When will Blu-ray hit "dvd" status?
07-03-08 | 02:11 PM
#101
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Originally Posted by TheBluRayReview
Exactly no one gives a shit but when Blu-Ray players replace dvd players which will happen within 2 or 3 years once the price falls below $100 then most ppl will give a shit. You think most ppl had a clue about DVD back in 1999 no they where happy with VHS.
Most of you ppl are ignorant and have never have experienced the technology and what it offers as a movie fan is with out doubt unparalleled. I know in ten years time with my Untouchables Blu-Ray im not going to look back and say that looks shit compared to DVD which is a total mess.
Face it DVD was great but it's over DVD was just stepping stone Blu-Ray is the future.
Most of you ppl are ignorant and have never have experienced the technology and what it offers as a movie fan is with out doubt unparalleled. I know in ten years time with my Untouchables Blu-Ray im not going to look back and say that looks shit compared to DVD which is a total mess.
Face it DVD was great but it's over DVD was just stepping stone Blu-Ray is the future.
What you think will happen is the Sony fantasy. Its not going to happen. IMO, Sony and all the other studios see Blu-ray as just something to make up lost DVD revenue until something else happens.
I should mention this to you now. Do not call any of us ignorant. Many of us have had the format before you purchased you're PS3. You need to step lightly around here and not come guns a blazin' to this forum like you did on DVDspot. While I may not agree with everyone's opinion here 100%, we still, for the most part, get along. You're coming in here with some wild predictions that you believe as fact, and people will call you out on it.
07-03-08 | 02:17 PM
#102
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Originally Posted by kefrank
it doesn't matter one way or the other what Sony's BD-Live features will actually be. the point is that they see it as a strong selling point for consumers.
07-03-08 | 02:23 PM
#103
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Exactly no one gives a shit but when Blu-Ray players replace dvd players which will happen within 2 or 3 years once the price falls below $100 then most ppl will give a shit.
07-03-08 | 02:24 PM
#104
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
People didn't own huge VHS collections. They owned a few movies (if even that) and were renters at Blockbuster. Now, its cheap to own DVDs ($4.99 every week at all the major stores) and many people have amassed large collections that they have no reason to re-purchase for $30.
What you think will happen is the Sony fantasy. Its not going to happen. IMO, Sony and all the other studios see Blu-ray as just something to make up lost DVD revenue until something else happens.
I should mention this to you now. Do not call any of us ignorant. Many of us have had the format before you purchased you're PS3. You need to step lightly around here and not come guns a blazin' to this forum like you did on DVDspot. While I may not agree with everyone's opinion here 100%, we still, for the most part, get along. You're coming in here with some wild predictions that you believe as fact, and people will call you out on it.
What you think will happen is the Sony fantasy. Its not going to happen. IMO, Sony and all the other studios see Blu-ray as just something to make up lost DVD revenue until something else happens.
I should mention this to you now. Do not call any of us ignorant. Many of us have had the format before you purchased you're PS3. You need to step lightly around here and not come guns a blazin' to this forum like you did on DVDspot. While I may not agree with everyone's opinion here 100%, we still, for the most part, get along. You're coming in here with some wild predictions that you believe as fact, and people will call you out on it.
To get a higher res than 1080p u need a TV of 60 inches or more and would need sit right up against it to see any difference above 1080p that's a fact and that's what makes Blu-Rays life so much longer.
Yes in the short term Blu-Ray is to makeup for loss of revenue but will in time and i say 4 years DVD will last 6 or so but after 4 i really would not go near the format.
07-03-08 | 03:38 PM
#105
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
IMO, Sony and all the other studios see Blu-ray as just something to make up lost DVD revenue until something else happens.
The ultimate world for the studios is one where you and I pay a fee each and every time we view their content. But in lieu of that, they will settle for getting us to perpetually upgrade to the next, new and improved delivery mechanism, and then milk that mechanism for all they can before discarding it. Why are you so convinced that Blu-ray will be some kind of exception to this long-standing practice?
