24 3/4/03 "10pm-11pm"
03-05-03 | 11:10 PM
#101
DVD Talk Hero
Well, I finally got around to watching my Tivoed "24" from this week, and I agree with the consensus that it was a great hour of television. One thing to all you math geeks: I'm pretty sure they mentioned that the bomb was 10 Kilotons, not Megatons, which makes it smaller than the Hiroshima bomb. Having been to Hiroshima, I can tell you that the area of devastation was relatively small. Buildings only a few city blocks from ground zero (and this was a more powerful airburst) survived, as did the people. Jack being 13 - 14 miles away from a bomb impacted into the ground would have no problem surviving the blast (the Earth would absorb most of the force).
I'm glad to see Kim finally get with it...maybe this is the turn around in her character the writers mentioned in a recent interview. I can just see it - she's gonna go all Rambo now, start painting herself with pig's blood and dirt, fashioning crude weapons from flint and bamboo trunks, and kick some terrorist ass.
I am officially predicting a season finale Nina - Kim showdown (and you know what will happen).
I'm glad to see Kim finally get with it...maybe this is the turn around in her character the writers mentioned in a recent interview. I can just see it - she's gonna go all Rambo now, start painting herself with pig's blood and dirt, fashioning crude weapons from flint and bamboo trunks, and kick some terrorist ass.
I am officially predicting a season finale Nina - Kim showdown (and you know what will happen).
03-06-03 | 07:46 AM
#102
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From: wishing I was in Vegas
Originally posted by bretski
does anyone know what the encore schedule will be for this ep?
does anyone know what the encore schedule will be for this ep?
)
03-06-03 | 01:03 PM
#103
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Numanoid
Well, I finally got around to watching my Tivoed "24" from this week, and I agree with the consensus that it was a great hour of television. One thing to all you math geeks: I'm pretty sure they mentioned that the bomb was 10 Kilotons, not Megatons
Well, I finally got around to watching my Tivoed "24" from this week, and I agree with the consensus that it was a great hour of television. One thing to all you math geeks: I'm pretty sure they mentioned that the bomb was 10 Kilotons, not Megatons
I rewatched my Tivoed 24 again last night, and the yield was estimated at 10KT, not 10MT. So 12-14 miles would have been plenty of distance for Jack to emerge unscathed.
Still, I'm anticipating that the CTU chopper will retrieve Jacko within the first 15 minutes. Shouldn't happen, but probably will.
Prediction:
Spoiler:
Last edited by kenbuzz; 03-06-03 at 04:21 PM.
03-06-03 | 01:21 PM
#105
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by kenbuzz
I rewatched my Tivoed 24 again last night, and the yield was estimated at 10KT, not 10MT. So 12-14 miles would have been plenty of distance for Jack to emerge unscathed.
I rewatched my Tivoed 24 again last night, and the yield was estimated at 10KT, not 10MT. So 12-14 miles would have been plenty of distance for Jack to emerge unscathed.
03-06-03 | 04:08 PM
#107
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by joltaddict
That was a waste of a whole lotta math.
That was a waste of a whole lotta math.
03-06-03 | 04:08 PM
#108
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From: Northern VA
Re: Math Problem
Originally posted by kenbuzz
(Sorry, I had to take this down and revise it, I had one of the trig functions flip-flopped. I'm pretty sure this is right now. -KB)
The writers gave us a LOT of specific numbers related to the bomb last night -- so many that it's possible to figure out just how far Jack actually was from Ground Zero. By my figuring, it works out to about 13 miles. If the nuke was of the 10 Megaton variety (isn't that what Mike/Lynne briefed Palmer when he was making the plankton vs. cactii decision?), then Jack would've had about a 60% chance of surviving the initial blast shock wave and thermal effects.
Warning.... Lot o' math follows!
The Cessna was flying at 10,000 feet (source: Jack's radio chatter with the FAA). The Cessna's max speed is 210 kts (source: the guy at the airport who picked it out for Jack). Jack bailed at T-4 minutes (source: major plot point). George piloted the plane straight-and-level for the next 2.5 minutes, then at T-90 seconds put the plane into a 30-degree descent (source: plot). So, if the Cessna was flying at 10,000 feet at max speed, a 30-degree dive would've resulted in an altitude rate of -205 feet per second. (210 nm/hr x 6076 ft/nm / 3600 sec/hr * tan(30) = 205 fps). At that rate, the Cessna would've been at sea level in 48 seconds. Since the target location was slightly below sea level, let's be conservative and call it 50 seconds.
