Tracer Bullet

Exactly. DVD had the fastest adoption of any format ever, and by this point I think it's safe to say that pretty much anyone that ever wanted a DVD player has one.

People keep bringing up HDTV sales figures, but I think this just ignores the underlying fact that average people just want the sexy large thin TV and don't really care about HD content.

QuePaso

Its not a "format war issue", it is my opinion and that is what i think. I didnt state it as fact, it is just how i view it, and im not forcing my opinion on anyone.

Adam Tyner

Well, when you make a jab like "I would believe that if i were a hd-dvd supporter.", it sounds like you're saying that HD DVD owners are making excuses as to why more people aren't buying their players or something.

pro-bassoonist

The FCC's mandate to go digital. Feb. 17, 2009 will change that. In fact, a lot of the arguments posted here, including the one above, as well as your previous statement that no average person will plunk more than 200$ for a player is just bogus.

Hi-Def hardware sales have been growing gradually. I will wait for the latest sales report in about 9-10 days to see what the new stats are.

Pro-B

pro-bassoonist

Netflix total revenue percentage for calendar 2006: 996.7 Million
(source:http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6409885.html)

Blockbuster total Revenue percentage for calendar 2006: $5.52 billion
(source: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6419949.html)

Total Rental Market Revenue for the year 2006: $7.5 billions
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010807.htm

Ratio breakdown:

13.4% for Netflix
73.6% for Blockbuster


This answer your question?

Pro-B

Tracer Bullet

Digital does not equal HD. In fact, the only people that will be affected by the switch will be those who are still using rabbit ears. Everyone else will be fine, or will have to get a cable box from their cable company.

dvd182

Not really. It only mandates that channels must be digital, not in HD. While cable companies and stations are quickly adding more HD channels, it's not really near a complete crossover.

We can hope that more people will demand HD content to go with their new TV, but I still know a bunch of people that won't pay extra for the HD channels with their HDTV, or just think that the tv automatically makes things they watch HD.

pro-bassoonist

This is understood. What I think this decision provides however is a potential for more people to adopt the HD concept. Pricing on new hardware will also influence that.

Overall, I won't be too skeptical...

Tracer Bullet

What is your reasoning behind that?

Burnt Thru

there was no public outcry for dvd, and people were perfectly content with vhs. things change, prices drop, and interest grows. particularly when hardware and software becomes more readily available and hence visible. regardless of whether u take this as a "format issue" it is certainly true that most of those pesimistic about hd media's future are hd dvd supporters, while the optomists tend to be bd supporters.

darkside

Wow, this is officially the biggest load of bullshit I have ever read on this forum. I was much more optimistic about the HD formats when I only supported HD DVD. Going to the side of Blu-ray has done nothing to bolster my confidence in these formats climbing out of a niche.

QuePaso

It honestly seems like you are the Exception, not the rule.

maingon

I havent been in a blockbuster in about 2 years. They suck, I use Netflix much cheaper then renting movies from Blockbuster. They are crappy to deal with too.

Burnt Thru

did u just claim something was generally bullshit simply because it's not true for you?! that sort of world view could be described in a variety of ways... it's clear from reading poster's comments in threads which format they would like to see emerge from this kerfufle, regardless of whether they have since also bought hardware from the "other" side.

The Cow

They are the same price for the similar plan.

Supermallet

Did you just claim something was generally true because you read a message board!? We are such a small portion of the general population that any trend in posting here is nothing but anecdotal evidence.

And I'm sorry, but suggesting that HD DVD supporters are being pessimistic as a way to justify their purchase is nothing but baiting and is something we frown upon here. We can have a discussion without calling out supporters on one side or another.

Breakfast with Girls

I fundamentally believe that the history of video and audio formats is one governed by convenience, not improved video or audio.

People switched from VHS to DVD because it was more convenient. They didn't have to rewind discs. They could skip directly to chapters. There was no magnetic tape that could snap.

Why did VHS win out over Betamax when Beta was widely considered to be a superior format? VHS had longer recording times. On the crappiest quality, you could get six or more hours of television on a tape. Guess what mode most people used to record? I'll give you a hint: it wasn't the one with the best video and audio fidelity.

Why did 8-Track succeed? Convenience. You could play an album in your car—you didn't have to call into your local radio station and request it. Cassette tapes? They were smaller. You could store more in your car. CDs? The same benefits as VHS to DVD. Digital music players? Storing your entire music collection in CD quality is extremely convenient.

Which were the technologies relegated to niche markets? SACD and DVDA failed to take off because they are not more convenient than CDs. Laserdisc was actually less convenient, because the discs were cumbersome, easily damaged, and you had to get up two or maybe even three times during the movie to flip the disc or swap it with another one.

HD DVD and Blu-ray are in the same boat. Besides space, they offer nothing additional to most consumers over DVD.

