Mr. Cinema

Finalists for Best Makeup:

Alice in Wonderland, Barney's Version, The Fighter, Jonah Hex, True Grit, The Way Back, and The Wolfman.

3 get nominated. I can't believe that Jonah Hex is in the top 7, but Black Swan isn't.

Sondheim

The film has been receiving quite a bit of awards attention and has also placed on a number of year end "Best" lists. It has a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 86 on Metacritic. And it was also a pretty big hit with art house audiences. I'd consider all of those to be "good things." As for the trailer - I've seen a lot of mediocre trailers for genuinely great films, so I don't consider that a particularly good barometer for a film's quality.

foofighters7

^
Well I am into "Art House" films and have many friends who are into the same. Everyone I know seems to have a similar view to it. I haven't heard anyone who actually seen it say anything amazing about it.

Could be wrong of course.

I have a feeling I am very right though.

Throwing Copper

I really liked "The Kids Are All Right" a lot. I think one of the reasons many people weren't blown away by it is because it's more of a romantic comedy/drama, and nothing like that, no matter how well done, is going to make people say "wow".

It's really good for what it is. Well written, terrific performances and a good story.

hardercore

most the guilds have spoken, and a resounding top 10 is starting to emerge.


Picture
1. The Social Network [142] NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, NSFC, SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, DGA*, ASC*, ADG*, CAS*, AFI**, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, OFCC, KCFC, BFCA*, GG*, UFCA**
2. Black Swan [44] SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, DGA*, ASC*, ADG*, CAS*, AFI**, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Inception [42] PGA*, WGA*, DGA*, ASC*, ADG*, CAS*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, COFC, INFC***
4. The King’s Speech [38] SAG*, PGA*, DGA*, ASC*, ADG*, NBR*, BIFA, PFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***
5. The Fighter [30] SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, DGA*, ADG*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, GG*
6. True Grit [28] PGA*, WGA*, ASC*, ADG*, CAS*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*
7. The Kids Are All Right [18] SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, AFI**, GG*
8. The Town [20] PGA*, WGA*, ADG*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*
9. 127 Hours [20] PGA*, WGA*, ADG*, AFI**, BFCA*, UFCA**
10. Winter’s Bone [20] AFI**, NBR*, GIFA, SDFCS, BFCA*, CFCA*, NSFC*

Director
1. David Fincher/The Social Network [96] NBR, BSFC, NYFCC, CFCA, NSFC, DGA*, LAFCA**, WAFCA, NYFCO, SEFCA, TFCA, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, OFCC, BFCA*, GG*, SFFCC**, UFCA**
2. Christopher Nolan/Inception [32] DGA*, INFC, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***, TFCA***, UFCA**
3. Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan [26] DGA*, BSFC***, SDFCS, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SFFCC**, TFCA***
4. Tom Hooper/The King’s Speech [10] DGA*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
5. Olivier Assayas/Carlos [8] LAFCA**, NSFC**

Actor
1. Colin Firth/The King’s Speech [80] LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, SAG*, BSFC***, NSFC***, BIFA, WAFCA, SEFCA, SFFCC, DFCS, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, PFCS, KCFC, BFCA*, GG*, TFCA***
2. Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network [46] NBR, BSFC, NSFC, SAG*, TFCA, HFCA, OFCC, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
3. James Franco/127 Hours [36] SAG*, NYFCO, INFC, LVFCS, DFWFCA, UFCA, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
4. Jeff Bridges/True Grit [8] SAG*, BFCA*, CFCA*
4. Robert Duvall/Get Low [6] SAG*, BFCA*

Actress
1. Natalie Portman/Black Swan [80] BSFC, CFCA, SAG*, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, TFCA***
2. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter’s Bone [34] SAG*, LAFCA***, WAFCA, TFCA, SDFCS, DFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***, SEFCA***
3. Annette Bening/The Kids are All Right [26] NYFCC, SAG*, BSFC***, NSFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
4. Lesley Manville/Another Year [12] NBR, CFCA*, NSFC*
5. Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine [12] SFFCC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***

Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale/The Fighter [96] NBR, BSFC, CFCA, SAG*, NSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, LVFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, BFCA*, GG*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
2. Geoffrey Rush/The King’s Speech [36] NSFC, SAG*, LAFCA***, BIFA, SEFCA, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right [16] NYFCC, SAG*, BFCA*, CFCA*
4. John Hawkes/Winter’s Bone [16] SAG*, SFFCC, SDFCS, CFCA*, INFC***
5. Jeremy Renner/The Town [10] SAG*, BFCA*, GG*, NSFC*

Supporting Actress
1. Melissa Leo/The Fighter [54] NYFCC, SAG*, BSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, DFWFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, PFCS, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, NSFC*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
2. Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit [42] CFCA, SAG*, INFC, SEFCA, TFCA, HFCA, AFCA, KCFC, COFC, BFCA*
3. Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom [32] NBR, LAFCA, SFFCC, UFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, NSFC*
4. Amy Adams/The Fighter [24] SAG*, NSFC***, LVFCA, DFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
5. Helena Bonham Carter/The King’s Speech [14] SAG*, BIFA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*

Screenplay, Adapted
1. Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network [128] NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, NSFC, WGA*, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, USC*
2. Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit [12] WGA*, FCA*, CFCA*, USC*, TFCA***
3. Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle/127 Hours [10] WGA*, BFCA*, GG*, USC*
4. Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter’s Bone [8] BFCA*, CFCA*, USC*, SEFCA***
5. Ben Affleck, Steven Craig & Sheldon Turner/The Town [6] WGA*, BFCA*

Screenplay, Original
1. Christopher Nolan/Inception [44] CFCA, WGA*, WAFCA, FFCC, OFCC, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, SEFCA***
2. David Seidler/The King’s Speech [32] LAFCA***, NSFC***, BIFA, SEFCA, SFFCC, SLGFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz & John Mclaughlin/Black Swan [12] WGA*, AFCA, BFCA*, CFCA*
4. Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right [10] WGA*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
5. Nicole Holofcener/Please Give [8] WGA*, BSFC***

Animated
1. Toy Story 3 [94] NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, CFCA, WAFCA, NYFCO, SEFCA, SFFCC, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, GG*, INFC***, TFCA***
2. The Illusionist [22] NYFCC, BSFC***, LAFCA***, GG*, CFCA*
3. How To Train Your Dragon [14] INFC, TFCA, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***

Documentary
1. Exit Through the Gift Shop [54] CFCA, LAFCA***, NSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, TFCA, SDFCS, AFCA, OFCC, KCFC, COFC, SEFCA***
2. Inside Job [38] NYFCC, NSFC, PGA*, WGA*, BSFC***, SEFCA, NBR*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Waiting for Superman [22] PGA*, NBR, LVFCS, DFWFCA, CFCA*
3. The Tillman Story [22] PGA*, SFFCC, SLGFC, FFCC, NBR*, CFCA*, INFC***
5. Restrepo [12] HFCA, PFCS, NBR*, CFCA*

Foreign Film
1. Korea/Mother [32] BSFC, LAFCA***, SEFCA, SFFCC, KCFC, COFC, CFCA*, TFCA***
2. France/Carlos [24] LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC
3. Italy/I Am Love [22] BSFC***, NYFCO, SDFCS, FFCC, GG*, CFCA*
4. Mexico/Biutiful [20] WAFCA, DFWFCA, PFCS, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***, SEFCA***
5. France/Of Gods and Men [10] NBR, TFCA***

Music (Score)
1. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross/The Social Network [26] BSFC, LAFCA**, LVFCS, SLGFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
2. Clint Mansell/Black Swan [22] NYFCC, CFCA, NYFCO, BFCA*
3. Hans Zimmer/Inception [22] WAFCA, HFCA, PFCS, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*
4. Carter Burwell/True Grit [8] BSFC***, BFCA*, CFCA*
5. Alexandre Desplat/The Ghost Writer [4] LAFCA**

