And you seem to be deliberately avoiding the fact staring you in the face that... well... No, it doesn't.

Again, are you using these formats for movie watching, or are you using them for data storage? If the latter, I can see your insistence on the higher capacity discs. But insisting that movie discs be 50gb is like requiring every car manufactured today to have 4 Wheel Drive and a massive horsepower engine. Sure, that sounds nice on paper, but if the car is only ever going to be used to tool around the city, when will you ever need those features?

I know. I thought I had stumbled in there by accident.

I had enjoyed the forum being free of lunatic fanboys, but I guess it had to happen again at some point.

Dr Obtuse, It has been posted to death, but Blu-ray will never look or sound better than a properly authored HD DVD so stop harping over specs on a piece of paper and look at the actual content available. If Blu-ray was going to release something that looked better than HD DVD they would have done it by now. Both formats are the same resolution, 1080p and support lossless audio.

As long as the effort is put in the movies will look identical on both formats. The releases that have come out on both formats support this and the best looking movies on each format also support this. I will take real world evidence over specs on a piece of paper.

God Damnit!! Did I just go back in time to February 2006???

"Dr",
The technical point you are truly missing (and I'm surprised JoshZ hasn't mentioned it) is that the 40Gbps video potential of BD is not only not being used by the studios, it is not technically necessary for the HD signals we use for movies. With MPEG2 compression, HD signals run at a bitrate of 19Gbps. And that's for both video and basic DD audio. With the MPEG4 compression schemes in use for many BD discs, the necessary rate is even lower. What would you propose the BD manufacturers fill that extra space with? Right now they've filled it with.....nada. Not even extras on many titles, which is just plain stupid.

You can rant all you want about what it is capable of, it doesn't mean that potential is being used, or even can be used. If you want it used, send letters to the studios, not internet forums. Pretty sure nobody posting in this thread has authority over the content of next month's BD releases.

Hello Adam:

Allow me to address your points:

My take on attach-rate, a term I never planned on discussing here, was…siding with one of the two formats. Meaning picking either BR or HD, attaching one's preference(s) to one of the rivaling sides! According to the data provided in the third article I quoted in both categories, hardware and software, BR clearly has the edge.

According to an earlier statement by the HD camp, which Microsoft and The Seattle Times echoed amongst others, PS3 owners were primarily interested in their gaming, hence the HD camp’s emphasis on attach rate amongst “standalone players” owners. The reality is rather different. Here’s an exact quote from the article:

PlayStation 3 owners are undoubtedly driving Blu-ray movie sales, and by dint, the entire next-gen DVD industry..

So, if Playstation 3 owners are driving the BR movie market, and the Hi-Def industry for that matter, it is fairly clear that HD’s claim is false. Actually it is quite a fabrication which takes only a fragment of the overall picture to support a non-existing market superiority (let’s call it attach-rate).

Furthermore, contrary to HD’s recent claims Playstation 3 is being bought not only as a gaming machine but also as a movie player. According to the third article in post # 190 the sales ratio is clearly in BR’s favor. Hence, I don’t see how this “attach-rate” could be in any way possible considered in HD’s favor.

Why?

Your assumption that the number of discs sold remains constant is also off, at least according to Nielsen who monitors sales activity in the US. The graphic below illustrates precisely that: growing number of BR sales and a dwindling trend for HD sales (drop of approx. 70% to 36% in May for HD and a gradual rise in sales for BR from 36% to 64%.) Please note that the current state of the market will likely reveal a wider gap between the two formats since the chart below was posted before the Blockbuster announcement.




The chart also clearly pinpoints the rise of BR after the introduction of PS3 (I also attempted to bring to the attention of the readers that the same trend is currently in motion in Europe, but was greeted with sarcasm, in fact quite a similar sales-drive is currently underway in Germany according to a few members on one of the German forums I attend), around the 30% mark, and the effect it had on overall sales. Which, logically, presents the question: Are people buying Playstation 3 as both a player and a gaming-machine? You bet!

Seems to me any way we twist it the attach-rate, according to the data provided by Nielsen, is in favor of BR.

The rest…arguing about titles, foreign cinema, and so on, I will leave on the studios to decide.

I would like to enjoy the rest of the weekend now....