07-03-08 | 04:01 PM
#106
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Originally Posted by TheBluRayReview
Well im sorry about the ignorant bit but a lot of this stuff i hear from folks who have never seen Blu-Ray. As u said DVD has allowed ppl to amass huge collections. And i think this is one of the reasons why there so hostile to Blu-Ray but i knew this would happen that something would come out and max out home entertainment that was Blu-Ray.
To get a higher res than 1080p u need a TV of 60 inches or more and would need sit right up against it to see any difference above 1080p that's a fact and that's what makes Blu-Rays life so much longer.
Yes in the short term Blu-Ray is to makeup for loss of revenue but will in time and i say 4 years DVD will last 6 or so but after 4 i really would not go near the format.
To get a higher res than 1080p u need a TV of 60 inches or more and would need sit right up against it to see any difference above 1080p that's a fact and that's what makes Blu-Rays life so much longer.
Yes in the short term Blu-Ray is to makeup for loss of revenue but will in time and i say 4 years DVD will last 6 or so but after 4 i really would not go near the format.
Any many people with decent taste in home theater say that to see the difference between upconverted DVD and Blu Ray, you need bigger than a 42' screen.....and finally Disney itself, a major backer of Blu Ray has said it won't be until 2015 until Blu Ray gets over 50% market share..so unless you want to quibble with the people that actually see statistics, see sales figures, and are employed to figure out consumer preferences, I think your projections are a bit optimistic.
Last edited by chanster; 07-03-08 at 04:04 PM.
07-03-08 | 04:38 PM
#107
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Originally Posted by chanster
Why would they be hostile because they own DVD collections? Blu Ray plays DVD. The marketing of Blu Ray players does not endanger anyones collection t all. The other format jumps - i.e. VHS to laserdisc, VHS to DVD involved jettisioning the old collection. This "jump" does not. If the CE companies wanted people to force Blu Ray adoption, they would have not made it backwards compatible...of course if they had did that, the format would be destined to be like D-VHS or something.
Any many people with decent taste in home theater say that to see the difference between upconverted DVD and Blu Ray, you need bigger than a 42' screen.....and finally Disney itself, a major backer of Blu Ray has said it won't be until 2015 until Blu Ray gets over 50% market share..so unless you want to quibble with the people that actually see statistics, see sales figures, and are employed to figure out consumer preferences, I think your projections are a bit optimistic.
Any many people with decent taste in home theater say that to see the difference between upconverted DVD and Blu Ray, you need bigger than a 42' screen.....and finally Disney itself, a major backer of Blu Ray has said it won't be until 2015 until Blu Ray gets over 50% market share..so unless you want to quibble with the people that actually see statistics, see sales figures, and are employed to figure out consumer preferences, I think your projections are a bit optimistic.
As for Disney well fine i still stand by what i said call me crazy but i think Blu-Ray has exceeded all exceptions already.
07-03-08 | 05:44 PM
#108
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Originally Posted by TheBluRayReview
My screen is 40 inches and i see a huge difference between unscaled and Blu-Ray plus 20 inch HD screens make for a great HD picture to as they involve less stretching making them very sharp.
As for Disney well fine i still stand by what i said call me crazy but i think Blu-Ray has exceeded all exceptions already.
As for Disney well fine i still stand by what i said call me crazy but i think Blu-Ray has exceeded all exceptions already.
I agree with your first point about being able to see the difference on a screen size at 40 inches since I have a 42 inch LCD in my bedroom and I can truly tell the difference from 480p to 1080p.
However I do not agree with your second point about Blu-ray exceeding all expectations yet. I love Blu-ray as much as the next guy but there is still a lot of room for growth and improvement.
If Blu-ray has exceeded all expectations, why hasn't every new release been released on it yet. Why is it that Blu-ray owners have to cross their fingers to see if a limited budget non blockbuster would be released or worse not released on it at all? One of my favorite movies of the year Lars and the Real Girl has not been released yet and probably will never be releaesed in high def.