This means that the Cessna plowed in at T-40 seconds, so the plane flew for 3:20 from the time Jack bailed out until it hit Ground Zero. If it was flying at max speed, 2:30 at 210 KTS plus 50 seconds at 210*cos(30) KTS gives an average ground track speed of 202 KTS, and a ground track length of 11.3 NM, or 13 statute miles as the crow flies.
So, you're Jack, and you're standing 13 miles from Ground Zero for a 10 MT ground-burst device. According to the NATO HANDBOOK ON THE MEDICAL ASPECTS OF NBC DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS AMedP-6(B), Chapter 3, EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, a 10 MT ground-burst would yield a 50% casualty rate due to blast effects at a range of 7,900 m, and a 50% casualty rate due to thermal radiation at 11,500 m. Jack is 13 miles away, or approx 21,000 m. A back-of-the-envelope calculation for mortality at this range tell us that he would have roughly an 84% chance of surviving the blast (1 - 0.5^(21.0/7.9) = 0.842) and a 72% chance of surviving the heat wave (1 - 0.5^(21.0/11.5) = 0.718). His chance of surviving *both* is just over 60% (0.842*0.718= 0.604), or slightly better than 3:2 odds.
Curiously enough, if he doesn't get slicked due to blast and heat, he'll probably be okay. The only remaining bomb-related risks are due to initial and residual radiation. The NATO handbook states, ""With larger weapons, above 50 Kt, blast and thermal effects are so much greater in importance that prompt radiation effects can be ignored.", and residual radiation (=fallout) is an issue only if he hangs around the scene and/or wanders downwind. Since CTU has already dispatched a chopper to pick him up, he's unlikely to do either.
Of course, I fully expect the CTU chopper to pick him up within the first 15 minutes of the next episode -- can't have the hero stuck in the desert away from the story line for much longer than that. Recall, Jack took off in the Cessna with more than 30 minutes left on the clock. This means that he was flying for approx 25 minutes before he bailed out. Again assuming the Cessna was firewalled at 210 kts, he would be 87.5 NM from the airport. If the chopper gets to him within 15 mins, it would have to fly at 350 kts to cover that much ground in that little time. (True, the chopper is likely coming from a different location than the airport Jack left from, but remember that Jack also had a head start. Any geographic savings CTU would have had would be lost due to their late start.) If CTU's "uberchoppers" can zip along at 350 kts, why on earth didn't they give one to Jack from jump instead of forcing him to take a Cessna. Bottom line, the CTU chopper heading out to collect Jack should take at least 30 minutes to get to him. I don't expect that the writers will pay attention to this fact, but that's what the numbers say.
(Sorry, I had to take this down and revise it, I had one of the trig functions flip-flopped. I'm pretty sure this is right now. -KB)
The writers gave us a LOT of specific numbers related to the bomb last night -- so many that it's possible to figure out just how far Jack actually was from Ground Zero. By my figuring, it works out to about 13 miles. If the nuke was of the 10 Megaton variety (isn't that what Mike/Lynne briefed Palmer when he was making the plankton vs. cactii decision?), then Jack would've had about a 60% chance of surviving the initial blast shock wave and thermal effects.
Warning.... Lot o' math follows!
The Cessna was flying at 10,000 feet (source: Jack's radio chatter with the FAA). The Cessna's max speed is 210 kts (source: the guy at the airport who picked it out for Jack). Jack bailed at T-4 minutes (source: major plot point). George piloted the plane straight-and-level for the next 2.5 minutes, then at T-90 seconds put the plane into a 30-degree descent (source: plot). So, if the Cessna was flying at 10,000 feet at max speed, a 30-degree dive would've resulted in an altitude rate of -205 feet per second. (210 nm/hr x 6076 ft/nm / 3600 sec/hr * tan(30) = 205 fps). At that rate, the Cessna would've been at sea level in 48 seconds. Since the target location was slightly below sea level, let's be conservative and call it 50 seconds.
This means that the Cessna plowed in at T-40 seconds, so the plane flew for 3:20 from the time Jack bailed out until it hit Ground Zero. If it was flying at max speed, 2:30 at 210 KTS plus 50 seconds at 210*cos(30) KTS gives an average ground track speed of 202 KTS, and a ground track length of 11.3 NM, or 13 statute miles as the crow flies.
