The Social Network picked up both the ACE, as Mr. Cinema mentioned, and the MPSE guilds this weekend.

What do you guys think about those wins, along with this far too one-the-nose new trailer (even for Harvey Weinstein) ...

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indicating a possible King's Speech backlash and an 11th hour momentum swing back to The Social Network? I'm not getting hopes up but I'd certainly like it.

Wow, that trailer was terrible. Also, just about every single person commenting on it was white... such a WASPy movie.

I'm still going with The Social Network for the win.

I didn't see many persons of color in TSN...oh except for the slutty Asian chicks.

and the asian guy that wins that thing that gets him hired for Facebook.

Oh...and Rashida Jones. I'd love for her to be Lois Lane....

Rather than create a new thread, I'm sure someone here can answer my question...

Every year it seems that DVDTalk does an Oscar Predictions Voting Competition where there is a link to the Oscar site and you predict who you think will win. It is usually a special password that only enables DVDTalk members to vote.

Has that been started yet? Or am I just imagining the whole thing?

It was more of a surprise than an expected win. It was also a more wide open race. Dee won the SAG. Ryan won several of the big critics awards, and Blanchett won the Globe. Swinton did win the BAFTA, but most people were choosing Ryan or Dee. This year feels sort of the same. Leo has won alot. Carter is back in the race with the BAFTA. And Steinfeld won several critics awards. Supp. Actress is usually given early. If Carter wins, it might indicate a big TKS sweep. But I expect it to be a share the wealth evening. I'm going with The Social Network for director, screenplay, and editing. I am picking it for score, but TKS could definitely win that as a throw-in victory.

Even though TSN still has a chance of an upset, I think TKS will win picture, actor, screenplay, and then a couple of tech awards. If True Grit holds on for cinematography, and then wins sound mixing as it did at the CAS, and somehow Steinfeld upsets, then that would give it 3 as well. We could have a night where 4 films win at least 3, with Inception taking sound editing, visual effects, and maybe art direction. We'll be able to see how the tide is going on Sunday. If TKS loses both supporting categories, and then loses stuff like costumes, score, art direction to other films, it'll make for an interesting evening.

But I don't expect a Slumdog type of sweep. If TKS were truly destined to sweep, it probably would have won the ACE, and not lost for director or editing at the BAFTA either. I think those loses still show a very strong support for TSN. At least this drama will make the show more interesting then it has been in recent memory.

Nice to see TSN win the MPSE for the dialogue portion. Those Sound guilds don't match up too often. The CAS has been all over the place the last decade. Since everyone votes, I'm assuming Inception will sweep this year, as was the case for Bourne Ultimatum and King Kong. But True Grit winning the CAS does make it a tougher choice.

Wow, that King's Speech new trailer thing is horrendous, it makes me wish I didn't like the movie.

Sasha Stone on Awards Daily pointed out that no film that has won the National Board of Review, NY Film Critics, and Golden Globe has lost Best Picture at the Oscars. That's an interesting stat. So we could see history if The Social Network loses. Of course, you can come up with all sorts of combinations to justify a film winning.

That's the sentiment we're all wondering if Academy members might be feeling...

Most of the ballots were sent off a long time ago, so any misstep at this point is unlikely to have any effect.

There's no way that King's Speech trailer is real, it can't be.

But it's Harvey Weistein, so it probably is.

I believe Pete Hammond mentioned that there's several hundred ballots that hadn't been turned in as of last week. Not sure how much that affects BP, but it might affect other races.

I watched The King's Speech today and I must say, if it goes on to win BP, it'll join the growing list of horrible choices made by the Academy. I'm not sure why people are raving over this film. And I'm not sure why Carter is in the conversation for Supp. Actress. Firth was great, as was Rush. They definitely had good chemistry on screen, which was important given their respective roles. The score was good, but I prefer TSN's. I don't plan on re-watching it anytime soon, if ever. It'll be an embarrassment if Hooper beats Fincher. Hopefully the bulk of the voters will correct the mistake the DGA made.

As good as Firth was, if I were voting for Actor, I'd probably pick James Franco.

For my money Jesse Eisenberg gave the most subtly complex performance of the bunch. But Franco is also very good, and much as I love him Bridges should perhaps be replaced by someone like Dorff in Somewhere, or Eckhart in Rabbit Hole.