With that being said, when indie films get released on BD on a regular basis, then I can say BD has taken the next step.
07-03-08 | 05:58 PM
#109
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Hardware:
At $100 there will still be a market for $50 DVD players. Seriously. $50 is a lot of money for plenty of folks. There are plenty of folks not interested in TV or movies enough for HDTVs and plenty of folks that don't care what the video looks like (The fullscreen-DVD stretched on widescreen-TV folks for example).
DVD is ubiquitous. It's here to stay...if nothing else, in portable DVD players, laptops, kid's rooms, and the like. It's not going anywhere.
I'll again reference here from October:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6495849.html
Only 53.8% of HDTV owners are actually using them for HD content. Other numbers mentioned say 44%.
Many people aren't even bothering to hook up a free antenna for HD or bothering with spending an extra $10/mo for HD from their satellite or cable company.
If they aren't even bothering with free or cheap HD channels, are they going to invest in blu-ray?
IMO the answer is an obvious no.
Here's some newer numbers:
The Harris Poll® #54, May 13, 2008
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/har...ex.asp?PID=908
See table 5 down a ways...asking folks if they are likely to buy a blu-ray player
65% said NOT AT ALL LIKELY, and 54% of HDTV owners.
Where do numbers like this point to some sort of miraculous, huge growth any day now? I see 14% of the 35% of the HDTV penetration. That's some pretty small numbers, still.
At $100 there will still be a market for $50 DVD players. Seriously. $50 is a lot of money for plenty of folks. There are plenty of folks not interested in TV or movies enough for HDTVs and plenty of folks that don't care what the video looks like (The fullscreen-DVD stretched on widescreen-TV folks for example).
DVD is ubiquitous. It's here to stay...if nothing else, in portable DVD players, laptops, kid's rooms, and the like. It's not going anywhere.
I'll again reference here from October:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6495849.html
Only 53.8% of HDTV owners are actually using them for HD content. Other numbers mentioned say 44%.
Many people aren't even bothering to hook up a free antenna for HD or bothering with spending an extra $10/mo for HD from their satellite or cable company.
If they aren't even bothering with free or cheap HD channels, are they going to invest in blu-ray?
IMO the answer is an obvious no.
Here's some newer numbers:
The Harris Poll® #54, May 13, 2008
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/har...ex.asp?PID=908
In a Harris Poll of 2529 U.S. adults conducted between April 7th and April 15th of this year, Harris found the following (quoted from the report):
Ownership of standard DVD players is practically ubiquitous (87%)
Few report owning Blu-ray disc players (4%), Sony PlayStation 3 (5%), HD DVD players (6%) and the HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 (1% have external drive while 9% have an Xbox 360)
Only nine percent of non-Blu-ray player owners report being likely to purchase a Blu-ray disc player within the next year, even when made fully aware that Blu-ray is considered to be the definitive technology for high definition DVD players going forward
Two-thirds of consumers are familiar with the recently resolved high-definition format war (67%) and seven in ten of them have heard that Blu-ray is the unofficial winner (69%)
Nearly a quarter (23%) of those aware of the format war report that they had been waiting for the rivalry to play itself out before purchasing a high definition player, but by April they had yet to do so
Although one-third of consumers report owning a high definition television set (HDTV; 35%), with incidence higher among males (41%) versus females (28%) and rising decidedly with household income (15% for those with less than $35K vs. 53% among those with $75K+), the percentage of HDTV owners likely to purchase a Blu-ray disc player is only 14 percent
Current ownership of Blu-ray disc players among HDTV owners stands at 10 percent.
