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Given the glass ceiling there seems to be with the Academy and just even nominating guys Jesse Eisenberg's age a win for him would be a monumental upset.

Same here. I like TS3 just fine, but it's such a rehash of TS2 I don't see how it is getting so much praise.

Yes, Tyler Perry makes movies for black females, age 35-60, who like romance novels and soap operas. One up for diversity.

That isn't the problem with his movies, it's how poorly written, directed, scored and acted they are.

For Colored Girls - Even the credit sequence was offensively corny.

Gabourey Sidibe is exactly the same age, and she was nominated for the Best Actress oscar. Audrey Hepburn was even younger when she WON the Oscar. So age isn't a determing factor for who is nominated, or wins.

Although, I think it's a bit easier for young actresses to get noticed because of the relative lack of standout roles for women. Only once has the Best Actor winner been under 30 (Adrien Brody for The Pianist), while at least 10 actresses under 30 have won Best Actress.

I don't believe that has ever stopped "The Academy" before.

Picture
1. The Social Network [100] NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, SAG*, AFI**, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, BFCA*, GG*
2. Black Swan [20] SAG*, AFI**, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. The King’s Speech [18] SAG*, NBR*, BIFA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***
4. Winter’s Bone [18] AFI**, NBR*, GIFA, SDFCS, BFCA*, CFCA*
5. The Fighter [14] SAG*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, GG*
5. Inception [14] AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***
7. Toy Story 3 [12] BSFC***, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*
8. The Kids Are All Right [10] SAG*, AFI**, GG*
9. The Town [8] AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*
9. True Grit [8] AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*

Director
1. David Fincher/The Social Network [78] NBR, BSFC, NYFCC, CFCA, LAFCA**, WAFCA, NYFCO, SEFCA, TFCA, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, BFCA*, GG*, SFFCC**
2. Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan [22] BSFC***, SDFCS, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SFFCC**, TFCA***
3. Christopher Nolan/Inception [14] INFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
4. Tom Hooper/The King’s Speech [6] BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
5. Danny Boyle/127 Hours [6] DFCS, BFCA*

Actor
1. Colin Firth/The King’s Speech [68] LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, SAG*, BSFC***, BIFA, WAFCA, SEFCA, SFFCC, DFCS, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, TFCA***
2. Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network [34] NBR, BSFC, SAG*, TFCA, HFCA, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
3. James Franco/127 Hours [28] SAG*, NYFCO, INFC, LVFCS, DFWFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
4. Jeff Bridges/True Grit [8] SAG*, BFCA*, CFCA*
5. Robert Duvall/Get Low [6] SAG*, BFCA*

Actress
1. Natalie Portman/Black Swan [60] BSFC, CFCA, SAG*, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, TFCA***
2. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter’s Bone [34] SAG*, LAFCA***, WAFCA, TFCA, SDFCS, DFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***, SEFCA***
3. Annette Bening/The Kids are All Right [22] NYFCC, SAG*, BSFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
4. Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine [12] SFFCC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
5. Lesley Manville/Another Year [10] NBR, CFCA*

Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale/The Fighter [76] NBR, BSFC, CFCA, SAG*, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, LVFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
2. Geoffrey Rush/The King’s Speech [24] SAG*, LAFCA***, BIFA, SEFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right [16] NYFCC, SAG*, BFCA*, CFCA*
4. John Hawkes/Winter’s Bone [16] SAG*, SFFCC, SDFCS, CFCA*, INFC***
5. Andrew Garfield/The Social Network [10] BSFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*

Supporting Actress
1. Melissa Leo/The Fighter [48] NYFCC, SAG*, BSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, DFWFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
2. Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit [34] CFCA, SAG*, INFC, SEFCA, TFCA, HFCA, AFCA, BFCA*
3. Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom [26] NBR, LAFCA, SFFCC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
4. Amy Adams/The Fighter [20] SAG*, LVFCA, DFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
5. Helena Bonham Carter/The King’s Speech [14] SAG*, BIFA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*