So, you're Jack, and you're standing 13 miles from Ground Zero for a 10 MT ground-burst device. According to the NATO HANDBOOK ON THE MEDICAL ASPECTS OF NBC DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS AMedP-6(B), Chapter 3, EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, a 10 MT ground-burst would yield a 50% casualty rate due to blast effects at a range of 7,900 m, and a 50% casualty rate due to thermal radiation at 11,500 m. Jack is 13 miles away, or approx 21,000 m. A back-of-the-envelope calculation for mortality at this range tell us that he would have roughly an 84% chance of surviving the blast (1 - 0.5^(21.0/7.9) = 0.842) and a 72% chance of surviving the heat wave (1 - 0.5^(21.0/11.5) = 0.718). His chance of surviving *both* is just over 60% (0.842*0.718= 0.604), or slightly better than 3:2 odds.
Curiously enough, if he doesn't get slicked due to blast and heat, he'll probably be okay. The only remaining bomb-related risks are due to initial and residual radiation. The NATO handbook states, ""With larger weapons, above 50 Kt, blast and thermal effects are so much greater in importance that prompt radiation effects can be ignored.", and residual radiation (=fallout) is an issue only if he hangs around the scene and/or wanders downwind. Since CTU has already dispatched a chopper to pick him up, he's unlikely to do either.
Of course, I fully expect the CTU chopper to pick him up within the first 15 minutes of the next episode -- can't have the hero stuck in the desert away from the story line for much longer than that. Recall, Jack took off in the Cessna with more than 30 minutes left on the clock. This means that he was flying for approx 25 minutes before he bailed out. Again assuming the Cessna was firewalled at 210 kts, he would be 87.5 NM from the airport. If the chopper gets to him within 15 mins, it would have to fly at 350 kts to cover that much ground in that little time. (True, the chopper is likely coming from a different location than the airport Jack left from, but remember that Jack also had a head start. Any geographic savings CTU would have had would be lost due to their late start.) If CTU's "uberchoppers" can zip along at 350 kts, why on earth didn't they give one to Jack from jump instead of forcing him to take a Cessna. Bottom line, the CTU chopper heading out to collect Jack should take at least 30 minutes to get to him. I don't expect that the writers will pay attention to this fact, but that's what the numbers say.
Couple of issues I had:
1. I have heard so much about how horrible a nuclear blast would be from the characters in the show and people I know afraid of Iraq. Obviously it would be bad, especially in a city, but other places (the ocean) aren't that bad. I can't get over how so many people feel that if one nuclear device goes off that the entire world is going into nuclear winter. They forget how many of the things (much much larger than the one on the show) we lit off in the west and in the pacific testing them. I think that maybe since the cold war was a loose/loose situation that everyone assumes that is the outcome if one every is used.
2. What's up with the lack of aircraft at the airport to get the bomb out of there? The entire west coast is crawling with air bases and many small cargo aircraft are specifically designed for short runways and dirt ones at that. The throw some parachutes on it to get it into the airport and then attach some rockets on the side to get it outta there and go dunk the sucker in the ocean somewhere.
Oh well, still a good episode.
03-06-03 | 04:18 PM
#109
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by RLott
On the issue of Jack not being able to hear Mason's lung-hacking in the back of the plane for 15 minutes, it is difficult to hear anything outside of the headphones on those small-passenger Cessnas.
But by the same token, that doesn't account for how Jack heard him rustling.
On the issue of Jack not being able to hear Mason's lung-hacking in the back of the plane for 15 minutes, it is difficult to hear anything outside of the headphones on those small-passenger Cessnas.
But by the same token, that doesn't account for how Jack heard him rustling.
I'm willing to extend the benefit of the doubt on this one.
03-06-03 | 04:33 PM
#112
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Originally posted by Wizdar
I’m also interested in how the next episode is going to handle the huge PR problem that Palmer now faces. Here he is, flying around, without any statement to the public. (Again, I think if anything was done during this ep, it would detract. But…) It would be fitting for the Prez to issue a statement, even if it’s from AF1, about the situation. Of course, this isn’t “West Wing,” but still...
I’m also interested in how the next episode is going to handle the huge PR problem that Palmer now faces. Here he is, flying around, without any statement to the public. (Again, I think if anything was done during this ep, it would detract. But…) It would be fitting for the Prez to issue a statement, even if it’s from AF1, about the situation. Of course, this isn’t “West Wing,” but still...
