from this thread. I had read the article at the time of that thread although it looks like the article is gone now

here it is
http://pub2.ezboard.com/fglobalgamer...icID=542.topic

http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthr...+console+sales

sales projections are tough-

although if I remember MS did lower their own projections to 7 million worldwide from the higher 11 million they had originally. I did talk to someone at E3 from Sony who did admit that they were working on projections of 45-50 million worldwide sales by the end of the year.

European numbers for 2002 year end:
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,104579,00.asp

still looking for US only numbers

Nope.

I'm not getting huffy, but you seem to have a thing about anyone questioning your opinion. Its like no one on this forum can disagree with you.

For instance the Xbox has twice the number of AAA titles comment is dead wrong in my opinion. Other than Panzer Dragoon, Ninja Gaiden and Splinter Cell (which will be on other consoles eventually) nothing jumps out on the list as a lock for AAA. But if you like those games then they are AAA titles for you. I've said everything worth saying and I respect your opinion of the Xbox (I'm sure other people will agree with you and some won't). We can look back on this thread in January and see how our projections ended up. Anything can happen.

BTW I know Gameboy isn't a console. I will recheck my post, but I don't remember saying it was. I don't see why its sales have to be excluded from the discussion.

PS2 has a lot of great games at $19.99, which give people who don't have a PS2 an incentive to buy one.

Enjoy Steel Batalion. That game's a little too rich for my blood, but I can understand why anyone who dreams of piloting a giant robot could be excited over this game. I just hope they pack a lot of gameplay in there for the price.


I think he meant market saturation. I don't think it's at market saturation either, and I think a lot of people who don't have a console will look at PS2 first, because that's what everyone else has. Madden online, GTA, and the greatest hits stuff are also powerful selling points.

On the Gamecube list you missed Mario and Starfox, both of which will heavily impact system sales.



Project Ego and BC won't be out this year. And those all may be top notch games, but none of them has the visibility of a Mario game.

Panzer Dragoon, Sega GT, and Shenmue are all really good games, but the Saturn and Dreamcast tanked in spite of them. A lot of the best Xbox games appeal to the hardcore but not the casual gamer. So people who own Xboxes should be pretty happy, but most gamers who don't already have an Xbox won't buy won't buy one for those games, and most casual gamers will be swayed more by either Mario or GTA.


Halo had a lot of hype behind it in the gaming community, which is why MS bought Bungie in the first place. The MS strategy was to sell to the hardcore, and they did. Many gamers were impressed with the specs and excited about Halo. But now, Xbox has a challenge in breaching the casual market, especially since they aligned themselves as a substitute for the unstoppable PS2 juggernaut.

None of this year's Xbox exclusives have the visibility of Mario, Metroid, or GTA. If those exclusives turn out to be as fantastic as some of them look, and Microsoft pulls out all the stops in its marketing, it may be able to overcome the disadvantage, but Microsoft, at this point, appears to have the least appealing lineup to most of the people who might be considering buying a console this year.

What?!?!

Excellent points... (insert rolleyes gif here)

Hardly...

As for the rest - that's your opinion. As for gameboy - I said it's not a console because families buy these by the handfull - I know parents who buy their kid more than one so he can have different colored ones. I know families who buy one for each of their kids - just last week I was at this lady's house who had 5 little kids and they all had their own GBA. It's not as common for families to have several xboxes or several Gamecubes. I don't think it's fair to compare apples to oranges... xbox, gamecube and playstation 2 are all apples.

That's true, but the games are all older and I don't think it will be a huge factor in PS2 sales, but I could be wrong - we'll see. Maybe Fantavision will push the PS2 to 80 million units sold. j/k

Steel Battallion looks hella fun to me. I don't even like mech games, but the premise of it all seems so immersive it could be fun. 5.1 surround with a huge controller in front of you and a 61" screen filling your view...

You're right - I should've included Mario - I was just trying to exclude games that were already out... but you're right - Mario will surely drive GC sales this holiday. As for market saturation - I wasn't suggesting that the market was saturated at all. I'm sure there are people who don't own a console yet... and I'm sure most of those people will gravitate towards the PS2. However, with 30 million gamers owning a PS2 already - some of them will be seeking a second console. I don't know - nevermind... I guess I'm not making my point.

According to Flay's thread they are, and that's where I got the info... someone should tell Flay what the actual release date is if you have updated info.

