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Wired article - Blu Ray still hasn't taken off

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Old 09-03-08 | 02:26 PM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by trespoochies
Just to clarify, even though I now it's a negative article, I am an avid supporter of BD. In fact, the last dvd I got was of The Office Season 4, and that's only because it's not on BD. But prior to that, it's been months since I've gotten a DVD. I'm more concerned about overall perception of the format, which so far isn't good or is treated as another niche format - at least here in the States. Can't speak for anywhere else though. But I'm fairly certain if the issue is addressed regarding the loweing of BD software and hardware, it'll vastly improve the BD situation.
As Pro-B alluded to, BD has only had full studio support on shelves for a total of 2 months. That's not a very long time. And as I mentioned, the BDA will have this Christmas all to themselves to convince fence-sitters to jump onto the bandwagon. I think it's way too early to hit the panic button. There's been plenty of positive articles pertaining to BD's growth and future.

I'm excited about Q3 and Q4. Loads of great titles, lower priced players, and of course, the PS3 will be another hot seller. Don't let the doom and gloomers bring you down. Keep in mind that before year's end, The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indy 4, Wall-E, Incredible Hulk, and many other new releases will be on store shelves to help drive the format. And then you have some great classics such as the Godfather Trilogy, Sleeping Beauty, and the Criterion releases as well.

Will The Dark Knight do for BD what The Matrix did for DVD? I think chances are good.

Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 09-03-08 at 02:30 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by bunkaroo
Isn't this still technically illegal for DVD as well? You have to circumvent copy protection to do it.
Only if you're breaking the encryption. A digital copy of a DVD doesn't break the encryption. Reencoding to MP4 is different, because there you are stripping off the encryption. Besides, I'm doing this for my own personal use, not as a means of distribution.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
Taking the word to its NASA history, Apollo 11 did not "launch" when the Saturn V rocket was developed, or even when the crew was selected and trained. It launched when the craft left the launchpad, headed toward the moon.
LOL! Hard to argue with that!
Old 09-03-08 | 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
Is there a reason why you think that disagreeing with what has been posted isn't a form of respectful discussion?

I don't see my post suggesting anything like that. I am not surprised by the fact that another negative article is posted here. I believe you have misunderstood what I posted.
If I misunderstood you, I apologize. Indeed, I could've read too much into your earlier post as the impression it gave me was that you were a) disappointed with the fact that another "negative" article was being discussed; b) disappointed that it was being lent too much credibility; and c) that you held some level of contempt for this site in general as you perceived items "a" and "b" to be regular occurances. I think it's fair to mention and discuss articles like this, whether they're positive or negative -- as long as people are respectful of each other. Usually, things only get stirred up around here when someone jumps in and starts stirring.

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
And frankly I think that anyone who writes an article where specific time frames are brought up to suggest a trend, negative in this case, yet fails to mention that only months ago all of the majors were not unified behind Blu-ray, hence I don't understand how you could expect faster growth, is quite naive.

Pro-B
I'm not sure if that "you" was aimed at me or just a general "you", but I don't have an answer. In terms of speed of growth, I don't know what to expect. Obviously, the CE manufacturers and the studios both see $$ potential in Blu-ray. For now, at least. For many consumers -- including quite a few non-grandmothers, etc., who post here -- it's just too expensive right now. This article, however, is, in my opinion, inaccurate and misleading.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by applesandrice
Yet, so far, at least, it's been discussed in measured, respectful terms.

Pro-B, your post suggests that you are unhappy with the climate here at DVDTalk. Perhaps you'd be happier elsewhere?
Hear, hear.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:43 PM
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I agree with those who think this holiday will determine the future of BD. Hopefully it starts a downward trend for price as a road to the mainstream. While this article is a bit factually challenged, the gist does hold water, BD prices need to come down to hit the mainstream, especially in the current financial climate.