U.S. adults are more likely to purchase a Sony PlayStation 3 that plays Blu-ray discs and has Internet access for $399 (11%) or an original Blu-ray disc player without connectivity for the same price (10%) versus a new Blu-ray disc player with Internet for $500-$650 (4%)
Not surprisingly, the under 40 crowd is most likely to opt for the PlayStation 3 as their Blu-ray capable device of choice – fully 23 percent of those in the 30-39 age group are likely to purchase this device in the next year (compared to 14% likely to buy an original Blu-ray disc player or the new Blu-ray disc player with Internet connectivity 5%))
Ownership of standard DVD players is practically ubiquitous (87%)
Few report owning Blu-ray disc players (4%), Sony PlayStation 3 (5%), HD DVD players (6%) and the HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 (1% have external drive while 9% have an Xbox 360)
Only nine percent of non-Blu-ray player owners report being likely to purchase a Blu-ray disc player within the next year, even when made fully aware that Blu-ray is considered to be the definitive technology for high definition DVD players going forward
Two-thirds of consumers are familiar with the recently resolved high-definition format war (67%) and seven in ten of them have heard that Blu-ray is the unofficial winner (69%)
Nearly a quarter (23%) of those aware of the format war report that they had been waiting for the rivalry to play itself out before purchasing a high definition player, but by April they had yet to do so
Although one-third of consumers report owning a high definition television set (HDTV; 35%), with incidence higher among males (41%) versus females (28%) and rising decidedly with household income (15% for those with less than $35K vs. 53% among those with $75K+), the percentage of HDTV owners likely to purchase a Blu-ray disc player is only 14 percent
Current ownership of Blu-ray disc players among HDTV owners stands at 10 percent.
U.S. adults are more likely to purchase a Sony PlayStation 3 that plays Blu-ray discs and has Internet access for $399 (11%) or an original Blu-ray disc player without connectivity for the same price (10%) versus a new Blu-ray disc player with Internet for $500-$650 (4%)
Not surprisingly, the under 40 crowd is most likely to opt for the PlayStation 3 as their Blu-ray capable device of choice – fully 23 percent of those in the 30-39 age group are likely to purchase this device in the next year (compared to 14% likely to buy an original Blu-ray disc player or the new Blu-ray disc player with Internet connectivity 5%))
65% said NOT AT ALL LIKELY, and 54% of HDTV owners.
Where do numbers like this point to some sort of miraculous, huge growth any day now? I see 14% of the 35% of the HDTV penetration. That's some pretty small numbers, still.
Last edited by GreenMonkey; 07-03-08 at 06:10 PM.
07-03-08 | 06:13 PM
#110
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Originally Posted by TheBluRayReview
DVD might drag on for two more years like VHS did but by the end of 2012 Blu-Ray will be on top.
07-03-08 | 06:32 PM
#112
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Originally Posted by Draven
People didn't switch to CDs from cassettes primarily because the audio was better - they did it because they didn't have to rewind or flip the disc over and they could skip to specific tracks.
All the sources I've looked up when comparing DVD to VHS talk about quality and they don't say "Look at this shiny disc. Don't you want a shiny disc?". Everyone I worked with at the time DVD came out that bought a player bought it for the quality increase. This was at a time when we could buy the movies on VHS for half the price of the DVD version.
How many people can say they switched to DVD because it's shiny? Just saying j6pack did doesn't mean anything without some proof. I'd really like to see something because sources I look at show them selling it based on quality, not shininess.
Also, the DVD player doesn't occasionally eat tapes and require disassembly to get it out like a lot of VCRs.
If the tray doesn't open you get to open that bad boy up. I've had one computer drive do that to me and a 5 disc changer that I've had to open up to get the stuff out of.
You might also have to do it if you move a drive/player with the disc in it and it gets loose and things get jammed. That doesn't happen with VHS.
People didn't own huge VHS collections.
07-03-08 | 06:33 PM
#113
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Originally Posted by TheBluRayReview
So saids the Mayan calendar 
You do realize that Sony promising BD-Live is just them throwing up a portal page to download some trailers for other Sony movies/Blu-ray releases, right?
Last edited by The Man with the Golden Doujinshi; 07-03-08 at 06:35 PM.
