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The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Old 02-11-18, 10:41 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Weekend Box Office (Sunday Estimates) for the weekend of 2/9/18 - 2/11/18

<<Last Weekend <Last YearView Index: By Year | By Weekend 
TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N Fifty Shades Freed Uni. $38,806,000 - 3,768 - $10,299 $38,806,000 $55 1
2 N Peter Rabbit Sony $25,000,000 - 3,725 - $6,711 $25,000,000 $50 1
3 N The 15:17 to Paris WB $12,600,000 - 3,042 - $4,142 $12,600,000 $30 1
4 1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $9,825,000 -10.1% 3,136 -216 $3,133 $365,656,871 $90 8
5 4 The Greatest Showman Fox $6,400,000 -16.8% 2,373 -215 $2,697 $146,535,870 $84 8
6 2 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox $6,000,000 -42.7% 2,923 -870 $2,053 $49,018,129 $62 3
7 3 Winchester LGF $5,050,000 -45.7% 2,480 - $2,036 $17,177,358 - 2
8 5 The Post Fox $3,500,000 -32.9% 1,865 -597 $1,877 $72,836,520 $50 8
9 9 The Shape of Water FoxS $3,000,000 -32.6% 1,780 -561 $1,685 $49,765,691 - 11
10 8 Den of Thieves STX $2,870,000 -36.9% 1,468 -644 $1,955 $40,951,323 - 4
11 7 12 Strong WB $2,705,000 -42.5% 1,901 -1,017 $1,423 $41,975,179 - 4
12 6 Hostiles ENTMP $2,659,000 -47.9% 2,214 -720 $1,201 $25,856,468 - 8
13 11 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FoxS $2,200,000 -27.0% 1,273 -453 $1,728 $45,344,806 - 14
14 14 Darkest Hour Focus $1,590,000 -32.7% 1,045 -441 $1,522 $51,471,092 - 12
15 12 I, Tonya Neon $1,552,643 -37.1% 1,088 -362 $1,427 $25,229,668 - 10
16 16 Forever My Girl RAtt. $1,264,600 -44.8% 1,088 -339 $1,162 $14,603,919 $3.5 4
17 15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $1,258,000 -46.2% 830 -637 $1,516 $616,694,279 - 9
18 10 Paddington 2 WB $1,210,000 -63.1% 1,429 -959 $847 $38,442,364 - 5
19 17 Phantom Thread Focus $1,190,000 -44.1% 558 -628 $2,133 $16,390,094 - 7
20 N La Boda de Valentina PNT $1,125,000 - 331 - $3,399 $1,125,000 - 1
21 21 Lady Bird A24 $934,650 -29.0% 651 -458 $1,436 $45,237,506 - 15
22 18 Coco BV $806,000 -53.4% 833 -803 $968 $206,092,341 - 12


The Greatest Showman and Jumanji continue to crush it, 50 Shades Freed is doing well for a terrible threequel to a series with a terrible sequel and original.

Paris did better than I anticipated. And imho, The Post is doing very well. For those curious, Peter Rabbit opened $12m lower than Hop.

Last edited by RichC2; 02-11-18 at 10:47 AM.
Old 02-18-18, 08:06 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Estimates for 2/16/18 - 2/18/18 (3 Day Estimates from Sunday)