Saturn failed because Sega made fatal blunders with the 32X and Saturn lack of support... they basically abandoned the systems not long after their release and people found it difficult to trust Sega again. Dreamcast came a little too late - it was a phenomenal system, but by then people didn't trust them anymore. I'm getting tired of hearing "hardcore" and "casual" gamer - it seems to only be said by someone defending Gamecube and it just sounds like Gamecube owners are laid back and easy going and everyone else is a manic freak about games and they live in their parent's basement and have no friends. Maybe you guys mean it as just the types of gameplay where Nintendo games tend to be platformers where you can take your time and Xbox games tend to be action oriented. Is that right? I don't know - either way - neither of us know for sure, but I think that those games will sell Xboxes... we'll have to wait and see.

Halo had alot of hype for the PC FPS gaming community. It was never the most anticipated title even among these people, but most people in the community had their eye on it and were disappointed to hear it wasn't coming to the PC. It turned out to draw in alot of PC gamers. Again with the hardcore gamer - I'm going to assume you're talking about the game being action oriented and not the people who play the games. I think only a hardcore nintendo gamer knows what Animal Crossing is - cuz I have no idea.
Not many people cared about GTA3 until it was released and started getting word of mouth and reviews. GTA2 was a disappointment as it wasn't much of an upgrade over GTA and neither game was a huge seller. Neither was much of a household name except for some PC gaming communities. Unreal is far more of a household name than GTA was when GTA3 came out. I've never played a Metroid game, but I've heard of it before... only cuz of stuff like this forum though. Honestly, I've heard more about Panzer Dragoon than I have about Metroid. I'm sure my viewpoint is not the norm though. So far, the fact that there haven't really been any high visibility titles coming to the Xbox exclusively hasn't stopped it from selling 4 million consoles. I think the quality of the upcoming games will help sell even more consoles whether anyone's heard of them or not.

I don't deny the PS2 has alot of AAA games coming out. I'm excited for quite a few of them. I'm only keeping this focused on the Xbox because that's what the thread is about.

You're wrong. I didn't think there was any need to elaborate. Nintendo's games have driven their system sales for over 15 years, that's no niche.

Cumulative worldwide sales for the original Playstation totalled about 90 million as of last March. You can find that at Sony's corporate site in their latest annual report.

I guess you missed what I was saying... I meant niche as in the same people who like Mario like Star Fox and Metroid and the rest of Nintendo's games - those that aren't into Nintendo games see them as all being more or less the same. If Nintendo hadn't alienated all the 3rd party companies that they did, their games might be more diverse than they are. I didn't mean to say niche as in "only 5 people like nintendo games and they all wear kilts". Nintendo's fanbase is huge, but it's rare to find someone who likes Mario and dislikes zelda. I could be wrong about that too I suppose, but that's the way I see it. Guess I'm the only person around here who can be wrong... talking to a Nintendo fan is like trying to talk to a born-again.

When people make ridiculous claims, I call them on it. I fail to see how FPS's, platformers, action RPG's, party games and space shooters are "more or less the same," but then I'm a fanatic so what do I know?

So people who like games? Thats a huge niche!

Seriously I cant see what Mario and Metroid have in common other than the machine they run on.

I don't know why Jolt is so fixated on you - if you were my girlfriend, I'd have to slap you around.

Well, not Fantavision, but GT3, Twisted Metal, Devil May Cry, and some of the other entries may make a difference. GTA3 might go Greatest Hits when Vice City comes out.

And anyone hardcore enough, or rich enough to buy Steel Battalion probably already owns all the consoles anyway.



Well, Christmas season has already begun, and Mario will be a huge difference, especially when the Mario bundle comes out in October. Barring another Xbox price drop, the Gamecube will take back a lot of the value difference it lost after the E3 price drops.

And you're right about second console shoppers. But I think the Gamecube has an edge at attracting PS2 owners who are looking for a second console, due to its lower price and high-profile exclusives.

http://xbox.ign.com/release.html

Project Ego and BC are both TBA, and actually, so is Battlefield 1942 for the Xbox. I don't know why those are listed in Flay's thread as TBA 1942, but the last I heard, Molyneux expected to be showing Project Ego again at E3 2003.

But the result of the failures of Saturn and Dreamcast is that most gamers have not played with some of the franchises that were built on those two systems. So a mainstream gamers is a lot more likely to be excited about Mario or GTA than about Panzer Dragoon because, even though Panzer Dragoon is a hell of a game, the mainstream gamer hasn't heard of it.

As for "casual" or "hardcore," I agree it's kind of nebulous. It doesn't have to do with "twitch" gaming. Mario requires a hell of a lot more twitch reflex action and timing than most shooters I've played. It has more to do with how aware people are of different games, and how many games they buy. People who don't read sites like Gamespot or IGN are unaware of games like Brute Force and Project Ego, and probably even PC ports like Ghost Recon and Battlefield 1942. But they've heard of Mario and GTA, and many of them probably played Starfox and Metroid on their NES/SNES systems. The only game that Xbox has that compares on those terms is maybe ToeJam and Earl, and that's much more obscure than Mario.

