Exactly. So, shouldn't we be counting Blu-ray the same as DVD then if we go by "full studio support"? (not directed at you)

I was thinking about this earlier, but what about all those people who bought fool-screen dvds. There has to be a more than a million of those at the very minimum. When those people eventually upgrade to an HDTV and try and play those discs, their going to be in for a rude awakening. I imagine many of those will update in February and probably a huge push by BDA (if they're smart and do some bundling with HDTVS) because of the changeover.

They'll probably just zoom or do a horizontal stretch to fill the screen and won't be able to tell it's wrong -- if they've even got their display set up properly in the first place. I'll bet most of the crap-and-scan buying knuckle-draggers are just getting converter boxes, anyway, and are still content enough with their 19" CRTs.

Wait. Did I say "I'll bet"? Crap.

hahaha.

You may disagree with the survey but these are the types of polls that the industry pays for to get an accurate idea as to what the mood on the market is. Zogby also produces the same type of polls during election times and generally speaking they are regarded as a very reliable source.

Obviously, this is where you and I disagree -- I think that DVD will be phased in the years to come.


VHS is the only other mass format that has been phased by another mass media format in my lifetime. Hence, it is the only valid comparison that I could bring forward in order to analyze when and how DVD is going to be phased. I also disagree with you that Blu-ray isn't doing enough to "excite". I think that there is more than enough visibility for the format that should encourage faster adoption during 2009. The only issue in front of it is the economy. It is a serious issue, of course, but it is something every other industry has to deal with as well, including DVD. Most importantly, the studios appear very excited about the future of Blu-ray.

The "good enough" theory is also something I disagree with. As it isn't entirely up to the consumer to sustain DVD's market viability. The moment DVD reaches that tipping point where it no longer makes sense to support it, the studios will begin restricting content for it. And this will be the beginning of the end. There could be a few small companies that will keep lingering with a sporadic release or two, but the market will shift elsewhere. It is inevitable and anyone who believes that the studios would not phase one of the formats in order to encourage further growth, and improve profits, is simply delusional.

Pro-B

I've seen Beta, VHS, 8 tracks, reel to reel, 16mm home movies, LP's, Laser Discs, cassettes, and soon 8mm tapes bite the dust. Even in poor economic times they eventually went by the wayside.

Finally, I found something to disagree with Pro-B about. I don't predict DVD being replaced anytime soon. I'd say 10 years. Maybe. VHS players are just finally being phased out of the market for the most part and how long has DVD been selling right alongside VHS. Yep, over 10 years.

Here's what would be smart. I'm not fond of Disney really, but they did something rather smart and intelligent with their 50th Ann. release of Sleeping Beauty. A full-out DVD copy of SB along with the Blu-ray version. If more studios do this, I think we would have more adopters. Because it's a win-win purchase. You buy the Blu version, and even if you don't have a Blu player yet, you still have the DVD version.

Didn't work (yes, I know this is a Combo and not a seperate DVD - but its still the same idea)

Absolutely. When it no longer makes sense to support a format, then the studios will begin phasing it out. But when will that be? You really think that in 5 years it will no longer make sense to support DVD? 10 years? 15 years?

I'm inclined to think that in 10-15 years, this might start if Blu-ray or another medium becomes successful. And it will take another 10-15 years before it is phased out. DVD will be nothing like VHS, which started getting phased out almost immediately and was totally done by 10 years.

DVDs aren't going anywhere. It has, at the very least, 10 years left until it will [b]I[b]start[/I] to be phased out... but more than likely it'll be closer to 15 years.

What a Half-Baked Idea. *snicker* LOL

Love the dual-release idea, and I hope we'll see more of it in the future. Don't have any use for the digital copies. But I'd love to see more DVD copies packaged in with the blu-ray.

I have a big family, and for many movies, we want both the HD and SD version of the movie. There have been a few times I've passed on the HD version, just because I knew we'd get more use out of the SD version.

The biggest problem with the HD-DVD/DVD Combos were all the glitches. I had 5-6 combo discs that wouldn't play. A couple wouldn't load, and a few froze halfway through the movie.

I just bought my first hdtv and a blu-ray player. I'm still not convinced how much better a blu ray movie is compared to regular dvd. Maybe once I've sat down and watched an entire movie I'll have better Judgment on the matter. But at this moment sddvd still has a good picture quality to me.

I prefer a separate DVD. I don't like the possibility of having to *loan* out my "DVD" copy when it's embedded on a Blu-ray disc. There are many more advantages to a separate copy versus a copy on the same HD disc.

Different media, but records, 8-tracks, & cassettes were all phased out by better tech. Hell CDs have almost been phased out.

Actually... New LP's are sporadically still produced.

fitprod

I'm going to go out on a limb and say even more often than that. You can go into many music stores or even Hot Topic and they have a pretty large selection of LP's

Yes, I think that in five years we will begin seeing content being restricted on DVD. I also believe that the studios will begin experimenting with featureless DVDs (phasing the SE 2DVD sets) and premium SE BD much sooner.

A new mass physical format is very unlikely, in my opinion, to appear any
time soon, 10-15 years. Furthermore, I foresee a number of smaller DVD-only distributors either merging with larger competitors, or simply going belly-up. Unfortunately, I think that the niche-labels, some of which I am a big fan of, will not survive DVD's decline. In fact, I believe that what we saw last year with some local and independent European labels is only the beginning of a trend that will weed out even more.

Pro-B

I thought that it was obvious that I was referring to mass media formats only, as these are the formats we compare in this discussion, but I was wrong. With other words, your clarification above is correct.

Pro-B

namja, remember we have a different situation here. Movie studios are not going to just automatically embrace a new format once Blu-ray has become somewhat successful years down the road. That's suicide. They already have PTSD with HD DVD competition, and I am sure they don't wanna see another situation like that again.

I wouldn't be surprised if a new format comes out from a small company every other year. But the thing is...movie studios won't embrace it. And if they don't embrace, it will die a quick death.

Movie studios now have the control of a format, and they won't just let it go.

Don't worry, I'm sure JVC has some crazy idea in the works.

The studios control the content, and this is all that matters in this business.

Pro-B

Most of the studios seem to be releasing content for downloads. I see content from Sony, Warner, Universal, Fox, MGM, Paramount, and Lionsgate for sale as DD. I'm not sure I'd say that's all that matters. There has to be customers (and with customers... money).

-beebs

While they control the content, they don't control formats and how they are accepted by consumers(cough coughUMDcough cough)

Sure they do.


Example 1:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20081222PD214.html

Example 2:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081224/...he_dark_knight

Of course it matters, if the studios restrict content for DVD and HD and your only access to the content is downloads - you have a viable format (hence the reason I noted earlier that the phasing of DVD isn't entirely up to the consumer).

Pro-B