There looks to be potentially many more hits this Summer vs last year, which definitely felt a little lackluster compared to recent years. The obvious #1 choice this year is probably Transformers, but I think the foul stench from part 2 is still lingering and will cause a lot of people to wait for video. So I'm going to go with Super 8 as the Summer's top film. I think this will get the older crowds to the theaters and will do huge repeat business. And it's not a sequel or a comic book film, which might help it appeal to a bigger audience.

1. Super 8 - $350 mil
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $335 mil
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $325 mil
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 - $310 mil
-I think the original is the only film to pass $300 mil, but 3D pricing and this being the last one will push it over that mark.
5. Captain America - $275 mil
6. Cars 2 - $250 mil
7. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $250 mil
8. Green Lantern - $225 mil
9. The Hangover 2 - $210 mil
10. Cowboys and Aliens - $200 mil
11. X-Men: First Class - $175 mil
12. Thor - $150 mil
13. The Smurfs - $150 mil
14. Rise of the Apes - $145 mil
15. Zookeeper - $145 mil
16. Crazy, Stupid, Love - $125 mil

I'm sure I'll be way off on some of these. I think Green Lantern could do big business or it could disappoint. I'm probably underestimating Captain America too. Thor is another one that could go either way.

Lots of fun popcorn summer movies this year - Really looking forward to cooling down in the movie theater this year.

Super 8 - $42m OW/$178m - This is my most anticipated film of the year, but I'm not going to count on America to push this one past $200m tops.

TF: Dark of the Moon - $132m OW/$386m - People will actually spend the extra $ to see this in 3D, and it'll do HUGE numbers.

PotC 4 - $96m OW/$263m - This is the film to determine whether everyone is tired of Sparrow's one-note antics or not, I'm going to say not, but they won't give it the love the last couple films got (monetarily speaking).

HP 7, Pt. 2 - $108m OW/$323m - The 3D (this one's in 3D, right?) will propel this one higher than most of the entries, and a few stragglers might check it out since it's the last one and all, but I'd count on this one doing similar business to the rest.

Hangover II - $62m OW/$186m - I see this one opening big, but I don't think it'll have the legs the first did. Unless it's remarkably more funny and good WOM keeps it going.

Cowboys & Aliens - $42m OW/$168m - Westerns aren't typically a big hit, but the sci-fi angle might draw in more people. I'd expect solid numbers, but nothing amazing.

Thor - $43m OW/$136m - I suspect this won't be the hit Marvel wants it to be.

Green Lantern - $56m OW/$176m - I don't see this topping $200m, but Reynolds seems likeable enough to get this above $150m.

Capt. America - $51m OW/$145m - A period piece superhero movie could really go either way. Trailer looks much better than Thor.

Kung-Fu Panda 2 - $75m OW/$293m - This'll be big, methinks.

Cars 2 - $66m OW/$245m - Who cares what the box office is, get that merchandise ready!

X-Men: FC - $42m OW/$136m - Looks very good, but I don't know how many people are interested in a Wolverine-less X-Men movie.

Smurfs - $36m OW/$143m - This couldn't look worse, but kids are dumb and parents will go for the nostalgia. I hope it does less.

Rise of the Apes - $32m OW/$115m - I don't see this doing big #s, especially after the bad taste Burton's version left in viewer's mouths.

*******************************************************

I could see something like Super 8 doing big #s if people are feeling superhero fatigue thanks to the glut of them this summer. With so many coming out, it'll be interesting to see which ones hit and miss. Or if none of them truly breaks out.

Yeah, most of the movie-going public have been eagerly awaiting a comic-hero flick since Iron Man 2.
At least one of these movies should definetly be in the top 3 this summer.

I think it's very difficult to predict numbers for Super 8 since we really have no clue what it's about.

Most of the other movies on the list are either sequels or super hero movies and everybody knows what your'e going to get with those movies so it's easier to predict box office.

Something like Super 8 is hard to predict. It's as secretive as Cloverfield was and that didn't do huge numbers, but that was kind of a niche movie. At the same time, the trailers have that "huge box office" feel to them, but I just think it's hard to predict since we know little to nothing about what the movies is actually about other than aliens are involved in some way.

Ah, summertime... where the living is easy.

My guesses. I'm not going to attempt predictions. Predictions are wrong. Guesses are just that.

THOR: $225M
CAPTAIN AMERICA: $190M (but watch for the howling on these...)
GREEN LANTERN: $130M (this year's SUPERMAN RETURNS)
POTC4: $250M (but seen as a failure)
SUPER 8: $200M
HANGOVER 2: $210M (most common remark: "Not as good as the first" This year's SHREK 2)
COWBOYS AND ALIENS: $150M (and glad to get it)
TF3: $300M (better than TF2, but so was Hosni Mubarak)
Harry Potter and the Emo Cash Grab: $290M (good riddance)
CARS 2: $350M (the most reviled Pixar film, but still crazy popular)
X-MEN: $130M
Smurfs: F--- you

Pirates #1
Transformers #2
Harry Potter #3

All 3 above $300 million.