It cannot be argued that there is one hell of a line up for the format this fall/winter.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by applesandrice
I'm not sure if that "you" was aimed at me or just a general "you", but I don't have an answer. In terms of speed of growth, I don't know what to expect. Obviously, the CE manufacturers and the studios both see $$ potential in Blu-ray.
Samsung clearly does not see much of a lifespan in 5 years.
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml

Last edited by Gizmo; 09-03-08 at 02:51 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Samsungly clearly does not see much of a lifespan in 5 years.
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml
I saw that over at AVS, but was a little afraid to mention it.
Old 09-03-08 | 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by applesandrice
I saw that over at AVS, but was a little afraid to mention it.
C'est la vie. No reason to start two negative BD threads, right? Its making the rounds at HDD, Gizmodo, ect.
Old 09-03-08 | 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by kefrank
yes, it's illegal and therefore, a moot point. it is rather silly to discredit a format, just because it makes it harder to break the law.
I think you are mistaken. An action being illegal does not mean that it has no effect on the product. People will gravitate toward whatever format supports their personal needs, whether those needs are deemed illegal or not. Arguably one reason that VHS won was because a user could record and archive a 2 hour movie on one tape. This is a technically illegal act, even under the Betamax decision.

Some people have a need to copy BD movies, whether bought or rented. The legality of the action has no bearing. The only concern is if the format will allow the action. If it will not, those users will find another way to obtain the content.
Old 09-03-08 | 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Samsung clearly does not see much of a lifespan in 5 years.
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml
And what I see a terrible misinterpretation. Sounds like the author of the article clearly mistook LCD for BR. Unless I am missing the obvious connection between OLED and BR.

Another poorly written article.

Pro-B
Old 09-03-08 | 03:43 PM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
And what I see a terrible misinterpretation. Sounds like the author of the article clearly mistook LCD for BR. Unless I am missing the obvious connection between OLED and BR.

Pro-B
That's sort of what I thought when I read the article too... how is OLED supposed to replace Blu-ray?!?
Old 09-03-08 | 03:46 PM
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I blame the non-exclusion of more porn on bluray

Old 09-03-08 | 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Yavin
That's sort of what I thought when I read the article too... how is OLED supposed to replace Blu-ray?!?
This is a question for those who believe that Samsung's message is clear.

I don't have an answer.

Pro-B
Old 09-03-08 | 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
This is a question for those who believe that Samsung's message is clear.

I don't have an answer.

Pro-B
First, here's the PocketLint article:

Originally Posted by PocketLint Article
NEWS: 3 September 2008 16:17 GMT by Stuart Miles
Samsung has said that it sees the Blu-ray format only lasting a further 5 years before it is replaced by another format or technology.

"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK told Pocket-lint in an interview.

Hoping to capitalise before it's too late, Griffiths believes that 2008 is the format's year.

"It's going to be huge", he told Pocket-lint. "We are heavily back-ordered at the moment."

Citing online rental sites like LoveFilm's adoption of Blu-ray titles, the move to offer cheaper players and a now clear path to adoption following the Blu-ray HD DVD battle, Griffith says the format will be a winner, although not for long.

Instead Samsung is putting its faith in its OLED technology. The new technology, which is "ready to rock", is being held back at the moment due to high manufacturing costs.

"We will launch the OLED technology when it's at a price that will be appealing to the consumer, unfortunately that's not yet."

Griffiths, citing 2010 as a possible date for your calendar, told us he believes that when the technology becomes mainstream it will replace LCD.

"It's gonna be big, but at the moment it's a great story, not commercial, product."

Samsung previewed two OLED screen televisions at IFA in Berlin earlier in the month, out-manoeuvring Sony to be the largest models on show at the show.

Coming in 14- and 31-inch models, the screens that are incredibly thin, produce vivid contrasts and colours.

Sony settled for second place with a 9- and 27-inch models, but it wasn't the only area that Samsung claimed a "world's first" over their Far East rivals.