Originally posted by Patman
I'm pretty certain that the 7th Coral Snake is:
I'm pretty certain that the 7th Coral Snake is:
Spoiler:
Last edited by rfduncan; 03-06-03 at 04:38 PM.
03-06-03 | 05:01 PM
#113
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From: wishing I was in Vegas
Originally posted by rfduncan
Um... wasn't Palmer HEADED to L.A.?
Um... wasn't Palmer HEADED to L.A.?
But, as I think I mentioned before, this episode was about the bomb, and Palmer's reactions would detract from that focus.
03-07-03 | 02:18 AM
#114
DVD Talk Platinum Edition
Um.....season over!
I don't really have that much interest about the crap surrounding the bomb. Am I the only one disappointed that the REAL story ended with 8 or so episodes left in the season?
I don't really have that much interest about the crap surrounding the bomb. Am I the only one disappointed that the REAL story ended with 8 or so episodes left in the season?
03-07-03 | 07:30 AM
#115
DVD Talk Hero
The bomb was the diversion, and the writers didn't wimp out by having Jack spend all day tracking down and then diffusing the bomb at the last moment, the bomb was detonated! Now it's payback, bay-bee!
03-07-03 | 08:29 AM
#117
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From: Wherever I may roam...
I got a bit confused with the 7th Coral Snake.
I mean they made a big deal out of him killing the other 6 and then nothing for 2 episodes. I actually thought that he was killed when they retrieved the real bomb, since they showed some gun fire there and there was someone guarding the bomb.
Of course, that would've been lame if that was the 7th snake since he died like within all of 2 seconds.
I mean they made a big deal out of him killing the other 6 and then nothing for 2 episodes. I actually thought that he was killed when they retrieved the real bomb, since they showed some gun fire there and there was someone guarding the bomb.
Of course, that would've been lame if that was the 7th snake since he died like within all of 2 seconds.
03-07-03 | 09:53 AM
#118
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From: New Orleans
Originally posted by Trelach24
Um.....season over!
I don't really have that much interest about the crap surrounding the bomb. Am I the only one disappointed that the REAL story ended with 8 or so episodes left in the season?
Um.....season over!
I don't really have that much interest about the crap surrounding the bomb. Am I the only one disappointed that the REAL story ended with 8 or so episodes left in the season?
03-09-03 | 10:07 AM
#120
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From: east texas
after finally watching this last night all i can say is HOLY CRAP!!!! i am soooo glad that they actually had the guts to detonate the bomb. many shows would wimp out and figure some way to get around it but these guys actually did it. very nicely done. as for the rest of the show, i echo what most have said, very solid. kim acted better, the jack/kim, jack/george exchanges were well done, and everything else was great after a couple of lackluster hours. and we have to wait three weeks!?! dammit!
03-09-03 | 02:20 PM
#121
DVD Talk Legend
Originally posted by Nathan Gervais
I wasn't. The bomb was threat one with a potential war being a much bigger threat. Makes sense to me.
I wasn't. The bomb was threat one with a potential war being a much bigger threat. Makes sense to me.
Plus, Palmer's got to deal with both the domestic and international nightmare that this will turn into. Domestically, people will think it's the beginning of the end and will riot, and citizens will be enraged that they weren't notified of the threat (even though that wouldn't have helped anything). Internationally, you're going to have France and Germany demanding more proof over the origins of the bomb before they will consent to a war.
To me, this part has the potential to be way more exciting than the bomb.
Last edited by Breakfast with Girls; 03-09-03 at 02:22 PM.
03-09-03 | 06:02 PM
#122
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From: east texas
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive? i konw that it is REEAALLLLLY far fetched, but considering you haven't seen a body yet...
03-09-03 | 06:30 PM
#123
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Originally posted by kevin75
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive? i konw that it is REEAALLLLLY far fetched, but considering you haven't seen a body yet...
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive? i konw that it is REEAALLLLLY far fetched, but considering you haven't seen a body yet...
03-09-03 | 06:47 PM
#124
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Originally posted by kevin75
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive? i konw that it is REEAALLLLLY far fetched, but considering you haven't seen a body yet...
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive? i konw that it is REEAALLLLLY far fetched, but considering you haven't seen a body yet...
You really think they'll find a body of a man that crashed a plane then had a nuclear bomb go off right beside him?
03-09-03 | 09:54 PM
#125
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From: wishing I was in Vegas
Originally posted by kevin75
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive?
ok, this is a totally random thought, but does anyone else think that there is a possibility that george is still alive?