I predict the short documentary film: Strangers No More will the Oscar.

Thank you! I was beginning to think I was the only one that thought this.

My picks: Will Win / Should Win

Actor - Firth / Franco
S.Actor - Bale / Bale
Actress - Portman / Portman
S.Actress - Steinfeld / Adams (I'd actually be happy with Steinfeld winning as well)

*Haven't seen Biutiful or Rabbit Hole

Interesting opinion piece: How Crash Saved the Oscars.

The article's basic thesis is that the backlash against Crash winning over the clearly superior and clearly favored Brokeback Mountain was so strong that the Academy took notice and realized that their choices do matter to people outside their own little social circle. Since then, all of the Best Picture winners (The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Hurt Locker) have been critical favorites as well as non-traditional choices compared to what the label "Oscar movie" used to mean, which may bode well for The Social Network over The King's Speech.

Not sure I buy the argument completely, but it's an interesting idea. I guess we'll find out how it holds up in less than a week.

Yo man, that movie was OFFICIAL. King George the Sixth is my BOY. seeing homie on the come up like that was some inspiring-ass motherfucking shit.

But word to life tho, this trailer right here? Straight up ho

Personally, I would give the Best Picture Oscar to Toy Story 3, as it had well written characters about whom you really cared in a simple but touching story to which many can relate. But silly me, cartoons aren't serious cinema in the US>

They're serious enough to get nominated, but it's been a while since I've seen one good enough to make the cut. Toy Story 3 didn't stand out as particularly great to me and frankly I would be put off if it wound up winning (story felt like a generic rehash, character arcs were no more indepth than most TV material, wasn't particularly funny/exciting/adventurous, etc; )

Then again, I think Spirited Away should have gotten a nom and win in the category when it was released (it was easily superior to the winner, Chicago), so what do I know. I'm not the biggest Pixar fan so this is bias, but TS3 doesn't deserve the acclaim its getting over any number of previous features they've done -- it doesn't differentiate itself at all. Of course, that seems to be what sells for them and why I rarely seem to get into Pixar movies (Toy Story 2, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille being exceptions... the first 30 minutes of Up held so much promise, disappointing.)

And yes, I criticize TS3 every chance I get because the ridiculous amount of praise it gets drives me nuts

I'm not sure why you bothered to see it as all of the above opinions were clearly formed beforehand. I could have written this review for you, based on your previous comments in the thread, and saved you the time.

I don't mean that as an attack on you - no one is completely objective. I just think your passion for The Social Network and it's direct competition with The King's Speech during this award season strongly influenced your assessment of the latter. Personally, I went into both films not particularly keen on seeing either one. I saw The Social Network with my friend on a whim and went to The King's Speech with my wife, because it seemed like something she would enjoy. I came away feeling The King's Speech was more tightly executed than The Social Network and deserves much of the praise it has since received. And that was a bit of an upset, because I typically am not one for period dramas.

Although I preferred The King's Speech, I wouldn't fault the Academy if they chose The Social Network for Best Picture. Neither, however, would be a "horrible choice" by any stretch.

I can tell you absolutely love The King's Speech since my comments seemed to get under your skin. I watched The King's Speech with an open mind. I came away underwhelmed. Plain and simple. It's standard fare with 2 good performances and something I don't plan on ever watching again. And I'm not the only one who feels that way. So yes, in my informed opinion, I think it'll be a horrible choice for Best Picture as it's yet another safe, stale selection.

I've seen The Social Network 4 times now. Clearly it's my favorite. It's about a subject I find much more interesting than whether or not King George can get through a speech without stuttering. Trust, betrayal, greed, trying to fit in, etc. Those are issues many people can relate to. Those are issues that affect people every day. And whether the old farts like it or not, social networking is a part of our culture now. I find it fascinating to see how it all came out, more or less. It's just a perfectly blended together story with great pacing and editing. Fincher gave us a great film.

You're off base in proclaiming you knew what my comments on The King's Speech would be. If I had been more impressed, I would have said so. You're angry basically because I already made my mind up that Fincher deserves Best Director. Sorry, but I was so blown away by his film that I was confident enough that he did deserve it. Now, do I actually care that this bothers you? Well, you probably can answer that one for me.