APRIL 29TH
FAST FIVE: $150 - 175 million.
[I actually have a suspicion this may do more, but the franchise is known to have large opening weekends, and this will plummet in its second weekend due to...]

MAY 6TH
THOR: $150 - 175 million.
[Large opening weekend, strong second weekend (due to no competition) and drops like a rock on May 20th.]

MAY 13TH
BRIDESMAIDS: $60 - 75 million.
PRIEST: $40 - 60 million.
[Bridesmaids could actually do more, but Priest is DOA.]

MAY 20TH
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES: $300 million plus.
[Guaranteed $300 million, but it could do more depending if it doesn't suck like the last two outings.]

MAY 27TH
THE HANGOVER: PART II: $275 - 300 million.
KUNG FU PANDA 2: $190 - $215 million.
[The Hangover: Part II will do just as much as the original, but if Phillips can outdo himself, this may be that rare R-rated film that can top $300 million. Kung Fu Panda 2? DreamWorks hasn't had success with a sequel outside of the Shrek franchise. Madagascar 2 failed to make as much as the original.]

JUNE 3RD
X-MEN: FIRST CLASS: $135 - 150 million.
[Okay, I feel like I may be overestimating this, but the first film pulled in $160 million domestically a decade ago... and Wolverine, which opened to even worse reviews than X3, still managed to pull in $180 million.]

JUNE 10TH
SUPER 8: $300 million plus.
[This is the summer's wildcard. If the film is as amazing as the twenty minutes Paramount screened this past week, WOM is going to be phenomenal. This is a film that could successfully market itself to all four quadrants.]

JUNE 17TH
GREEN LANTERN: $175 - 200 million.
MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS: $100 million plus.
[Bad Teacher could be a sleeper hit this weekend, but Mr. Popper's Penguins is a family film with Jim Carrey so it's guaranteed $100 million. However, Green Lantern could go many ways. It will have a large opening weekend, but if it sucks, it will fucking drop.]

JUNE 24TH
CARS 2: $250 - 275 million.
[Pixar's first attempt at a cash grab, but this could do more depending on the film's quality. I don't see it pulling in the numbers as the last few Pixar outings that have stuck the right emotional chords with the audience.]

JULY 4TH
TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE MOON: $350 million plus.
[This movie will print money if it's of higher quality than the last sequel. However, that's not saying much and Bay could still fuck this up. There's other movies coming out this weekend (like Larry Crowe with Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts), but nobody will give a shit.]

JULY 8TH
ZOOKEEPER: $100 million plus.
[I don't understand why America loves Kevin James, but they do and this will make money. I hope Horrible Bosses is good, but if it sucks, it'll be out of theaters shortly after entering.]

JULY 15TH
HARRY POTTER 7: PART 2: $300 million plus.
[This is the final film, but the better question will be is can it top the first film's domestic gross of $317 million?]

JULY 22ND
CAPTAIN AMERICA: $200 - 225 million.
[The American public may not warm up to Thor, but I see this being a crowd pleaser. I also will bet money right now that Friends with Benefits makes more money than No Strings Attached.]

JULY 29TH
COWBOYS AND ALIENS: $200 million plus.
[I could see this surprising people.]

NOBODY GIVES A SHIT ABOUT AUGUST THIS YEAR
[The Change-Up, 30 Minutes or Less and Fright Night will be the three to look at. Final Destination 5 is guaranteed $60 million plus. The kids who grew up with the Spy Kids franchise are no longer kids, so Spy Kids 4 could be a box office disaster.]

Are you fucking retarded?

SHREK: $267 million domestically, $217 million internationally.
SHREK 2: $441 million domestically, $479 million internationally.

Hell, I'll prove you're fucking retarded two more times.

SHREK THE THIRD: $323 million domestically, $476 million internationally.
SHREK FOREVER AFTER: $240 million domestically, $510 (!) million internationally.

He's talking about quality, not how much it made

Even if that's the case, Shrek 2 was reviewed VERY favorably. Rotten Tomatoes has the percentage equal to the first movie at 89%.

For some reason the hate for Shrek on DVDTalk is more out of line with the general public's pulse then normal

Better yet, what movies do you guys think will bomb?

Wow, what a depressing list of movies. How many titles on there aren't sequels, or at least based on an established franchise of some kind? We've come to the point where the movies are produced to help sell the toys, instead of the other way around.

