I wondered if my piano player theory worked for actresses as well.

The only example I could find was Holly Hunter for, what else? The Piano.

A couple of things...

The country has to pick the film they want to represent them. Of all the films in China, I'm sure China imagined another "grander" film might have a better shot.

Also, I think it's too old. Isn't it a 2002 or 2003 film?

I think the controversy surrounding Million Dollar Baby may unhinge its chances. Also, it's a downer, and academy voters like films with a little more of an upbeat ending. I can't think of a Best Picture winner that ended on a down note other than Schindler's List, and even that was "inspirational."

I'd be thrilled if M$B won, and I'd be even happier if Sideways won, just because it's an even smaller film, and the award would help Payne's career more than Eastwood's. But I don't see either of these indies winning. The Aviator is big and blustery and clips from it will look great in the future Oscar reels.

Also, all five of the Best Picture nominees are decent films, but they're not Lawrence of Arabia. They're not The Godfather. Heck, there's not even a film worthy of Annie Hall or The Apartment.

My point is that whatever film wins, when viewed with the list of all Best Picture winners I don't see 2005 standing out as one of the better films of that list of 77.

Clint Eastwood just won the DGA award.

Hmmm. Midnight Cowboy, both Godfather films, The English Patient, Hamlet, All Quiet on the Western Front (perhaps the downest ending in the history of cinema)... and a ton of others that have intensely downbeat climaxes, if somewhat hopeful actual endings: One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Unforgiven, The Lost Weekend, West Side Story, The Deer Hunter, Platoon, All the King's Men, American Beauty, Titanic...

Yes, there's the English Patient. I think I tried to put that one out of my mind as even having been a Best Picture winner.

The Godfather films didn't really end sadly. I mean, at the end of the first one Michael ascends to Don, and of course his story arc throughout the trilogy is tragic, but it's still powerful and the film's point of view is looking at his character with a bit of pity. I was too young at the time to know if it was considered controversial.

Anyway, all I hear about is The Aviator anymore. Remember last year when a few weeks before the nominations everyone thought that Cold Mountain was going to win Best Picture, and then it wasn't even nominated?

I think the early buzz for M$B will end up hurting it in the end - especially since Eastwood and co. aren't "mounting anything."

I'd be happy with either of the films winning, and also happy if Sideways somehow squeaked by as The Aviator and M$B votes were split too unevenly.

I don't really see anyone voting for Finding Neverland or Ray.

Foxx did an awesome performance......it was incredible and i some times second guessed myself.......

He literally became Ray

yeah, but anybody could have done that apparently.

An awards show for art?
What a country!
In Soviet Russia, art awards you!

Tarkovsky would probably agree with this.

I can't wait for Ray 2: The Pepsi Years.

Agreed. These people must be blind.

you got the right one babbbyyyyyyy