dvd-4-life

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Why So Blu?

That demographic didn't shift to DVD right away. I know I didn't - and it took a while before the really good DVDs started coming out. DVD was not superior in quality when it was initially released. Sure, it's almost 20 years later and technology is different but for the studios to hope that UHD will be embraced by everyone (I don't even think it's being marketed to the everyman) is futile. Phantom Stranger made some excellent points about format adoption. Honestly, the only way I see UHD making a dent - the dent that was supposedly going to made by 3-D, is to price the hardware/software at extremely low prices. Pareto's principle (20/80 rule) will not sustain UHD if they market it to the wealthy and then you'll really see a divide in that folks will turn to cheaper alternatives like streaming.

Adam Tyner

I thought all the "DVD is inferior to Laserdisc" arguments were based on (1) lousy anamorphic widescreen downconversion in early players and (2) pre-release demos with abysmal encoding compared to actual release product. I didn't buy in until September 1999 and had never actually seen a DVD played before then, so I can't speak from firsthand experience. Either way, I'm not incredibly wealthy now and was certainly not in '99 (just beginning my senior year of college), so I'm not part of the wealthy demo you mentioned as the last bastion of Laserdisc. We got our first LD player in 1984, but it wasn't something I could rightly call "mine", and I hadn't laid eyes on it for a few years before adopting DVD.

bruceames

I'm curious about that as well. My guess is no, not if it's UV code. However if they package Vitidy with it then yes. That would be ideal AFAIC.

I also wonder about 3D. What about the movies that have 3D versions released in theaters and make it on to 1080p BD. Are they going to bundle those with UHD BD, or will we have to choose between buying the UHD BD movie in 2D or the 3D BD?

bruceames

Products don't need to be targeted to the mainstream to be successful. UHD BD will be niche, just like Laserdisc was. Laserdisc was around for over 20 years and was anything but extremely low priced. Anything that's low volume needs higher prices and there's only so much you can do to "force" volume on to a product by lowering prices. There's a tipping point beyond which lower the price further will erode profits (the resulting increase in volume won't offset it)

morriscroy

Definitely.

Simple "supply and demand" from economics 101.

orangerunner

My feeling was that Laserdisc was probably a money-loser as far sales go but the accountants may have used the profits of VHS to offset the loses. They knew that the technology of laserdisc would be the future and it was worth the research and development to continue with the format - which ultimately lead to DVD.

I could be wrong but I think UHD Blu-ray, by the fact it is a physical disc, will barely survive even the niche market.

I would equate UHD Blu-ray to when D-VHS entered the market. Digital VHS was a superior format which offered 720p HD but it was a tape format when everyone was interested in discs.

There is even less tolerance in the market today for attempting to improve on an "old" technology.

PhantomStranger

Hollywood was much more of a movie-driven business in the days of Laserdisc. There are still movie fans in the business but today Hollywood is definitely run by MBAs and accountants.

Adam Tyner

I don't think this is the case. For one, Laserdisc lasted a couple of decades. Distributors like Image Entertainment and Elite Entertainment -- which were LD only -- thrived without having VHS sales as a buffer. The R&D for the format wasn't really shouldered by the studios.

I'm obviously not suggesting that LD was champagne wishes and caviar dreams for anyone behind it, but it did well enough to keep chugging along, and that's what I'm hoping for from UHD BD. I'm not optimistic it'll be a success even by niche standards, but that's still my hope, anyway.

orangerunner

Fair enough, but do you feel companies like Elite and Image Entertainment would have thrived had the larger studios not adopted the format as well?

In Asia and especially in Japan, laserdisc was the preferred format whose sales probably helped offset the lesser demand in North America.

zyzzle

Very sad, but true, and probably the #1 reason why UHD will fail. Those young, hotshot MBAs running the movie business will release a few slipshod titles in 4k, expecting the next magic bullet, see that they don't sell very well, and kill the format. Self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a niche-niche market where 1000 units selling will be a big run for titles. If those MBAs understand that from the outset, the format may indeed survive a few years.

4k scans of older films aren't cheap, and I can understand reluctance to release many of those... I do think that those MBAs might want to take a few for the team, ie those film aficinados who will be buying into 4k, however.

How fabulous would a top-notch 4k presentation of, for example, BLADE RUNNER look? I'm salivating there.

Adam Tyner

Honestly, though, does it matter? I'm not a shareholder in any of these companies. If the format is reasonably well-supported, the movies look terrific, and the discs aren't outrageously overpriced, that's all that matters to me. If the major studios don't find it worth their time but license to smaller outfits that do, we still get those movies at the end of the day.

FWIW, Image and Elite weren't the only companies releasing on LD either. Major studios like Fox, Disney, and Universal were handling their own releases even late in the format's life.

orangerunner

In the case of Laserdisc, it really doesn't matter but what I'm suggesting is that if UHD Blu-ray doesn't get strong studio support, I don't feel the niche companies have the financial backing to push the format forward.

With the studios already reluctant to push Blu-ray any further, I can't see them going balls-out on UHD Blu-ray at this stage.

But hey, maybe I'll look back at this thread in five years and I'll be completely wrong.