07-03-08 | 06:36 PM
#114
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Originally Posted by Mister Peepers
I'm glad someone got that
07-03-08 | 07:15 PM
#115
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My complete conjecture: Blu-ray will continue to grow for 1 1/2 years at a good pace. It will not reach historical DVD sales totals/rates (and has not, IMO, regardless of the Video Business article). It will reach a critical point in the 2009 holiday season when it will show whether consumers will accept it as a defacto upgrade for DVD players, or will have judged it a nice to have and relegate it to a popular niche/gift/videophile product. If it goes niche, we'll see linear sales trends for it. Or, if it goes the other way, mass adoption, some steeper/log chart for growth for 2009-2012.
Neither path is a loser for anyone. 40-50 million blu-ray player households out there in the US or 250 million really shouldn't matter to most people people in the technology today. It may mean smaller selection or higher prices for discs, but I think the studios ALWAYS had that in mind. Why else create it unless you wanted more money (from higher prices, etc).
-beebs
Neither path is a loser for anyone. 40-50 million blu-ray player households out there in the US or 250 million really shouldn't matter to most people people in the technology today. It may mean smaller selection or higher prices for discs, but I think the studios ALWAYS had that in mind. Why else create it unless you wanted more money (from higher prices, etc).
-beebs
Last edited by beebs; 07-03-08 at 07:17 PM.
07-03-08 | 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by beebs
My complete conjecture: Blu-ray will continue to grow for 1 1/2 years at a good pace. It will not reach historical DVD sales totals/rates (and has not, IMO, regardless of the Video Business article). It will reach a critical point in the 2009 holiday season when it will show whether consumers will accept it as a defacto upgrade for DVD players, or will have judged it a nice to have and relegate it to a popular niche/gift/videophile product. If it goes niche, we'll see linear sales trends for it. Or, if it goes the other way, mass adoption, some steeper/log chart for growth for 2009-2012.
Neither path is a loser for anyone. 40-50 million blu-ray player households out there in the US or 250 million really shouldn't matter to most people people in the technology today. It may mean smaller selection or higher prices for discs, but I think the studios ALWAYS had that in mind. Why else create it unless you wanted more money (from higher prices, etc).
-beebs
Neither path is a loser for anyone. 40-50 million blu-ray player households out there in the US or 250 million really shouldn't matter to most people people in the technology today. It may mean smaller selection or higher prices for discs, but I think the studios ALWAYS had that in mind. Why else create it unless you wanted more money (from higher prices, etc).
-beebs
07-03-08 | 07:37 PM
#117
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
People didn't own huge VHS collections.
-beebs
07-03-08 | 07:41 PM
#118
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Originally Posted by beebs
Maybe not store bought tapes, but man lots of people had recorded movies. At $2/tape or less, you could record 2-3 movies off cable without ever buying a movie or visiting a video store. I had three dozen tapes with 100+ of my favorite movies on them. Perhaps maybe 10 store bought tapes when I got my first DVD player.
-beebs
-beebs
Well my understanding is it was used for annual crop cycles in fact the maths involved i think is flawed so it only goes up to that date for that reason
I'm not sure about The Man's status on blu-ray.
Last edited by The Man with the Golden Doujinshi; 07-03-08 at 07:47 PM.
07-03-08 | 08:01 PM
#119
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Originally Posted by Mister Peepers
I'm only talking about store bought tapes. They were less than $10 used at video stores so it wasn't that much.
The Man wouldn't want people to turn into mass panic mode so he tells people other reasons, like the one you mentioned. The Man doesn't want you to think for yourself.
I'm not sure about The Man's status on blu-ray.
The Man wouldn't want people to turn into mass panic mode so he tells people other reasons, like the one you mentioned. The Man doesn't want you to think for yourself.
I'm not sure about The Man's status on blu-ray.
07-03-08 | 10:10 PM
#120
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Originally Posted by Mister Peepers
There was a minority that owned a large VHS collection just as there's a minority that owns a large DVD collection. Just because you didn't collect movies until DVD didn't mean others didn't. For many it's about the love of movies, not the love of format. Counting myself, there were about 10-15 people at least in my squadron that had good sized collections. You could pick up used movies at the video store for under $10. Before I got stationed back in the US in 2000 I had a few hundred movies.