Music (Song)
1. You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me Yet/Burlesque [8] PFCS, BFCA*, GG*
1. I See The Light/Tangled [8] LVFCS, BFCA*, GG*
3. We Are Sex Bob-Omb!/Scott Pilgrim vs. The World [4] HFCA

Editing
1. Inception [12] BSFC***, LVFCS, PFCS
2. Black Swan [8] BSFC
3. Scott Pilgrim vs. The World [4] SDFCS
4. 127 Hours [2] BFCA*
4. The Social Network [2] BFCA*

Sound Mixing
1. Black Swan [6] CAS*, BFCA*
1. Inception [6] CAS*, BFCA*
1. The Social Network [6] CAS*, BFCA*
4. Shutter Island [4] CAS*
4. True Grit [4] CAS*

Sound Editing
1. 127 Hours [2] BFCA*
1. Black Swan [2] BFCA*
1. Inception [2] BFCA*
1. The Social Network [2] BFCA*
1. Toy Story 3 [2] BFCA*

Visual Effects
1. Inception [14] LVFCS, PFCS, SLGFC, BFCA*
2. Alice in Wonderland [2] BFCA*
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I [2] BFCA*
2. Tron: Legacy [2] BFCA*

Cinematography
1. Matthew Libatique/Black Swan [44] LAFCA, NYFCC, ASC*, BSFC***, NSFC***, NYFCO, SFFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, CFCA*
2. Roger Deakins/True Grit [40] BSFC, NSFC, ASC*, LAFCA***, SEFCA, SLGFC, PFCS, BFCA*, CFCA*
3. Wally Pfister/Inception [36] CFCA, ASC*, WAFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, HFCA, FFCC, BFCA*, SEFCA***
4. Anthony Dod Mantle/127 Hours [10] BFCA*, DFWFCA, UFCA
5. Jeff Cronenweth/The Social Network [6] ASC*, CFCA*
5. Danny Cohen/The King’s Speech [6] ASC*, BFCA*

Art Direction
1. Inception [22] LAFCA, ADG*, WAFCA, FFCC, PFCS, BFCA*
2. The King’s Speech [10] ADG*, LAFCA***, BFCA*
3. Black Swan [10] ADG*, LVFCS, BFCA*
4. Shutter Island [10] ADG*, SDFCS
5. Alice In Wonderland [6] ADG*, BFCA*
5. True Grit [6] ADG*, BFCA*

Costume Design
1. Alice in Wonderland [10] LVFCS, PFCS, BFCA*
1. Black Swan [2] BFCA*
1. The King’s Speech [2] BFCA*
1. True Grit [2] BFCA*

Makeup
1. Alice in Wonderland [2] BFCA*
1. Black Swan [2] BFCA*
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I [2] BFCA*
1. True Grit [2] BFCA*

AnonomusBob15

my picks.

Picture/Director/Actor/Adapted Screenplay/Editing

a True Grit win in some of these would not upset me, though I would like to see Social Network make a sweep.

Actress/Cinematography
Black Swan (Aronofsky could win for director)

Christian Bale for supporting actor, no doubt. Jacki Weaver, supporting actress. Animal Kingdom was my favorite movie this year, though I might think The Social Network is a better film.

Count Dooku

Shouldn't Toy Story 3 be in that resounding top 10?

raven56706

Looks like there are near locks... Social Network might win it all...


No one can beat Christian Bale at this point

Mr. Cinema

The ASC announced their nominations for Best Cinematography:

-Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
-Wally Pfister (Inception)
-Danny Cohen (The King’s Speech)
-Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
-Roger Deakins (True Grit)

Deakins is long overdue, but I'm guessing Libatique is the front runner. This might be one of the tougher tech categories to pick. Sad to see the absence of Shutter Island.

RichC2

imo, Deakins hands down deserves the win. Not even in a long overdue sense, True Grit was a beauty.

Mr. Cinema

I haven't seen True Grit...yet, but based on what I have seen, I'd probably pick Black Swan.