Alan Smithee

Laserdiscs were mainly distributed by two companies- Image and Pioneer. Of the major studios, Pioneer had Paramount, Warner, MGM and Universal while Image had Disney and Fox along with most of the smaller video labels (they picked up Warner and MGM in the last couple years of the format, around the same time DVD started). Pioneer put out a few music and anime titles in the first years of DVD but they don't seem to be doing anything now, Image still puts out Blu-Rays but not from any major studios.

Most of Image's laserdiscs were overpriced- single discs were usually $39.99 and anything requiring a 2nd disc (over 2 hours) went up to $49.99. This included B-movies, which I wonder how many were actually sold at full price. I got most of those as "cutouts" at Camelot Music priced at a more reasonable (for the time) $15 or lower. A number of their discs were also manufactured by Technidisc, which had terrible quality, but others were made by Kuraray in Japan which were generally perfect.

Considering how many Blu-Rays come with a standard DVD (which I see as pretty much useless), UHD discs will likely at least come with a standard Blu-Ray- if they do it that way I'll start getting titles right away, but as I did with the HD formats I won't buy a regular Blu-Ray by itself if the same title is on UHD, even if I can't play it right away.

Adam Tyner

I see things moving further and further away from stores and more towards direct sales. It'll be up to collectors to keep their ears open and make an effort to find things rather than being subjected to a studio push.

You're absolutely right about what you've said above, but I think we're defining "success" for UHD BD in two different ways. I'm sure expectations are modest, and there's not going to be a massive push from anyone at any point.

Alan Smithee

Mail-order was a big part of laserdisc for some people, as not everyone lived near stores that sold them. I still prefer going to actual stores whenever I can, but I'd rather order UHDs through the mail than not have them at all.

TheBang

including the Columbia House Laserdisc Club, which is how I got a large portion of my LD library.

PhantomStranger

The studios hate direct sales and dealing with consumers, but I fully agree with you. The cost savings from selling direct are infinitely better when 1500 units will be a major success.

fitprod

Alan, slight corrections...

When Pioneer was in it's hey-day, say late 1980s/early 1990s, they had distribution for Paramount and Live (Artisan - Lionsgate)

Image Entertainment distributed Disney, Fox and Criterion.

Warner Brothers, Universal, MGM and Sony did their own distribution. All of them, save Sony, would use various companies for replication, usually that was 3M, Sony, Pioneer USA or Pioneer Japan. (Sony used their own plants in Hunts"We ARE laserrot"ville and Austria for replication, unless there was over-run, as was the case with Men In Black.)

When the marketplace started to consolidate, around the end of 1995, Image picked up MGM, launching with Showgirls. (Well before DVDs launch actually, and may have had more to do with their distribution deal with Fox...)

A year later Pioneer picked Universal's distribution, and I believe the first title may have been Dragonheart.

Warner Brothers eventually signed a distribution deal with Image, I believe it was late 1997/early 1998, after deliberately screwing around with their LD release schedule for a year or so, to favor DVD. The most notorious delays were during the initial DVD launch. Space Jam (which was part of the regional launch) and Heat, which was said to have had "replication" problems, and delayed a month.

Sony never did sign a direct distribution contract, but they were the first to officially leave the business. I Still Know What You Did Last Summer was their final, and only, release in 1999. (LD fans knew we were screwed when John Carpenter's Vampires didn't get a release.)

fitprod

AaronSch

This format is DOA. If Blu-ray has failed to convince the majority of consumers to switch why would anyone believe the Ultra HD format would stand a chance? The push for Blu-ray adoption was tremendous and the studios cranked out a staggering number of titles in a very short time. I'd say 90% of the catalog titles I really want to own are already available on Blu-ray.

I see a short lived series of high profile Ultra HD releases and then a slow decline as with 3D. Its too late in the game as packaged media continues its steep decline. By no means am I greeting this with glee, 'cause it depresses the hell out of me, but it is the reality. I continue scooping up every Blu-ray catalog title my budget will allow before they are out-of-print forever.

orangerunner

I think Blu-ray took too long to release titles and, even now, there are still many, many popular titles that still don't have a Blu-ray release. The format will be 10 years old next year and only in the last year or so has there been a push
to release older catalogue titles through companies like Shout!, Kino & Olive.

On the other hand, I think if they flooded the market with catalogue Blu-ray, the demand would not have been there to justify it.

PhantomStranger

The catalog flood only happened because the studios don't view Blu-ray as profitable anymore and hence decided to license almost everything out to smaller labels.

The studios were so cautious releasing catalog fare that I think it did hurt Blu-ray's adoption. It was sad to see catalog movies getting better serviced over in Europe while Hollywood sat on their thumbs.

I fear the same thing will likely happen to UHD. This time the independent labels won't be able to rescue a movie, since 4K transfers will simply be beyond their economics.

Adam Tyner

A lot of these indie labels aren't routinely doing their own transfers, though. The lack of existing 4K masters for basically everything is a limiting issue, of course.

JimRochester

My signature hasn't changed in a year or more with almost no titles on my wanted list being released. Still some good ones out there that need a decent presentation.

dvdshonna

Sharp to sell world’s first 8K TV in October, for about $125,000
"The first 8K televisions for consumers are expected sometime in 2018."

http://fortune.com/2015/09/16/sharp-8k-tv/

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