I think Melissa Leo had to show that she is in fact beautiful in real life and not some nasty New England housewife.

What is a good website that captures all of this prediction madness?

how about you just type it?

Because it's longer than I can type. Eh I'll try to get it down next time I hear it.

I'm more interested in where the right photograph was taken than Leo's consideration message.

^ Damn you fixed it before I could be a smart ass.

Looks like a day spa pool.

Yeah, that's what I get for posting quick after a long day.

Never seen this laid out directly. That's interesting.

D'oh! Sorry. Guess I was combining shit and flack.

Hrm, interesting, I guess I should check my facts before I post. Here I was thinking I was pulling out some obscure bit of knowledge and you guys totally trivia-cockblocked me. I still stand by the general truthiness of my statement.

Am I the only one picking Inception for Cinematography? I can definitely see Deakins winning since he's overdue, but Pfister has managed to win a few more over Deakins. Had he won the BAFTA, he's probably a safer pick, but Deakins took that.

His wins: ASC, Chicago Film Critics, Dallas Fort-Worth, Florida, Hollywood Film Festival, Las Vegas, San Diego, San Fran.

Deakins has the BAFTA. He's won twice before as well and still lost on Oscar night. He has also won the Boston Critics, Central Ohio, Online Film Critics, and Phoenix.

This is really True Grit's only real shot at a win and outside of Editing, Cinematography is the biggest tech award. I just don't see it working out that way. Inception should be a multiple winner. I think most voters will pick it for most of the tech awards, including this one.

Yeah, I think Deakins may win because it could be True Grit's only award. However, I would not be shocked if Hailee Steinfeld takes Supporting Actress. I still think Leo will win, but if I were forced to pick an upset in the acting categories, that's the one.

Cinematography is my favourite category at the Oscars. I just love the craft. And few lineups would beat 2007's immense group of nominees: Roger Deakins with the No Country-Jesse James double, Robert Elswit who won it for There Will Be Blood, Janusz Kaminski for Diving Bell and Seamus McGarvey for Atonement. In any other year any of those nominees would be a worthy winner.

Anyway to get to the point of my post, for those tossing up the tight Cinematography race this year:

Cinematography
1. Wally Pfister/Inception [56] ASC, CFCA, BFCA, WAFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, HFCA, FFCC, BAFTA*, SEFCA***
2. Roger Deakins/True Grit [48] BSFC, NSFC, BAFTA, ASC*, LAFCA***, SEFCA, SLGFC, PFCS, BFCA*, CFCA*
3. Matthew Libatique/Black Swan [46] LAFCA, NYFCC, ASC*, BSFC***, NSFC***, NYFCO, SFFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
4. Danny Cohen/The King’s Speech [8] ASC*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
5. Jeff Cronenweth/The Social Network [6] ASC*, CFCA*

My personal prediction is Deakins, just for the 'due' factor. But if I were the one choosing, I'd reward Libatique's work for Black Swan.

I'm reading that as well about Steinfeld. And looking back, she's actually won several critics awards. It's certainly possible. Dave Karger is going with her as his choice.

There won't be any movie montages this year. They've scrapped those to speed up the show. And in really great news, no group presenters either for the acting categories. I hated those. Give me my 30 second clips instead of an awkward 2 minute story about each nominee.

The Social Network won the ACE for Editing, another huge victory. If The King's Speech had ended up winning that, TSN would have been in even worse shape and it probably would have signaled a TSK sweep. I think next Sunday is going to be one of the more recent Oscar shows that will have some real excitement on who's winning.

This ACE shows that TSN is still in the running. But I think it'll only end up with Directing, Screenplay, and Editing. I think TKS likely ends up with Picture, Actor, and Screenplay.

Inception may not be the lock for both Sound Awards. True Grit took home the CAS for Sound Mixing.

That would be "shlack".

Strangely, the recent Entertainment Weekly shows Natalie Portman and Annette Benning almost neck and neck (40% chance vs. 35%) , despite the fact that Portman has won almost all of the early ones.

They are giving the edge to David Fincher for directing, but Tom Hooper is a close second there as well.

Saw "True Grit" today and loved it. There's been some rumblings that Steinfeld could pull a Tilda Swinton and sneak in for Supporting Actress. I understand why they would put her in that category as it'd be an easier victory, but there is no way she was supporting. When you're in literally every scene, you are the lead. I'm wondering if her chances increase for a win because she really is a lead in this category. Could Leo and Carter split the vote?

I'm actually tempted to pick her as a surprise choice. Swinton won because they wanted to give "Michael Clayton" something. They may want to reward TG with more than one award, assuming it wins Cinematography. It may take Sound Mixing as well since it won the CAS.

I was surprised by how close the Supporting Actor percentages were. Only 35% for Christian Bale vs 30% for Geoffrey Rush, despite Bale winning nearly every award outside the BAFTA, which everyone knew would go to Rush.

But at least there's some logic behind Rush getting his numbers, with TKS gaining steam. They've got Mark Ruffalo at 20%, which seems too high.

3 of the 4 Oscar voters say they're going with Bale as their choice. Outside of 2 of those people checking off Amy Adams for Supporting Actress, the rest of the categories seem all over the map.

I just remembered that they're not doing the Barbara Walters Special anymore. Not that I have watched it an a while, but if I were still doing so, I would think this year's guests would be:

Christian Bale- Because they love stories about people who were once considered down and out making a comeback.

Natalie Portman- They love to interview Best Actress favorites

Lady GaGa- Because they seem to always need one music based interview with an "it" person and this would be the one.

That was totally self-serving, and I apologize, but I am certain at least one of those would have been on the list.

even though it also won the Golden Globe, I predict that In A Better World will win best foreign film. (seen all five of the foreign films in the last past week)

She won because it was a killer performance in an awesome film.

Have you seen The King's Speech yet? What are you thoughts if you have.

Yes, Swinton did give a killer performance. That's why I picked her a few years back. I'm saying they wanted to reward Michael Clayton with SOMETHING, and that was the best category to do it. It was a surprise win. Most people were picking Ruby Dee or Amy Ryan.

Planning on seeing TKS sometime next week.

Was Swinton considered an upset? I thought she was the best of the group.

She wasn't in Clayton a ton but when she was she commanded the screen, honestly she was about the most memorable thing in the movie.