<<Last Weekend <Last YearView Index: By Year | By Weekend 
TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N Black Panther BV $192,023,000 - 4,020 - $47,767 $192,023,000 - 1
2 2 Peter Rabbit Sony $17,250,000 -31.0% 3,725 - $4,631 $48,222,542 $50 2
3 1 Fifty Shades Freed Uni. $16,940,000 -56.1% 3,768 - $4,496 $76,134,455 $55 2
4 4 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $7,945,000 -20.7% 2,800 -336 $2,838 $377,623,565 $90 9
5 3 The 15:17 to Paris WB $7,685,000 -38.8% 3,042 - $2,526 $25,432,717 $30 2
6 5 The Greatest Showman Fox $5,100,000 -20.8% 1,936 -437 $2,634 $154,478,356 $84 9
7 N Early Man LGF $3,150,000 - 2,494 - $1,263 $3,150,000 - 1
8 6 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox $2,525,000 -59.4% 1,892 -1,031 $1,335 $54,005,126 $62 4
9 7 Winchester LGF $2,230,000 -57.2% 1,479 -1,001 $1,508 $21,860,179 - 3
10 N Samson PFR $1,972,000 - 1,249 - $1,579 $1,972,000 - 1
11 8 The Post Fox $1,965,000 -45.9% 1,050 -815 $1,871 $76,574,372 $50 9
12 9 The Shape of Water FoxS $1,665,000 -47.6% 957 -823 $1,740 $53,243,714 - 12
13 13 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FoxS $1,500,000 -34.8% 780 -493 $1,923 $47,969,506 - 15
14 12 12 Strong WB $963,000 -64.9% 815 -1,086 $1,182 $44,111,206 - 5
15 11 Hostiles ENTMP $904,000 -68.0% 767 -1,447 $1,179 $28,380,825 - 9
16 15 Darkest Hour Focus $895,000 -44.2% 602 -443 $1,487 $53,135,692 - 13
17 14 I, Tonya Neon $877,347 -47.5% 502 -586 $1,748 $26,981,466 - 11
18 23 Coco BV $711,000 -19.8% 385 -448 $1,847 $207,191,667 - 13
19 19 Phantom Thread Focus $680,000 -43.6% 355 -203 $1,915 $17,675,624 - 8
20 N Detective Chinatown 2 WB $677,000 - 115 - $5,887 $677,000 - 1
21 16 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $609,000 -56.4% 351 -479 $1,735 $618,031,777 - 10
22 22 Lady Bird A24 $605,728 -32.9% 407 -244 $1,488 $46,251,893 - 16
Old 02-19-18, 04:35 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I'm intrigued. What's DETECTIVE CHINATOWN 2?
Old 02-19-18, 07:13 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Ash Ketchum
I'm intrigued. What's DETECTIVE CHINATOWN 2?


Black Panther corrected up to $202m - $203m for the 3 day
Old 02-19-18, 09:22 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Greatest Showman is up to 4th highest grossing musical domestically, passing Les Mis, La La Land, Mamma Mia. Good stuff.
Old 02-19-18, 12:49 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Jumanji is $24 million away from surpassing Spiderman as the biggest hit for Sony. That is absolutely fucking crazy.
Old 02-19-18, 01:42 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2

Thanks. That looks interesting. And it's playing in New York. I wonder where they filmed it. It's set in NYC, but nothing I saw in the trailer looked like New York's Chinatown (which I spent last Thursday walking around).
Old 02-19-18, 01:44 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

What's the matter with Box Office Guru? They haven't updated their site since last Thursday. This was a monumental history-making boxoffice weekend and they dropped the ball.
Old 02-19-18, 02:21 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

4-Day Weekend Estimates:

<<Last Weekend <Last YearView Index: By Year | By Weekend 
TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count / ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
1 N Black Panther BV $235,000,000 - 4,020 - $58,458 $235,000,000 - 1
2 2 Peter Rabbit Sony $23,100,000 -7.6% 3,725 - $6,201 $54,072,542 $50 2
3 1 Fifty Shades Freed Uni. $19,435,000 -49.6% 3,768 - $5,158 $78,626,455 $55 2
4 4 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $10,000,000 -0.2% 2,800 -336 $3,571 $379,678,565 $90 9
5 3 The 15:17 to Paris WB $9,140,000 -27.2% 3,042 - $3,005 $26,887,717 $30 2
6 5 The Greatest Showman Fox $6,250,000 -3.0% 1,936 -437 $3,228 $155,628,356 $84 9
7 N Early Man LGF $4,200,000 - 2,494 - $1,684 $4,200,000 - 1
8 6 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox $3,165,000 -49.1% 1,892 -1,031 $1,673 $54,645,126 $62 4
9 7 Winchester LGF $2,615,000 -49.8% 1,479 -1,001 $1,768 $22,245,179 - 3
10 8 The Post Fox $2,460,000 -32.3% 1,050 -815 $2,343 $77,069,372 $50 9
11 N Samson PFR $2,273,569 - 1,249 - $1,820 $2,273,569 - 1
12 9 The Shape of Water FoxS $2,110,000 -33.6% 957 -823 $2,205 $53,688,714 - 12
13 13 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FoxS $1,900,000 -17.5% 780 -493 $2,436 $48,369,506 - 15
14 11 Hostiles ENTMP $1,202,000 -57.4% 767 -1,447 $1,567 $28,678,825 - 9
15 15 Darkest Hour Focus $1,145,000 -28.7% 602 -443 $1,902 $53,386,692 - 13
16 12 12 Strong WB $1,133,000 -58.7% 815 -1,086 $1,390 $44,281,206 - 5
17 14 I, Tonya Neon $1,123,545 -32.8% 502 -586 $2,238 $27,227,664 - 11
18 10 Den of Thieves STX $1,100,000 -63.3% 730 -738 $1,507 $43,611,930 - 5
19 23 Coco BV $962,000 +8.5% 385 -448 $2,499 $207,442,667 - 13
20 19 Phantom Thread Focus $910,000 -24.5% 355 -203 $2,563 $17,908,624 - 8
21 N Detective Chinatown 2 WB $862,000 - 115 - $7,496 $862,000 - 1
22 16 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $807,000 -42.3% 351 -479 $2,299 $618,229,777 - 10


