Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
06-09-11 | 11:39 PM
#101
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
Specifically, I was addressing the word of mouth reaction to the movie. The box office (U.S.) is below expectations, I think--and a large part of that was that fans elected not to see it in 3D apparently, which surprised a lot of people. The quality of the movie, I thought, was fine. I left the last two feeling fatigued; I left this one feeling entertained. But man, word of mouth has been just been merciless about this one. I mean, seriously, I have to go back to The Last Airbender to name a movie I've seen and heard bashed like On Stranger Tides (which, incidentally, is already up for pre-order on Amazon apparently).
06-09-11 | 11:57 PM
#102
DVD Talk Hero
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
The level of bashing Pirates 4 has been nowhere near as bad as Last Airbender.
At least, not online nor from the people I've spoken to. YMMV. I gave up on the series after I couldn't stay awake for all of 2.
At least, not online nor from the people I've spoken to. YMMV. I gave up on the series after I couldn't stay awake for all of 2.
07-29-11 | 12:13 PM
#103
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
Super 8 - $42m OW/$178m
TF: Dark of the Moon - $132m OW/$386m
PotC 4 - $96m OW/$263m
HP 7, Pt. 2 - $108m OW/$323m
Hangover II - $62m OW/$186m
Cowboys & Aliens - $42m OW/$168m
Thor - $43m OW/$136m
Green Lantern - $56m OW/$176m
Capt. America - $51m OW/$145m
Kung-Fu Panda 2 - $75m OW/$293m
Cars 2 - $66m OW/$245m
X-Men: FC - $42m OW/$136m
Smurfs - $36m OW/$143m
Rise of the Apes - $32m OW/$115m
Meh. Aside from being within $5m of a few current totals, I'd say the only one I closely predicted was XM:FC.
07-29-11 | 01:15 PM
#105
DVD Talk Hero
07-29-11 | 02:45 PM
#106
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
I still think the Wondercon GL trailer was fantastically cut and edited- and alluded to a rich, fresh, and entertaining sci-fi fantasy romp. I still haven't seen it, but after the last clips were released and the nature of some of the criticisms from people like Hokeyboy, who also originally didn't dismiss the the film from the early trailers, I lost all enthusiasm to see it.
Based on the second trailer and my desire to see superhero comic book adaptations expand beyond the typical, I was sure GL would be a hit. Turns out not only was this the film to pile on and hate- but it sounds like it actually deserved some of that premature animosity.
Based on the second trailer and my desire to see superhero comic book adaptations expand beyond the typical, I was sure GL would be a hit. Turns out not only was this the film to pile on and hate- but it sounds like it actually deserved some of that premature animosity.
07-29-11 | 03:00 PM
#107
DVD Talk Hero
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
Current Standings - Domestic (worldwide):
Transformers 3 - $331.9m ($936m)
Harry Potter 7b - $296.5m ($926.5m)
The Hangover Part II - $252.6m ($563m)
Pirates IV - $238m ($1.032b)
Fast Five - $209m ($603m)
Thor - $180m ($447m)
Cars 2 - $179m ($353m)
Bridesmaids - $164m ($235m)
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $161m ($603m)
Xmen First Class - $144m ($347m)
Super 8 - $124m ($181m) (this is an August release for most countries)
Green Lantern - $114m ($147m)
Transformers 3 - $331.9m ($936m)
Harry Potter 7b - $296.5m ($926.5m)
The Hangover Part II - $252.6m ($563m)
Pirates IV - $238m ($1.032b)
Fast Five - $209m ($603m)
Thor - $180m ($447m)
Cars 2 - $179m ($353m)
Bridesmaids - $164m ($235m)
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $161m ($603m)
Xmen First Class - $144m ($347m)
Super 8 - $124m ($181m) (this is an August release for most countries)
Green Lantern - $114m ($147m)
07-29-11 | 03:21 PM
#109
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
There was interest -- the film opened pretty strong, in the same basic range as the rest of the summer superhero crop. Once WOM got out there, though...
07-29-11 | 04:13 PM
#110
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
I can't believe GL has only done $36m overseas. I see it hasn't opened in Japan yet (are they even going to bother?), or some other markets, but even the figures from larger countries are dismal.
And they want to make a sequel?
And they want to make a sequel?