Yours,

Pro-B

pro-b the chart doesn't necessarily show a drop in hd dvd sales, just a drop in their share of the highdef market, which could just as reasonably due to a large increase in bd sales. incidentally, over here in the uk hd dvd shelf space is shrinking in the major dvd stores in three major cities i've visited, while bd space has more than doubled since the ps3 launched. though that is of course purely annecdotal.

that's convenient, isn't it! as has been pointed out there are not so many examples of top notch video and audio on hd dvd for the same title (about 30 titles have lossless?). the reasons may be due to studio variation, but they may also be due to bandwidth and/or storage limitations. certainly one of the most consistently praised hd dvd titles for pq is king kong, which simply doesn't have space on the disc for lossless or additional extras. the movie could have been re-encoded to a lower bitrate for video and then had lossless tracks, but it's entirely possible that would have effected the pq in a negative way.

the specs for both formats are and will continue to be updated continuously, though it seems unlikely additional layers will be added to the rom mix. but then, as with dvd, these formats will be used for more than simply rom playback so developments along these lines are very important.

interesting question. hd dvd started out with some highly praised titles, and has now become far less consistent (particularly universal). while bd began with a series of less than stellar releases and has now improved to a level equal to or higher than hd dvd's best (according to several reviewers i respect such as kris dearing at secrets - apocalypto, pirates, etc). since hd dvd was a continuation of dvd in many ways and microsoft were dedicating a team to the early encodes, which were stockpiled while the hardware was delayed for month after month, the early titles were in a more mature environment and were hand polished. bd otoh has been slowly adding new strings to their bow, with the introduction of dual layer as the norm, avc hp for encodes, etc. now that these are in place there seems little reason for poor encodes, beyond the staple issue of dodgy source material.

I will agree that Universal has seemed to put no effort into the recent releases, however, I haven't noticed problems with the encoding. Its the prints that are terrible. That and edge enhancement that shouldn't be used at all on HD releases (or any releases frankly).

I don't think the problem is with HD DVD, its with Universal picking films with medicore prints to start with and in some cases taking a good print and loading it with edge enhancement.

Universal has become yet another reason I am sweeping more to the Blu-ray side.

strolled into my local Blockbuster yesterday and asked a guy working there if they were gonna carry Blu Ray and his answer was ohhh hmmmm ahhhh well we dont know yet, we are still waiting on who is gonna win between BD and HD DVD, might be a year or so.

So then I told him that the company news about BD being favoured and he was like really!!!! wow didnt hear that. I am guessing that this whole thing might be a US thing, here in the Greater Toronto Area, if I want to rent BD I gotta drive about half an hour out from where I live.

It's because you're misunderstanding what "attach rate" means.

HD DVD software sales divided by HD DVD hardware sales is greater than Blu-ray software sales divided by Blu-ray hardware sales.

It's the ratio that matters. Yes, there's no doubt that Blu-ray is selling better than HD DVD, but it's not enough to skew the ratio of software sales to hardware sales in Blu-ray's favor. HD DVD still has the lead there, at least for the moment. Attach rate is just a ratio, and even though there are more Blu-ray players and more Blu-ray titles sold, it doesn't mean the ratio is going to be in Blu-ray's favor.

To get a better idea what I'm saying, take the following numbers:

1) The number of HD DVD players sold
2) The number of HD DVD titles sold
3) The number of Blu-ray players sold
4) The number of Blu-ray titles sold

...and plug them into the formula I gave above (BD software / BD hardware compared to HD software / HD hardware). Let me know which way the ratio skews.

I'm talking about a fixed point in time.

You said that the HD DVD camp wasn't properly counting PS3 players. If you look at the same numbers in that time period and count PS3 players differently, counting more Blu-ray players obviously isn't going to affect the number of Blu-ray software titles sold (when you go to the checkout line at the store, the system just knows that you're buying Volver, not that you're buying it to watch on a PS3), the number of HD DVD players sold, or the number of HD DVD software titles sold. There are four numbers used in generating these attach rates, and counting PS3s differently only affects one of those four numbers at that point in time.

If the only of the four numbers affected is Blu-ray hardware sales, mathematically, the only way to increase the attach rate is by lowering the number of Blu-ray players.

I don't know how to make this any clearer, but I assure you that I'm right. If you still disagree, please calculate the attach rates for each format and let me know how you came up with those numbers.

I know I haven't posted exact numbers, but the numbers from every source I've seen indicate that there are many, many more Blu-ray players in the market than there are HD DVD players, yet total software sales are much closer by comparison. The gap is widening week by week, but if the number of players outpaces the number of software titles sold, the attach rate isn't going to be as strong. Your contention seems to be that counting the PS3 will increase the attach rate, but it actually does the opposite. In fact, I'm positive that the HD DVD camp is counting too many PS3 consoles to skew the numbers in their favor since not every PS3 owner is using the console to watch Blu-ray movies.

If you have Blu-ray sales of, say, 2 million software titles and there are somewhere around 3 million PS3s and set-top players sold, that means that the ratio isn't even 1:1. If there are somewhere around 1.5 million HD DVDs sold and only hundreds of thousands of players, that mean HD DVD has the higher attach rate.

I still think attach rate is somewhat meaningless overall, so I don't know why we're spending so much time arguing what it means.

Don't fall back into this mess just because some newbie is crazy. Neither format has fully used the technological potential of the physical medium. That fact, and the facts about the capabiilties of the 2 discs are separate issues. Let's not go any deeper into this silly argument again.

Higher attach rate means that people who own HD DVD players own more movies for their player than people with Blu-Ray players and movies. I don't know how much simpler it can be explained.

