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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 08-27-17, 09:14 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

https://whatsnewonnetflix.com/japan/...bodyguard-2017

Okay this is interesting. Apparently The Hitman's Bodyguard is a Netflix original movie in Japan.

Why would Summit do this? I'm sure this means it leaked online.
Old 08-27-17, 10:02 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by DJariya
https://whatsnewonnetflix.com/japan/...bodyguard-2017

Okay this is interesting. Apparently The Hitman's Bodyguard is a Netflix original movie in Japan.

Why would Summit do this? I'm sure this means it leaked online.
Summits strategy is to sell foreign rights, Netflix bought it in Japan and it is indeed an original there. The intro apparently even has Netflix listed in the credits.

It won't hurt them much, I mean we live in strange times where everybody seems to know what Kodi is, but there have been many example where hi def rips leaked online and had no effect on box office. I.e. Taken, which was ripped 6 months prior to the US theatrical release and weirdly seemed to help word of mouth. Or more recently, 47 Meters Down which leaked out a full year prior.

We'll see though. I like keeping tabs on this stuff for some reason.

Baby Driver is at nearly $200m worldwide after solid openings in China and Russia. Really happy about that.

Last edited by RichC2; 08-27-17 at 10:20 PM.
Old 08-28-17, 02:05 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2
Or more recently, 47 Meters Down which leaked out a full year prior.
It wasn't really leaked, it was just recalled. Several retailers broke street date though, which is why you can find the DVD version In the Deep on eBay.
Old 08-28-17, 02:28 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by mattysemo247
It wasn't really leaked, it was just recalled. Several retailers broke street date though, which is why you can find the DVD version In the Deep on eBay.
True. Was using it more as a figure of speech as "on the internet before theatrical release".
Old 08-28-17, 02:41 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2
This upcoming weekend will likely be dead as well, being headlined by The Layover.
Is that a sequel to THE HANGOVER?
Old 08-28-17, 02:52 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2
It won't hurt them much, I mean we live in strange times where everybody seems to know what Kodi is, but there have been many example where hi def rips leaked online and had no effect on box office. I.e. Taken, which was ripped 6 months prior to the US theatrical release and weirdly seemed to help word of mouth. Or more recently, 47 Meters Down which leaked out a full year prior.
Things like this is why I was always dubious about studio claims about leaks affecting box office performance. Wasn't Expendables or something leaked and that was cited as a major problem?

It always felt like most of the people who download copies of movies are those that would do so anyway and wouldn't have paid full price at a theater.
Old 08-28-17, 02:58 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by fumanstan
Things like this is why I was always dubious about studio claims about leaks affecting box office performance. Wasn't Expendables or something leaked and that was cited as a major problem?

It always felt like most of the people who download copies of movies are those that would do so anyway and wouldn't have paid full price at a theater.
A copy of Expendables 3 was stolen from a post-production house and uploaded online months before it's release. Movie got bad reviews and got bad press from the PG-13 rating, so I suppose the piracy aspect was only a small aspect of it's failure.

In the case of The Hitman's Bodyguard, it's available legally on Netflix in Japan, but because of that, it's exposing itself to illegal uploads, which I suppose was inevitable.
Old 08-28-17, 03:38 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I think one thing to take into account is a derided movie being released early versus one that is generally well liked.

Negative word of mouth spreads fast and when that WOM starts well before the movie does it could cause some box office problems for it. That said, there isn't a ton to support that either, even Ang Lee's Hulk - which was torn apart by those that saw it early - still opened strongly (before dropping like a rock, -70% 2nd weekend). Expendables 3 was poorly received by critics and fans alike, was poorly promoted, was confirmed to be pretty bad due to the early release, and was in the midst of sequel fatigue. That's an awful lot of negativity to pin on just "It's because piracy!".

Also, I didn't realize The Layover was VOD. So that probably won't be getting much of a release.

Last edited by RichC2; 08-28-17 at 07:25 PM.
Old 09-03-17, 11:45 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 1 The Hitman's Bodyguard LG/S $10,250,000 -0.1% 3,370 -7 $3,042 $54,944,214 $30 3
2 2 Annabelle: Creation WB (NL) $7,300,000 -5.0% 3,358 -207 $2,174 $88,975,598 $15 4
3 4 Wind River Wein. $5,863,074 +27.4% 2,602 +507 $2,253 $18,285,511 $11 5
4 3 Leap! Wein. $4,886,923 +3.3% 2,705 +130 $1,807 $11,381,726 - 2
5 5 Logan Lucky BST $4,421,125 +4.2% 2,975 -56 $1,486 $21,451,612 $29 3
6 6 Dunkirk WB $4,125,000 +4.5% 2,752 -22 $1,499 $178,754,545 $100 7
7 7 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony $3,650,000 +29.4% 2,036 -86 $1,793 $324,051,546 $175 9
8 10 The Emoji Movie Sony $2,450,000 -2.3% 2,108 -266 $1,162 $80,326,714 $50 6
9 13 Despicable Me 3 Uni. $2,360,175 +34.8% 2,132 +16 $1,107 $257,895,405 $80 10
10 11 Girls Trip Uni. $2,322,430 -1.7% 1,607 -170 $1,445 $111,581,945 $19 7
11 12 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature ORF $2,014,972 -13.0% 2,651 -439 $760 $25,855,476 $40 4
12 15 Wonder Woman WB $1,920,000 +14.6% 1,808 -402 $1,062 $408,939,021 $149 14
13 N Close Encounters Of The Third Kind (40th Anniversary) Sony $1,800,000 - 901 - $1,998 $1,800,000 - 1
14 8 Birth of the Dragon BH Tilt $1,755,370 -35.0% 1,633 +15 $1,075 $5,413,090 - 2
15 30 Cars 3 BV $1,709,000 +914.6% 2,445 +2,231 $699 $150,846,869 - 12
Old 09-08-17, 10:01 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Stephen King’s ‘It’ Beats ‘Deadpool’ With Whopping $13.5M In Record-Setting Previews; $90M+ 3-Day Possible