Microsoft went for the "hardcore" gamers they bought Bungie because Halo is a game that was anticipated by many gamers who are aware of what's in development. The "casual" gamers saw it for the first time in TV commercials. And now, Microsoft has to reach out to the casual gamers, or it won't make much headway.

Video games are the toys that people didn't stop playing with as they grew up. And, for many of the more casual gamers, the Playstation and the Gamecube are the obvious choices. Sports fans went with the Playstation, while N64 benefitted from nostalgia and multiplayer party games. The PS2 and the Gamecube are the natural successors to those two systems.

The Xbox is the natural successor to the Dreamcast, with some crossover support from PC gamers. The Dreamcast was a great console, with a lot of great games, but it was never adopted on a wide scale.

The Xbox has some traction with which to make a case against the PS2 for buyers looking for a console, but the PS2 library with the ultra-popular GTA, and the cheap greatest hits is hard to beat.

The Gamecube makes an extremely appealing second console for PS2 owners because it has the multiplayer party games PS2 lacks in Mario Party, Smash Bros, and Monkey Ball, and the franchises that people remember playing as kids, and that still deliver quality.

I posted this last month and nobody took it very seriously, but the Bank of America analyzed the upcoming Christmas season for the three consoles, and also concluded that Xbox would sell third.

http://www.bofasecurities.com/featur.../VG-6-7-02.pdf

I think their analysis is probably a little more conclusive than the 12,000 gamer website survey.

What they have in common is a high standard of quality. Every entry in each of those series can be considered a classic, and each is a guaranteed multimillion seller.

It's pretty darn rare to find someone who likes games and dislikes either Mario or Zelda. Because they're both series that feature uniformly fantastic games. In spite of the huge disparity in user bases between N64 and PS1, most of the top selling games of all time are Nintendo games, and not just Game Boy games. Many N64 titles sold over 5 million.

ScandalUMD - I appreciate the non-hostile response and that's the kind of opposing viewpoint discussion that I like. I still disagree with you on a few points, but I think it's mostly a matter of perspective. All of the predictions including BofA's and the 12000 gamer survey are nothing more than speculations and we won't know for sure until Jan 2003 when the dust settles. I'll drop out of this argument since a) people seem to get easily upset about things I say and b) I honestly could care less which system sells more as long as cool games keep coming out since I have all 3 in my house. I'll just say that I'm personally excited most over Xbox's lineup which probably skews my viewpoint on this subject in much the same way someone else's love for Nintendo's future lineup will skew their perception... I can't wait for these games to come out and in spite of everything I've said - I think my current most anticipated title is GTA Vice City - only cuz it's so near the release date. That game makes me giddy.

That's your opinion (granted - a popular one)... but indeed those games will likely sell at least a million.
I love games and have always disliked most Nintendo games - I know a bunch of people who are just like me, but again - that's gotta be due to perspective. I didn't think I was rare, but it's entirely possible. I know that when it was Sega vs. Nintendo for awhile, people took sides and the sega people never warmed up to Nintendo. Perceptions again? I was teenager back then.

I agree Nintendo did some dumb things in the N64 days to push away developers. However that is all but gone. It's no longer a factor. Before you say that there are still "hard feelings" or what not, Developers are going to go where they think they can make money. If a developer is not releasing a game on a console it's because of two reasons only. They are either being paid not to, or they don't think their sales will be enough to justify the development of the game. It's that simple.

1 reason you don't see as large of diversity is because of Nintendo's 1st Party games, not their relations department. Nintendo releases hit after hit after hit. Quality titles nearly every time. Such a large success can and will drive away competing software firms. If a large portion of the user base is guaranteed to spend their money on software that has yet to be released you (as a developer) have to question if you can compete to win their dollars.

The reason it's "rare" to find someone who likes Mario and not Zelda is because the titles are super high quality, not because Nintendo put sub-conscience messages into games to brainwash people into loving their work. It's not unreasonable to assume people will enjoy playing more then one type of good game.

If you encounter these problems when talking to Nintendo fans all the time, maybe, just maybe that it's not them that are the problem, and maybe its you. Probability is in your favor. Sure there are idiot Nintendo fans, I know plenty, but they all aren’t by any means. I'd be more then willing to discuss maturely anything Nintendo related.