and to think Jumanji had a $36.2m opening weekend. ($55m w/ Monday added in (Xmas))
Old 02-19-18, 04:20 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Ash Ketchum
What's the matter with Box Office Guru? They haven't updated their site since last Thursday. This was a monumental history-making boxoffice weekend and they dropped the ball.
Don't worry. 50 Shades is doing fine.
Old 02-19-18, 04:54 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by Ash Ketchum
What's the matter with Box Office Guru? They haven't updated their site since last Thursday. This was a monumental history-making boxoffice weekend and they dropped the ball.
People use that site? Looks like a 90s high schooler set it up.
Old 02-20-18, 01:12 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

With Black Panther breaking $200 million for the 3-Day, it'll be curious if it can break $600 million domestic like every single other movie that had that kind of opening weekend. I feel like it'll drop more and won't have the legs, but it'll be interesting to see what happens.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdow...ndshowdown.htm
Old 02-20-18, 11:04 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by dex14
People use that site? Looks like a 90s high schooler set it up.
I stopped looking at it a long time ago. Not sure if it's changed but was pretty useless (to me).
Old 02-20-18, 11:06 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by fumanstan
With Black Panther breaking $200 million for the 3-Day, it'll be curious if it can break $600 million domestic liken every single other movie that had that kind of opening weekend. I feel like it'll drop more and won't have the legs, but it'll be interesting to see what happens.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdow...ndshowdown.htm
Anything opening over the next few weeks that could derail it? I donít know of anything, but I havenít checked.
Old 02-20-18, 11:08 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by E Unit
Anything opening over the next few weeks that could derail it? I don’t know of anything, but I haven’t checked.
Nope. There is no way Annihilation or Game Night de-thrown it this week. And I don't see Red Sparrow or Death Wish making much money.
Old 02-20-18, 11:10 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Yeah BP will have free rein on the box office for a good stretch of time.
Old 02-20-18, 10:20 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Ha, let’s see if it can last until Infinity War hits theaters in May.
Old 02-20-18, 10:47 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

And just like that Box Office Mojo has an article about it.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4372&p=.htm

Looking ahead, it's impossible to determine just how high Black Panther's domestic total will climb after an opening of this size. Deadpool delivered a 2.74x multiplier after opening over the same weekend in 2016, which when applied to Black Panther's opening, translates to a domestic run over $550 million. Looking at the multipliers for the four other films that opened over $200 million — The Force Awakens, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jurassic World and The Avengers — they range from Force Awakens' stellar 3.78x to a 2.81x multiplier for The Last Jedi, which is in the tail end of its domestic run. While it would be unreasonable to expect Black Panther to perform on the scale of Force Awakens, the three other multipliers suggest a domestic run from $567-631 million.

Things do get a little less optimistic when you consider the 2.4x multiplier for Avengers: Age of Ultron and 2.28x multiplier for Captain America: Civil War, which would put Black Panther's domestic run anywhere from $460-485 million.