The strength of the Stephen King brand just proved itself as the R-rated It‘s Thursday showings delightfully horrified crowds, grabbing hold of $13.5M in previews that began at 7 PM. That means it nabbed the largest horror pre-show gross ever, the largest R-rated preview as well as the largest Sept. preview and the biggest ever for a movie based on a a Stephen King book. And no surprise as it was in 3,500 theaters which is basically a full release. It could run past $90M, and the box office that has been limping along is now, as expected supercharging September as it will, indeed, continue to break records.
http://deadline.com/2017/09/stephen-...ce-1202163667/
Old 09-08-17, 10:39 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

nice!
Old 09-08-17, 03:38 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I would love to see "It" crack $100mm for the weekend simply because horror could use a major milestone like that. Such as it is, looks like we'll still get the biggest OW ever. Great to see the genre thriving this year.
Old 09-08-17, 03:51 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

THR: Weekend Box Office: 'It' Scaring Up Giant $40 Million-Plus Opening Day

There is nothing clownish about the first box-office returns for It, which, according to preliminary box office estimates, is scaring up a whopping $40 million or more for the day, including its record-shattering $13.5 million in Thursday night previews.

That puts It on track to flirt with a three-day take of $80-85 million, well above even the most optimistic pre-release predictions.

The preview grosses themselves were the biggest ever for an R-rated title (besting Deadpool at $12.7 million) as well as for a horror pic and for a September release.
Old 09-08-17, 03:53 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by islandclaws
I would love to see "It" crack $100mm for the weekend simply because horror could use a major milestone like that. Such as it is, looks like we'll still get the biggest OW ever. Great to see the genre thriving this year.
Right now they're saying $80-85M which seems low. However, I have read Hurricane Irma could take away between 3-5%.
Old 09-09-17, 02:50 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

IT made 50+ mill in one day. Over a 100 mill seems like a lock. Never know about the bite NFL could take though.
Old 09-09-17, 02:53 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

IT is looking like it will be top three all time for R Rated Horror. I bet WB is wishing they would have gone the four film route lol.
Old 09-09-17, 03:49 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Between Annabelle: Creation, Dunkirk (has made $475M WW), Wonder Woman and now It, Warner is having a nice year.
Old 09-09-17, 04:08 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TheMovieman
Right now they're saying $80-85M which seems low. However, I have read Hurricane Irma could take away between 3-5%.
Box Office Prophets is estimating $105 for the whole weekend. Amazing opening weekend for a September release and for a horror movie.
Old 09-09-17, 04:55 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Defiant1
Box Office Prophets is estimating $105 for the whole weekend. Amazing opening weekend for a September release and for a horror movie.
Truly incredible no matter the month. Nice return on the $35M budget.
Old 09-10-17, 06:28 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Estimates have moved up to $123m+ for the weekend. Insane. It probably would have beat Deadpool if weather wasn't so shitty. It technically pulled more Saturday than Friday (due to the $13m in previews) which is almost unheard of for R rated horror.

Last edited by RichC2; 09-10-17 at 06:50 AM.
Old 09-10-17, 07:39 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I always thought this could do over $100mil. Glad it did well.
Old 09-10-17, 10:38 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N It WB (NL) $117,150,000 - 4,103 - $28,552 $117,150,000 $35 1
2 N Home Again ORF $9,028,222 - 2,940 - $3,071 $9,028,222 - 1
3 1 The Hitman's Bodyguard LG/S $4,850,000 -54.0% 3,322 -48 $1,460 $64,897,007 $30 4
4 2 Annabelle: Creation WB (NL) $4,000,000 -46.7% 3,003 -355 $1,332 $96,267,010 $15 5
5 3 Wind River Wein. $3,210,200 -48.5% 2,890 +288 $1,111 $25,002,192 $11 6
6 4 Leap! Wein. $2,500,100 -48.4% 2,691 -14 $929 $15,874,536 - 3
7 7 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony $2,015,000 -45.3% 1,657 -379 $1,216 $327,702,794 $175 10
8 6 Dunkirk WB $1,950,000 -55.4% 2,110 -642 $924 $183,110,279 $100 8
9 5 Logan Lucky BST $1,826,425 -58.6% 2,167 -808 $843 $25,228,666 $29 4
10 9 The Emoji Movie Sony $1,060,000 -57.0% 1,450 -658 $731 $82,516,858 $50 7
Old 09-10-17, 10:38 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Almost guarantee you the studio (where that # comes from) is lowballing.
Old 09-10-17, 01:44 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

And that's with Irma shutting down Florida
Old 09-10-17, 02:01 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Rival studios have this hitting $120-125mm OW, so WB is definitely lowballing.

Not that it matters much but it would've been great to see this steal the R-rated OW record away from "Deadpool". As it stands, this is HUGE for horror.

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