I think pretty much everyone has been non-hostile in this discussion. I understand and respect your opinion (I said it above). I just disagree with it, but many good points have been brought up by all involved and I look forward to seeing how this shakes out.

We are just fortunate to have three very good game consoles on the market. In the past they have never been this many options for gamers. No matter who comes out on top this holiday we will probably all win with the great selection of games across the board.

I never suggested Nintendo was brainwashing anyone. I was suggesting that these games all appealed to the same type of gamer and that this gamer isn't the only type of gamer there is. It's probably because most of these games come out of the same house. Most of id software's games are very similar. I think people are reading into what I'm saying anticipating that I'm saying something else.

Well - with people telling me "Its like no one on this forum can disagree with you." it just makes me feel like my opinion is meaningless unless I'm touting the Gamecube to be the best thing since sliced bread. I'm exaggerating to make a point. This is an Xbox thread and everyone is talking about Nintendo - maybe there should be a seperate thread about Nintendo. If Nintendo fans are so level-headed and casual, why do they come into an Xbox thread to spread their Nintendo propaganada? I like to have discussions about consoles and games and whatever - I just don't like it when the mud starts slinging. We all have our opinions and I think our conversations would be more productive if we all took it down a notch and posed our opinions as just that and not as facts that we need to resort to bickering over. Sorry if anyone has taken anything I've said as hostile or like I'm trying to stir things up... don't take everything I say so seriously, cuz seriously I don't really care all that much.

Edit: dark - I appreciate the comment. Maybe I'm reading things as more hostile than they are as well... I'll have to watch that.

Trigger, I do agree that people need to stay to the topic on hand. Exspecially keep posts from cross referencing other consoles. That doesn't happen however because somebody, always brings up something about another console.

It's natural and to be expected in discussion, but doesn't work well here on these boards.

I see no real solution.

I tend to only interject OT material if it has been brought up, and someone is either passing along wrong info, or is looking for direct feedback.

And Trigger, you may want to avoid any religious statements, you arn't going to win anyone over that way. I'm sure many of us can relate to certain POV but it's just one of those topics that could turn any thread into warzone. I've seen it a many a time.

good point - sorry about the religious reference.

Not really. Despite the subject header, the first post in the thread talks about all three consoles. It's about sales for the big three, so naturally talk is going to spread amongst the three consoles.

I know the title mentions XBox however the article mentions all three consoles and that they are seeing that the XBox will outsell the other game consoles. It is natural for people who disagree to mention that they disagree.


I am quite confident in my thoughts on who will outsell who. I have believed a certain way from the beginning of this so called console war(not sure why it is referred to as a war since we are talking games anyway )

I have said from day one that the PS2 would remain in front with the GC in second with the XBox trailing in third place in worldwide sales. So far everything I have thought has come to pass- I am not some Nostradamus. I just realized that the trends favored the PS2 and that the GC first party lineup woud continue to draw fans to the Gamecube.

The XBox always had the hardest time this generation since they were new. so far these trends are continuing to show that this will continue. after an early lead in second place the XBox has dropped into third.

Does this mean that people should not buy an XBox- Of course not! If the console has the games you like you should buy it.

If xbox targets the harcore gamers so what? There are enough hardcore gamers to put xbox into atleast the second place worldwide. I mean people do care about games and the huge library of games that ps2 has. But even the casual gamer looks at the graphic and after comparing ps2 and xbox he would be like 'whoa' I was a casual gamer last year. I mean I rarely played games. But it all changed this january, when I trusted my purchase to xbox and now I am a proud xbox owner. I continously played doa3, halo and PGR. and I cannot wait to play unreal championship, shenmue, splinter cell, mgs2:substance. Although xbox has officially lost the console war with ps2. I am sure it will be second. And next generation, I will bet a million bucks that xbox will be in the first place. Xbox owners have been the most satisfied of their console and software sales per console is also quite higher than other consoles. It has the fastest selling title halo which will be nearing 3 million this holiday season. There is no FPS in console that can rival halo. And come next year xbox will be a FPS fest with titles like halo2, doom 3 and counter strike. and there are games for every generation young or old on xbox. This holiday season xbox will advertise the hell out of live and the AAA titles. Microsoft has billions to burn which ps2 cannot match. In the end, I think xbox will end up being in a comfortable second place lead.

I don't see how Mario and Zelda can be considered niche titles. i mean, they appeal to a wide demographic, and are completely different types of games. if they were similar games, that only appealed to people in a certain age or gender bracket, then i could see that as a valid point. However, i know 30 year olds that like Mario as much as any 10 year old. That tells me that the game transcends demographics and therefore cannot be considered a "niche" title.

my two cents...