07-04-08 | 03:21 PM
#121
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While many of you here don't care about videogames it can't be ignored that the PS3 has Blu-Ray playback.This almost guarantees Blu-Ray will be a success. THe PS2 was a big help for DVD and I see the same thing happening here.
Just give it a couple years when the PS3 is around $200 and Blu-Ray will take off.
That being said I kinda like Blu-Ray where it is right now as having to look through only 10 releases a week is a lot easier than sifting through 50 DVD releases that have a bunch of direct to video horror flick garbage just to make sure you don't miss an old favorite you might have forgotten about.
Just give it a couple years when the PS3 is around $200 and Blu-Ray will take off.
That being said I kinda like Blu-Ray where it is right now as having to look through only 10 releases a week is a lot easier than sifting through 50 DVD releases that have a bunch of direct to video horror flick garbage just to make sure you don't miss an old favorite you might have forgotten about.
07-09-08 | 04:39 PM
#122
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From: Chicago, IL
Here is an interesting quote from Sony themselves, or at least the head of Sony's U.S. electronic division:
Looking ahead, you're only just getting into Blu-ray. How do you see the future penetration of the format compared with DVD?
Glasgow: That's a good question. DVD took 10 years to really penetrate. We're now in the second year of Blu-ray. My guess is it will probably happen a little quicker in terms of penetration. The pricing is already coming down more quickly than DVD came down. I don't think it will take as long as 10 years, but I don't think it will penetrate to the same percentage because there's a couple of conflicting forces. Certainly, people that want the best picture are going to want it, without a doubt. People that are OK with upconverting DVD players, which is somewhere close to 600, 650, maybe 700 (lines of resolution)--that's not a bad picture either. So a lot of people may be happy with an upconverting DVD player. And (Blu-ray) may not turn over, it may not penetrate to the same extent, because (DVD) was such a big medium change from tape.
But I see it being the major format. It's won the war, that's done. Now it's a matter of: Can we provide an exceptional experience? Can we provide a social part? And can we involve the overall community in, let's say, designing applets and coming up with new things that we can't even think of today?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cnet/2008070...10784399831677
Glasgow: That's a good question. DVD took 10 years to really penetrate. We're now in the second year of Blu-ray. My guess is it will probably happen a little quicker in terms of penetration. The pricing is already coming down more quickly than DVD came down. I don't think it will take as long as 10 years, but I don't think it will penetrate to the same percentage because there's a couple of conflicting forces. Certainly, people that want the best picture are going to want it, without a doubt. People that are OK with upconverting DVD players, which is somewhere close to 600, 650, maybe 700 (lines of resolution)--that's not a bad picture either. So a lot of people may be happy with an upconverting DVD player. And (Blu-ray) may not turn over, it may not penetrate to the same extent, because (DVD) was such a big medium change from tape.
But I see it being the major format. It's won the war, that's done. Now it's a matter of: Can we provide an exceptional experience? Can we provide a social part? And can we involve the overall community in, let's say, designing applets and coming up with new things that we can't even think of today?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cnet/2008070...10784399831677
07-09-08 | 05:02 PM
#123
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Originally Posted by dagon01
While many of you here don't care about videogames it can't be ignored that the PS3 has Blu-Ray playback.This almost guarantees Blu-Ray will be a success. THe PS2 was a big help for DVD and I see the same thing happening here.
07-09-08 | 05:21 PM
#124
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Originally Posted by kefrank
While I agree that the PS3 is a major reason for Blu-ray's current and likely future success, I think the contribution of the PS2 to the growth of DVD is almost universally overstated.
07-09-08 | 07:35 PM
#125
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Originally Posted by Glasgow
I don't think it will take as long as 10 years, but I don't think it will penetrate to the same percentage because there's a couple of conflicting forces.