number of discs sold.

The problem is that the significant difference in numbers of machines between the two formats means that directly comparing adoption rates is near meaningless. As an exagerrated hypthetical, a third format my have an adoption rate of some 100 discs per player, but if there's only one player out in the market owned by some guy buying 100 movies, the volume of discs sold per title will be crap. Studios care how many discs of each title they can sell. Adoption rate gives some idea, but only when it's multiplied to the number of players out there.

Because your "then" doesn't follow the "if". Your statement only makes sense if you assume each and every person who buys a PS3 uses it extensively to watch movies. There's no denying that the potential market for Blu-ray is orders of magnitude larger than HD DVD thanks to the PS3, but your "if" refers to hardware sales and your "then" refers to software sales, and the two don't necessarily go hand-in-hand when the players have different primary functions.

How? The only relevance I can see is maybe ps3 vs the HD-DVD drive for the 360. Wii shouldn't even enter into the equation.

Even if Sony loses dominance in the video game industry for this generation, there's still going to be 2-6 million PS3s that can play BD video out of the box. The question is how many people will utilize that functionality, and to what extent.

No it doesn't. Adoption rate is an average: how many movie disc sales on average does each machine generate. If only 2% of PS3 owners buy the same number of movie discs that HD-DVD owners buy, the same number of discs for each format will be sold, despite the adoption rate for PS3 being a fraction of that of HD-DVD. PS3's adoption rate can be exponentially smaller than HD-DVD, on the order of a fraction of a disc sold per machine, and still match up.

Apologies. I understand what adoption rate is; I apparently just wasn't paying as close attention to what you were typing as I should have and mistakenly assumed you were referring to unit sales.

The question is, how small a minority exactly?

An independent survey says that 26% of all US households will have at least one HDTV by the end of 2006:
http://www.nds.com/worldvision/thirty/article_5.html

Assuming that 26% of all PS3 buyers will have HDTV also (likely to be higher actually), that means that of 4 million PS3s shipped, 2 million to the US, there will be 520,000 PS3s in homes with HDTV.

But wait, not all those homes will attach the PS3 to their main TV. Let's even say around 40% of HDTV owners don't play it on their main TV. That means only 60% of PS3s will be hooked up to the main HDTV in the house. That makes 312,000 PS3s hooked up to a HDTV.

However, there's a twist: according to another article about 30% of HDTV owners will own a second HDTV by the end of the year 2006. That would add another 62,000 PS3s hooked up to an HDTV. So the total would be 374,000 PS3s hooked up to HDTVs.

Now, let's assume that of the people with an HDTV, and their PS3 hooked up to an HDTV, only about a quarter of those, or 25% become regular BD movie buyers, i.e. buying about the same amount as those with HD-DVDs. That would make a base of 93,500 BD movie buyers, or about 5% of all people that bought the PS3. Another way to look at it would be to say that all of those with PS3s hooked up to an HDTV adopt about a quarter of what HD-DVD player buyers do. The number of movie discs sold would be the same either way.

Then there's the standalone players as well.

As of June, HD-DVD had shipped 20,000 units to US. If that number quadruples to 80,000 by the end of the year, that's still under what PS3 may accomplish.

Then there's the unique situation of the PS3 in that, as more people buy HDTVs, more people will have PS3s attached to HDTVs, bringing more potential BD movie buyers into the fold without those homes having to invest any additional money; unlike HD-DVD, which will require those households to buy additional hardware.

I can only speak from personal experience, but I own an HDTV and when I use a console I normally use it on a SDTV. I know someone with a 360 that is in the same situation. They own a HDTV, but rarely hook the 360 to it. I also have a couple other friends with 360s and no HDTVs at all.

It just seems to me that for gaming consoles many people use them in other rooms besides the main living room and while more and more of us have HDTVs in the living room, we still have SDTVs everywhere else. I just don't see the PS3 starting an HD video boom. Sure there will be more PS3s in homes with HDTVs than HD DVD players, but there is no way to know how many Blu-ray movies that will sell.