Rypro 525

3. We Are Sex Bob-Omb!/Scott Pilgrim vs. The World [4] HFCA

I would fuckin love it, if this got a nod for best song, but knowing the academy, its prob a very VERY big long shot

Groucho

It's not a very good song, plus the lyrics come from the graphic novel so I'm not sure if it would qualify as "original".

Count Dooku

First televised award show of the season happened last night.

The Broadcast Film Critics handed out their Critics Choice Awards. Here are the top winners:

BEST PICTURE
The Social Network

BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth, The King's Speech

BEST ACTRESS
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo, The Fighter

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
David Seidler, The King's Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

The Fighter also won Best Acting Ensemble, so if Bale and Leo can keep it going at the Globes, it will start to look really good for them at the big show.

Julianne Moore, who co-starred in A Single Man with Colin Firth, presented him with his Best Actor award, and he proceeded to give a wonderful speech (no surprise). But is anybody going to vote for Jesse Eisenberg for the Oscar knowing that he will just get up and stumble his way through some "Thank You's"?

They had Kevin Spacey on to present Best Actress, which leads me to believe that whoever decides such things was expecting Annette Bening to win. Portman had better prepare a MUCH BETTER acceptance speech for the Globes if she wants to lock this down.

Drexl

Do you really think they pay attention to the speeches when considering their votes?

NiCK Crush

I would certainly hope that would have nothing to do with the final decision,

Count Dooku

I do. Though, maybe not on a conscious level.

Critics and people on forums like this like to debate he quality of the performances, but ultimately an Oscar voter (just like a voter in a political election) is putting a check-mark next to SOMEBODY's name. And part of them has to be considering: Is this the person that I want standing up and representing the highest achievement in MY profession?

Oscar voters know that the speeches of the Actor and Actress winners are the most watched and most replayed moments from the show. How those winners come off is how the industry is perceived.

It is still considered to be tight race. (I saw a a Vegas line with Bening at 8-5 and Portman at 9-5.) It is to Portman's advantage that when she has the chance to accept an award that she present herself as the kind of thoughtful and articulate person that people enjoy seeing accept an award.

Drexl

Maybe, but I remember reading an article a couple of years ago where Ron Howard said they really don't think about the show when voting. Not that he would be an authority on the thing, but surely he knows other Academy members. I suppose it could be subconscious though.

Count Dooku

They have Meet-and-Greet cocktail parties for potential nominees seeking "Your Consideration" where all they do is smile, shake hands and chat politely. No one is saying anything about the relative merits of the performance that voters are supposed to be evaluating, they are just saying: Meet this person. This person is a nice and friendly person. Wouldn't you like to vote for this nice and friendly person that you have met?

And all the sudden appearances by potential nominees on The Tonight Show et al are just self-promotion saying: Learn something about me as a person. See me as someone you would like to vote for.

It's all very political. Just as a candidate for POTUS has to seem presidential, it helps a potential Oscar candidate to appear as the kind of person a voter wants representing the highest standard of their industry.

PopcornTreeCt

I think Natalie Portman has the Oscar on lock. The Annette Benning talk has died down considerably.

islandclaws

With the great box office Black Swan has been doing, I'd say it's Portman's to lose.

Dr Mabuse

It's nice to see Melissa Leo's considerable talent being recognized.

She was amazing as the lead in 'Frozen River', and I have been hoping her career would take off since that film.

RayChuang

I think right now we have at least three potential "locks" as Oscar winners:

Colin Firth--Best Actor The King's Speech
Natalie Portman--Best Actress The Black Swan
Christian Bale--Best Supporting Actor The Fighter

It will be interesting to see will the older AMPAS membership prevail (The King's Speech wins Best Picture) or the younger membership prevail (The Social Network wins Best Picture).

Rypro 525

I think Andrew Sorkin winning best adapted screenplay for Social Network should be a lock at this point right?

Ginwen

I don't see this as a lock, but we'll see as it gets closer.