Didn't Xbox have a higher amount of HD sets and broadband access than PS2 by percentage? If that's the case why would you assume that the PS3 would buck the trend and have a higher percentage than 360 when it's still going to be the gaming system of the masses?

FWIW most estimates I've read shoot for around 300,000-400,000 standalone HD DVD players by the end of 2006.

The primary flaw in your argument ins that the PSP was never released solely as a movie-playback format. It's primary intent was as a handheld gaming device, and it was targeted specifically at gamers. The fact that it also played movies was just a plus for PSP owners. And considering that there was nothing in the same class of handheld gaming devices, it is not surprising that it has sold well, and that a few movies rode those coattails for a brief period. But comparing sales of UMDs to the sale of either HD-DVD or Blu-ray is definitely an apples-oranges comparison. It just makes no sense.

It only makes no sense to you because you are blinding yourself from the reality of the situation. HD-DVD will fail. Blu-Ray will succeed. 300-400k players in homes by end of 06? BR will have millions by end of 06. Not to mention stand alone players that will actually do 1080p output.

And by the words of Larry Appleton.. Maybe you should talk to my good friend, Realitos, the god of Reality.

If you think Sony will deliver a million PS3s by the end of the year you may need to speak with him as well.

You realize that you're not saying anything here that RoboDad isn't either (perhaps differing in the number of PS3s sold). There's no argument that the PS3 will sell very well. The question is whether or not those hundreds of thousands/millions will invest heavily in Blu-ray software, and the answer, until the console comes out, is so speculatory that no answer should be considered definitive enough to make a jab like your "Realitos" one.

Millions of PS3s, but how many BR movies will be purchased? PS3 is a gaming console first and people have to purchase $60+ games for it. BR movies aren't their priority especially when they may not have much cash left after paying for the console and the games.

Standalone players for BR? $1,000+ is a hard sell.

If HD-DVD sells 300-400k players, you can bet the overwhelming majority of them will be used for HD-DVD movies. Studios will take notice of that.

And, my point is that joe blow or kid gamer wont see a difference in pq/aq to warrant spending $5-10 more on a BD disc. DVDs have gotten VERY cheap now.

I think your overestimating the pq difference. Yes, its good, but its not like the difference of VHS to DVD.

I think it very possibly could have a big effect, BUT I just dont think anyone can assume it will have one.

Sony is banking on it and they might just be putting their eggs in one basket mistakenly.

IF, this war is more towards a niche market and J6P doesnt buy it at first (due to the higher cost). Thats the question that unanswered. How will j6p respond?? We just dont know yet. AND, if they dont respond, they would be neglecting that niche market who wants standalone players (by charging twice as much).

If the formats remain niche and if Toshiba is able to get an SoC player out at a similar price to the A1, and if the more expensive BD players struggle against it for early adopter dollars, Panasonic, Philips, Samsung, Sony, Pioneer, et al will simply cut their prices. It ain't rocket surgery.

It is so much fun arguing about the future.

No it ain't but by the time that happens, this war could be over. I don't see them dropping that drastically in the next year. Remember, Toshiba STARTED at $500. It's only going to drop from there.

Rocket surgery?

What if the construction cost of each unit is simply too expensive to cut the cost down to what Toshiba is charging? They may not be able to do this. I’ve heard something about it being an expensive process to produce BR DVDs compared to HD DVD. I read that new factory constructions were needed, where as with HD DVD, they can be made at a typical DVD factory (true?). The cost to make BR and the hit they’ll take on the PS3 could make it impossible for Sony to cut their cost for standard players in half.

Rocket surgery: an amalgam of two hackneyed old phrases, rocket science, and brain surgery, for those bored senseless by the old cliches.

The CE companies can set any price they want to, just so long as they're willing to lose money the way it looks Toshiba are on these A1s. There doesn't seem to be anything intrinsically more expensive about making a BD player than an HD DVD player, even if the discs themselves are probably slightly more expensive for the Blu-ray side at first. Bearing that in mind it's only a question of market possitioning as to the prices each manufacturer sets. If around Christmas Toshiba really are wiping the floor with the BDA companies they'll more than likely simply slash their prices overnight.

In Japan, incidentally, HD DVD has launched at a very similar price to that expected from BD. So far the cheap player from Toshiba is an American phenomena.

Posted this in the wrong thread, so reposting here: The Blu-ray compatible PS3 will come in two flavors, a 20GB hard drive for $500 and a 60GB hard drive for $600. In stores Nov. 17. Sony is promising to have shipped 6 million units worldwide by March 2007.

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/08/e...tation-3-e3-ev/

delete your other posts then ;)

My edit/delete/quote/new thread buttons have all disappeared!

See the "Missing Buttons" section of the first post in this thread:

http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=194140

Well, Jimmy, with a retail price of $599, I guess the $800 cost estimates were pretty close, eh?

Yeah. I'm debating whether this means I get his ass ;)

Well, $599 is under $600. But I'll let you guys work that out. ;)

Selling for $500 and $600 doesn't indicate to me that the device costs $800 to manufacture. Merrill Lynch's latest estimate of $635 per unit is probably fairly close to the mark.

$500 for a crippled PS3 or $600 for the real deal... Hmm...

You mean to tell me that Sony will only be losing $135 dollars on the "core" version and only $35 on the "premium" ?

How would that even be possible with Cell and Blu-Ray included?

Sorry, it's closer to $800.

Do you have a link for that? I did a search and can't find one. There was one quote allegedly from Bloomberg's news site, yet it isn't there anymore. If you're referring to that one, I consider it debunked.

Wow, $200 more than the xbox 360 versions. Hmm....so what is so great about a 60gb PS3?? Are there any other differences?

I really think Xbox can pick up some ground with this news. When facing Christmas, parents will look at price. If the 360 is available for $200 less AND Halo 2 is out. Hmm, looks like a problem for PS3. Thats not to mention the HD-DVD drive that will be out soon.

I guess we will find out.