With Fast Five opening this weekend, I guess we can say the Summer season has "officially" begun. Notable releases:

My predictions:

1. POTC: On Stranger Tides $410
2. Transformers 3 $390
3. Harry Potter $375
4. Cars 2 $255
5. X-Men: First Class $245
6. Kung Fu Panda 2 $235
7. Super 8 $210
8. The Hangover 2 $190
9. Fast Five $185
10. Captain America $180

IMO you're off. The last POTC barely sqeuaked past $300 million and the underwhelming Part 3 probably wore out most "fans" of the franchise. Transformers 3 is following the god-awful Transformers 2, which made a shit-ton of cash based on the goodwill of the first movie, but it was really, REALLY terrible. Kids and families will take it to around $300 million but not much more. No Harry Potter film has outgrossed the first domestically, even in unadjusted dollars. But this one, being the LAST, just might, but not at the $375million level. At most, $320m or so.

Cars 2 seems about right, but X-Men: FC lacks recognizable starpower. No Wolverine for the ladies and little kids, and the period setting might turn off some less discriminating viewers. Plus the franchise is starting to get played out I'm thinking $170m. I'm also thinking Kung Fu Panda 2 might outgross the original.

THOR will be this year's STAR TREK, around $260m or so. Strong (but not blockbuster) opening plus good WOM will keep it going. Captain America, that's a hard one to predict. I'm thinking $180 to $200m, about the same for GREEN LANTERN.

But really, we're all just flipping the proverbial bacon-trampoline, aren't we?

I think Thor will be a surprise, I think Green Lantern will tank (at the very least, < $100m us)

heavily doubt that....what's the lowest a "blockbuster summer movie has made" has made?

Michael Bay's The Island (7/22/05) made $35m in the us (which is all I was talking about) on a $126m budget, internationally it made a bit more. About $160m worldwide.

Final Fantasy:TSW (7/11/01) made $32m (us) on a $137m budget. $85m worldwide.

Wild Wild West (which is what Green Lantern most reminds me of, with less star power) made about $113m in the us.

Wanna bet a bag of vending machine Skittles on this one?

I think GL will pull an easy $180 to $200mill, at the very LEAST.

People are forgetting that these movies are showing in the summer, where much more money is flowing through the theaters. I'm pessimistic on GL, but I think $150 million would be a good showing, it all depends on whether it can open at $50 for its opening weekend.

A lot of that depends of how you define "blockbuster summer movie". Are we simply talking about big budget popcorn movies released in the summer?

Notorious flops like Battlefield Earth and Hudson Hawk were originally positioned and hyped as big summer movies, until bad buzz and reviews started pouring in.



And although I'm not sure if this counts as a 'blockbuster summer movie', but The Adventures of Pluto Nash was a summer release (albeit late summer: August 16, 2002), had a $100 million budget, and a star who had +$100 million grosses in 3 out of his previous 4 films (Eddie Murphy). Its gross: $4,420,080 domestic, $2,683,893 internationally, for a worldwide total of only $7,103,973.

This is the summer we see people tire of superhero movies. Thor will do well on word of mouth, X-Men will do alright, Green Lantern won't do well, and people will be tired by the time Captain America comes out (which is sandwiched between Harry Potter and Cowboys and Aliens).

Next summer The Dark Knight Rises will culminate the superhero/comic genre on a positive note while the new Spider-Man will probably kill it.

I hope you're right because I hate comic book movies but I'm curious what makes you think THIS is the year it all ends. I'm sure it'll end at some point but why now? For the most part, over the past few years, if you put the words comic and book together when it comes to marketing a movie you've pretty much been guaranteed $150 million. What's so special about this year that the public will suddenly stop going to see comic book movies?

yes and no w/ the comic book thing....just depends on the comic it's based on and how...it looks. Pretty much like you said though...kind of a guarantee.

I'm bullish on Green Lantern, and am baffled by all the hate and derision thrown it's way since the first trailer was released (which seemed to me to already contain all the kernels of what showed up in the second more popular trailer).
I do think that with both GL and X-men, that there is a danger of the trailers having shown off the big set pieces already, so some disappointment may be there in the theater. For example, I can't believe that the GL corps will figure into the films climax which it looks to me will take place on Earth. If I'm wrong, great. But if they show up in the middle section for Hal's orientation, and then are AWOL for the big finish, that might lead to a lot of "what this should have been" comments and criticisms.

I don't get the feeling the same thing would impact X-men nearly as much, because that films strengths seem to be in the dramatic content. They have been from the very first trailer released in February and that hasn't changed with any of the subsequent ones.
The film may lack the big set pieces and 'splosions to make it a summer blockbuster, but if they have nailed the dramatic content (like it looks like they have) this will be a good seller for Fox on DVD/Bd- which is exactly what happened to the first X-Men movie.