Overall, it feels relatively safe to expect a domestic run over $550 million, which would make Black Panther the seventh largest domestic performance of all-time and the second largest in the MCU, behind only The Avengers ($623.3m). That said, should it follow The Avengers and delivers a 3x multiplier we're looking at a $605M+ run at the domestic box office, while a performance closer to Jurassic World's run pushes that total over $630 million.
Old 02-21-18, 08:21 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Some of the gaps in these comparisons are crazy. I don't see anything touching these records anytime soon.

LARGEST FEBRUARY OPENING WEEKEND - $202,003,951
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDER: Deadpool ($132,434,639)
LARGEST WINTER SEASON OPENING WEEKEND - $202,003,951
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDER: Deadpool ($132,434,639)
LARGEST PRESIDENT'S DAY WEEKEND OPENING - $242,155,680
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDER: Deadpool ($152,193,853)
LARGEST MONDAY - $40,151,729
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDER: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($40,109,742)
LARGEST THURSDAY PREVIEW GROSS IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY - $25.2 million
PREVIOUS RECORD HOLDER: Deadpool ($12.7 million)
Old 02-21-18, 11:22 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Deadline reports that it also now holds a pre-summer Tuesday record of 21 million (I threw my money into the Tuesday pot) beating Disney's live action Beauty and the Beast. Also, even if Box Office Guru's low-end prediction of $460-485 million is accurate, that is still an impressive number and with its global numbers should easily have BP clearing 900 million world wide, maybe a hair over 1 billion (still easier said than done).

Jumanji cleared 900 million but Jumanji had legs like few other films in recent memory, and I sincerely hope Black Panther has the same stamina at the box office. It felt like a film I could see folks going to see a second or third time in theaters (I do not always get that vibe regarding Marvel or DCEU films).
Old 02-21-18, 11:36 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I kind of feel bad for Annihilation and Game Night, both are getting strong reviews and would likely do better if they weren't in the shadow of a behemoth.
Old 02-21-18, 12:21 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2
I kind of feel bad for Annihilation and Game Night, both are getting strong reviews and would likely do better if they weren't in the shadow of a behemoth.
It could be some good counter programming and folks who have no desire to see BP or have seen it for the 20th time already might want to try a new flavor at the box office this weekend.

To be fair you are probably right about their box office chances because other than a mild interest in seeing Annihilation in theaters I am more likely to wait until Game Night and Annihilation hit cable. No way in heck was I going to wait 6 months for BP to hit Netlix/cable.
Old 02-22-18, 07:27 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

I went to a 42nd Street multiplex yesterday to see a Chinese movie at the 1:50PM show and there was a long line, presumably to see BLACK PANTHER. The line moved so slowly I knew that there was no way in hell I'd get to the theater before the movie actually started (there are fewer trailers before Chinese movies) and it was a movie, DETECTIVE CHINATOWN 2, that was a sequel to a movie I hadn't seen and I knew I needed to see it from the beginning in order not to miss crucial info. So after a couple of minutes of not seeing the line move at all, I bailed. I toyed with going to another theater and trying to see a different movie, but I wound up in Bryant Park enjoying the unbelievably warm day (78 degrees!).

So in this case at least, the success of BLACK PANTHER directly impacted a much smaller movie by reducing its box office return.
Old 02-22-18, 07:45 AM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Can't remember the last time I was in a line to buy a ticket. All the multiplexes I frequent have automated ticket kiosks. I'm also one of those that shows up real early to a movie.
Old 02-22-18, 02:24 PM
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Re: The Official Box Office Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by TomOpus
Can't remember the last time I was in a line to buy a ticket. All the multiplexes I frequent have automated ticket kiosks. I'm also one of those that shows up real early to a movie.
I didn't even think of that. I've never used those anyway, so I'm not sure I would have mastered it and got my ticket and got up to the top floor of the multiplex in time before the movie started anyway. It's just that normally when I go to the movies (usually in the late morning), there's no line, so it's easier--and cheaper--to just go and get the ticket from the cashier. And I usually get there early also, but yesterday I had a full 2-1/2 hours of errands in Manhattan preceding the movie's start time and the Times Square crowds were thicker than usual thanks to the warm weather, so I got to the theater later than I'd planned but still with enough time to make the showing if there were no line. Still, next time I encounter a long line, I should actually try the automated machines. Thanks.

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