Does it really matter who gets voted off? There is only going to be one winner at the end anyway.

Well, here's my prediction for tonight's show:

Either Colby or Keith gets the boot tonight.

If Colby wins immunity, Keith does jury duty.
If Keith wins immunity, Colby does jury duty.

I say this because I think Amber goes over to Kucha, and that'll give Kucha the votes to pick off Colby/Keith/Tina. Amber has left high and dry after the last Tribal Council. If Elisabeth plays this right, Amber comes on board to the Kucha side.

Colby was right last week, they should have stayed on course and picked off one more Ogakorian before booting off Jeri.

I agree with you 100% Patman. It will be Colby booted tonight (Keith if Colby wins immunity). I would love to see it too because I cannot stand Colby. Everyone thought Jerri was a snake, bitch, etc., but I have thought all along that Colby was the most annoying.

If I were Kucha, I would NOT vote colby off this week. GO after Amber or any Ogakor other than Colby...Let them think the game is getting level and then zing colby the next week. The votes the kucha people gave him a while back with MORE people there will then enable them to zing him the next week. In a tie, I think Colby would be toast if I remember the past voting...

This is F-ing hilarious!

http://www.101xfm.ca/djs/morning/survivor.html

I say Amber is gone tonight unless she wins immunity.

Bye-bye Nick!
Let's get this straight : The Ogakor three (Colby, Keith and Tina) voted for Jerri because they couldn't see voting for Elizabeth instead of her. I'm sure they have no such warm feelings towards Nick (and lets face it, he's not doing a lot to win them over; he's Gervase without the charm). If he hadn't won immunity, he would surely be gone by now. Unless he wins the next challenge, the remaining Ogakor fall back in line.

I say Nick goes tonight. Colby is up next.
This is despite the fact that best strategy for everyone would be trying to "break" the pairs by voting one of Keith/Tina or Rodger/Elisabeth off. However none of these four will vote against each other yet so the main targets are Amber, Nick and Colby. Amber though is not that much of a target since now, after Jerri's gone, she's probably the person you would like to be paired against in the final two.

Rodger is gone for the simple reason that
1. he will probably make it to the final 3
2. he will probably not win immunity that week
3. the person who does will HAVE to vote Rodger off for the very reasons you state- there is no way to beat this guy in a jury.

I think it will be Amber and Elisabeth, with one of them voting Rodger off in the second to last episode. I think the fact that they used the clip where Elisabeth says "I will never cast a vote for that man" (or whatever she says) is setting up the irony that she has to do that in order for her to have a chance (guarantee, really) at the million against Amber (who by my logic, will win the last immunity challenge).

I like what Patman is saying but I think amber is still better of with her tribe so she migh not do it. I still think Nick is the front runner if not him than Roger. If Cick than Elizabeth is next.

But if Patman is right we will see more Elizabeth

The 1st 20 minutes this week has to be some of the funniest Survivor yet!

Jeff Probst is one cruel guy.

But Patman, CONSIDER THIS!:

I can't believe it!!! I look at the clock and it's 9:10!!

f**k, $hit, mother f**ker, I missed the damn show tonight!!

First time since the second episode!

I am now pissed! ...and it better not be Elisabeth who got voted off!!!

So? ...details of tonights episode would be nice!

Well so far my posts/predictions on 3/14 are holding up. I'm pretty sure I'm wrong next week though.

briank, good points!

Who got the boot tonight?

Brian, that'd work for me. 's the only one left in my pool. Heh.




[Edited by Patman on 04-05-01 at 07:54 PM]

I wouldn't put it past Keith (and Tina) to turn on Colby soon. After getting defeated in the immunity challange (which meant really nothing since neither were in danger) Keith looked a little "disappointed". And if he sees Colby to beating him in challanges he could turn on him soon and in his mind still have a 3-2 advantage (with Tina and Amber) over Rog and Liz. And he would see himself as high man on the totum pole for immunity challanges. Just another scenario to add to the pot.



By the way I've read a few "spoilers" at other sites that basically have predicted the last 4 weeks almost perfectly.
One has the last 4 weeks predicted and was posted 6 weeks ago and goes down to "telling" the final 4.
The other group predicts every week on Thursday morning or around that and they have been VERY ACCURATE with DETAILS from the upcoming night's episodes for the past 3 weeks.

Remember guys: the contestants are NOT playing it the intelligent/logical way! Neither of them!

Tonight's outcome was fairly predictable due to the fact that Amber was quite unlikely to switch sides. She just hanging in there and doesn's have that much initiative. OR, the Tina/Keith/Roger/Elisabeth alliance is more clear to the players than we can see from the show, so she knew she had no chance in getting Tina/Keith out with the help of the 3 Kuchas.

As I repeatedly said, breaking the two strong pairs is vital to winning this game.
After today's immunity though, it is quite obvious that Colby is the next target as Keith doesn't like him that much and he is the strongest contestant in the game. The "alliance" I mentioned will probably vote him off unless he wins another immunity.

It might become important again the number of votes each player has against him so far. I think Roger and Tina have none, Keith and Colby have plenty, while Elisabeth and Amber have two each.

Number 2 is pretty weak. More than likely the final challenge will not be too physical, giving fair chance to everyone.

Argument 3 is correct unless one of the three is Elisabeth. If the third one gets to pick, it will be a tough decision whether to go against Roger or Elisabeth and some may consider E. more of a threat. If Elisabeth wins immunity it will be a mistake to pick Roger, but she may play it honest to the end and go with her best friend from the tribe.

Roger and Elisabeth are both my favourite picks right now, and Roger has the upper hand since it looks like the others all realized there's no way to win against Elisabeth and they might try to vote her off earlier.

But I think the game was lost in tonight's episode when they had the chance of voting her (or Roger) off and they went for Nick instead. Sure, in theory the Ogakors still have the opportunity to do this next week, except that they might prefer to take the opportunity to get rid of Colby (if they get it) - the strong guy - and thus lose the chance of getting rid of the good guys.

I think that this could possibly get very interesting. It was the right move to vote Nick off if they are going to stick to their alliance. He was the only one that could potentially get the strength back to win immunities of both physical and mental kinds. I think both Rodger and Amber could win one or the other but not both.

Now if the Ogikor Alliance contines and Nick stayed in they might find it ending with one Ogikor and one Kucha if say Nick kept winning immunity. If this were the case the jury would more than likely be much closer and because it would be Kucha revenge time.

However, I think that now they could get Elizabeth and Rodger off because I doubt either of them could win the remaining challenges.

Of course this might not hold up if the Ogikor alliance dissolves over the next couple weeks.

That's just my theory.

Mmmm... There is some point in what you say, although Nick's getting back in shape looked quite unlikely from what they showed. Whereas Roger and Elisabeth are big threats from the "goodness" point of view. If they picked Nick from fear he might be too strong, then they won't go for Roger/Elisabeth next as you suggest and as I also think will make more sense, but instead they will turn on Colby who's clearly the strongest now.