I still see the standalone players deciding the war.

I think that is a bad assumption. 26% of the households that have a PS3 may well have HDTV, but that doesn't mean that they are all hooked up to them. Many game consoles are on secondary tvs (kids rooms, etc.)

And here is why the number of discs can be more important than total discs sold (initially). If a studio that is not Sony, but has committed to BR sees that the average HD-DVD owner buys 20 discs compared to 2 with the BR, they may very well jump ship. Not because the initial total number of discs is higher, but because one comes out more as a movie machine (which is why they are in business) and the other is for games. With studio support shifting (and I would guess it would initially be to support both formats), it would hurt BR because as more HD-DVD content is out from other studios, more machines that have a higher rate of movies sold with them, are also sold.

Just like looking at the huge losses MS or Sony takes on selling consoles is nearsighted, so is assuming that total number of discs sold is more important than the average....or at least could be. And if the PS3 is as "good" a BR player as the PS2 was for a dvd player, that would only strengthen buying a good movie player, which happens to be half the price, etc. etc.

People talk about the PS3 being inexpensive for a BR player, and they talk about how you can get a 360 and Wii for the same price, but the thing they don't look at is the fact that you will be able to buy a PS3 and an HD-DVD player for the same price of the stand alone BR players. If I were a BR fan, I can't see buying a stand alone player when I can buy a PS3 and an HD-DVD for the same price.

Try to follow this:

- The PS3 is being touted as the Blu-ray format's savior.
- The expectation is that because the PS3 will sell a bazillion units, that means a bazillion people will have a Blu-ray player and many of them will buy Blu-ray discs.
- Projected sales numbers are dependent on the PS3 capturing the video game market (it is a video game console first and foremost).
- Within the video game market, the PS3 has competition from the Xbox360 and the Wii.
- If the 360 and Wii are extremely popular and trounce the PS3 in video game console sales, that will affect the "savior" effect the PS3 is supposed to have on Blu-ray.

Therefore, discussion of both the Xbox360 and the Wii are germane to this "Free-For-All" thread.

Dude, I know. Did you even read the rest of my post? My end number was a fraction of a fraction of that percentage.

So even though BD discs may sell as many or more that HD-DVD discs, the company will jump ship because HD-DVD has a better adoption rate? Of course it's going to have a better adoption rate, 100% of all HD-DVD player buyers are buying it for HD-DVD movies. PS3s adoption rate will be lower, but it will have such a volume of machines that the lower number will still drive a large volume of disc sales. And its how many discs they can sell that really concerns studios.

Now, changes in adoption rates I can see affecting studios. For example, if the adoption rate on PS3 starts declining, that could indicate that less and less people see the PS3 as a viable format for playing movies. Depending on the change, studios may consider the PS3 not a viable growth format for BD video.

Of course, all this has ignored other BD players.

That's bad logic. DVD was an industry standard, with PS2, Xbox (with accessory), and standalones all being able to play the same media. One could start buying and playing DVDs on the PS2, then migrate to a standalone. With the PS3, once people start buying BD video for it they're likely to stick to that format. If they do buy HD-DVD, it will be as a supplement to the BD format, not as a replacement.

If you were a BR fan, you'd buy the PS3, period. If you were just a fan of HD video, you may do what you prescribe, just to have both formats. But then, as an owner of both formats, you'll be likely to pick whichever format has the movie you want in the best quality. So you'd be buying both formats, which doesn't solve the "battle."

Dude? Look at what I am referring to...."Assuming that 26% of all PS3 buyers will have HDTV also (likely to be higher actually),"

Why is it likely to be higher?

As for the rest, I thought I tried to make it clear that I was simply offering possibilities with the use of words like "could" and "can be" and "may." It was all just offered as possibilities. I'm certainly not willing to die for it, or even commit to it all being my opinion. But I think the definitive manner that you posted doesn't necessarily take all things into account in a situation as complex as this.

Maybe I am completely off base, but I don't think it is as simple as you make it out to be. Certainly didn't want to bring out the "dude."