The company has recently announced it's partnered with Yahoo to offer widgets on its internet connected televisions as it tries to turn the television into an information hub of the home rather than the PC.

"The content has to be relevant, but once it is it will make the TV more than a TV", said Griffiths.

So where next? Griffiths is clearly thinking about the future citing more focus on rolling out LED backlighting in the range as well as improving the quality of the offering.

But it seems the Olympics is on the man and the company's minds.

"In 2012 we will be in a true HD world. Everything from your television to your camcorder will be offering you pictures in high-definition, and we plan to offer you that HD world from all angles."

With 4 years to go, the prospect sounds exciting, but by then Blu-ray will be, if Samsung are to be believed, on its last legs.
That wasn't the exact article I saw over at AVS, but this is:

Originally Posted by Electronic Home Article by Chuck McKenney
Having beaten HD DVD in the format war, Blu-ray remains the champion of high-definition. But how long will that dominance last? Not long, according to one high-level Samsung executive.

“I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn’t give it 10”, Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK told Pocket-lint.com.

Griffiths didn’t elaborate on exactly what would knock-out Blu-ray, only adding that it will be replaced by another format or technology.

With that said, Griffiths also believes the time is now for Blu-ray. “It’s going to be huge”, Griffiths is quoted in Pocket-lint.com. “We are heavily back-ordered at the moment.”

In sticking with predictions, Griffiths also says OLED will become mainstream in 2010.
Looks like he was indeed talking about two separate things -- the PocketLint article was just bungled.
Old 09-03-08 | 04:28 PM
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The article made mention numerous times to Blu-ray:

"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10", Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK told Pocket-lint in an interview.
Citing online rental sites like LoveFilm's adoption of Blu-ray titles, the move to offer cheaper players and a now clear path to adoption following the Blu-ray HD DVD battle, Griffith says the format will be a winner, although not for long.
With 4 years to go, the prospect sounds exciting, but by then Blu-ray will be, if Samsung are to be believed, on its last legs.
Lets go with the article being wrong for a moment and say he meant to say LCD instead of Blu-ray. Blu-ray is clearly mentioned numerous times. He beleives 2008 is the year for Blu-ray...so apparently he was discussing Blu-ray is some terms. I mean, what else would he be talking about? 2008 being the year for LCD?

If anything it looks like he was discussing two different things (Blu-ray's future and OLED) but the article did not make a great segway from Blu-ray to OLED which is why it may look confusing. It will be interesting to see if this article is retracted/edited in the near future.

But, I expected the ol' defense to come around anyway.

Last edited by Gizmo; 09-03-08 at 04:30 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 04:41 PM
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Why is it surprising for a CE manafacturer to say that a format has a limited life-span ...i.e. a planned date for phase-out? This is what the companies do, they innovate new things and they market it. You have to be deluding yourself into believing Blu Ray will be cutting edge forever. It may stick around and become what DVD is now at some point --- the base-line resolution as compared to ultra high def or whatever is next (debatable) or it may just stay a niche product for HT enthusiasts (debatable as well) or it may be the "end of history for home video" - i.e. no new hard formats after Blu Ray (very unlikely, unless VOD becomes the majority).

The point is that these companies aren't going to make a living selling DVD or Blu Ray players for 50 years. So they will sell you something else. And Fox will be happy to sell you another version of Predator with ultra resolution that allows you to actually be be able to see Jean Claude in the suit.

The decision right now is whether you as a consumer are willing to pay for a player and software now, or sit out Blu Ray entirely, or wait till Blu Ray players and software drop in price and then get in (which is what I am doing). Seems like common sense to me.

Last edited by chanster; 09-03-08 at 04:44 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Pistol Pete
I think you are mistaken. An action being illegal does not mean that it has no effect on the product. People will gravitate toward whatever format supports their personal needs, whether those needs are deemed illegal or not. Arguably one reason that VHS won was because a user could record and archive a 2 hour movie on one tape. This is a technically illegal act, even under the Betamax decision.

