Man! I wish this would have been more clear last week. Seriously, of course most of those predictions will come true "sooner or later," which makes them all good bets...

I explained it several times. Sorry if I wasn't more clear. I'll try again:

How the Betting Works

Any bets you make remain for the remainder of the series until they come true. When they come true, that money is paid out. If they never come true, you never get that money. Let's say this is a bet:

{00X} Jack eats a sandwich. (9:1)

You make your bet and place $10 on it. In the next episode, Jack doesn't eat a sandwich. Your bet is still active but you don't get any money. If in Season 6, Episode 2, he eats a sandwich, then you get $90.

The way the bets are done is that most of them will come true. At some point, Walt shows up. At some point, the smoke monster will be shown again. But when?

The point is that you want to guess something that will happen and happen soon. It's about smart re-investment of your winnings. In the example above, someone may have turned that $10 into $200 by the beginning of Season 6 due to better bets.

{011} $7
{013} $8
{014} $20
{016} $4
{020} $10

{011} $15
{014} $5
{020} $31

{011} $10
{013} $14
{014} $30
{016} $10
{018} $5
{020} $10


Holding on to a little in the pot.

{013} The smoke monster appears. (7:1) $20
{014} Two or less major characters are shown before the "Lost" title sequence begins.* (13:1) $18
{015} John Locke's off-island "death" is shown to be a ruse. (9:1) $10
{016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1) $10
{018} Benjamin Linus dies. (50:1) $19
{019} Rose and Bernard are shown. (8:1) $25
{020} An entire episode passes without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.** (10:1) $12

It's a game, I'll spend it all. I have a good deal of confidence these will all someday be shown true. Except for the whole Locke death thing.

If they did all ring true, I could end up with $1674!!! Woohoo!

$10 {013} The smoke monster appears. (7:1)
$20 {014} Two or less major characters are shown before the "Lost" title sequence begins.* (13:1)
$10 {016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1)
$16 {019} Rose and Bernard are shown. (8:1)
$18 {020} An entire episode passes without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.** (10:1)

$2 {013} The smoke monster appears. (7:1)
$8 {014} Two or less major characters before title sequence (13:1)
$3 {015} John Locke's off-island "death" is shown to be a ruse. (9:1)
$5 {016} Ben's bruises/cuts (6:1)
$10 {018} Benjamin Linus dies. (50:1)
$2 {019} Rose and Bernard are shown. (8:1)
$7 {020} without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.** (10:1)

16 {015} John Locke's off-island "death" is shown to be a ruse. (9:1)
4 {016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1)
8{017} Someone other than Jack is shown drinking alcohol. (3:1)
4 {018} Benjamin Linus dies. (50:1)
8 {019} Rose and Bernard are shown. (8:1)

$5{011} A Dharma logo is never shown during the episode. (5:1)

$10{014} Two or less major characters are shown before the "Lost" title sequence begins.* (13:1)

$5{016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1)

$50{020} An entire episode passes without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.** (10:1)

{013} The smoke monster appears. (7:1) $10
{015} John Locke's off-island "death" is shown to be a ruse. (9:1) $4
{016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1) $10
{018} Benjamin Linus dies. (50:1) $2
{019} Rose and Bernard are shown. (8:1) $8
{020} An entire episode passes without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.** (10:1) $10

I missed this last week, but will start this week.

{012} Someone other than Sawyer is shown shirtless. (4:1) $4 - c'mon Kate!
{013} The smoke monster appears. (7:1) $5
{015} John Locke's off-island "death" is shown to be a ruse. (9:1) $5
{016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1) $5
{017} Someone other than Jack is shown drinking alcohol. (3:1) $5 - drink that beer sawyer

Mine for the week:


$42 - {011} A Dharma logo is never shown during the episode.


$42 - {020} An entire episode passes without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.

{011} A Dharma logo is never shown during the episode. (5:1) - $12
{016} It is shown what caused Ben's bruises/cuts before he got on the plane. (6:1) - $12

$4 - {011} A Dharma logo is never shown during the episode. (5:1)
$6 - {014} Two or less major characters are shown before the "Lost" title sequence begins.* (13:1)
$4 - {017} Someone other than Jack is shown drinking alcohol. (3:1)
$10 - {020} An entire episode passes without Sawyer calling someone by a nickname.** (10:1)

Damn it. All this re-explaining and I forgot to bet.

So far:

{001}
{002}
{004}
{006} (Christian, shown briefly before John winds up in Tunisia)
{014}
{015}
{020)

have come true.

also happened tonight:

{002} A gun or firearm is fired. (Ben shot Locke's driver)

How did:

{015} John Locke's off-island "death" is shown to be a ruse.

Happen last night? He was very clearly killed and dead, nothing was faked.

I agree.

He died and apparently the Island brought him back to life.

How is that a ruse?

It was a ruse to us, the viewers. I will try to be more clear in the future. Since I didn't vote this round, I obviously don't have a horse in this (week's) race.

How so? Up until now, we've seen Locke in a coffin and been told that he was dead. Last night we saw how he died. Nothing has changed.

It would be a ruse if Ben had injected him with a "death faking" drug like they use in 24 or something similar. But Ben actually killed him.

Hence, no ruse.

Yeah, I think there wasn't a ruse there.

to me, the ruse was that we were led to believe it was suicide, when it was really murder.

He died. No ruse.

I agree. Especially since I didn't pick this one.