I was gonna say add "suspended" in your sig. I didn't see a certain post he made, but I was scrolling through one of the HD threads and his title got changed.

Jimmy -- both of them, or rather, one of him -- is having a time-out. Remember to keep the chatter about the HD-DVD/DVD/Laserdisc/VHS/WMV-HD/CED/Beta cagematch and not about users who aren't going to be able to respond for a little while.

With BD still a month and a half away from releasing, I'm wondering if we'll start seeing some really big titles from the HD camp. Specifically King Kong and Batman Begins. I wonder if they'll try to get those blockbusters out before BD launches.

HD has been playing it VERY smart lately, IMHO. I'm sure they're not going to screw this one up. Maybe that's why they've been doing the "soft" release. I have a feeling come June, they'll ramp things up.

I agree. I think Goodfellas was the first real "must have" title for alot of people. Now that the launch is over and the players have been out a month, we'll only see better releases in the coming weeks. I can't wait to get to a point to where I have one full row of my shelf filled with those pretty little red cases.

Enh. I've decided i'm just going to mix them in. I love the fact that I can get rid of my SD thick version of Jarhead and put in my nice slim HD version. Definitely saves space. :)

Totally agree on the first part. In fact why should it matter to any of us if Sony is taking a bath on the PS3? Just means more affordable technology as far as I can see. As to not trusting Sony, I'd expand that to include all the CE companies. None of them have been doing a stellar job of fulfilling their promises IMO.

That doesn't really make any sense though, does it. This period before BD launches is an open goal for Toshiba to pump their product into the market and create brand awareness. So far they haven't delivered nearly enough players to satisfy the demand already out there, and the advertising hasn't been all that noticable from what I've read. Shouldn't they be taking advantage of the lack of opposition to get some touchdowns in before all the other major CE companies line up opposite them?

If Toshiba would have had enough lead time to seriously ramp up production of players, and still achieve their April launch, I would agree with you. But, since players are in short supply, I don't know if an advance marketing blitz or the release of mega-hit titles would have worked to their advantage.

Under the circumstances, I think it makes more sense to time the release of bigger titles, along with more significant numbers of players (assuming they have been working around the clock to increase player production), to coincide with the launch of Blu-ray, thus stealing as much of the limelight from them as possible.

Exactly. This is ALL about timing at this point. And their timing has been very very good.

Those are really the only things under Toshibas control: ramping up production of the A1 (and clones) and marketing majic. Since we're continually told Tosh could have made the Nov launch last year, but for the AACS final ratification, they should have been able to supply more players by now, surely. The AACS compliance could have been handled by having both propossed options in the player, with a simple code available to validate the finally agreed version. The onus for the lack of players on the market really does rest with them.

This impacts software availability, since the HD DVD studios have scaled back their initial line up of titles due to a smaller market. If Toshiba had been able to get their player out there in larger numbers there may have even been defections from the Blu-ray studios by the time of BD launch. As it stands now there's a chance BD will launch with enough titles to equal the entire 2 month output of HD DVD software. That's a missed opportunity in my opinion.

But what will sell more:

The two or three titles a week that many HD owners are gobbling up as they come out
or
A selection of 20 or 30 titles where the buyer buys one or two, ESPECIALLY when he has to spend an extra $500 to play them?

I think the installed base so far is small enough, and eager enough to absorb new titles slowly, making each title sell better.

It's a soft launch; I think the "real" launch will be when BR (soft) launches their product.

As far as advertising,, I think the lack of availability (sell-through) on the players would make for frustrated buyers if there was too much advertising. Once the CEs can keep up with the demand, then we'll see more of a push.

Yeah, I have to admit I think the way Toshiba and the movie studios are doing it is smart. They release 50 discs next week and I'm still only getting 1 or 2 of them. I expect both to ramp up slowly the rest of the year and then have a big push for the holidays.

To repeat: This war will not be settled this year (or with 1st gen players), period.

Also, I'm trying to figure out why people are so up in arms over the $500/600 price of the PS3. We've been discussing for months that the price would likely have to be at least $500 and probably less than 600. Seems that reality is precisely in line with the consensus around here, yet people are moaning and groaning and declaring it a loser to the 360 already. Is no one capable of sustaining a thought through a press release?

Total agreement, but I think this holiday season will be critical for HD DVD. If they can't make a solid dent this Christmas I see the studios start to lose faith in the format.

I think that those that were expecting a better price are the ones complaining most. To me, it is sort of an "I told you so" since this pricing is exactly what I figured, and I still think it is too pricey for the market.

There were plenty of wild $800+ speculative price points thrown arround on another place I'm a member, was it not the same here? Many of the people acting all shocked at the price and claiming it's too expensive were the same ones previously predicting such dire figures. Is that the same here too? The price seems pretty much as expect to me personally, though I'm surprised at the dual SKU.

That's a circular argument. - The studios are wise to release only a few movies because there aren't enough players to sell to yet: there isn't enough call for players so Toshiba are right to have not gone overboard on the production yet. - To grow the market the studios need to put out movies which will entice people to buy in. And to persuade the studios to release their prime properties Toshiba need to get more players in stores and then into people's living rooms. A lot more players. And this was their unopposed opportunity to get as many out as they could sell. So far it's not looking all that impressive in terms of the figures available.

BTW what changes do you foresee coming from Toshiba which would make their player "hard launch" when BD companies "soft launch"? And what possible benefit is there to them to delay any of these changes until they have competition?

I said it would be $700....so I was wrong.

$600 is still alot for most people.

I don't think Toshiba could sell all that many more than are out right now, regardless of the quality or quantity of movies. I don't think there's enough interest in pre-recorded HD movies to move 150,000 players right now...HD-DVD, Blu-ray, or otherwise.