Some people have a need to copy BD movies, whether bought or rented. The legality of the action has no bearing. The only concern is if the format will allow the action. If it will not, those users will find another way to obtain the content.
eh, ok. i don't really have the energy to delve deeply into this particular issue, but i'll just say that i don't believe the potential market for Blu-ray has a significant percentage of people with the "needs" you are referring to.

the vast majority of DVD consumers are not ripping their DVDs, even for "personal use." some are, for sure, but it is not a significant portion of the now mass-market DVD-buying public and therefore, would not be a significant factor in the mass-market adoption of another format.
Old 09-03-08 | 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted by trespoochies
Just to clarify, even though I now it's a negative article, I am an avid supporter of BD.
"negative"? What aggravator first tossed that word out there?

-beebs
Old 09-03-08 | 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by kefrank
the vast majority of DVD consumers are not ripping their DVDs, even for "personal use." some are, for sure, but it is not a significant portion of the now mass-market DVD-buying public and therefore, would not be a significant factor in the mass-market adoption of another format.
First off, technical folks totally influence the path of mass adoption, especially if they can agree on something.

Second, Slysoft's AnyDVD (as of March 2008) works just fine circumventing Blu-ray DRM and allows you to run BR images off your hard disc as easily as DVDs.

So there's little to debate here on either front.

-beebs

Last edited by beebs; 09-03-08 at 06:07 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by beebs
First off, technical folks totally influence the path of mass adoption, especially if they can agree on something.
Technical folks have long said AOL sucks but they still did pretty good and had a good chunk of the market.
Old 09-03-08 | 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Mister Peepers
Technical folks have long said AOL sucks but they still did pretty good and had a good chunk of the market.
I don't know of many technical people who didn't agree that AOL was the only way the less technical masses were going to make it online during the 90s. Linux for the truly technical is the way to go, but I know lots of linux heads that nod in agreement that Macs and PCs are for the masses.

-beebs

Last edited by beebs; 09-03-08 at 07:56 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted by beebs
"negative"? What aggravator first tossed that word out there?

-beebs
Any opinion that suggests blu-ray isn't going to supplant DVD in the imminent future, any day now, is a negative opinion. Geez. Don't you read the threads here
Old 09-03-08 | 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by chanster
Why is it surprising for a CE manafacturer to say that a format has a limited life-span ...
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Blu-ray is clearly mentioned numerous times.
Allow me to clarify what Andy Griffiths said and what he did not say so there aren't any further speculations on what his words are and where the editor added his.

The following sentences are the only direct quotes by Andy Griffiths the articles provide:

1.
I think it has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10.
2.
It's going to be huge. We are heavily back-ordered at the moment.


3.
We will launch the OLED technology when it's at a price that will be appealing to the consumer, unfortunately that's not yet.


4.
It's gonna be big, but at the moment it's a great story, not commercial, product.


5.
The content has to be relevant, but once it is it will make the TV more than a TV


6.
In 2012 we will be in a true HD world. Everything from your television to your camcorder will be offering you pictures in high-definition, and we plan to offer you that HD world from all angles.


7.
ready to rock

The [Blu-Ray] addition in quote #1 is by the author of the article Stuart Miles. As are the rest of the clarifications addressing Blu-ray.

Perhaps it isn't clear on this forum but from what I see posted in both of those articles Andy Griffiths never once uttered Blu-ray.

Hope this helps with any further analysis.

Ciao,
Pro-B

Last edited by pro-bassoonist; 09-03-08 at 10:59 PM.
Old 09-03-08 | 11:27 PM
  #75  
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I hope Blu-ray succeeds. I'll take it over HD downloads. I think the format war had more people interested. People were taking sides, people that didn't even have a player, and there was just more excitement overall. All the fighting was great for both formats.

I hope the studios focus more on the catalog releases. My 2 favorites of the year so far have been Almost Famous (not even a domestic release) and Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney -always the champion).


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