Screenplay, Adapted
1. Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network [98] NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*
2. Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit [6] BFCA*, CFCA*, TFCA***
2. Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter’s Bone [6] BFCA*, CFCA*SEFCA***
4. Nicole Holofcener/Please Give [4] BSFC***
5. Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3 [4] BFCA*, CFCA*
5. Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle/127 Hours [4] BFCA*, GG*

Screenplay, Original
1. David Seidler/The King’s Speech [28] LAFCA***, BIFA, SEFCA, SFFCC, SLGFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
2. Christopher Nolan/Inception [24] CFCA, WAFCA, FFCC, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, SEFCA***
3. Chris Sparling/Buried [8] NBR
4. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz & John Mclaughlin/Black Swan [8] AFCA, BFCA*, CFCA*
5. Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right [6] BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*

Animated
1. Toy Story 3 [74] NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, CFCA, WAFCA, NYFCO, SEFCA, SFFCC, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, AFCA, GG*, INFC***, TFCA***
2. The Illusionist [22] NYFCC, BSFC***, LAFCA***, GG*, CFCA*
3. How To Train Your Dragon [14] INFC, TFCA, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***

Documentary
1. Exit Through the Gift Shop [38] CFCA, LAFCA***, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, TFCA, SDFCS, AFCA, SEFCA***
2. Inside Job [26] NYFCC, PGA*, BSFC***, SEFCA, NBR*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Waiting for Superman [22] PGA*, NBR, LVFCS, DFWFCA, CFCA*
3. The Tillman Story [22] PGA*, SFFCC, SLGFC, FFCC, NBR*, CFCA*, INFC***
5. Marwencol [10] BSFC, TFCA***

Foreign Film
1. Korea/Mother [24] BSFC, LAFCA***, SEFCA, SFFCC, CFCA*, TFCA***
2. Italy/I Am Love [22] BSFC***, NYFCO, SDFCS, FFCC, GG*, CFCA*
3. France/Carlos [16] LAFCA, NYFCC
4. Mexico/Biutiful [16] WAFCA, DFWFCA, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***, SEFCA***
5. France/Of Gods and Men [10] NBR, TFCA***

Music (Score)
1. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross/The Social Network [26] BSFC, LAFCA**, LVFCS, SLGFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
2. Clint Mansell/Black Swan [22] NYFCC, CFCA, NYFCO, BFCA*
3. Hans Zimmer/Inception [14] WAFCA, HFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
4. Carter Burwell/True Grit [8] BSFC***, BFCA*, CFCA*
5. Alexandre Desplat/The Ghost Writer [4] LAFCA**

Music (Song)
1. I See The Light/Tangled [8] LVFCS, BFCA*, GG*
2. You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me Yet/Burlesque [4] BFCA*, GG*
3. We Are Sex Bob-Omb!/Scott Pilgrim vs. The World [4] HFCA

Editing
1. Black Swan [8] BSFC
2. Inception [8] BSFC***, LVFCS
3. Scott Pilgrim vs. The World [4] SDFCS
4. 127 Hours [2] BFCA*
4. The Social Network [2] BFCA*

Sound Mixing/Editing
1. 127 Hours [2] BFCA*
1. Black Swan [2] BFCA*
1. Inception [2] BFCA*
1. The Social Network [2] BFCA*
1. Toy Story 3 [2] BFCA*

Visual Effects
1. Inception [10] LVFCS, SLGFC, BFCA*
2. Alice in Wonderland [2] BFCA*
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I [2] BFCA*
2. Tron: Legacy [2] BFCA*

Cinematography
1. Matthew Libatique/Black Swan [36] LAFCA, NYFCC, BSFC***, NYFCO, SFFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, CFCA*
2. Wally Pfister/Inception [32] CFCA, WAFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, HFCA, FFCC, BFCA*, SEFCA***
3. Roger Deakins/True Grit [24] BSFC, LAFCA***, SEFCA, SLGFC, BFCA*, CFCA*
4. Anthony Dod Mantle/127 Hours [6] BFCA*, DFWFCA
5. Robert Richardson/Shutter Island [2] CFCA*
5. Jeff Cronenweth/The Social Network [2] CFCA*
5. Danny Cohen/The King’s Speech [2] BFCA*