I'd imagine it'll be the same story with Blu-ray when it launches...maybe even worse, considering the substantially higher price tag.

The real battle isn't going to start until closer to the holidays.

I'm not kidding when I ask this...

How many people are really going to get HD-DVD and Blu-Ray? Right out of the gate?

It seems like a lot of people who said they were going to wait OR said that they would just get Blu-Ray seem to have jumped on the HD bandwagon (myself included). It doesn't seem like a lot of those people will get a PS3 OR a stand-alone for BR (and good luck to them if they can afford both).

I guess this makes me wonder (and I really can't wrap my head around this) WHY in the hell the general public would buy something that's double the price for the same quality?
And to add to that, if we (the videophiles) aren't flocking to BR in mass quantities, who the hell will?

I'm not looking to start any fires here. I'm asking a legitimate question.

I guess there's no answer right now. I just can't wait to see if BR sells as well as HD has. I'll definitely be in stores to see if they sell out and the need is there for it as much as there is for HD right now. NYC can't stock enough of these things. They've been sold out since the day they came out. The average income here is probably much higher than anyone else and the need to impress others is definitely there. But it will be interesting to see if they give a shit about BR.

I am going to do both(because I want all the movies) but I won't pay the 1000.00 asking price for blu-ray out of the gate.

I just bought my XA1 a few weeks ago and I plan on trying to get a PS3(if I can preorder or for one on release day) as well as getting the Wii I will just use the PS3 for movies until next year. then if blu-ray is still around next year I'll upgrade to a stand-alone player.

Oh I'm not suggesting they should have made that many units, but just look at the backorders for the A1 on places like Crutchfield. People are being told they'll have to wait until June! Considering the limited demand right now that's pretty outrageous. Though I agree the real battle will kick off this christmass, it just seemed as though Toshiba could have struck a more telling blow with their first-to-market advantage than they actually have.

HD DVD hasn't even launched in Europe, and has only sold around 1000 units in Japan, so for 2 of the 3 territories the game will begin on pretty much an even footing. For the US it's my understanding that current sales sit somewhere under 20,000, possibly closer to 10,000 units. I'm not sure that's going to have a significant impact one way or the other in this format battle. Isn't it likely that most of these purchases were by the most ardent HD DVD fans, just as early sales of the PS3 will be to the most obsessive Playstation fans?

I have an HDTV, but I am not jumping ship to an HD video format until the format war declares a winner. Sadly, the format war won't be over for a while. There is no clear cut winner at this point and as others have said, it will all depend on how the holiday season will swing with the HD-DVD add-on for the 360 or the Blu-ray player in the PS3.

If the XBOX 360 drops it's price by $100 for both models (down to $199 and $299) in an order to compete with the PS3 and brings in the HD-DVD attachment for $199, one can have a functional HD-DVD player with gaming capabilities for at least $398 which would be a fantastic price. However, as gamers know, attachments to gaming consoles have been massive failures. Sega CD or 32X anyone? What would've been a smarter thing to do would create a 360 with an HD-DVD player, but what can you do? If I can get a working HD-DVD player for around $400 with other possibilites along with it, I am game.

The PS3 is launching for $499 with a Blu-ray player. Granted, you don't get the full HD support, but most people who will buy PS3 on launch will probably not care for the HDMI support. However, one can get a fully functional Blu-ray player with full HDMI support for $599 with gaming capabilities. Not only is one able to play games with this machine, but they're also allowed to watch HD movies. It's similar logic to how the PS2 launched. "Hey look! I can not only play video games on this, but now I can watch DVDs on it as well." I know many people who didn't start getting into DVD until they got a PS2 (I still even know some people who use their PS2 as a DVD player).

Either way, the XBOX 360 HD-DVD attachment (if priced right) or the PS3 are steals at their (high) price points. You get a fully working player that'll play movies in HD and you'll also have a machine that will allow you to have fun on lonely evenings.

However, if the PS3 is a hit on launch (which it will be), Blu-ray might have the competitive edge simply for the fact that it'll be in more homes than HD-DVD. The problem with that is, will the people with the technology use it?

When I bought my PS2 (which was, I admit, loooong after I had already owned multiple standalone DVD players) I decided to try it out for watching movies, on the off chance that it might be passable, and that I might be able to use it as a "spare" player if needed. I never even bothered trying a second movie. If that had been my first experience with DVD, there might not have been a second. I don't doubt your claim that there are people who use their PS2 as a DVD player, but if they do, then I have to wonder why they left VHS to begin with.

And that is the big assumption that many of the Blu-ray proponents keep making, that a majority (or at least a significant minority) of PS3 owners will be using their consoles as BD players.

My gut feeling is that a significant majority of PS3 sales will be for the cheaper, non-HDMI model, and I just can't see that sitting well with the studios. They really want to use ICT, but having such a sizeable portion of their "BD player" base limited to component output would effectively eliminate that option, or else drastically reduce the potential market for ICT-flagged BD titles.

I have always planned to buy both, but only when they are cost effective to me, hopefully in one machine. The $500/$1000+ prices right now are a joke, considering the lack of certain features that I want. So, "right out of the gate" is not happening at my house. I would pay $1000 no problem for a quality player that handled both formats with good audio.

I am still torn on the 360 and PS3. I am sort of a retired gamer since I don't have much time for it. But with my kids becoming interested in games, that may change. I could end up settling for HDDVD/BD compatibility through both consoles and wait out the war/market to get the player I actually want for movies.

Considering BD machines are not currently out, it seems presumptuous to comment much about how many people are buying it and why. Ask again in 2 months, perhaps. I will give a generic, "because it's not the same quality". That could mean audio, video, speed, build, content, etc. This determination of "quality" would be different for each person, of course.