How are the Xbox HD drives counted in all this? The argument could be made to count them as standalone players, since you can only play movies on them, so that's what people must be buying them for. You can't make that argument for the PS3 nearly as cleanly.

Good morning Adam!

All of the above explanations could be fine if the number of HD software sold remained constant. This isn’t the case! I have access to the 4-5 most recent months indicating precisely what you argue is in the heart of this senseless debate: a constant percentage for HD hardware owners acquiring HD software.

Your explanation for the attach-rate HD dominance was based precisely on the assumption that HD software sales numbers remained constant while BR hardware sales went up. I think it will take us about 10 days to clear this issue as well.

Understood! My contention is that the number of HD software has dwindled compared to the number of BR software sold (with the number of HD players sold growing after the Toshiba sale). Not the other way around.

Furthermore, in about 10 days the June sales data by Nielsen will be up. This will account for the recent sale of Toshiba players as well as the recent software sales numbers. Would you like to make a prediction where HD software sales will be with the sharp spike in HD hardware sold?

Add to the fact, that generally speaking BR hardware (and partially software) is notably more expensive at the time, a factor which should have a negative effect on the BR attach rate and a positive effect on HD, and you have a market set for a total transformation (Christmas pricing, etc).


I agree with the last paragraph in your post, this is all meaningless.

From all of the articles and sales charts I have provided so far it appears that research and market watchdogs agree on the following: BR has the better hardware and software sales, substantially better market share which is constantly growing, and a stronger future outlook, here and overseas, given a recent partnership announcement.



Pro-B

No, my explanation is not based on that at all. Either I'm not expressing myself well or you don't understand what I'm saying.

I think it's best that we just drop it, especially since we both agree that it ultimately doesn't matter.

Yup. If BD had continued on as it launched, there would be no way I would even think of getting a player. Now, when the price is right, I will be a dual format supporter.

The long-timers here get what I'm saying; all these arguments have been brought up since way before there were anything in stores to buy. We've come full circle to where it doesn't matter.

No! Please continue arguing over the 2 formats DVD is beating to death. Their market share is so important to the global economy right now!

I think this brings us all back to my original question:

Who even shops at Blockbuster anymore?

I fear that no amount of crappy yelling posts or well thought out posts will change the main underlying fact that Blu-Ray is going to win.

And I don't like that since I chose HD-DVD.

All I can do is buy/rent my HD-DVD's until they don't make them anymore.

But I can look forward to the day that I AM forced to buy a Blu-Ray player I should be able to get the Blu-ray "back catalog" for a good price.

I'll be buying a Blu-ray player more willingly , but I do think I'll hold off until the inevitable Deep Discount sale in November and just go nuts ordering a big, big stack of movies. Hopefully there'll have been some price drops on some of those movies between now and then too.

I fear that no amount of crappy yelling posts or well thought out posts will change the fact that both formats are going to linger on as small niche products. I just don't see a lot of pent-up demand for next-gen disc formats- the average person just doesn't care. DVD is going to be with us a long, long time.

For me, I just (two weeks ago) bought an HD-A2 and have already purchased the Matrix set and two other movies, and plan on buying two more before the month is out. However, if I'm wrong and HD disc formats take off, and if HD DVD does die, it won't matter because my discs and player will still work, and I'll be able to pick up a Blu-Ray player for under $200.

There is a huge demand for HD movies, but people are waiting for a clear winner before they decide to jump in. If there was only 1 format at this point, sales on software would be way higher then they are at this point.

I cannot imagine that this is the case.

There are people, I'm sure, who are waiting on the sidelines for a winner...maybe enough to double the current market. I might even be able to buy that it'd triple in the somewhat short term. I just don't see most people caring.

I completely disagree with this (though a year ago I would have agreed). Only 10% of the people I know with HDTVs care about HD content. Most won't pay an extra $5 a month for HD cable. The interest I thought I would see grow has not. People just don't care in general about video or sound quality.

We have to face the fact that the HD disc lovers are the new Laserdisc owners. The HD formats will probably continue to be a niche market even if one drops out.

I would believe that if i were a hd-dvd supporter. IMHO, i think DVD players will be slim pickins in a few years and nothing but blu-ray players will be available from all the top CE companys. So if you want to get a new DVD player, you basically get the blu-ray player free, and you can then decide if you want to get the BD or DVD, and most will get the BD or start renting BD from their local blockbuster, and then be 100% HD consumers. Its a vicious cycle. Also, the fact that HD Movies are being pirated at an epic rate right now, shows that there is a huge demand for them. SACD/DVDA werent pirated even 5% of what blu-ray/hd-dvd films are.

That is all my opinion.

Don't turn this into a format war issue. That has nothing to do with it. There's no public outcry for high definition media. From everything I've seen, read, and heard, the overwhelming majority of people are perfectly content with DVD. The only way to make people switch in any great numbers will be to stop making DVDs.