My other point about studios jumping ship to support both, was simply that it would not be good for Sony. If all movies are available for both formats and there is no difference in quality (and I don't think there will be once Sony quits using MPEG-2), most will opt for the cheaper player. That is bad for Sony. That was the only point. And I agree that people that bought an HD-DVD with a PS3 would only supplement and not replace, but I still think that is bad for Sony.

I still want to know why Jay G. is here if not to just argue argue argue.

Basically, that's what your argument boils down to: that somehow the PS3 will not sell as many units as Sony thinks, and that it will be significantly less. I still think this should be discussed in the video-game forum, since the intricacies of PS3 vs. Xbox vs. Wii are to complex and intensive to include in this thread.

Aside from that, I have yet to see an article that suggests that Sony will have issues selling the 4 million units they plan to ship by year's end.

Suffice to say, I feel we should stick with probably just the year-end numbers at this point, and ignore trying to argue "who will win the video-game wars" in a thread with enough on its hands already.

That was a parenthetical statement, and none of my figures were based on that aside.

That said, 26% is of all US households. However, those who buy video-game systems, especially when they first launch, are not indicative of the population at large. They're obviously going to be more tech-orientated, and are thus more likely to have higher-tech audio/video systems than the public at large, including HDTV adoption. I don't know to what degree their inclination is higher than the popluation at large though, so I let it lie.

Nothing can take into account everything, especially since we're dealing with unknowns and predictions. However, the specific point you mentioned, that of PS3s possibly not being hooked up to the main TV, I had already delt with in my post. It seemed like you stopped reading my post at the point you replied at, bring up a point I had already addressed.

That's a mighty stong "if". If all the studios not tied to the corporation that owns the patent to a specific format start supporting both, that would still leave Columbia exclusively Blu-Ray, with no studios exclusively HD-DVD. So dual-support from other studios benefits BD more than it does HD-DVD.

Why are you here if not to argue and discuss?

1) It's a VS thread. Opposing viewpoints are kind of the point.

2) Your mind seems to have been made up months ago as to which format you prefer, and you already own it.

3) It seems doutful that anything anyone has or will ever say will convince you of BD as a viable contender, apart from an announcment from Toshiba discontinuing sales of HD-DVD.

I'm just genuinely curious because you've suddenly become so active in this thread. As someone who has admitted zero interest in either format and won't be buying them nor the game consoles in question, I just wonder what you're getting out of this.

And if you seriously think that BD is a viable contender, I'd love to know why. It seems like the only people who believe it any more are the die-hard BD fans and...well, Sony, I guess.

You're proving my point.

Aside from Sony, none of the studios have a stake in either format. They want to sell titles. If they see titles selling like crazy on one format over another, then they will support the format that is making them money. Economics 101 my boy. We aren't comparing numbers of title per player, just numbers of titles.

I also have to say that your comments definitely are sort of "noobish" when it comes to video games. Do you follow the VG market at all? While a segment of VG enthusiasts cross over to HT enthusiasts, the two are hardly the same. I think, going by my years and years of following the VG market, that most PS3s sold at first will be going to teenagers that need that "new toy" ASAP. There will be two kinds of people willing to camp out for a VG system, teens and profiteers.

The big question is what percentage of teens own or have access to an HDTV to use their PS3s on?

Of course I do believe there will be a chunk of people who will hook it to an HDTV AND use it to play BD. But ask yourself this: What "tech minded" person that is interested in HiDef movies hasn't heard about the better quality and cheaper price of HD-DVD? If you are waiting for these people to save the BD format, the bus may have already left the station.

It is all prediction though. We'll know in a year's time who was right. I'd just like a winner to emerge fast, though the competition helps prices.

One final note: My cousin, a teenager, worked all summer saving his money. He is deciding wether he should get a PS3 and a few games or a car. The pricing of PS3 puts it on a whole different tier of purchasing (and XB360 is pretty close).

The fact that he's making that decision should let you guys know how excited a LOT of people are about the PS3. It is not too expensive. Not to the first 5 million buyers anyway.