The Antipodean

I have zero interest in seeing it in theatres but I’m genuinely curious how Avatar: Way of Water will do at the box office. You can’t count out James
Cameron but the previews etc have left me cold. However it’s possible I’m entirely out of the demographic that is ready to line up for this. What say you?

DJariya

It just got a China release. That’s a huge deal for it’s box office.

MLBFan24

I voted for Titanic 2 haha

I think Avatar 2 will do well at around $700 million (US).


I have no interest in a theatrical viewing. I’ll wait for streaming like I have for all recent movies. Only a Star Wars movie will bring me back to theaters.

Decker

I think it will do huge numbers, be the #2 movie this year, but not the all time box office champ. That's not a choice offered here so I went with #2.

JeffTheAlpaca

I hope it bombs

The first movie was ok but not great and don't understand how it broke all the box office numbers.

L. Ron zyzzle

Titanic 2 for the win! Avatar will do big numbers opening weekend, and very well overseas. 1.375 bn total gross.

Wolf359

I think there's room in between 1 and 2. It may not set new records but will still do huge box office.

TomOpus

Why would you want it to bomb? To what end? I bet the studio doesn't agree with you nor the crew that works with JC.

DJariya

Yet you’re still going watch it regardless because you don’t want to be left out. I’m sure you’ll be posting sometime in 2023 that it’s overrated

bunkaroo

I don’t hope it bombs, but I feel like it should. 13 years ago it only did well because of the 3D gimmick. The story is bland at best and a ripoff at worst.

This time is has a big gap between movies working against it. It’s not a shiny new cinematic world anymore. And, the MCU didn’t even exist at the time of the first. Avatar might have seemed grand then but now the concept seems small. I think the wow factor will be gone.

I recently rewatched the first - hadn’t seen it since the theater. Still didn’t connect with the story or characters. Maybe these movies aren’t meant for me, but considering I’m a fairly easy sell for this genre, I think there’s something fundamentally uninteresting about this series. I won’t bother seeing this or any of the sequels. I don’t give a shit about FOMO.

dex14

The re-release of the first film made $30mil worldwide during a weekend in September. That is big for a re-release. There is an audience still.

Will The Way of Water break major milestone BO records? I doubt it. But it will definitely not bomb.

RichC2

No clue, I thought the original was going to be a dud so I'm just staying out of this one

bluetoast

I predict that it will be at least in the top 5 all time worldwide box office, and likely top 3.

clckworang

This is basically my thought. But maybe the bigger question is does this movie have to break records to not be considered a disappointment?

Considering everything Cameron has put into it, I think this movie almost has to be the biggest global box office earner ever or it will be considered somewhat of a fail.

jjcool

I still haven't seen the first one. None of the trailers or promotional materials for the second one have interested me enough to want to see the first one or the new one for that matter. I have not heard any of my friends talking about being excited for the release. I just don't see the interest her for this one. As mentioned previously in the thread, the first one had the 3d gimmick going for it. This one, has the 3d gimmick as well, so higher priced tickets. I think this will do ok domestically, nothing crazy. But will do well overseas.

bluetoast

He has said it needs to be top 3 or 4 all time to break even.

Troy Stiffler

Depends. Is the movie good? Am I gonna feel something while watching it?

I have high hopes. It's not easy out there. One moment you're making something acclaimed, the next you're making something nobody connects with. Like it or not, I think that's how people felt with LOTR -> King Kong. What made King Kong so non-special ... I have no idea.

The most interesting angle is that James Cameron mostly worked with 5-or-so writers on these sequels. Most notably the duo who are credited for the newer Planet of the Apes movies.

Draven

You're not missing much. I was never impressed that much with the 3D, but that was the one gimmick the first movie had going for it. Without that, it's just weird and boring.

The sequel looks to be more of the same. I'll probably see it by myself in theaters just for something to do but no one I know (family included) is interested in this one.

It will do OK at the box office, but compared to the first it will be a "meh".

Why So Blu?

If you do end up watching the first go with the Extended cut that has the Earth prologue. I think it plays much better than the TC.

Artman

I think 1.5 billion is a safe bet, that's just over half of the original. With the continued growth of the international marketplace, the China release secured... even if it's more of the same 2 billion should be within reach. Remember this a long term investment, the budget is likely including the 10+yrs of building up the New Zealand studios, tech, etc. There likely will be diminished grosses after part 2 but by the time we get to 4 and 5, a billion is easily profitable for those.

SmackDaddy

It will do well enough but, like the original, the 3D upcharge is going to skew the numbers (the original Avatar is 15th in all time ticket sales but 1st in adjusted dollars). I have no interest in seeing this in theaters, I never saw the original in theaters either and was underwhelmed by the film itself (and I don't think seeing it in 3D would improve the actual film).

dex14

JeffTheAlpaca

Of course it will open with huge numbers but will it sustain it?

I don't think so.

L. Ron zyzzle

50% drop second week - mark my words!

RichC2

50% is quite good for a $150m+ opening, but since its second weekend falls on Christmas Eve/Christmas I think it'll probably drop a bit more but have strong mid-week returns due to winter break.

Case in point, No Way Home dropped 67% on weekend 2 and only made $19m its second Friday (Dec 24th), but also managed $27 - $38m on Mon thru Thurs each day it's first week and $20m+ Mon thru Thurs each day on it's second week.