Anyway, back on topic...I predict that Captain America will be huge, Green Lantern will bomb, and Thor will be somewhere in the middle. I predict that Cowboys & Aliens will be an epic disaster on a Wild Wild West scale. I predict that The Smurfs will either do more than $150 million in box office receipts or will be blue, but possibly both. I predict that Pirates of the Caribbean will defy expectations by being a small-scale production about ninjas in a Mediterranean olive grove, shocking audiences worldwide, but earning over $300 million anyway. I predict that Harry Potter will face Voldemort, and since I've read the book, I predict that I will be able to predict how it turns out before seeing the movie. I predict that the good guys will defeat the bad guys while learning a valuable lesson in all of these movies. I predict that critics will be surprised by both the subtle humor and deep emotion on display in Transformers: Dark of the Moon, and will applaud its artistic value as a positive contribution to humanity as a whole. Ok, not really. I predict that none of this will matter anyway, because next summer the sequels will show them how it's really done.

This post obviously deserves a song
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A sequel-heavy summer isn't anything new at all. The question is if the filmmakers (Regarding POTC & Transformers) listened to the viewers/critics of the last films and did anything much different to the films this time around. But I do agree with you slightly on Green Lantern. Joe6pack's wife will probably have to remind Joe6pack that Green Lantern is a different person (And film) than Green Hornet.

Rise of the Apes was moved to August 5th, so it should be the highest grossing that month.

When was the last time you- or anyone you know- stuck SHREK 2 in the DVD player?

It's not bad, per se, it's just... not as good as the first.

I don't know as I'm not a pedophile and I don't go around watching what my friend's children put in their DVD players.

I also do know that Rise of the Apes is coming out in August, but I think it'll be a box office bomb. When was the last time Fox had a successful summer tentpole picture? Their current advertising for their summer block, as of now, sucks and is practically non-existent.

No way Super 8 will topple all of those established franchises, sorry.

I like westerns, including western hybrids, so I'm down for COWBOYS VS. ALIENS, esp. with a solid pair of leading men like Ford and Craig.

Of the others, I hate to admit it, but, despite the mediocrity of TRANSFORMERS 2, I'll be in line for TF3 in 3-D because I like giant robots and would love to see them in 3-D.

But I'm really not interested in any of the others. I wish DC and Marvel would make their DTV animated superhero films longer and of higher quality and release those to theaters instead of making these overblown live-action effects extravaganzas. Part of the appeal of comic books to me as a kid was the fact that it was a guy in a room with a pen dipped in ink working to beat a deadline that created those masterpieces, not an army of technicians with computers and unlimited budgets. The creativity gets lost the bigger you go. But it hasn't been lost in the animated films like BATMAN GOTHAM KNIGHT and JUSTICE LEAGUE THE NEW FRONTIER, to name a couple.

T3 - 350
Pirates 4 - 300
HP - 290
Kung Fu Panda 2 - 285
Cars 2 - 250
Captain A - 225
Cowboys v Aliens - 215
Hangover 2 - 200
X-Men - 185
Super 8 - 175
Green Lantern - 165
Thor - 150

I'd like to see the comic book movies do better but unless they're really great I don't see them being as big this yr.

I'm sorry, but what a snarky and stupid comment. You don't have to be a kid to enjoy watching "kids" movies. Some of my favorite movies would be considered "kids" movies.

Dumbest Comment of 2011 - so far. Congratulations!

If Green Lantern is as rotten as the trailer suggests, it could be the biggest bomb of the entire summer imo

There is "speculation" that it's somehow worse.

Anecdotes:

1. There was an article about (let me look up her name...) Blake Lively and industry scuttlebutt mentioned GL was... not looked upon as an entity with potential.

2. Friends in low places that have seen early cuts have not been kind. Granted, there were six more months of post to go (from when they saw it), but none of them were hopeful.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $365 Million
Cars 2 - $330 Million
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $325 Million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Pt II - $310 Million
Pirates of the Caribbean - $295 Million
Captain America - $195 Million
Super 8 - $174 Million
Thor - $160 Million
Green Lantern - $145 Million
Fast Five - $132 Million
Smurfs - $121 Million
Cowboys and Aliens - $102 Million
Rise of the Apes - $80 Million
Spy Kids 4 (Assuming the film is ready...) - $75 Million
Mr Popper's Penguins - $65 Million
Conan the Barbarian - $63 Million
Final Destination 5 - $50 Million
Priest - $35 Million

This is all shot in the dark speculation of course... I've ranked some of what I consider the lower rung genre films, such as Cowboys and Aliens, Spy Kids 4 (Too long between films) and Rise of the Apes. I also believe the consumer backlash toward 3D pricing may be in full affect this summer on stuff like Preist, Conan (Not that Lionsgate's general track record will help) and the Smurfs.

fitprod

Any Jason Statham movies coming out this summer? Megan Fox?

Just askin'.