As far as audience burn-out, it's more likely to happen next year because both (TDKR and Avengers) will be heavily hyped. Not just officially by the studios, but by the fans. Unmodulated hype is what is going to lead to fatigue- especially when neither film is proven to be the second coming.
In fact, I fully expect TDKR to be seen as a massive disappointment. And that isn't because I expect the quality or tone to be drastically different from TDK- just the opposite. What will be different is the outside circumstances and mystique that attended that film and helped conflate it into something far greater than the sum of it's parts in the minds of it's fans. But the one most in danger of suffering from the backlash of burnout/disappointment is actually Superman, which follows both of those. Especially if Synder lays on the worst aspects of his style too thick.

As always though, the play is the thing. If the dramatic content is sound, it doesn't matter as much what the package is. I also don't think comic book superheros are a genre unto themselves. They are typically action/adventure movies with the origin-centric films crossing into 'coming of age' territory.
And those genres will be viable for as long as people want a story told to them.

TF3 and Harry Potter will each clear $300. I think Harry Potter will actually take the summer. That movie is going to destroy.

Not sure any of the others will. Definitely not Pirates - I think people are tired of that series.

Super 8 looks great to me but will be lucky to make more than $200.

I think the blockbuster superhero movies this year will satisfy critically, but they won't make as much money as expected by studios.

I haven't heard anyone say they look forward to the new Spider-Man. Everyone wants to see Nolan's final Batman, which I'm confident will be fantastic. As for The Avengers, that could do well or flop big time. It just seems way too overstuffed and if I recall Robert Downey Jr. has a smaller role in it. If Marvel had any sense they'd revolve the Avengers movie around him for obvious reasons.

I don't think comic book movies die this year, but I think that by year's end people will be ready to see the final Nolan Batman and move on from the genre. Up to this point we haven't really had a satisfying conclusion to a superhero movie story arc (Spider-Man 3, X-Men 3, Superman 3/4, Batman Forever/& Robin, etc.). If Nolan can do that I don't think audiences will care to sit through more franchise reboots and reimaginations.

You make great points. I said this once before and have heard others say the same thing but eventually they have to stop with the origin stories. How many more times do we need to see how Peter Parker became Spiderman or Clark Kent Superman? I'm not even necessarily talking about sequels but how bout just something different for a change? How many origin stories are coming out tbs summer? And my problem with origin stories is that every one is exactly the same. We meet the character. He/she discovers powers and defeats the bad guy in the end but it's always left open for a sequel. Boring. I'll give the graphic novel movies a little credit just because they're not the same old same old.

I don't think super hero movies are going anywhere for a long, long time.

I'm sure somebody said that about giant monster movies, Westerns, slashers and "torture porn" at some point too.

^ Well they're still around, it's just the frequency of their output that's changed.

I think for characters who haven't been in a full-fledged film, an origin story is fine. Films that are reboots and the like definitely should not have them.

In the end, I hope that the superhero genre becomes more akin to the detective-noir genre in the respect of how they are "hired guns" whose backgrounds are unimportant to the story or their tasks.

Heavily doubt that considering if you look at those Box Office receipts.

I can see the Westerns comparison, but slashers and torture porn aren't even in the same league. Super Hero/Comic Book movies though are really just action movies, with a larger then life character. Unless the summer blockbuster action flick starts fading away too, I don't really see hero movies leaving either. There will be up and down years where some movies aren't gigantic blockbusters, but I think you'll see them as a staple during the summer for awhile.

True. Super hero movies are essentially action movies but moreso there super hero movies. That would be like saying a hard core porno with a lot of action it in is an action movie. No...it's a porno. Super hero movies have action but they're still distinctly super hero movies. They may have action in them but I don't find them at all similar to say Indiana Jones, Transformers, Die Hard, The Matrix or the countless other action movies that don't have super heroes in them.

I kind of want to see it since Part 3 was such a miss. I was genuinely excited about Part 2. Then I felt pretty burned out.

I don't think the series is going to pull the audience it once did. I guess we shall see!

Right, but I'm saying that there isn't much difference from a typical super hero movie versus some of the ones you listed. In either one we're following a person do impressive feats and "save the day." That formula really hasn't changed, and I don't see much of a difference between what Neo does in the Matrix versus any other comic book character, powers and all. Your porno movie example is terrible

well besides Transformers...superhero flicks are a franchise. World wide pop culture etc etc..they're not going anywhere unless a bunch of them started to suck bad critically and financially