Given the current state, I firmly believe that both formats will continue on as niche products for the foreseeable future, especially as dual players come on the market.

How could you increase adoption of the format, though? Well, one possible way is to make entire season sets available on single discs in SD, at the same time releasing multi-disc sets for the folks that are there for the video and audio quality. Another (riskier) way is to force people to adopt one format or the other by releasing hardware sellers exclusively in HD.

Mr. Cinema

wow, that's a very absolute statement. I'm very curious to know how you came up with this idea. did you poll all HD owners?

Mr. Cinema

I know one thing for sure. This forum was going really well for the past few months and we all were able to have level-headed discussions about both formats without any of the fanboy bullshit. There's a reason why the VS threads were closed and never re-opened. Because when you have discussions about both formats, the threads always end up like this one. We do have separate BD and HD DVD threads for discussion.

Spiky

Seems we don't like pessimists or optimists. (who could, really) You want a realist's theory? First, everything Breakfast With Girls said was perfect.

Next, I've changed my mind. I used to say this war would be won by content and price after 2-3 years of existence. (which point neither disc has reached) But now I am going to change that to one thing that will decide the war:

Cost.

Whenever studios and mfgrs break through and get mfgring costs for players and discs low enough to compete with DVD (on cost levels, not consumer prices), they will start phasing it out. Players will still play DVDs for consumers' sake, but eventually they (companies) will want to put out only the HD discs for movies. My theory means that by then they will have finally figured out how to use 30-50GB of space intelligently and actually have good video and audio and extras, all on one release! (why they simply couldn't port what they have learned in 10 years of DVD is beyond me, I blame marketing)

Sony shows all the signs of beating this one into the ground for a long, long time. This is the main reason I have changed my reasoning. They are going to treat BD like they did CD, not SACD. They will not give up, they will continue to use it for as many products as possible til we are sick of Blu. They want to replace the ubiquitous "DVD" with "Bluray". If Tosh wants to compete, that is what they are up against.

This is, of course, IMO.

pro-bassoonist

The post below may be your IMO but...it is one of the best summations, if not the BEST one, I've read in a long, long time. It perfectly reflects my thoughts on the current market development(s). I don't see a single point i disagree with.

Pro-B

vaporware

The "war" will be decided not based on Blockbuster and their rental market but on a major retailer backing one or the other. Really, it comes down to whether Wal-Mart does in fact back hd-dvd exclusively, which they are already selling toshibas hd-dvd players, and if rumors are true will be selling cheap Chinese hd-dvd players by Christmas.

And if Wal-Mart goes exclusive to hd-dvd, well, that's a huge market. A market that Disney can't ignore. And once Disney goes format neutral, the rest will follow.

QuePaso

This scenario, IMHO, is just very far fetched. Everything that you list is very unlikely to happen and would pretty much need to come out of left field. You need a string of things to reverse, quickly, that dont seem plausible. Also, the end result is not guarenteed. Disney could say "we dont need hd-dvd" and stick to blu-ray and HD Downloads off of internet. There is no law written that they have to support hd-dvd, ever. You have to realize that HD-DVD is cracked for life, any content anyone puts out on it, it will be pirated hours later. They tried to fix it by releasing new HD-DVD keys, and it was cracked 2 weeks before the discs even hit the shelves.

Also, i dont see why walmart, would back hd-dvd with a million players and support it exclusively when hd-dvd is selling worse in hardware and software. Also, walmart is a big sony supporter with the PS1/PS2/PS3/PSP from a long time till now, a long history of working together. Sony and Walmart just set up a exclusive deal where Sony TVs would be sold in stores during the holiday season with Sony techs in the store to help customers with questions. Walmarts biggest OEM company in japan, Funai, has stated their Blu-ray player will be out this year. Funai makes all the OEM DVD players, cheap LCD tv's, etc for Walmart. Funai has done over 1 BILLION dollars in business with walmart in 2006. Not sure where you got the idea of them going hd-dvd exclusive, but most signs point the opposite way.

I just want someone to show me a realistic scenario where hd-dvd can not only overcome its hardware and software deficit, but take over the lead and stop the huge amount of blu-ray exclusive summer blockbusters that are heading to blu-ray this holiday season. This is not a flame in anyway, im asking for a logical answer and please dont call me a fanboy because if the tables were turned, i would paint my cat red and support hd-dvd indefinitely. I just want this format war over.

The Cow

They sell a BD player and 200+ discs now too. They will go with what people will buy, and for the Walmart crowd that will be titles and price, with price being #1. DVD will be there for a long time. (Titles would "probably" go to BD, but that won't matter)

jiggawhat

One thing I wonder about HD-DVD's attach rate, does it count the free discs it gives with the movies as part of it? If it does, one could argue that their attach rate is inflated because they have been giving 5 or more discs per player. Does anyone know if they count those discs as part of the attach rate?