07-29-11 | 11:38 PM
#111
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
Current Standings - Domestic (worldwide):
Transformers 3 - $331.9m ($936m)
Harry Potter 7b - $296.5m ($926.5m)
The Hangover Part II - $252.6m ($563m)
Pirates IV - $238m ($1.032b)
Fast Five - $209m ($603m)
Thor - $180m ($447m)
Cars 2 - $179m ($353m)
Bridesmaids - $164m ($235m)
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $161m ($603m)
Xmen First Class - $144m ($347m)
Super 8 - $124m ($181m) (this is an August release for most countries)
Green Lantern - $114m ($147m)
Transformers 3 - $331.9m ($936m)
Harry Potter 7b - $296.5m ($926.5m)
The Hangover Part II - $252.6m ($563m)
Pirates IV - $238m ($1.032b)
Fast Five - $209m ($603m)
Thor - $180m ($447m)
Cars 2 - $179m ($353m)
Bridesmaids - $164m ($235m)
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $161m ($603m)
Xmen First Class - $144m ($347m)
Super 8 - $124m ($181m) (this is an August release for most countries)
Green Lantern - $114m ($147m)
"The Hangover Part II" making twice as much as "Bridesmaids" is pretty disgusting IMO. One is a lazy carbon copy of the original, with less laughs. The other is an original and one of the funniest movies I've seen in quite some time.
07-30-11 | 04:03 PM
#112
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Re: Summer 2011: Predict the Box Office
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $365 Million (Currently, $333 Million, over-estimated slightly)
Cars 2 - $330 Million (Currently $180 million, highly over-estimated)
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $325 Million (Currently $161 million, even worse over-estimate than Cars 2)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Pt II - $310 Million (Currently $303 million, under-estimated, should finish ahead of Transformers.)
Pirates of the Caribbean - $295 Million (Currently $238 million, won't even hit $250 million)
Captain America - $195 Million (May finish around $100 million during second weekend... Not chance at $195 million)
Super 8 - $174 Million ($124 million, guess I gave Speilberg/JJ Abrams too much credit.)
Thor - $160 Million (Currently $180 million, sold it short, I thought Cap would do better than Thor.)
Green Lantern - $145 Million ($114 million, ranked lowest of Super-hero stuff, not low enough.)
Fast Five - $132 Million (Major whiff... Did not see this hitting $200 million.)
Smurfs - $121 Million (After first weekend estimates probably has a chance at $100 million, but not my guess.)
Cowboys and Aliens - $102 Million (Probably in the same boat as Smurfs but it will be closer to my prediction)
Rise of the Apes - $80 Million
Spy Kids 4 (Assuming the film is ready...) - $75 Million
Mr Popper's Penguins - $65 Million ($64 million... Well I hit one pretty much dead on.)
Conan the Barbarian - $63 Million
Final Destination 5 - $50 Million
Priest - $35 Million ($29 million, tanked harder than I though, although on a $5 million difference)
Cars 2 - $330 Million (Currently $180 million, highly over-estimated)
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $325 Million (Currently $161 million, even worse over-estimate than Cars 2)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Pt II - $310 Million (Currently $303 million, under-estimated, should finish ahead of Transformers.)
Pirates of the Caribbean - $295 Million (Currently $238 million, won't even hit $250 million)
Captain America - $195 Million (May finish around $100 million during second weekend... Not chance at $195 million)
Super 8 - $174 Million ($124 million, guess I gave Speilberg/JJ Abrams too much credit.)
Thor - $160 Million (Currently $180 million, sold it short, I thought Cap would do better than Thor.)
Green Lantern - $145 Million ($114 million, ranked lowest of Super-hero stuff, not low enough.)
Fast Five - $132 Million (Major whiff... Did not see this hitting $200 million.)
Smurfs - $121 Million (After first weekend estimates probably has a chance at $100 million, but not my guess.)
Cowboys and Aliens - $102 Million (Probably in the same boat as Smurfs but it will be closer to my prediction)
Rise of the Apes - $80 Million
Spy Kids 4 (Assuming the film is ready...) - $75 Million
Mr Popper's Penguins - $65 Million ($64 million... Well I hit one pretty much dead on.)
Conan the Barbarian - $63 Million
Final Destination 5 - $50 Million
Priest - $35 Million ($29 million, tanked harder than I though, although on a $5 million difference)
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