Art Direction
1. Inception [14] LAFCA, WAFCA, FFCC, BFCA*
2. The King’s Speech [6] LAFCA***, BFCA*
3. Black Swan [6] LVFCS, BFCA*
4. Shutter Island [4] SDFCS
4. Monsters [4] BIFA

Costume Design
1. Alice in Wonderland [6] LVFCS, BFCA*
1. Black Swan [2] BFCA*
1. The King’s Speech [2] BFCA*
1. True Grit [2] BFCA*

Makeup
1. Alice in Wonderland [2] BFCA*
1. Black Swan [2] BFCA*
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I [2] BFCA*
1. True Grit [2] BFCA*

what do the numbers and stars mean?

*=nomination, **=tied win, ***=runner up.

For the numbers, the number before the title is the ranking, obviously. As for the numbers after the title, I have a system where, in my experience following these things, I weight each group depending on how much true influence that have over the Oscars. SAG, for example, is much more likely to determine the oscar nominations than the St. Louis Gateway Film critics. So the number is kind of their 'score' based on that.

Kind of like with Metacritic, where Roger Ebert's review chumps everyone else despite his criticism turning to shit in the past few years.

My favorites to win in the big categories are the following:

Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: Darren Arnofosky, Black Swan
Best Actor: James Franco, 127 Hours
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Cinematography: True Grit
Visual Effects: Inception
Screenplay, Adapted: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Screenplay, Original: Christopher Nolan, Inception

Yes I realize the director for the Best Picture winner usually wins Best Director, but I think DA should win. The biggest one up for grabs though is Best Picture, I wouldn't have a problem with Black Swan, Inception, True Grit winning it either.

^ Pretty much agree, except I think David Fincher will win Best Director and Colin Firth will win Best Actor.

they'll reward black swan with portman and maybe cinematography (though they definitely owe roger deakins, so that might be true grit's one win). but picture is between the king's speech, the fighter and the social network. fincher has directing wrapped up.

The Social Network has the momentum. I'd still put King's Speech at #2 and The Fighter as the dark horse. Bale likely has Supporting Actor and Leo or Adams could win Supporting Actress, which gives that film 2 strong acting wins.

Oh, and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) is a lock to win Adapted Screenplay.

One to consider for Picture and Actress (and, in my book, cinematography) is Rabbit Hole. The fact that it's not on that chart anywhere surprises the hell out of me.

I think it's between Social Network and King's Speech at this point, The Fighter doesn't seem to have the same momentum at all.

How did you allow yourself to actually rank Scott Pilgrim AHEAD of The Social Network in the Editing category?

Did anybody notice that the Oscars are being hosted by James Franco and Anne Hathaway? An odd choice. I get the feeling this isn't going to help Franco's chances of winning.

Because it deserves it. Easily the best of the three "Toy" films and one of the best Pixar has made. A strong film with a strong finish that puts a loving cap on the series. It's easily my favorite film of the year.

And, I love TS2 but I hardly see 3 as a rehash, no more than any other movie sequel that uses the same characters.

I honestly don't get the love for Toy Story 3 either.

There was minimal character development in the thing, the story is a bland rehash of prison escape movies past - but you know, told with toys, there was nothing to attach to, there was no suspense outside of the garbage bin sequence, little humor and no emotional pull outside of a kid that is way too old getting soggy eyed over some toys.

It wasn't bad by any means, just a bit bland, and the heaps of praise for it is kind of ridiculous.

I said that to my friend walking out of the theater. "I'm calling it now....Sorkin will take home the Oscar for this". None of the other nominated adapted screenwriters shouldn't bother showing up.

You know, that's one category where I would feel TSN is deserving of a win.

He sure is, because those liberal loons that make up the Holly-weird elites can't wait to hand out another award to a drugged-up, left-wing pinhead.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but, seriously, your complaint about the story being told with toys I don't get. It's called Toy Story 3 for a reason.